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View Full Version : Updated Nate Silver Model: Ron Paul Has 40% Chance of Winning Iowa



RonPaulFanInGA
12-23-2011, 07:46 PM
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/iowa

Santorum's generous 2% chance is worthy of Fox News claiming he's doing well. :rolleyes:
pauliticalfan
12-23-2011, 07:47 PM
Barely above Robotney. Hit the phones!
unknown
12-23-2011, 07:47 PM
Does this have any significance and where were we before?
KramerDSP
12-23-2011, 08:01 PM
Does this have any significance and where were we before?

We were at 49% a few days ago, I believe.
fearthereaperx
12-23-2011, 08:01 PM
Hit Romney on the Family Dog Story! It's the only way to secure a win. With the help of the media, He's siphoning soft support from Independents/democrats away from us and we're gonna see the true figures next week in polling data.

If PPP has us higher or even flatlined next week I'll eat crow.
sailingaway
12-23-2011, 08:23 PM
We were at 49% a few days ago, I believe.

I thought it was above 50. Why is this? He got HIGHER in all the polls that came out. The prior versions of those polls had been lower for him.
RonPaulFanInGA
12-23-2011, 08:24 PM
We were at 49% a few days ago, I believe.

Rombot is rising, Paul isn't declining.
Rudeman
12-23-2011, 08:57 PM
They have the polls they look at and how much they weigh each one on the bottom if anyone wants to look at them. I think the Rassmussen poll is probably the reason for the drop, that and the polls weighed the most have Paul with only a 1% lead as opposed to the previous few polls that had Paul with 3 or more % points ahead.