Iowa Caucus weather (meteorologist's take)

[CTRattlesnake]

Hey guys. Just thought i'd put my 2 cents in on this one. As a meteorologist, along with my normal duties, i've been keeping a close eye on the forecast in Iowa for our Dr. Paul.


We are currently in a la-nina regime coupled with a strong +AO/NAO. What this means is that the general pattern over the united states favors a ridge over the east coast, and more storms through the Ohio valley/midwest. That being said, due to the unusually strong nature of the arctic vortex, there has been a lack of cold air infiltrating the CONUS. This does not look to change significantly by the time the caucus rolls around, zonal flow should still be generally in control of the country.

In terms of specifics, it is simply too far away to make any substantial conclusions. January 3rd is 270 hours away, and most computer models do not go past 240. Only the american model (GFS) has forecasts for that far out, and its solutions change run to run as 1/3 is still, very far away.


I'll try to keep this thread bumped with any updates in terms of possible synoptic scale weather, but the general long-wave pattern most likely wont change from what I've highlighted above.

[V3n]

Thanks for the professional POV. Very cool!

[bluesc]

I did not understand a word you just said.

+rep for the effort though.

[zerosdontcount]

Oh yes the CONUS..... ummm just let me know if it snows ! Thanks for your report, hope to hear more as time goes on.

[opinionatedfool]

+rep

[flybeech]

Fox News reported that if bad weather hits Iowa, Iowans will stay in their warm homes that day. I dunno. I think Iowans are no strangers to bitter cold, snow and ice and NOTHING will keep a Paulie from voting that day.

[malkusm]

Oh yes the CONUS..... ummm just let me know if it snows ! Thanks for your report, hope to hear more as time goes on.

CONUS = Continental U.S.

But I'm intrigued to know what "a strong +AO/NAO" means :p

[BSU kid]

+rep

Awesome analysis, I knew the long range GFS would be running for the caucus by now...but at this point its pretty unreliable. I look forward to seeing the CMC as well as the NAM as we get closer to the caucuses, maybe there will be a better consensus by then. Anyways nice analysis, please keep this updated.

[CTRattlesnake]

CONUS = Continental U.S.

But I'm intrigued to know what "a strong +AO/NAO" means :p

The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are two climatic oscillations over the arctic and portions of Greenland. A +AO/NAO is defined by lower heights (colder temps) over the arctic and subsequent warmer air over the mid latitudes. A -AO/NAO is the exact opposite and more commonly associated with winter weather. The winter of 2010-11 featured a very -NAO/AO tandem and we had a ton of snow in the northeast. This year, because all the cold air has been trapped up north in a stronger polar vortex, we've seen little in the way of wintry weather thus far. When the PV is stronger, the flow over the mid latitudes tends to be more zonal, and cold air is not able to advect down south.

The two are regulated by solar activity and the state of the stratosphere, but thats a bit more complicated. :)

[GunnyFreedom]

CONUS = Continental U.S.

But I'm intrigued to know what "a strong +AO/NAO" means :p

This was my only mystery too, actually. I didn't know that la nina contributed to the arctic vortex, or that an extremely strong one could basically keep winter out of CONUS :p

I love learning stuff, actually. :D

[RonPauledbyYoutube]

LMAO, dude this is the English version of the Forum. What language is that??? :confused:

We don't speak that language!!!

[malkusm]

The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are two climatic oscillations over the arctic and portions of Greenland. A +AO/NAO is defined by lower heights (colder temps) over the arctic and subsequent warmer air over the mid latitudes. A -AO/NAO is the exact opposite and more commonly associated with winter weather. The winter of 2010-11 featured a very -NAO/AO tandem and we had a ton of snow in the northeast. This year, because all the cold air has been trapped up north in a stronger polar vortex, we've seen little in the way of wintry weather thus far. When the PV is stronger, the flow over the mid latitudes tends to be more zonal, and cold air is not able to advect down south.

The two are regulated by solar activity and the state of the stratosphere, but thats a bit more complicated. :)

+rep, fascinating. I wanted to be a meteorologist when I was a kid actually :D

[GunnyFreedom]

The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are two climatic oscillations over the arctic and portions of Greenland. A +AO/NAO is defined by lower heights (colder temps) over the arctic and subsequent warmer air over the mid latitudes. A -AO/NAO is the exact opposite and more commonly associated with winter weather. The winter of 2010-11 featured a very -NAO/AO tandem and we had a ton of snow in the northeast. This year, because all the cold air has been trapped up north in a stronger polar vortex, we've seen little in the way of wintry weather thus far. When the PV is stronger, the flow over the mid latitudes tends to be more zonal, and cold air is not able to advect down south.

The two are regulated by solar activity and the state of the stratosphere, but thats a bit more complicated. :)

OK so not la nina. the la nina brings more storms, but the -AO/NAO is what brings the colder temps. Being that conditions are set by solar activity and state of the stratosphere, I wouldn't expect +AO/NAO and -AO/NAO conditions to flux very much except maybe quarters to a year freq.

[KingNothing]

The arctic vortex won't matter one way or another due to the unusually strong nature of the Ron Paul vortex!


STORMIN' THE CAUCUS, BITCHEZ!

[CTRattlesnake]

This was my only mystery too, actually. I didn't know that la nina contributed to the arctic vortex, or that an extremely strong one could basically keep winter out of CONUS :p

I love learning stuff, actually. :D

Well, a la nina affects tropical convection which consequently favors certain longwave patterns over the US. For example, tropical convection over the dateline is usually suppressed during a nina episode. Dateline convection is usually conducive of a colder/snowier northeast. At the same time, a nina tends to prop up a southeast ridge in the CONUS. This feature is only further emphasized by the AO/NAO

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/gid/LaNina(2).png

[Adam West]

I'm confused. Please elaborate... Will you freeze your tits off?

[CTRattlesnake]

I'm confused. Please elaborate... Will you freeze your tits off?

most likely....no

[Adam West]

most likely....no

Is that conclusive? LOL

[GunnyFreedom]

Well, a la nina affects tropical convection which consequently favors certain longwave patterns over the US. For example, tropical convection over the dateline is usually suppressed during a nina episode. Dateline convection is usually conducive of a colder/snowier northeast. At the same time, a nina tends to prop up a southeast ridge in the CONUS. This feature is only further emphasized by the AO/NAO

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/gid/LaNina(2).png

LOL the coolest thing is that I understood that :p

but then I have also always been fascinated with meteorology. Ever since they opened up the NOAA satts online for anybody who wants to to browse, I have focused a lot of my attention on watching how weather works. One hurricane in particular, forget which one but pretty sure it was an "I" storm, showed me a great deal of clarity in function.

So every odd long and short is against an Iowa blizzard. Doesn't make it impossible, but ridiculously improbable. We could always try and convince Dairy Queen to vomit on the state... :p

Thanks for all the great info!

[CTRattlesnake]

Is that conclusive? LOL

Weather can always change, but right now conditions dont look favorable for bitter cold....

[andrew1229649]

Sounds about right CTRattlesnake
This is the latest GFS model run, take it with a grain of salt b/c it is so far out. This is AM http://tinyurl.com/7g6x78s This is PM http://tinyurl.com/8y3wx7l Ill give you a run down, too warm, not enough precip. This is always subject to change since it is so far out though.

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

+rep, fascinating. I wanted to be a meteorologist when I was a kid actually :D

So did I actually... I wanted to be a meteorologist that worked for NASA.

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

Is anyone else somewhat comforted to know that when we all go Galt we will have our own meterologist?

[andrew1229649]

All you need is a strong ULL and it will create it's own cold air, that's what we pray for here in the south.

[Adam West]

Weather can always change, but right now conditions dont look favorable for bitter cold....

Thank you kindly. Predicting weather is not an exact science.

Let it snow-let it snow-let it snow- let it snow...

[Suzu]

Weather can always change, but right now conditions dont look favorable for bitter cold....
You can have the bitter cold. But how about an ice storm? :toady:

[CTRattlesnake]

December 28th----Update



We're now at the time where the general pattern over Iowa can start to be pinned down. Specifics will take a little while longer to figure out, but as of right now, heres what it looks like.



On January 1st, a low pressure system will cut up into the northern parts of michigan before exiting into canada. Following this, a transient, weak ridge will attempt to push up into the eastern portions of Quebec and canadian maritime provinces. Consequently, a boatload of arctic air, previously trapped in canada will be dumped down into the central and eastern united states for our first arctic outbreak of the year.

However, given the trough orientation, by the time January 3rd rolls around, Iowa will be positioned on the backside of the trough with the brunt of the cold over the northeast. So, as of right now, expect dry and relatively seasonal conditions over Iowa for the caucus. If the trough is a bit slower in its evolution, expect below average temperatures, but given the transient nature of a nina pattern and no real downstream blocking, this solution is not feasible at the time.

It should also be noted that temperatures will be higher and even slightly above average over the SW portions of the state, while the NE will be cooler.

[GunnyFreedom]

see, I like this. I want to shove it into the Huckster's face. If I could have anything I wanted, I'd want Iowa to be 70 degrees with barely a breeze and not a cloud in the sky and still run away with 60% of the vote. Huck you you huckster! :D

[ronpaulfollower999]

Woohoo! Ron Paul meteorologists ftw!

Spending a lot of time on weather forums during hurricane season, I completely understood the OP. :p

[Darthbrooklyn]

see, I like this. I want to shove it into the Huckster's face. If I could have anything I wanted, I'd want Iowa to be 70 degrees with barely a breeze and not a cloud in the sky and still run away with 60% of the vote. Huck you you huckster! :D

All Ron Paul supporters should be showing up to the caucus wearing Board Shorts, zinc on their nose, flip flops, and tshirts, while carrying inflatable palm trees.. that say.. "Go F*** yourself Huckabee"

[HOLLYWOOD]

Appears Mild and Clear through Tuesday, January 3rd throughout Iowa.

LINK: http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conusLoop.php#tabs

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a361/mzcmdr/Iowa_Tuesday_Weather.png