We Ask America Iowa Poll - Paul in 1st with 19%

[mwkaufman]

We Ask America Iowa 12/20

19% Paul
18% Romney
16% Gingrich
15% Bachmann
11% Perry
9% Santorum
4% Huntsman

Source (http://weaskamerica.com/2011/12/21/down-the-newt-chute/)

Paul up 5% from their last poll in early December.

Some strange things, for example, Paul at 18% with 18-24 and at 14% with 65+. One of those is traditionally not a group where Paul polls under his averages.

[Brett85]

Is this poll even included in the RCP average?

[parocks]

bachmann 50% 18-24?

[mwkaufman]

Is this poll even included in the RCP average?

None of the others have, but it is used in Nate Silver's Iowa forecasting, and with this and the Rasmussen poll being the two most recent, his system now projects Romney as the victor by two tenths of one percent. Nate Silver did call them a conservative pollster when discussing Wisconsin polls, so it's possible that gives them an anti-Paul or pro-Bachmann slant.

[DRV45N05]

bachmann 50% 18-24?

Yeah, they must have had an abnormally small sample size of 18-24. (And the next age group, as well.)

This polls is a little weird.

[moderate libertarian]

RCP average has Ron Paul ahead of all:

Poll Date Sample Paul Romney Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Cain Spread
RCP Average 12/8 - 12/19 -- 23.8 20.3 17.3 11.8 8.3 7.0 3.0 -- Paul +3.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html


Drudge is just headlining single Rasmussen poll, other latest poll has Paul ahead at 28% in Iowa:

Latest Polls
Iowa President
ISU/Gazette/KCRG
More IA Polls »
Paul 28
Romney 18
Gingrich 25
Perry 11
Bachmann 7
Santorum 5
Huntsman 0
Cain 0
Paul +3.0


Iowa President
Rasmussen Reports
More IA Polls »
Paul 20
Romney 25
Gingrich 17
Perry 10
Bachmann 6
Santorum 10
Huntsman 4
Cain
Romney +5.0

Romney could be gainaing some ground , Paul is strong in Iowa but his supporters should not get complacent.

[parocks]

Well, all of this groups Iowa Polls have had Bachmann way ahead with the youngest groups. This is the 4th one they've done with the crosstabs. She was at 54% in one of the earlier polls

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/11/29/tracking-iowa/ -november 29 - the strangest - 54%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_IA_1218.pdf - this one had Bachmann with 0% of 18-29
the recent PPP had Paul at 38% and Bachmann at 10% of 18-29
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/december/121211Caucus_Hawkeye_Poll_topline.pdf - this one has Bachmann with 3.3 18-34

[vechorik]

Just posted an email from Bachmann. She's saying she's "only four points behind Ron Paul for first place in Iowa!"
It's a fundraising email.

[Epic]

Bachmann unusually high.

But, again, confirmation that we are not running away with this thing.

Nose to the grindstone.

[tremendoustie]

Yeah, these numbers and crosstabs are bizzare. Frankly I don't believe this one. No way are Bachmann and Perry that high. No way does Bachmann have 50% among young people. No was is Paul doing as well among the elderly as the young.