Rasmussen Reports for Iowa has Ron at 2nd at 20%, behind Romney's 25%

[TomtheTinker]

Rasmussen Reports 12/19 - 12/19 750 LV Iowa

Romney-25

Paul-20

Newt-17

Perry-10

Santorum-10

Bachmann-6

Huntsman-4

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

[Aratus]

nationally?

[LibertyPhanatic]

^ Iowa

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

[joshnorris14]

Iowa

[IndianaPolitico]

Iowa. Both Romney and Paul went up by 2 points.

[jsem]

I don't see how Newt is at 17, I've never trusted Rasmussen anyway.

[1836]

New Iowa poll HERE: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

This survey has Ron Paul and Mitt Romney both up 2 points from the last survey they did, last week.

This is a poll of 750 "likely caucus participants" with margin of error plus or minus 4 points.

Full results:
Romney 25%
Paul 20%
Gingrich 17%
Perry 10%
Santorum 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 4%
Not sure 8%
Some other 1%

[smithtg]

the numbers from 12/13 were 18/23/20 RP/rom/newt

[axlr]

That asshole Carl Cameron just reported this on Faux News. He said it so smug.
I really do despise him. He worships the ground Mitt walks on.

[69360]

Last minute Rasmussen mittens pump?

[Original_Intent]

Their lies will be exposed in less than two weeks.

[TheDriver]

In Fox News' eyes, the only thing better than a Rasmussen poll, is a poll that omitted Ron Paul completely.

[tremendoustie]

Ouch -- well, rasmussen was always the worst.

[AggieforPaul]

I hope this is an outlier, and not newsletter fallout.

[LatinsforPaul]

For Rasmussen, I would say 20% is good for us especially for just Republican voters.

[braane]

Let's use it for motivation.

[freejack]

I hope this is an outlier, and not newsletter fallout.

He went up 2%. The newsletter didn't hurt him. As others have mentioned, Rasmussen always has Ron lower.

[dcjones]

Yea and RCP needs to update the Iowa numbers with this poll that they left out:

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Vote-2012-Ron-Paul-Takes-Lead-in-KCRGGazette-Poll-135977303.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Has RP 3 points above Gingrich

RP @ 28
Gingrich @ 25
Mitt @ 18

[bluesc]

I hope this is an outlier, and not newsletter fallout.

Ron gained since the last Rasmussen poll. Also, other polls that have come out since the big newsletter push have shown Ron at the top. Honestly, I don't think there will be any fallout from the newsletters.

[Inkblots]

Gosh, when does the "pollster accuracy" window - the period before the election when pollster results are compared against the voting results to determine their accuracy - start? I have to believe that Rasmussen will stop "conditioning" their samples when there's proverbial money on the line.

[Andrew Ryan]

Fox news showing this again for the second time in the last 15-20 min.

[bluesc]

Yea and RCP needs to update the Iowa numbers with this poll that they left out:

Has RP 3 points above Gingrich

RP @ 28
Gingrich @ 25
Mitt @ 18

They already did. It was started before the other Iowa polls, so it's further down the list.

[SchleckBros]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

[UtahApocalypse]

Yea and RCP needs to update the Iowa numbers with this poll that they left out:

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Vote-2012-Ron-Paul-Takes-Lead-in-KCRGGazette-Poll-135977303.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Has RP 3 points above Gingrich

RP @ 28
Gingrich @ 25
Mitt @ 18

RCP has had the KRCG poll added all day today

[bluesc]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

No it's not. He has gained since the last Rasmussen poll. Rasmussen ALWAYS his Ron lower than other pollsters.

[Jeremy]

For Rasmussen, I would say 20% is good for us especially for just Republican voters.
"likely caucus participants"

[Andrew Ryan]

Rasmussen also says Ron Paul is the weakest candidate against Obama :rolleyes:

[Inkblots]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

As previous posters pointed out, this is an improvement in Paul's numbers from the previous Rasmussen poll. If you're looking for evidence of Paul losing momentum, this poll ain't it.

[Aratus]

ron paul's gain in this poll is a given

[A. Havnes]

What? Romney is surging?

I have a stupid question, but why is Rasmussen more unreliable than the other polls? I know that the other polls have Ron on top, but why is this one different? Who owns it?

[Blue]

We're leading in every poll lately besides this one. I don't believe it.

[bluesc]

This is encouraging.


Among those who say they are certain to participate in the caucus, Romney and Paul are essentially even. As always in a caucus, the organizational effort to get identified supporters to show up on January 3 is likely to determine the outcome.

[amonasro]

Among those who say they are certain to participate in the caucus, Romney and Paul are essentially even. As always in a caucus, the organizational effort to get identified supporters to show up on January 3 is likely to determine the outcome.

Good news right there. This poll also shows that the newsletters attacks are not working. Overall I'm happy with the result.

[Aratus]

their sampling approach has not changed.
doctor ron paul is gaining in all the polls.

[asurfaholic]

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.


Im wondering this too...

[RonPaul101.com]

I think this is the best thing that could happen to us; keep us hungry for the win. I can not believe my eyes and ears when I recently talk to Paul supporters who are syaing focus on NH, Iowa is already ours (and yes, I have read and heard that, no BS.) Paul has never won a state, so we should never look past this for the next one, even if we were leading by 10 points on average.

Plus if our "low poll" numbers have us at 20%, that means we CAN do this, and must.

[bluesc]

Im wondering this too...

This answers it:


Romney leads with Gingrich in second among those who consider themselves Republicans. Paul has a wide lead among non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucuses.

[Inkblots]

What? Romney is surging?

I have a stupid question, but why is Rasmussen more unreliable than the other polls? I know that the other polls have Ron on top, but why is this one different? Who owns it?

To answer your questions, in order:
- No more than Paul is; they're both up from Ras' previous poll
- They use their own proprietary turnout model to determine who is a "likely voter"; many polling firms do this, and part of the "art" of polling is having a more predictive model than the next fellow. Obviously, Ras tends to skew toward the results that the GOP establishment wants to see, and whether this "house effect" is deliberate or not I'll leave to better minds than myself to speculate upon
- Unsurprisingly, Scott Rasmussen owns Rasmussen Reports

[PhineasFinn]

These polls indicate that Iowa is a race between Romney and Paul. They are a snapshot into the present that changes with the wind. I'm pretty sure our exasperated efforts put into the Iowa effort will not go in vein, but we must remember the Iowa voters that still consider Paul a kook.

I don't know. I want to be optimistic but can't shake my realism.

[TomtheTinker]

I don't understand why people are disappointed by these results..1st-2nd is a damn good place to be 13 days before the contest.

[Chester Copperpot]

These polls indicate that Iowa is a race between Romney and Paul. They are a snapshot into the present that changes with the wind. I'm pretty sure our exasperated efforts put into the Iowa effort will not go in vein, but we must remember the Iowa voters that still consider Paul a kook.

I don't know. I want to be optimistic but can't shake my realism.

lead, follow, or get out of the way my man.

[hazek]

It's too soon to know if their full blown attack is working or not. I suspect we'll know for sure next Monday.

[Inkblots]

Duplicate thread is duplicate: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?340713-Rasmussen-Reports-for-Iowa-has-Ron-at-2nd-at-20-behind-Romney-s-25

[eugenekop]

Scott Rasmussen is a libertarian, so he definitely doesn't do this on purpose (not that I think any reliable pollster messes with the score on purpose).

[bluesc]

These polls indicate that Iowa is a race between Romney and Paul. They are a snapshot into the present that changes with the wind. I'm pretty sure our exasperated efforts put into the Iowa effort will not go in vein, but we must remember the Iowa voters that still consider Paul a kook.

I don't know. I want to be optimistic but can't shake my realism.

Iowa voters see Ron more favorably than most of the other candidates. Welcome to reality: When Ron campaigns in a state, the people love him.

[MRoCkEd]

Let's use it for motivation.
+ 1
Shows us we can't be complacent

Scott Rasmussen is a libertarian
He is?

[bluesc]

Scott Rasmussen is a libertarian, so he definitely doesn't do this on purpose (not that I think any reliable pollster messes with the score on purpose).

Koch brothers, Neal Boortz, Sean frickin' Hannity, any 14 year old that wants pot legalized. Come on, there are millions of self described "libertarians", but they are not even close.

[Badger Paul]

Actually this is good because Rasmussen skews heavily Republican compared to other polls.

[Liberty74]

Mitt goes up 2

Ron goes up 2

Basically nothing has changed since the last Rasmussen poll released. Nothing to get worried about.

[Aratus]

does mitt romney tend to ceiling at 25% and is newt dropping fast as his
former supporters spin off to other candidates? is vanderplaats responsible
for bachmann and santorum being at 10% both and if either one quits after
the caucuses, is this too late to impact new hampshire? keep an eye on jon!

[Crotale]

Rupert Murdoch is a libertarian according Wikipedia. :rolleyes:

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Their lies will be exposed in less than two weeks.

This. In two weeks, we'll see who's really in first.

Every single time that there is a good news poll for Ron Paul, you can count on Rasmussen to put a one-day poll out the following day claiming otherwise, but even Rasmussen has Paul going up two.

[james1906]

All the pundits are saying to look at 2nd and 3rd place in Iowa, so this is great news!

[The Midnight Ride]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

I honestly have not seen "mainstream" articles on this. No one watches daytime news unless it is during lunch break. There have been no stories in the "major" news sites (CNN, FOX, NYTimes, etc.) This story has not blown up because, while anecdotal, I haven't heard one casual political observer mention this to me yet. Trust me, I would hear about it because many I know are heavily weighing supporting Paul over Obama. I have heard of his position on the War on Drugs and it's affect on minorities in the last few days on several occasions - not this regurgitated news. Note: I am not saying this won't become an issue. It is all they have on him. The fact that there are no debates between now and Iowa is the greatest thing we could ask for. Those are watched and written up.

Remember, Paul and Romney when using their MoE bars are essentially still tied. This is statistical noise. Ignore it. There are more important things we can be doing than stressing out over the lone outlier poll in the last two weeks.

[cdc482]

The phone from home should let us phone Iowa now.

[Darthbrooklyn]

Jan 3 cant come fast enough for me...

[SchleckBros]

Since Novermber there have been 21 polls. All having either Cain, Gingrich, or Paul with the lead. The only two polls that have had Romney in the lead is Rasmussen.

[cdc482]

Romney is the only one who might beat Paul in Iowa. This poll has me very worried.

[Southron]

Romney is the only one who might beat Paul in Iowa. This poll has me very worried.

There has been a big push from neocon writers and commentators towards Romney.

[fletcher]

From the last election: Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

[gls]

All the pundits are saying to look at 2nd and 3rd place in Iowa, so this is great news!

lol

[Darthbrooklyn]

Romney isnt winning Iowa.. add the independents and democrats switching over, plus people willing to spend the evening at the polling stations makes me think that Paul has a better then good shot at this

[FA.Hayek]

i kinda like the second place, takes some heat off us! keep on pumping that rasmussen poll fox!

[mwkaufman]

Since Novermber there have been 21 polls. All having either Cain, Gingrich, or Paul with the lead. The only two polls that have had Romney in the lead is Rasmussen.

And those same two polls are the only ones which have Romney above 20%. At 23% and 25%, so Rasmussen is seeing broader Romney support than anyone else.

[firemoth]

From NYTimes ("Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly"):

"Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples."

If we are at 20% from all land-lines and heavily biased toward Republicans, we are in *great* shape.

[Aratus]

if rasmussen's sampling mechanism is picking up on mitt insted of newt as doctor ron gains...?

[Aratus]

are we close to a ronslide if the gain is continual and mitt is the one with a ceiling in iowa?

[HOLLYWOOD]

Last minute Rasmussen mittens pump? YOU BETCHA!


Their lies will be exposed in less than two weeks.AMEN!


Ouch -- well, rasmussen was always the worst.SPEAK THE TRUTH BROTHER!


Let's use it for motivation.Scott Rasmussen is getting hit/discredited on his "Tweets" releasing this garbage Poll to Twitter... ;)


We're leading in every poll lately besides this one. I don't believe it.Imagine that... Call the Bitch out.


Scott Rasmussen is a libertarian, so he definitely doesn't do this on purpose (not that I think any reliable pollster messes with the score on purpose).A Corporatist Neocon Libertarian... is there such a thing?

[r3volution]

"run like your 10 points behind" - Ron Paul


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT2dlXikuCY

[puppetmaster]

There sure are a bunch of posters that I do not trust here lately.

[Carole]

Perfect timing by Rasmussen, just after the poll that puts RP ahead in first. :D

[blazeKing]

I view this as a positive thing. First, this is an outlier. Second, this keeps us from getting too comfortable in Iowa. Third, this helps tamp down expectations for Ron Paul in Iowa and increases them for Romney. So when Ron Paul wins by what could be a lot, it will be bigger news.

[bluesc]

Perfect timing by Rasmussen, just after the poll that puts RP ahead in first. :D

He's always waiting in the shadows for the order.

[jkob]

they're pushing this poll hard

top of drudge now

[DRV45N05]

This poll is pretty bogus. Rasmussen is probably figuring in less Independents and Democrats. As Rasmussen states:


Paul has a wide lead among non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucuses.

Also, this poll has Bachmann at only 6%. I think it's pretty stupid to assert that she is that low right now.

[Carole]

:D :rolleyes:

[Maximus]

If Rasmussen has us at 20% and rising, I'm very happy with that. He always short changes Dr. Paul.

[FSP-Rebel]

they're pushing this poll hard

top of drudge now
I see why Rasmussen keeps Paul down as much as possible in national polls to limit him surging but they aren't doing the establishment any favors downplaying support in IA. More help to us if we come out of IA with a shock rather than an expected win befitting their belittling of the IA caucus.

[IDefendThePlatform]

Iowa voters see Ron more favorably than most of the other candidates. Welcome to reality: When Ron campaigns in a state, the people love him.

+1

[Liberty74]

they're pushing this poll hard

top of drudge now

The fake conservative media whores will no doubt push this but will fail to point out that Romney and Paul have risen equally by 2 points while Newt has tanked by 15 points from just a month ago. Newton Leroy is DONE. When you read the Rasmussen poll vs. the Drudge headline, it's totally different than the headline is implying - Paul is not losing ground!

And what is this about Bachmann being asked to withdraw from the race? By whom?

[unknown]

I'm pretty sure our exasperated efforts put into the Iowa effort will not go in vein, but we must remember the Iowa voters that still consider Paul a kook.

Youre making this statement based on what exactly?

[bluesc]

they're pushing this poll hard

top of drudge now

Lol. The poll that had Ron in the lead was at the bottom of the right hand column earlier. Completely gone now.

[DRV45N05]

Here's the last Rasmussen poll in Iowa from 2008:

Huckabee 28
Romney 27
McCain 14
Thompson 8
Giluliani 8
Paul 6

And the election results:

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13.1%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 3.5%

So he underpolled Huckabee by about 6.5%, and overpolled Romney by about 2%.

Nothing to worry about.

[Liberty74]

Rasmussen also says Ron Paul is the weakest candidate against Obama :rolleyes:

No, that is a bogus question asking how the voters "felt" about a candidate going up against Obama. It has no bearing on how someone will vote in Iowa or nationally. The polling data of each candidate against Obama shows that Paul is second strongest despite how people felt.

[mwkaufman]

So he underpolled Huckabee by about 6.5%, and overpolled Romney by about 2%.

Nothing to worry about.

Well he also underpolled Paul by 4%, so if you take 2% off Romney, and add 4% to Paul, you get 24% Paul, 23% Romney. :p

[Agorism]

Why do we poll poorly in his polls?

[JTforRP]

Fuck Rasmussen's fat face.

[archangel689]

I really think they're going to try to rig the caccuses. I think they're going to cheat to make ron lose.

[ross11988]

I really think they're going to try to rig the caccuses. I think they're going to cheat to make ron lose.

Then phone from home and find as many voters do that they can't rig the election

[69360]

I really think they're going to try to rig the caccuses. I think they're going to cheat to make ron lose.

Relax, it's not possible to rig a caucus. Every precinct has a winner and everyone present will know who won.

[sailingaway]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

Santorum has 10% but they make a huge deal of how that is 19 or so percent of the evangelical vote. Probably because they are known to turn out. But it is still 10% overall.

But Romney is ahead and he has a great organization, you can't discount it like Gingrich's. We need to hit the phones!!

(PS Ron is two points higher than in the last Rasmussen poll, still.)

here is another analysis Rasmussen did yesterday: Romney, Paul and a Game of Musical Chairs in Iowa http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/romney_paul_and_a_game_of_musical_chairs_in_iowa

[archangel689]

They've found a way to screw us every step of the way. If they don't try to screw with the results I will be very surprised. Lots of talk about what happened to Pat Buchanan

[ross11988]

Relax, it's not possible to rig a caucus. Every precinct has a winner and everyone present will know who won.

Exactly

[squirekyle]

Let's use it for motivation.

Yes, let's do that. I'm finally joining the Phone From Home today, I found a Headset with/ a mic for Skype. http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

[sailingaway]

Exactly

they are talking about taking extraordinary steps to keep it from being hacked, though. I think Ron's precinct captains should separately report back individual caucus totals.

[Agorism]

There are no polls on thursday or fri and the weekend for the most part.

Rasmussen releases his polls late wednesday so that his polls are always the last poll in the new cycle for the rest of the week and the talk shows.

[sailingaway]

There are no polls on thursday or fri and the weekend for the most part.

Rasmussen releases his polls late wednesday so that his polls are always the last poll in the new cycle for the rest of the week and the talk shows.

Ron still went UP in the RCP Iowa average, though, because it replaced an even lower one for him by Rasmussen: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html


RCP Average 12/8 - 12/19 -- Paul 23.8 Romney 20.3 Gingrich 17.3 Perry 11.8 Bachmann 8.3 Santorum 7.0 Huntsman 3.0- Paul +3.5

So we have to see where PPP comes out from its polling this week.

I will say that we are now within the two week range where pollsters are rated. But Ron over achieved his Rasmussen polling last time, for what it is worth.

[69360]

they are talking about taking extraordinary steps to keep it from being hacked, though. I think Ron's precinct captains should separately report back individual caucus totals.

I think they can cover all the precincts. There's 1700 right? There will be what 500 college kids in IA, that leaves 1200 more to cover. The campaign only needs one person at each location.

People are getting really worked up with being first in the polls I. I have a feeling there will be tons of volunteers in IA. I've even been kicking around the idea of driving out there, I don't want to sit home and miss out on history unfolding. I don't think it would be that hard to have one observer at each location.

[sailingaway]

I think they can cover all the precincts. There's 1700 right? There will be what 500 college kids in IA, that leaves 1200 more to cover. The campaign only needs one person at each location.

People are getting really worked up with being first in the polls I. I have a feeling there will be tons of volunteers in IA. I've even been kicking around the idea of driving out there, I don't want to sit home and miss out on history unfolding. I don't think it would be that hard to have one observer at each location.

That sounds reasonable to me, and the GOP should appreciate it, they are really worried about the hacking, it sounds like.

[tmg19103]

Ras does NOT call cell phones.

Nuff said.

[mwkaufman]

(PS Ron is two points higher than in the last Rasmussen poll, still.)

So Paul is up two points in the last week, not that big a deal. The big deal is he's been up two points in the last week, for five straight weeks. In the Rasmussen 11/15 poll he was at 10%. If he can keep this trend up, and it seems likely with Paul finally earning some media thanks to his surging poll numbers, he'll do very well in Iowa.

[febo]

Some stern denial of reality on display here.
the poll could well be correct - we live in an age of increasing volatility.
Next week RP could be in the lead again.
And look at the positive side of this poll - it's confirming that 1st or 2nd is very very likely.

[Agorism]

So we have to see where PPP comes out from its polling this week.


edit- no polling over weekend. they poll next week

[bronxboy10]

Drudge Report: Romney 25%, Paul 20%, Gingrich 17%

Main Headline

:rolleyes:

[Epic]

1. Take polls seriously. Don't necessarily denigrate polls that don't show us doing well.
2. It's very possible Ron Paul has been dinged by the focus on Iran, "hating muslims", newsletters, etc.

We need to work harder to win Iowa.

[Student Of Paulism]

I remember Jon Stewart was on Oreilly a while ago, and Bill was talking about a Rasmussen Poll and i remember Jon saying 'Oh yea, because we all know how accurate Rasmussen is', as he rolled his eyes lol.

[SilentBull]

I'm glad this came out. The more they ignore Ron Paul in the next two weeks the better. Let them pretend Romney is the one to beat all they want.

[FA.Hayek]

I'm glad this came out. The more they ignore Ron Paul in the next two weeks the better. Let them pretend Romney is the one to beat all they want.

yup

[SpicyTurkey]

The media wall is beginning to crumble. I'm going to quote Reagan and say, "Tear down this wall".

[HOLLYWOOD]

Drudge Report: Romney 25%, Paul 20%, Gingrich 17%

Main Headline :rolleyes:SO Drudge like the establishment are choosing the Manhattan Neocon right slanting Rasmussen poll, over the loacl Iowan poll results conducted by 3 separate entities.

[RileyE104]

I see this as good... Rasmussen's last poll had Dr. Paul in third with 18% of the vote... Being in second with 20% is certainly an improvement, especially considering this polling company.

[USAFCapt]

How is Perry back up at 10%...don't voters know he's inept?

[HarryBrowneLives]

Don't get too up or down on any poll right now. They'll be a poll almost every day until the 3rd. All we know for sure is that we're in contention. For example: The last Rasmussen poll done on the Rand/Grayson senate primary a week before showed Rand +10%. He went on the next week to win by 25%.

What we need to focus on is this. 1. Phone from home volunteers identifying voters for the campaign 2. Super brocure project. 3. On the ground and door to door if possible 4. Organizing with getting people to the polls in IA 5. Countering the Establishment/MSM spin meatheads on the air and online.

Now, I'm doing number 2 and number 5. Next week will also be doing #1.:)

[McDermit]

Rasmussen always has RP lower than any other poll. No biggie.