New national poll... Ron at 15%!

[realtonygoodwin]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/gingrich-romney-go-to-a-tie-more-see-obama-as-competitive/


." More immediate is the GOP race, whose tumult continues unabated. Gingrich, the latest non-Romney to rush ahead, has 30 percent support for the nomination among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Romney has an identical 30 percent, matching his July high in ABC/Post polls this cycle. Ron Paul has 15 percent, with all others in the single digits.

[muh_roads]

Safe to say we are definitely in 3rd nationally and continuing to rise. People around the country are starting to believe Paul can do it as they hear positive Iowa and NH numbers.

[tremendoustie]

Awesome!

[Epic]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LyTBM42qPIU

It's not impossible...

[cero]

Critical mass reached hold on tight guys!

[Epic]

30/30/15 matches CNN national numbers 28/28/14...

With 75% allocated to 3 people, a clear top tier has emerged.

[Napolitanic Wars]

15-18 percent is the tipping point.

[Agorism]

Why only 11% with gallup then?

[Epic]

Is PPP national also coming out like now?

[mport1]

WOW! What an amazing few days of news! Incredible!

[RPit]

This is definitely good news. We're seeing consistent growth. All we need to do is spread the word and have a win in Iowa and a strong showing or a win NH and these numbers will automatically move up closer to or past 20%.

[sailingaway]

Romney 30
Gingrich 30
Paul 15
Perry 7
Bachmann 7



http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1132a2The2012Election.pdf

[RDM]

Why only 11% with gallup then?

Different methodology used with poll companies. That's why you factor in margin of error.

[Epic]

As in Iowa, Paul also loses support for his isolationist views; 45 percent see his opposition to U.S. military intervention as a major negative.

omg wtf isolationist!

[Karsten]

There's no reason we can't double our support with Iowa and New Hampshire wins. We're on the rise!

[69360]

Interesting. How reputable is this polling company?

PPP national is due very soon.

[Oddone]

Is this National?

[Agorism]

Y is this diff than gallup?

[pauliticalfan]

Also, we'd get 21% in a 3 way Obama/Romney/Paul


That's very, very good, and that's without running a national campaign yet.

[RPit]

Yep its national. We've moved up and for all the latest Nationals we're in double digits!!

This one is 15%, CNN was 14% and Gallup 11%..

WOHOOO!

[Fermli]

*EDIT* nevermind, found the pdf link

[realtonygoodwin]

Why only 11% with gallup then?

theirs is a rolling 5 day average, and IIRC it jumped from 9-11 in a day or two.

[RPsupporterAtHeart]

So when Gingrich completely falls down below RP's numbers, are they just going to declare Romney the winner? This whole thing smacks of the snotty bossy attention whoring kids on the playground continually changing the rules to fit their game and throwing a tantrum when they don't get their way.


Come to think of it, I guess most politicians and tv political analysts are like that as children to begin with, except Sean Hannity. He hasn't gone through puberty yet.

[sailingaway]

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec.
15-18, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cellphone-only respondents, and 395 leaned Republicans. Results have a margin of sampling error of
3.5 points for the full sample and 6 points for leaned Republicans. The survey was produced for
ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection
and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y

and leaned Republicans isn't even Ron's best polling category.

[Epic]

18. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) For each item I name, please tell me if it is a
major reason to (support) that candidate, a major reason to (oppose) that candidate,
or not a major factor?

g. Ron Paul’s views on limited government 55 19 21 6
h. Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military
interventions overseas 29 45 20 6

Foreign policy causing us some problems. Probably need some positive ads on that one...

[tremendoustie]

omg wtf isolationist!

Yes -- but look at this another way. 55% do not see it as a negative; at least not a major one. That's a very different republican party than the one Sean Hannity would have you believe exists.

[Epic]

Registered Voters: Gingrich trails Obama by 8, RP trails Obama by 5, Romney tied.

[pauliticalfan]

Also, where the heck is PPP's national poll? I thought that was coming out today.

[mwkaufman]

Highest number ever in a national poll, higher than ever in the RCP National, Iowa, and New Hampshire averages. It's been a good week.

Since July, Paul has halved the distance between him and Obama.

7/17 Paul -10
12/18 Paul -5

Has me curious about the PPP national poll too.

[RPit]

omg wtf isolationist!

But this means that we really need to get the foreign policy across better. 45 negative means that is really the major holdup! Get working people.

[RPit]

PPP poll might be midnight or tomorrow

[Xenophage]

Welcome to the tipping point, Ron Paulians :) It's been a wild ride and it's about to get wilder.

[Epic]

General Population (if RP runs 3rd party...):

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

[mport1]

But this means that we really need to get the foreign policy across better. 45 negative means that is really the major holdup! Get working people.

This should be the major short term focus of the campaign. If we can do better there, we will see HUGE gains.

[RPit]

General Population:

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

Can't we hold GOP hostage and force them to give us the nomination ;)

[Fermli]

The poll also includes a Ron Paul 3rd party question. (question #24 of the PDF link here (http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1132a2The2012Election.pdf)).

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

Obama 44
Gingrich 30
Paul 22

[Epic]

I thought we had a 10% ceiling... what happened?

[sailingaway]

General Population (if RP runs 3rd party...):

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

not happening. But if Ron has GOP nod and ROMNEY runs third party, I guarantee Romney won't get 20% of that.

[Epic]

Bachmann/Perry got 7% each, did they even poll Frothy or Huntsman?

[South Park Fan]

A plurality of Republican voters trust Romney most to handle the issue of health care. :rolleyes:

[sailingaway]

The poll also includes a Ron Paul 3rd party question. (question #24 of the PDF link here (http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1132a2The2012Election.pdf)).

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

Obama 44
Gingrich 30
Paul 22

So what? Even without Paul running third party Gingrich and Romney both lose to Obama. It isn't like Ron is even the margin of defeat. :p

[Agorism]

We hit 10% on RCP for the first time ever a few days ago when Gallup released that poll with Paul at 10%.

Anything above that is even better.

[69360]

General Population (if RP runs 3rd party...):

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

The GOP is screwed without Ron. The others might as well drop out now. :)

[RickyJ]

Ron is heading in the right direction. I think his appearance on Jay Leno helped him a lot. I hope he gets on more talk shows. I just got to go out and tell someone I am voting for Ron Paul the man who wants to have peace and end these damn wars right now! :)

[South Park Fan]

The poll also includes a Ron Paul 3rd party question. (question #24 of the PDF link here (http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1132a2The2012Election.pdf)).

Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

Obama 44
Gingrich 30
Paul 22

And I suppose the CPD would change the support threshold to 23% to participate in the debates.

[sailingaway]

I think the ppp one might be different. Unlike this one and CNN, they say Gingrich still had a fairly big lead, so his national drop may not have happened as much yet.... so Ron's rise might not be in it as much. Dunno.

[Johncjackson]

All the trends are moving up. The results that make no sense to me are the results where he is middle of the pack on questions pertaining to consistency and honesty. I think people just pick their guy and attach positive character traits.

[Johncjackson]

I think the ppp one might be different. Unlike this one and CNN, they say Gingrich still had a fairly big lead, so his national drop may not have happened as much yet.... so Ron's rise might not be in it as much. Dunno.

Yeah, PPP said results were coming today. Then tweeted that info ^ like 10 Hours ago and left us hanging.

[RPit]

I still expect PPP to show 10% or more even if they saying Gringrich didn't drop as much in theirs..

[sailingaway]

I still expect PPP to show 10% or more even if they saying Gringrich didn't drop as much in theirs..

Yeah, but 10% would be like Gallup. ABC and CNN are 15% and 14%

[sailingaway]

worth drudging?

[RPit]

Hmm.. I'd be fine with 12% ;) Fingers crossed for 15% though :)

[Johncjackson]

BTW, I think the 3rd party poll results are high for Ron. They ( polls that include 3rd/Ind far out from the general election) usually are. But obviously his support would be higher than the margin of victory ( which also, unfortunately, will tend to lower his vote totals in the election).

[RickyJ]

Paul has never said he would run third party if he didn't get the nomination so I have to wonder why they even bother asking that question. They must not believe him. I wish he would run third party if he doesn't get it, but I think he won't. So it is win the Republican nomination or it is all over. We should look at it that way, cause Ron has given us very little reason to think otherwise.

[69360]

worth drudging?

IMO, not really.

[69360]

Paul has never said he would run third party if he didn't get the nomination so I have to wonder why they even bother asking that question. They must not believe him. I wish he would run third party if he doesn't get it, but I think he won't. So it is win the Republican nomination or it is all over. We should look at it that way, cause Ron has given us very little reason to think otherwise.

He hinted at it on Leno.

[braane]

Paul has never said he would run third party if he didn't get the nomination so I have to wonder why they even bother asking that question. They must not believe him. I wish he would run third party if he doesn't get it, but I think he won't. So it is win the Republican nomination or it is all over. We should look at it that way, cause Ron has given us very little reason to think otherwise.

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Only being 20 points back as an independent is pretty impressive. I think if he could get the go ahead in debates he would do it. It doesn't matter though, because he is going to be the GOP nominee.

[Fermli]

New ceiling of 15%. go go Ron Paul

[Agorism]

Yeah, but 10% would be like Gallup. ABC and CNN are 15% and 14%

Ya Gallup is 11% now. Their tracking is daily. A couple days ago Gallup was 10 so it went +1 today..

[CableNewsJunkie]

I wonder what percentage of Ron's supporters are:

- Hard-core, solid, not going anywhere
- Moderate (found out about Ron on their own and GET IT, will probably stick with the campaign, but they're not as active)
- Moderate (they like him because they know a hard-core supporter who introduced them to Ron's philosophy, but might bolt from the campaign when the smears start)
- Weak (will bolt from the campaign when the smears start)

[PauliticsPolitics]

Yeah, PPP said results were coming today. Then tweeted that info ^ like 10 Hours ago and left us hanging.
They also tweeted this at about the same time:

@ppppolls (http://twitter.com/ppppolls)
PublicPolicyPolling
Buddy Roemer just called and personally asked to be included in our polls and was very nice about it so we'll do that for the duration (http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/148844743055519744)


Perhaps they decided to redo the National Poll to include Buddy!;)

[Sullivan*]

They also tweeted this at about the same time:


Perhaps they decided to redo the National Poll to include Buddy!;)
I'm down with that! I saw him on Ratigan's show a couple weeks ago. Very nice guy with a kickass message!

[Matthew Zak]

News like this makes me feel vindicated and empowered a little bit.

[lakerssuck92]

Interesting....29% say Ron's non-interventionist foreign policy makes them more like to vote for him. 45% say it makes them less likely.

So basically our ceiling is 55%. In other words, contrary to what the media says, Ron Paul is electable....

[mwkaufman]

Interesting....29% say Ron's non-interventionist foreign policy makes them more like to vote for him. 45% say it makes them less likely.

So basically our ceiling is 55%. In other words, contrary to what the media says, Ron Paul is electable....

Ceiling is higher than that. People with foreign policy misgivings can still support him over Gingrich or Romney.

[Matthew Zak]

It would seem that everyone but Paul has about a 30 percent ceiling.

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/384408_2141267546161_1680360004_1464920_1178805378 _n.jpg

[speciallyblend]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LyTBM42qPIU

It's not impossible...

It's Not Impossible:):):):) makes me cry!

[BUSHLIED]

It would seem that everyone but Paul has about a 30 percent ceiling.

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/384408_2141267546161_1680360004_1464920_1178805378 _n.jpg

Nice steady growth for Ron...where is Bachmann in this one? There have been 4 flavors of the month...

[Uriah]

It would seem that everyone but Paul has about a 30 percent ceiling.

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/384408_2141267546161_1680360004_1464920_1178805378 _n.jpg

Nice. Slow and steady.

[jax]

If ron paul wins iowa convincingly, +5% over romney, we will see a massive boost nationally. This is the perfect storm. Newt is the antiromney vote. When people see newt fail, and ron win, we will become the anti romney at the perfect time. We will gain massive newt votes

[SpicyTurkey]

This is amazing. Hope we continue to rise.

[sailingaway]

Interesting....29% say Ron's non-interventionist foreign policy makes them more like to vote for him. 45% say it makes them less likely.

So basically our ceiling is 55%. In other words, contrary to what the media says, Ron Paul is electable....

and that is only 'leans Republican' whereas many primaries are open.

[dusman]

It would seem that everyone but Paul has about a 30 percent ceiling.

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/384408_2141267546161_1680360004_1464920_1178805378 _n.jpg

What a beautiful plot. :)

[gerryb]

A thousand words are worth a picture.

Media mind control is an amazing thing.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

Safe to say we are definitely in 3rd nationally and continuing to rise. People around the country are starting to believe Paul can do it as they hear positive Iowa and NH numbers.He'd already be first without the bastards in the media skewing everything. Watched some CBS today. They still called Newt the frontrunner, and the second person they mentioned was Romney. I'm going to enjoy watching them burn in hell for trying to sell out their country.

[MaxPower]

30/30/15 matches CNN national numbers 28/28/14...

With 75% allocated to 3 people, a clear top tier has emerged.
Notably, while the mainstream media was happy to refer to Bachmann as "top tier" when she briefly had those kinds of numbers nationally, the term seems to have disappeared almost completely from reporting on the race in the last couple weeks, since the state of affairs has become such that Ron Paul would absolutely have to be included in said tier.

[JordanL]

If ron paul wins iowa convincingly, +5% over romney, we will see a massive boost nationally. This is the perfect storm. Newt is the antiromney vote. When people see newt fail, and ron win, we will become the anti romney at the perfect time. We will gain massive newt votes

While I was doing the Phone from Home, I took a survey for someone in NH. They said their first choice was Newt, and their second was RP. I think we pick up a lot of Newt voters... they've already eliminated Romney as an option completely I think.

[J_White]

was it PPP with 28-28-14 for NG, MR and RP ?

[kpitcher]

Any bakers around? We should send a cake in the shape of a crow to all those talking heads who said Paul had a ceiling that he has since busted through.

[airborne373]

This is causing panic mode meetings in the Keynesian socialist world protected by FOX & MSNBC!

[LeJimster]

30/30/15 matches CNN national numbers 28/28/14...

With 75% allocated to 3 people, a clear top tier has emerged.

Notice something strange about these polls? There is another one just out 20/20/10.

In every case, the top 2 are tied and have double the percentage Ron has without fail.

[jax]

Notice something strange about these polls? There is another one just out 20/20/10.

In every case, the top 2 are tied and have double the percentage Ron has without fail.

http://gifsforum.com/images/gif/sht%20just%20got%20real/grand/woow_got_real.gif

[brendan.orourke]

That damn ceiling just keeps moving!

[netwalker]

That video rocked.

And that dude nailed End This War. Gave me goosebumps. Spot on, A+, +1, etc.

[orenbus]

15%, the tipping point

As we start to make a difference in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states the below video explains exactly what needs to happen as we approach the tipping point and go past it. What we really need to do is reach out to the early majority in order to reach the tipping point and get a hold of the big mo. People are inspired in what someone believes and what they believe about themselves. The following also has a great example with MLK, whole discussion starts around 11:00.

The 15% tipping point concept follows the Law of Diffusion of Innovations;

2 1/2% = innovators
13 1/2 % = early adopters
34% = early majority
34% = late majority
16% = laggards

Shown here at 11:00 minute mark, explains further the gap between 15-18%:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4&t=10m55s

[klamath]

As anybody around here knows I am not a third party person these numbers are starting to be interesting.


Obama 44
Romney 30
Paul 21

Obama 44
Gingrich 30
Paul 22
Rp could very easily win states in the west and swing states throwing the election into an electoral college showdown. Something that hasn't happened in YEARS.

[SilentBull]

Just got a message from a liberal friend of mine on Facebook:

I've been paying attention lately to Ron Paul, and even though I don't agree with some of his political and social views - i gotta say he has some interesting ideas and I'm beginning to really like him...i can definite see why you support him.

We are near the tipping point. My only concern is whether we can reach it with Republicans.

[SilentBull]

15%, the tipping point

As we start to make a difference in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states the below video explains exactly what needs to happen as we approach the tipping point and go past it. What we really need to do is reach out to the early majority in order to reach the tipping point and get a hold of the big mo. People are inspired in what someone believes and what they believe about themselves. The following also has a great example with MLK, whole discussion starts around 11:00.

The 15% tipping point concept follows the Law of Diffusion of Innovations;

2 1/2% = innovators
13 1/2 % = early adopters
34% = early majority
34% = late majority
16% = laggards

Shown here at 11:00 minute mark, explains further the gap between 15-18%:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4&t=10m55s

I wrote a post on this a little while ago: http://www.truthinexile.com/2011/10/20/is-the-ron-paul-explosion-coming/