Election Analysis

[AlexMerced]

http://my.ronpaulspace.com/alexmerced

My latest blog entry I post my analysis of national polls an my predictions for the primaries, give it a read and tell me if you guys agree or I got anything wrong as far as what I said about the national polls.

[Badger Paul]

I don't think Ohio is Fred Thompson's. It's just that most people polled know his name.

Most polls right now are about name recognition. It isn't until the last six weeks before an election that opinions start to harden. The more attention RP gets the more he can rise in the polls and its starting to happen.

Also remember this, intensity often is what wins in politics. This will be crucial in helping RP, especially in caucus states and luckily, Nevada and Iowa both have cauces early on.

[AlexMerced]

I can agree with that, I just live in Ohio it's funny to hear people say

"I find Thompsons ideas interesting"

then I'm like "what ideas"

and they they just give me a blank stare

Though there are ROn Paul supporters here, we do exist, sadly I'm graduating befor ethe primary starts, and it's too late for me to register in NYC which is where I'm moving too, but I've been donating every last extra penny I have.

[AlexMerced]

did I get the breakdown of the scientific polls right?

[USPatriot36]

did I get the breakdown of the scientific polls right?

It depends on the poll. A pollster wrote that they use voters who voted in the 2000 or 2004 primary. It is possible that they would focus on people who voted in both 2000 and 2004 as those people are cosidered "super voters" who vote every time. Also, in some states there might have been other things on the ballot that might have brought people to the polls (ie. nominating a congressman or senator).

[AlexMerced]

yeah, I know the gay marriage issue brought out the religious right in the last election, but that was during the general elections.