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View Full Version : Gingrich going way of Perry, Cain. Will Huntsman's rise in NH take votes from Mitt?




dcjones
12-19-2011, 12:49 PM
Looking at RCP Iowa. RP looks like its his to loose. He has the momentum, money, and ground game:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

Looking at RCP NH. This is Romneys to loose. BUT it appears that Huntsman (a wishy washey moderate) like Romney is starting to get traction. If Mitt and Huntsman split the moderate NH vote, with Pauls momentum, he may be able to take NH as well.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

BUSHLIED
12-19-2011, 01:19 PM
I do think that Huntsman cuts into our vote, if you look at crosstabs among the state polls, Ron's base rate Huntsman more favorable than the other candidates. Probably due to his foreign policy stances and appeal to more liberal/moderate independent voters...

Aratus
12-19-2011, 01:21 PM
jon huntsman has already pulled N.H voters away from mitt romney

dcjones
12-19-2011, 01:24 PM
Bushlied,

I am sure you are right. Even still I think if Huntman gains momentum he would take more votes from Mitt than RP. RP's base is solid. RP's base may like Huntsman more than Mitt (given the choice between only those two) but I am willing to bet that Mitts base is more loosely attached to him than RP's is. Just a hunch.

Canderson
12-19-2011, 01:47 PM
A huntsman surge, combined with strong advertising from the Paul campaign would benefit us greatly

BUSHLIED
12-19-2011, 01:54 PM
Bushlied,

I am sure you are right. Even still I think if Huntman gains momentum he would take more votes from Mitt than RP. RP's base is solid. RP's base may like Huntsman more than Mitt (given the choice between only those two) but I am willing to bet that Mitts base is more loosely attached to him than RP's is. Just a hunch.


Yes, Ron's base is solid but in order to beat Romney in NH, Ron has to expand his base. If Huntsman were not in the race, there would be say about 10% of NH voters that could and probably would migrate towards Paul because Paul would have been the only one with a sensible Foreign Policy (most likely the main reason they are supporting Huntsman now). I am personally curious to know why people are supporting Huntsman over Paul or other candidates for that matter??

Ron is either going to hope to pick up "conservative" "tea-party" Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum voters that will switch to him after a win in Iowa as the "anti-romney" candidate. Or continue to bring new voters into the fold. This means (naturally in NH) the large portion of independents. With the media now pushing Huntsman, new voters might then decide to get involved and go with Huntsman instead of Paul...

If Huntsman chips away at Romney, that would be good but it still would have to be significant chip say about 10% to bring Romney down to size...but then that may put Huntsman at 23%. It would then be a three way race in NH...it becomes a double-edge sword.

Romney-35 (-10) >>>> Romney 25%
Paul-19 (grow+10)>>>>>>29%
Huntsman-13>>> (+10) HUntsman 23%
Gingrich-17

So, I guess we have to hope that Huntsman can chip away at romney enough say 5% while we grow our support by 10%....that's the trick. My assumption is that Romney gets at min. 25% with the potential to get 35%.

ds21089
12-19-2011, 02:01 PM
Keep in mind that early on, a lot of us thought about how Huntsman would be pushed since he attended Bilderberg. Perhaps they are saving him for last? It will be hard to dig up a lot of dirt on Huntsman, since he's kept pretty quiet.

musicmax
12-19-2011, 02:13 PM
jon huntsman has already pulled N.H voters away from mitt romney

Huntsman will also pull some establishment GOP votes from Newt - middle-of-the-roaders who see Romney as a wishy-washy robot and Newt as a loose cannon.