PPP NH Poll: Romney 35 Paul 19 Gingrich 17

[ross11988]

Romney 35
Paul 19
Gingrich 17
Huntsman 13
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Perry 2
Johnson 1

[ross11988]

Not horrible, could of been better. Looks like were back to normal with Romney in the lead

[tsai3904]

New Hampshire
12/16 - 12/18
1,235 likely Republican primary voters
+/-2.8%






12/16
12/18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/romney-dominating-new-hampshire.html)



6/30
7/5 (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/bachmann-surging-signs-of-weakness-for.html)



Romney
35
28
Paul
19
9
Gingrich
17
4
Huntsman
13
7
Bachmann
5
21
Santorum
3

Perry
2
9
Johnson
1




Ron Paul Crosstabs:





12/16
12/18



6/30
7/5



18-29
29
17
30-45
24
10
46-65
16
7
>65
11
10
Man
22
12
Woman
14
5



Second Choice:





12/16
12/18



Gingrich
17
Romney
16
Paul
13
Huntsman
10
Bachmann
9
Santorum
5
Perry
4
Johnson
3

[Zydeco]

A little high on Romney, but this is fine for right now. We're in first in Iowa and second in NH, and if we win Iowa we get a bump in NH.

[SamuraisWisdom]

Time to go on the offensive against Romney in NH?

[TER]

Time to go on the offensive against Romney in NH?

Yep. Crony capitalism ad also showing the top three contributors for MR and RP.

[ross11988]

A little high on Romney, but this is fine for right now. We're in first in Iowa and second in NH, and if we win Iowa we get a bump in NH.

Exactly. Plus we have the cash now to compete with Romney

[WD-NY]

Ugh... Huntsman is taking probably 6-7 points from Paul. Which is why the establishment will continue to push him hard in NH..

[sailingaway]

I don't like where Huntsman is. He's going all over saying he's right there with Ron for third (he has one poll saying that). We have a lot of work to do, but a win in Iowa would be a big help.

[ross11988]

PPP Tweet: Paul 2nd in NH for same reason he's doing well in IA- strong support from young voters, independents

Lol "For some reason"

[muh_roads]

Why do people have such a boner for Romney? Is NH full of liberals or libertarians?

Paul campaign, increase the ground game in NH please. kthxbye.

[ross11988]

I don't like where Huntsman is. He's going all over saying he's right there with Ron for third (he has one poll saying that). We have a lot of work to do, but a win in Iowa would be a big help.

Don't worry PPP Tweet: Don't see much further room for Huntsman advancement in NH- fav under 50%, only at 8% with actual GOPers

[RonPaulFever]

A win in Iowa and 2nd in NH would be amazing. And that's very likely what's going to happen. After that it will undeniably be a two-man race.

[Austin]

Do you think candidate has strong principles?
Paul: 69%
Romney: 51%
Huntsman: 48%

Only 9% think Paul has the best chance of beating Obama, compared to Romney's 38% and Gingrich's 14%.

[Epic]

Let's find Hunstman's 2nd place votes. See who they go to.

[Johnnybags]

Romney underperform by 5 percent, Paul will outperform by some but Romney has the hometown advantage. All about turnout, lets hope for Blizzard.

[bluesc]

Ugh... Huntsman is taking probably 6-7 points from Paul. Which is why the establishment will continue to push him hard in NH..

No need to cry about it. We just attack Romney and take from him like we did with Newt in IA, and we win Iowa, which will give us a good bump for NH. You're negative ~80% of the time.

[Blue]

PPP Tweet: Paul 2nd in NH for same reason he's doing well in IA- strong support from young voters, independents

Lol "For some reason"

It clearly says "same" in the Tweet.

[sailingaway]

Do you think candidate has strong principles?
Paul: 69%
Romney: 51%
Huntsman: 48%

Only 9% think Paul has the best chance of beating Obama, compared to Romney's 38% and Gingrich's 14%.



and yet ppp tweeted that there is a statistical case that Ron Paul is BEST against Obama in the general. We need to put all the polls against Obama together into a commercial.

[Epic]

Because it seems like there's some possibility Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum could come to the end of their roads in Iowa we also tested a 4 way GOP contest between just Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman. In that scenario Romney gets 37% to 21% for Paul, 20% for Gingrich, and 15% for Huntsman. It wouldn't change the nature of the race much if those folks dropped out because they have so little support in New Hampshire to begin with.

Doesn't really matter who drops out - they allocate evenly. That's good!

[Aratus]

in the last five months, did some of bachmann's people go to gingrich and was
huntsman's five point gain at romney's expense as ron paul gained ten points?

[Darthbrooklyn]

Why do people have such a boner for Romney? Is NH full of liberals or libertarians?

Paul campaign, increase the ground game in NH please. kthxbye.

Paul is in NH all this week...

[jmdrake]

Not horrible, could of been better. Looks like were back to normal with Romney in the lead

Has Romney ever not been in the lead in NH? But it's good that we're in a solid second. We need to keep the heat on Newt and prepare to turn it up on Romney. And NH is where Ron's appeal to independents can really make the difference.

[sailingaway]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
If Bachmann/Perry/Santorum didn't make it to NH: Romney 37, Paul 21, Gingrich 20, Huntsman 15 http://t.co/NNr9JlFt

[willwash]

Time to go on the offensive against Romney in NH?

Not a good idea IMO. Romney will take NH and there's little we can do to stop that. When we win Iowa, we'll get a bump up to a respectable second in NH for free anyway. Our efforts are better spent trying to capitalize on that bump in Nevada and maybe FL or SC. If we win Iowa, 2nd in NH, win Nevada and respectable 2nd in at least one of FL and SC we'll be in great shape. The Grinch will be forced to drop out. Hopefully he doesn't immediately endorse Romney, if he does we're fucked unless Perry and/or Bachmann drop out and endorse Ron.

[TwoJ]

A good sample size and post-debate numbers, not bad.

[Trigonx]

Paul is in NH all this week...


Time to get the older folks vote. The time is now for that voting segment.

[sailingaway]

Not a good idea IMO. Romney will take NH and there's little we can do to stop that. When we win Iowa, we'll get a bump up to a respectable second in NH for free anyway. Our efforts are better spent trying to capitalize on that bump in Nevada and maybe FL or SC. If we win Iowa, 2nd in NH, win Nevada and respectable 2nd in at least one of FL and SC we'll be in great shape. The Grinch will be forced to drop out. Hopefully he doesn't immediately endorse Romney, if he does we're fucked unless Perry and/or Bachmann drop out and endorse Ron.

we as supporters could spread news of Romney's position on that power line eminent domain nightmare, or on his backer being closely aligned with it, I guess I should say. I wonder if our guys could ask Romney his position on that.

[sailingaway]

Time to get the older folks vote. The time is now for that voting segment.

Romney's budget plan only cuts increases in future spending, and even so, cuts medicare.

Ron Paul's budget plan balances the budget in three years, and doesn't cut a penny of social security or medicare.

[SchleckBros]

Let's find Hunstman's 2nd place votes. See who they go to.

Romney - 51
Paul - 25
Gingrich - 14

[speciallyblend]

not bad ,expose romney for the status quo he is!

[Epic]

Let's find Hunstman's 2nd place votes. See who they go to.

Huntsman voters allocate in accordance to general numbers. 20% to Paul, 35% to Romney.

[Andrew Ryan]

Paul is in NH all this week...
Shouldn't he be in Iowa?

[Cap'n Crunk]

and yet ppp tweeted that there is a statistical case that Ron Paul is BEST against Obama in the general. We need to put all the polls against Obama together into a commercial.

Agreed. The campaign needs to start airing commercials showing that Ron Paul is electable and the polls show this.

[WD-NY]

No need to cry about it. We just attack Romney and take from him like we did with Newt in IA, and we win Iowa, which will give us a good bump for NH. You're negative ~80% of the time.

Romney is a lot harder to attack than Newt. The DNC has already run several 'flip flop' ads and none have lasted more than a day in terms of attention. Hypocrisy was the 'talk of the town' for several days straight. So I don't think the usual 'flip flop' ads are going to work.

Also, Mitt isn't 'evil' or mean like Newt so any attack that doesn't hit the bullseye is going to drive up Ron's unfavorables far more than Ron's pitch-perfect takedown of Newt did.

80% of the time? lol, 50% at most! (as long as negative = constructively critical)

[Carole]

Hope that includes the Northern Pass bundler contributor. :p

[Epic]

Romney - 51
Paul - 25
Gingrich - 14

No, that's people who had Hunstman as their second choice. We need people with Huntsman as first choice.

If you run a search for "2nd choice", it will be the 2nd chart.

[tsai3904]

Paul is in NH all this week...

He's only in NH for two days.

[tremendoustie]

Agreed. The campaign needs to start airing commercials showing that Ron Paul is electable and the polls show this.

Good idea.

We need someone in the video saying this, I think: "The republicans are not going to win in November with a candidate whose foreign policy is cloned from Bush".

[Indiana4Paul]

In 2008, Romney was +13 on a 2nd place John McCain on December 18.

McCain came back to win the primary +5.5. Hillary also made a huge jump between the week of Christmas through the Primary.

[skyorbit]

Isn't most of Gingriches support in NH the "anybody but Romney" vote though? When we win Iowa, isn't like 70% of Gingriches support "soft" that will likely go to Gingrich? I think we can probably get much of huntsman's votes too. 70% of Gingriches 17% is about 10 points so we've still got a lot of work to do, but I think it's quite possible that after we win Iowa, we'll be neck and neck with Mitt RomneyCare.

[ross11988]

In 2008, Romney was +13 on a 2nd place John McCain on December 18.

McCain came back to win the primary +5.5. Hillary also made a huge jump between the week of Christmas through the Primary.

HOpefully History Repeats itself!

[ross11988]

FYI the highest Huckabee ever polled in NH was 14% even after his Iowa Win

[CUnknown]

I apologize to anyone who lives in NH or SC, but NH is mostly "moderate" globalists it seems, and SC appears to be neo-con territory. It will be difficult to win either of those states, but a strong finish is all we actually need, as long as we win Iowa.

[ZanZibar]

Why do people have such a boner for Romney? Is NH full of liberals or libertarians?NH is full of libertarians, but more full of people who have moved up there from Mass.


Paul campaign, increase the ground game in NH please. kthxbye.How many phone-from-home calls have you made? :confused:

[South Park Fan]

FYI the highest Huckabee ever polled in NH was 14% even after his Iowa Win

Huckabee didn't get a surge because NH as always going to be a McCain vs. Romney race. McCain surged in late December and Huckabee prevented Romney from having enough momentum to compensate. Things will be a bit different if Paul wins IA since Paul is the leading alternative to Romney in both states.

[trey4sports]

and yet ppp tweeted that there is a statistical case that Ron Paul is BEST against Obama in the general. We need to put all the polls against Obama together into a commercial.

This.

That is what we need.

[z9000]

Two weeks from today myself and many others will be on the ground with Youth for Ron Paul. We have a lot of work to do but I think we can pull an upset. Any weather reports for January yet??

[ross11988]

bump

[JamesButabi]

Two weeks from today myself and many others will be on the ground with Youth for Ron Paul. We have a lot of work to do but I think we can pull an upset. Any weather reports for January yet??

See you there.....Rain or Shine....Snow or Sleet.

[Mordan]

This.

That is what we need.

+1

[Birdlady]

Romney is a lot harder to attack than Newt. The DNC has already run several 'flip flop' ads and none have lasted more than a day in terms of attention. Hypocrisy was the 'talk of the town' for several days straight. So I don't think the usual 'flip flop' ads are going to work.

Also, Mitt isn't 'evil' or mean like Newt so any attack that doesn't hit the bullseye is going to drive up Ron's unfavorables far more than Ron's pitch-perfect takedown of Newt did.

I actually have to agree that Romney is hard to attack... The flip flops are well known at this point and I think Romney has explained them away a few times during the debates. I have been trying to think of a video I could make about Romney and I keep coming up blank.

[dusman]

Keep in mind no candidate has won both Iowa and New Hampshire in 25 years or so. We are in great shape, considering if you factor margin of error, we are within 10%.

[RDM]

Agreed. The campaign needs to start airing commercials showing that Ron Paul is electable and the polls show this.


Good idea.

We need someone in the video saying this, I think: "The republicans are not going to win in November with a candidate whose foreign policy is cloned from Bush".

Plus, I would have somewhere in the ad that Romney was a draft dodger and Ron's military service.

[South Park Fan]

I actually have to agree that Romney is hard to attack... The flip flops are well known at this point and I think Romney has explained them away a few times during the debates. I have been trying to think of a video I could make about Romney and I keep coming up blank.

He's tough to attack because anyone that supports him cares more about electability than ideological purity. The only thing we can do to combat Romney is point to all the polls showing us crushing Obama with Independent voters.

[ItsTime]

Isn't most of Gingriches support in NH the "anybody but Romney" vote though? When we win Iowa, isn't like 70% of Gingriches support "soft" that will likely go to Gingrich? I think we can probably get much of huntsman's votes too. 70% of Gingriches 17% is about 10 points so we've still got a lot of work to do, but I think it's quite possible that after we win Iowa, we'll be neck and neck with Mitt RomneyCare.

Yes it is, we can win NH if we win Iowa.

[Fredom101]

Time to shift the negative ads to Romney. For some reason they love him in NH but he didn't do so well there in 08 right?

[jsem]

I really hope Huntsman takes lots of votes from Romney, it'd leave a better chance for Paul to win NH. It'd also prolong the process leaving more candidates in the race, even better for RP.

[Darthbrooklyn]

We definitely have to do a Ron Paul "Military" ad.. the neo cons love this sh**.. and throw in Romney beating it to France to avoid the draft while RP became an Air Force Flight surgeon.. We will have the strongest Military in the world blah blah blah but for Defense, not nationbuilding..

[parocks]

Why do people have such a boner for Romney? Is NH full of liberals or libertarians?

Paul campaign, increase the ground game in NH please. kthxbye.

Southern NH = Boston Suburbs

[Todd]

In 2008, Romney was +13 on a 2nd place John McCain on December 18.

McCain came back to win the primary +5.5. Hillary also made a huge jump between the week of Christmas through the Primary.

Bill Clinton won neither in 92' and still pulled it out.