New Insider Advantage Iowa Poll - Paul leads with 24%, Romney at 18%

[mwkaufman]

Insider Advantage Iowa 12/18

24% Paul
18% Romney
16% Perry
13% Gingrich
10% Bachmann
4% Huntsman
3% Santorum

Source (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_IA_1218.pdf)

I'm not buying Santorum that low or Perry that high, but booya as a Paul supporter.

[pauliticalfan]

Wowzer!

[zerosdontcount]

Holy shit!

[Canderson]

awesome

[SchleckBros]

BOOM!

[low preference guy]

so is RedState going to question this poll sample too?

[Austin]

Amazing, amazing. Some hack was trying to debunk the PPP poll, but this only further confirms that Paul has a significant lead.

[Canderson]

This may put us in first in the RCP average

[SamuraisWisdom]

It still hasn't sunk in that this is actually happening. After all these years all of our hard work is finally paying off.

[bluesc]

How will the folks over at RedState dismiss this one? Looks like Perry's millions are paying off.

[specsaregood]

An he leads among all 3 categories: R/D/I 21.9/25.9/27.8

[FA.Hayek]

Perry at 16%? Who in their right mind still supports Perry? I guess all those ad buys are working for him

[muh_roads]

Fuck yeah!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtl2ZuJpG9M

We're coming for you establishment. Sick of you taking our money and dolling it out in the form of corporate welfare.

VETO TIME!

[specsaregood]

so is RedState going to question this poll sample too?
rhetorical question is rhetorical

[tremendoustie]

HOLY @#$@#@!!!!

[zHorns]

This is impossible. RedState said so.

[SamuraisWisdom]

Guys, the best part about this poll is that Ron leads REPUBLICANS with 22% of the vote. Romney in second with 20%. That is HUGE!!!!

[bluesc]

Ron is 1st on the RCP averages :D

[specsaregood]

So, now do we get the "leader" bump as the bandwagon bands jump aboard before the attacks? How high will this support ceilingtarget go?

[FA.Hayek]

Guys, the best part about this poll is that Ron leads REPUBLICANS with 22% of the vote. Romney in second with 20%. That is HUGE!!!!

that is huge! good news!

[low preference guy]

the ceiling! keeps rising!

[tsai3904]

This poll only has 64% Republicans while PPP had 75% Republicans in their poll. It's good to see that we're leading even among Republicans only though.

[djruden]

Perry at 16%? Who in their right mind still supports Perry? I guess all those ad buys are working for him

Perry is flooding airwaves and mail boxes. I think I get a flyer about him almost every other day and his commercials are on the network channels pretty much every break. Money talks but Paul has the real substance to back it up, we can still turn these conservatives to our side.

[georgiaboy]

Prayers answered. Conservative Christians seeing the light and moving toward it.

[Heman5up]

Yes, this also put us at top on RCP average poll 21.7 against Romney 20.3.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

[ronpaulfollower999]

An oldie but…


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3j387pjjbv0

[tremendoustie]

Oh, and we're winning in EVERY age category except 65+

[tremendoustie]

Drudge it!

[Legend1104]

Holy crap look at those numbers. He has 47.8 with 18-29 year olds. Sadly he only gets 9.8 with 65+. If it wasn't for that low one he would be in the 30s. Surely this will help us pull up in the other states.

[IndianaPolitico]

We have the establishment shaking in their boots! RON PAUL!

[low preference guy]

Oh, and we're winning in EVERY age category except 65+

we need flyers saying that RP wants to cut the military to fund social security. i don't want an ad so much because i fear it might turn off younger voters.

[TomtheTinker]

FRONT RUNNER RON PAUL!!1

[IndianaPolitico]

Holy crap look at those numbers. He has 47.8 with 18-29 year olds. Sadly he only gets 9.8 with 65+. If it wasn't for that low one he would be in the 30s. Surely this will help us pull up in the other states.
I wonder if some of those voters will change their mind when they see all of our support at the caucus... :D

[No Free Beer]

http://i41.tinypic.com/yz4f8.jpg

[randomname]

practically as many males as females support Paul now, and 10% of women support that creep Gingrich any more. WOW!

[Epic]

Perry up, Santorum down?

I'd trust PPP a lot more.

Though if Perry could actually come in 2nd on caucus night, that would help us!

[DRV45N05]

The best part about this poll?

Insider Advantage is a Republican firm. ;)

[Fermli]

my god a 6 point lead.

RE-MARK-ABLE

[djruden]

Holy crap look at those numbers. He has 47.8 with 18-29 year olds. Sadly he only gets 9.8 with 65+. If it wasn't for that low one he would be in the 30s. Surely this will help us pull up in the other states.

This is a hard thing to overcome. In Iowa it is not uncommon for older folk to not have a computer or internet connection. Lots of senior citizens don't care much for that stuff and so their news is filtered thru news papers and MSM like Fox News. Many will still be brainwashed to think Paul is crazy and unelectable or whatever the MSM is parroting about him.

[cdc482]

Yes, now we're winning all of the latest polls and RCP. There is no denying it!

[TomtheTinker]

wait a second...Insider Advantage doesn't count..along with PPP.

[South Park Fan]

Perry up, Santorum down?

I'd trust PPP a lot more.

Though if Perry could actually come in 2nd on caucus night, that would help us!

Not in South Carolina.

[willwash]

It still hasn't sunk in that this is actually happening. After all these years all of our hard work is finally paying off.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDZ_lSJjgvk

Just superimpose Rush, Bill O, or Hannity's face over the cutout woman's face, and the clip takes on an oddly high parallel.

[tremendoustie]

we need flyers saying that RP wants to cut the military to fund social security. i don't want an ad so much because i fear it might turn off younger voters.

No, no no. Bad idea.

Paul wants to phase out SS, while taking care of those currently dependent.

If it aint broke, don't fix it.

Plus that sends the message that Paul supports unending entitlement spending, when in reality he is the candidate most opposed to entitlement spending of them all.

[bluesc]

No, no no. Bad idea.

Paul wants to phase out SS, while taking care of those currently dependent.

We're winning. It's not time to change the message.

There is nothing in his plan about phasing it out. Stop telling voters that. The ad is a great idea.

[specsaregood]

This is a hard thing to overcome. In Iowa it is not uncommon for older folk to not have a computer or internet connection. Lots of senior citizens don't care much for that stuff and so their news is filtered thru news papers and MSM like Fox News. Many will still be brainwashed to think Paul is crazy and unelectable or whatever the MSM is parroting about him.

The way to overcome it is to get our supporters to call their grandparents and talk to them about Dr. Paul

[Zydeco]

they're a bunch of Baghdad Bobs over there at Redstate.

[Zydeco]

New ceiling is 24% :)

[low preference guy]

Paul wants to phase out SS, while taking care of those currently dependent.

yes, and i want flyers to say exactly that. that he wants to take care of those currently dependent by cutting the military, while the others want to increase the military and won't be able to take care of those currently dependent. we are polling less than 9% in the group that will like this message.

[jsem]

Feels good man.

[sailingaway]

so is RedState going to question this poll sample too?

I couldn't find my password (my email search is acting up) so I left them burbling innanities to themselves... but you don't poll 'too many' of one group or another when people can register right at the caucus, you just ask how likely people are to go, and for whom they will caucus. That guy at Redstate absolutely hates Ron, like Levin and Lord. True neocons, not national security conservatives.

[maxoutco]

Just emailed newsmanager@foxnews.com sending them this article and asking them if this means there is a new ceiling.

[trey4sports]

yeah boiiii!

[69360]

This is something else. War mongering neocons aren't running the show in IA. Who woulda thought? :)

[Aratus]

this neatly dovetails with
the new PPP numbers!!!
we see a surge arriving!

[Trigonx]

Fuck yeah!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtl2ZuJpG9M

We're coming for you establishment. Sick of you taking our money and dolling it out in the form of corporate welfare.

VETO TIME!

Every time some one posts this video in a thread, I am compelled to watch it.

[speciallyblend]

Amazing, amazing. Some hack was trying to debunk the PPP poll, but this only further confirms that Paul has a significant lead.

I hope our numbers are better then this on caucus night:) come on jan 3rd!

[speciallyblend]

this neatly dovetails with
the new PPP numbers!!!
we see a surge arriving! snowballing to an avalanche of liberty:) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0RWLxOFGLY<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0RWLxOFGLY">
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0RWLxOFGLY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=AlPqL7IUT6M<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0RWLxOFGLY" target="_blank"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&amp;feature=endscreen&amp;v=AlPqL7IUT6M">
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&amp;feature=endscreen&amp;v=AlPqL7IUT6M (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0RWLxOFGLY)

[MsDoodahs]

Just emailed newsmanager@foxnews.com sending them this article and asking them if this means there is a new ceiling.

lol.....

[harikaried]

An he leads among all 3 categories: R/D/I 21.9/25.9/27.8
Republicans: Paul 21.9% vs Romney 19.7%
Democrats: Paul 25.9% vs No opinion 17.3%
Independents: Paul 27.8% vs Perry 18.7%

[harikaried]

Wow. Gingrich dropped 14% in 6 days.

12/12: Gingrich 27%
12/18: Gingrich 13%

More than 2% per day!

[klamath]

we need flyers saying that RP wants to cut the military to fund social security. i don't want an ad so much because i fear it might turn off younger voters.
WRONG! Cut useless foreign wars and fund SSI!

[libertyfanatic]

A devastating blow to the establishment!

[kill the banks]

neocons reaching for the pepto bismol and scotch

[Karsten]

It has us winning REPUBLICANS and WOMEN, as well as every age group up to 65!

[Badger Paul]

Now this is more like it. You can't call Insider Advantage a "Democrat" polling firm. They and ARG along with the news media joint polls are neutral.

[hazek]

Oh, and we're winning in EVERY age category except 65+

Next ad should be Ron leveling with the seniors about social security and medic care, how he's the only one that will ensure they'll get enough to get by.

[georgiaboy]

Next ad should be Ron leveling with the seniors about social security and medic care, how he's the only one that will ensure they'll get enough to get by.

That, and give their kids and grandkids a chance to be successful.

[JoshLowry]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4G4mcYOXMA

[parocks]

http://webmusicvideo.com/bachmann2012/media/kunena/attachments/70/INAD121911.jpg

[aSwedishSupporter]

Yeah, Ron Paul leads in ALL groups except age group 65+. He leads Men Women Reps Dems Inds. (Not hispanics and blacks, but only 12 individuals were asked there, so its not significant)

WHY isn't this on the front page of dailypaul or ronpaul2012???

[limequat]

Bump for Awesomesauce

[TheNewYorker]

Yeah, Ron Paul leads in ALL groups except age group 65+. He leads Men Women Reps Dems Inds. (Not hispanics and blacks, but only 12 individuals were asked there, so its not significant)

WHY isn't this on the front page of dailypaul or ronpaul2012???

Because people age 65+ tend to not use the internet. They watch the "news" on TV and believe all of the lies. Unfortunately, most voters are in the 65+ age bracket. In 2008 during the primaries, the voting location I went to (A COLLEGE) was about 90% geezers voting.

[sailingaway]

Perry jumped hugely. Let's watch the other polls for signs of this. So far, this is the only one like that.

[RickyJ]

Good news and bad news with this poll. The good news is that Ron's lead is getting bigger, the bad news is that Rick Perry is soaring.

[jax]

alright guys, its the bottom of the 9th, world series game 7, 2 outs, down by 1 and Ron Paul is on third. Its up to us to knock drive him in. Iowa is just the begining

[jax]

Good news and bad news with this poll. The good news is that Ron's lead is getting bigger, the bad news is that Rick Perry is soaring.

taking romney and gingrich votes with him. im perfectly fine with that. a Ron Paul - Rick Perry 1-2 punch in iowa would be the perfect result

[low preference guy]

Perry jumped hugely. Let's watch the other polls for signs of this. So far, this is the only one like that.

Hope Iowans are reminded of Perry stunt to overshadow the Iowa Straw poll. That should cut any incipient surge.

[eok321]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3j387pjjbv0

LOL- drudge bomb on that video when we win Iowa. Lets see what Snuffleupagus has in his pocket

[Maximus]

Huntsman is beating Santorum? lol

[sailingaway]

Huntsman is beating Santorum? lol

remember that PPP poll that found exactly one Huntsman supporter? Not one percent, one person? and they wrote up an entire profile of the guy.....

[Steppenwolf6]

Huntsman is beating Santorum? lol

ah aha.

What's happening here is that Pastors and churches in Iowa are trying to communicate to each other and unite behind one between the three stoog..ehm..sorry ..only one of the three social conservatives:
Bachmann,Perry ,Santorum.
They are agreeing more and more on Perry now.

Some even asked Bachmann to drop out for that reason recently,to "clear up the field"!

talking about electability and "beating Obama"!
Can you imagine Perry vs.Obama debate?
with liberal journalists controlling it on top of that?
Or under heavy questioning by MSM?
It would be comical:
They would destroy him worse than Palin

[Steppenwolf6]

I wrote a few days ago that this was going to be a three way race,but NOT romney/gingrich/paul as many thought.
the mitt gingrich/newt romney
idea was the only correct thing bachmann said in this campaign:
those two are too similar.

More like:
Romney(moderate establishment)
Perry( social conservative)
Ron Paul( the good doctor ,period!)

[rich34]

Bachmann is to egotistical to drop out. In fact, I'd be shocked. If so, it could get close. The socialcons carried Huckabee. With all the candidates running ads against Ron now maybe he needs to target Mitt and Perry. We can't let them get into arms reach and if they do that's when u knock them TFO...

[morely webb]

Worried about Perry now, he has more money than Gingrich. Too bad there are no more debates where he can shine at naming the three departments he will abolish.

[rich34]

Oh and any chance Johnson drops out and endorses Paul? I know he's not polling much , but 1 to 2% could mean a lot.

[VBRonPaulFan]

Bachmann is to egotistical to drop out. In fact, I'd be shocked. If so, it could get close. The socialcons carried Huckabee. With all the candidates running ads against Ron now maybe he needs to target Mitt and Perry. We can't let them get into arms reach and if they do that's when u knock them TFO...

i don't think bachmann has a choice. from what i'm hearing she's running out of cash... if she doesn't do unexpectedly well in iowa (like 2nd place or better) she probably wont be able to fund a campaign anymore...

[rich34]

Worried about Perry now, he has more money than Gingrich. Too bad there are no more debates where he can shine at naming the three departments he will abolish.

The bad thing is we've done seen what the socialcons are capable of. Propelled Huckabee to victory out of no where and that was against Mitt's millions and his machine he built up in Iowa in 08.

[JakeH]

Oh and any chance Johnson drops out and endorses Paul? I know he's not polling much , but 1 to 2% could mean a lot.

He dropped out and is running for the LP nomination. If that 1-2% hadn't already jumped ship to Paul, I doubt they're going to do it now.

[rich34]

i don't think bachmann has a choice. from what i'm hearing she's running out of cash... if she doesn't do unexpectedly well in iowa (like 2nd place or better) she probably wont be able to fund a campaign anymore...

I just meant she won't drop out before the caucus. We might need to get some ads going against Perry. Newt is done with no org., but having all the churches backing you now that's a machine that can contend.

[SpicyTurkey]

This is interesting. Hope we can approach the older folks. If we manage to convert some of them, then we would be comfortably in the lead.

[Epic]

In latest PPP poll, 12% of Johnson supporters have a 2nd choice of Paul. 34% weren't sure. No Johnson voters sampled had a 2nd choice of Romney or Gingrich. Johnson dropping out definitely helps us I think.

[South Park Fan]

The bad thing is we've done seen what the socialcons are capable of. Propelled Huckabee to victory out of no where and that was against Mitt's millions and his machine he built up in Iowa in 08.

Huckabee gained momentum from coming second in the Ames straw poll and gradually picked up support until he became the frontrunner in late November. That gave social conservatives over a month to coalesce around their candidate. Compare that to now, where social conservatives are torn between Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum, and all three candidates have slight momentum with a mere two weeks until the caucuses. Unless one of them surges into contention with Paul and Romney, I suspect that the social conservatives will simply coalesce around the most popular candidate in their precinct.

[RonPaulRules]

I love this, Cause we know Ron isnt in first cause of the media like everyone else was. Ron is in first in spite of the media.

[Sunstruck-Eden]

I'm so happy right now!!!! Is it odd that I'm a bit more excited for the Iowa caucus than Christmas?

[KEEF]

I'm so happy right now!!!! Is it odd that I'm a bit more excited for the Iowa caucus than Christmas?

I second that. All I want for Christmas is my two front teeth, my two front teeth, my ... Oh yeah and for Ron Paul to dominate the Iowa Caucus, win NH, and get the rest of the undecided onto his front.

[Feeding the Abscess]

yes, and i want flyers to say exactly that. that he wants to take care of those currently dependent by cutting the military, while the others want to increase the military and won't be able to take care of those currently dependent. we are polling less than 9% in the group that will like this message.

Just about the best possible way to go about it.

[kylejack]

Perry jumped hugely. Let's watch the other polls for signs of this. So far, this is the only one like that.
Well, those Newt dropouts had to go somewhere. We picked up some of them, but I had a feeling another not-Romney would rise.

[milo10]

I would absolutely love for Perry to beat Romney for 2nd place in Iowa. 3rd place in Iowa would have to hurt Romney in New Hampshire, and we need all the help we can get if we want to win that state.

Perry will be destroyed in NH. Plus we have more debates after Iowa. :D