Thinking about South Carolina...

[Okie RP fan]

Well, let's win Iowa and New Hampshire first, but some have already been discussing what our chances are in South Carolina. I've stated a couple times that it may be better to just ride the momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire (assuming we place 2nd or better in both) and let it go on by itself in SC, because SC has been made into the neocon bastion for this election.

I think it's smarter to not spend quite as much money in SC as we should in FL or NV, personally.

BUT, if we do decide to hammer SC, what would be better than a striking new ad about Ron's foreign policy? One that is hard hitting, and, most importantly, TRUE. One on the level of serial hypocrisy, one that would make people think "whoa, I was wrong all along."


First, we need to get back to Iowa and New Hampshire. Let's keep pushing and not get comfortable. I just wanted to see what everybody else thought real quick about this issue and whether we should contact the campaign about it or not.

[zHorns]

I'm not sure even FL is worth it. We are polling so low there.

It would be nice to win Iowa, NH, ride the momentum and place in the top 3 in SC and maybe top 4 in FL then win NV.

[ross11988]

We win NH and IOWA we WILL WIN SC. How can we not? You really think SC will vote for Romney? Gingrich will be done, Perry will still be in but he cant compete.

[wgadget]

I wish Ron would visit SC soon..I need to meet him again. ;)

I think SC and FL are very similar--both bastions of the defense industry. If the momentum against more WAR keeps up though as it has recently, this may end up being inconsequential.

[Canderson]

Win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and the February caucuses will carry us into the lead. If South Carolina and Florida go to different candidates then our opposition will remain highly divided and we should pull out with the nomination.

[TheDriver]

We're going to get crushed in SC. And if candidates start dropping out, we're going to get crushed, anywhere, according to that PPP poll. Only 9% of voters supporting other candidates, support Ron Paul as number 2.

[Elwar]

Grassroots in the Southeast should focus on SC and FL but the campaign should focus on their own strategy.

[Okie RP fan]

Win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and the February caucuses will carry us into the lead. If South Carolina and Florida go to different candidates then our opposition will remain highly divided and we should pull out with the nomination.

This is what I think.

I say after Iowa and New Hampshire, we pull straight to Nevada.

But even so, we need a foreign policy ad a.s.a.p. A foreign policy ad will send Ron over the top because people will be able to see the truth. And it'll be up to us to make it go viral on the level of serial hypocrisy.


Grassroots in the Southeast should focus on SC and FL but the campaign should focus on their own strategy.

Good way of putting it. I agree with this. The campaign needs to shift away from SC and FL, I believe. Let the grassroots do what they can. I just don't believe the money will be worth it in SC when we can use it to dominate states like Nevada.

[Canderson]

Even without actively campaigning there, wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will give us 10 to 20% of the vote in S. Carolina which throws a few delegates our way. We need a 'Crony Capitalism' ad against Romney for NH and Nevada and we need Bachmann out before Minnesota and Perry out before Texas.

[Canderson]

I say after Iowa and New Hampshire, we pull straight to Nevada.



I agree completely, I hope the campaign doesn't waste to much time in South Carolina and they shouldn't even try in Florida. Three of the first five would be legendary

[South Park Fan]

We should make sure we have an adequate ground game in SC in the event that we are able to obtain sufficient momentum from the first two contests. As people have mentioned earlier, falling short of a win would still give us delegates if we can have a good showing.

[Badger for Paul]

Isn't Florida winner take all? If the odds of winning it are small, which I think they probably are, it makes no difference whether Paul comes in 2nd or 5th in the state in terms of number of delegates. That is why I doubt many resources will be put into Florida.

[Okie RP fan]

Well, what does everyone think about a foreign policy ad that I mentioned?

I think it could resonate really well, and could be used any time during the season. I really think we need to start letting the campaign know that we need a foreign policy ad to start airing and use throughout the election season.

[ronpaulfollower999]

You guys realize that South Carolina is HUGE for the media? Its picked the eventual nominee for like 30 years now or something like that.

I still think we can pull an upset in SC and FL

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

[ThePiousPriest]

I have yet to really see someone be "enthusiastic" about Romney down here.Gingrich is subject to the pump and dump cycle and not everyone is thrilled about him. I'm in the Upstate, almost Neocon central. South Carolina can be won, it is just a matter of the campaign becoming more active down here than they are. All of the candidates except Ron Paul has been on newsradio WORD, the local talk radio station here. South Carolina can be won, as we have a high population of active and retired military veterans. Ron Paul also needs to show down here that he isn't some "free spirit libertine" like the media portrays him to be. Him showing how a smaller government actually benefits churches and families would pretty much seal the deal for a victory here. Referencing his "family values" speeches here is important.

[Xenophage]

I don't think South Carolina would be any less likely to support us than Iowa. It's just a matter of campaigning. The campaign has been working Iowa rather hard, and it's thanks to them that Ron's where he's at in the polls there.

I don't know how this will play out in the opening states, but I trust the campaign to focus where it needs to. They've shown themselves extremely well qualified, having run one of the most difficult campaigns and pulling into the polls like they have.

The grassroots needs to do what it's going to do regardless of the campaign. Ron Paul supporters in Florida and SC should be canvassing en masse! Everyone at home needs to be phoning from home!

[Pennsylvania]

SC is a great opportunity for Paul and should not be dismissed. The most important interpretation of the 2008 GOP Primary results is that there is a strong "anyone but Romney" sentiment there. I predict Paul will carry the state.

[ThePiousPriest]

South Carolina will be our "put up or shut up" state IMO. Should we come to victory here in SC, there will be no doubt that many conservatives are behind Ron Paul. The Primary is a little more than a month away and I am hoping they will make more stops here in SC.

[Len Larson]

How does not campaigning help us? We need to grab every opportunity we can. Yes, we may not win, but we can keep our momentum by doing better than expected.

[tremendoustie]

I say focus on winning IA and NH now, then go after SC. Don't worry about FL -- focus on SC and then NV.

[Badger Paul]

Only good showings in Iowa and New Hampshire will make it possible to have good showings in South Carolina and Florida. We have to be credible to voters first before they'll even consider us.

What I'm hoping is a lot of the "consetrvative" candidates continue their campaigns in South Carolina like Bachmann, Perry and Santorum thinking they can win down there running against Romney and Paul with Newt fading fast. This would help us a great deal in those southern states, a split field.

[hueylong]

Delegates. Delegates. Delegates. Remember, even "Winner Take All" states are often WTA by District, so even if we don't win Statewide -- if we win a Congressional District -- we win Delegates.

I am certain the Campaign is looking closely at this math when deciding where and when to commit resources. I am confident they are making solid choices.

[braane]

Must have at least 2nd in South Carolina.

[KingNothing]

The focus has to first be on winning Iowa. If we can lock that up, the focus shifts to New Hampshire. We've got to at least place second there. If we can do that, we might be able to win in South Carolina under the Not-Mitt-Romney banner. But first we've got to win Iowa and turn out strongly in New Hampshire.

[Clem Kadiddlehopper]

It makes no sense to simply preach to the choir. That's like going to a Ron Paul rally to recruit new converts. It's true that SC and Florida will be a challenge, but that's exactly why they matter. We're already hearing that the weather in Iowa will likely prompt a win for RP by default. New Hampshire is the "Live Free or Die" state, so a win there could possibly be dismissed as a result of prevailing sentiment. But a win in either SC or Florida would destroy any notion that RP's performance is just a fluke. Even if we don't win SC or Florida, we must have a good finish there to draw the kind of funding and other resources that will be needed for the remaining process.

[Elwar]

I run into tons of people here in Florida who support Ron Paul.

But not old people. And they vote.

[willwash]

How does not campaigning help us? We need to grab every opportunity we can. Yes, we may not win, but we can keep our momentum by doing better than expected.

Opportunity cost. If committing money and resources to campaigning hard for 2nd in SC costs us a win NV, it's an overall loss.

[wgadget]

Tweet from ByronYork:

New SC Palmetto Poll from Clemson: Gingrich 38, Romney 21, Paul 10, Perry 5, Bachmann 5, Huntsman 3, Santorum 2.


With 32% undecided.

[squirekyle]

I'm not sure even FL is worth it. We are polling so low there.

It would be nice to win Iowa, NH, ride the momentum and place in the top 3 in SC and maybe top 4 in FL then win NV.

The problem is that no candidate of the past 3 elections or so, has ever lost Florida to then go on to win the election, but then again, only one sitting house member ever made it to the White House. The odds on the outside are against us, but if we're supposed to win, we will. It's called: Against All Odds.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

How can we not?


Evangelicals. Huckleberry got over 50% in some counties here in a competitive 7-way race. You don't understand how many Bible Thumping God Squaders we have down here. Paul is only doing marginally better than 2008 here. The ground game here has been 100% grassroots... the official campaign has hardly touched the state. The official campaign has setup precinct canvassing of activists ... I think visited the crucial Upstate once ... hasn't been to the Grand Strand or Columbia suburbs (Lexington/Irmo) yet to my knowledge.... and those three areas are where Republicans get their votes to win this state.

[braane]

Opportunity cost. If committing money and resources to campaigning hard for 2nd in SC costs us a win NV, it's an overall loss.
I agree. I think we have to have 2nd in South Carolina, but we basically have to hope it's achieved by momentum.

[Elwar]

The problem is that no candidate of the past 3 elections or so, has ever lost Florida to then go on to win the election, but then again, only one sitting house member ever made it to the White House. The odds on the outside are against us, but if we're supposed to win, we will. It's called: Against All Odds.

Florida has not been a factor in the past because they are usually a later primary. The reason that the candidates that win Florida go on to win is the same reason that the candidate that wins the last state in the primary goes on to win. The candidate has always been decided early on.

[wide awake]

I posted this in another thread and is just anecdotal so take it for what it is worth but I think there is great opportunity in SC:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?337555-I-know-its-early-and-Iowa-is-key-but...&p=3854952#post3854952

[DRV45N05]

Obviously, a strong effort is needed in South Carolina because... well, it's the South Carolina Primary. But I wouldn't rate Paul's chances highly there.

We'll definitely see a couple of candidates drop out after Iowa. One of Perry, Bachmann, or Santorum could get a golden ticket if one could finish in the top-3. At least two of them will drop out. If Gingrich doesn't finish top-3 in Iowa or New Hampshire, he is gone. So by the time we get to South Carolina, it will probably be Romney, Paul, and at least one or two of Gingrich, Huntsman, Perry, Santorum, or Bachmann. If Perry is still in, I would give him a better shot of winning South Carolina than Paul.

The one factor that could play into Paul's favor would be if he was able to secure a top endorsement. If Jim DeMint- who is on great terms with Dr. Paul- were to muster the courage to endorse him, then that would be a massive game changer. But aside from that, Romney has the organization of the Governor working for him.

[Darthbrooklyn]

I wish Paul would come out with a statement acknowledging peoples reservations about him like, " I know many people think my foreign policy is crazy/kooky/nutty/outof the mainstream, but i want to address those fears by saying x, x, x, "

[icon124]

I don't know about SC....seeing that they love Graham that state scares the crap out of me...I don't think I want to bother with anyone like that lol