PPP asks "Do folks want to see our NH or natl' GOP poll first"?

[PatriotOne]

Is everyone sitting down? Sounds like they have them both ready to release.

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

[coastie]

Is everyone sitting down? Sounds like they have them both ready to release.

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls


Wonder why...maybe there's a "surprise" in them?

[zHorns]

I'm asking for the NH first.

[limequat]

NH, please.

[PatriotOne]

Wonder why...maybe there's a "surprise" in them?

Those were my words...not PPP's. This was their tweet:

"Do folks want to see our NH or natl' GOP poll first"?

[tremendoustie]

NH!

[PatriotOne]

Tweet em NH if you got an account.

[dfalken]

Let's see national first as we pretty much know RP will be in the low double digits there and at this point is somewhat irrelevant. Let's save the real surprise for last!!!

[ronpaulfollower999]

Lol...I'm telling you ppp knows they have a group of people here neurotically waiting for these polls. They are all huddled around their computers making fun of us.

And I'd like New Hampshire btw. :p

[Aratus]

NH

[hazek]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
The biggest mistake you can make in polling Iowa is assuming that what happened last time will happen again in terms of who turns out



Hmmm what is that suppose to mean??

[Bobster]

Lol...I'm telling you ppp knows they have a group of people here neurotically waiting for these polls. They are all huddled around their computers making fun of us.

And I'd like New Hampshire btw. :p
I'm okay with this.

[hazek]

Ah I see:


Our Iowa poll is close enough that I think either Paul or Romney could truly be in 1st. I have zero doubt Newt has fallen to 3rd though
18 seconds ago

[dfalken]

More evidence Newt's falling apart- 42/51 fav/unfav with New Hampshire Republican voters

[IndianaPolitico]

Hmmm what is that suppose to mean??
I think they took some heat from some republican voters, for putting in independents and democrats, even though there is no democratic caucus this year.

[PatriotOne]

Lol...I'm telling you ppp knows they have a group of people here neurotically waiting for these polls. They are all huddled around their computers making fun of us.

And I'd like New Hampshire btw. :p

No kidding. Another teaser:

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
More evidence Newt's falling apart- 42/51 fav/unfav with New Hampshire Republican voters

[Todd]

I'm asking for the NH first.
Yep...

National can change in a heartbeat if someone they don't expect wins this. :cool:

[zHorns]

PPP: Mitt's so strong in New Hampshire that he's even winning the birthers, 37-24 over Newt

Eh...

[PatriotOne]

New tweet. What the heck does this mean? Don't they know yet?

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Our Iowa poll is close enough that I think either Paul or Romney could truly be in 1st. I have zero doubt Newt has fallen to 3rd though
10 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[Diurdi]

New tweet. What the heck does this mean? Don't they know yet? Margin of Error. You can't draw any definite conclusions about who is first in reality - Paul or Romney. But the PPP guy seems to be confident that Gingrich has fallen behind them both in reality.

[wgadget]

LOL...Come on, guys. EVERYONE knows that PPP polls are fluff.

http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2011/12/19/debunking-ppp-in-iowa/

[PatriotOne]

Margin of Error. You can't draw any definite conclusions about who is first in reality - Paul or Romney. But the PPP guy seems to be confident that Gingrich has fallen behind them both in reality.

I hope it's close enough to be within the margin of error but since they are referencing the Iowa poll I'm not sure that is what they meant. I'm wondering if they are still crunching the numbers for NH and it won't be out till later today.

[brandon]

Mitt's so strong in New Hampshire that he's even winning the birthers, 37-24 over Newt...

[PatriotOne]

New tweet. Anyone remember where he was at last time? I think Perry's base belongs to us.

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Rick Perry is at 2% in New Hampshire
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

[Jtorsella]

New tweet. Anyone remember where he was at last time? I think Perry's base belongs to us.

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Rick Perry is at 2% in New Hampshire
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply
All his vote are belong to us.

[zHorns]

ppppolls: Rick Perry is at 2% in New Hampshire

Haha

[dfalken]

Romney 80% in New Hampshire on Intrade now, seems he might have gone back up in the polls :(

[trey4sports]

im predicting a big lead for Romney in NH.

[ross11988]

Im predicting 33% Romney, Paul 24% Gingrich 14% Huntsman 12%

[PatriotOne]

Hmmmmm.....looks like Perry's base is spread fairly evenly as their seconday choice in the Iowa poll:

RP - 24%
MR - 22%
NG - 24%

But since Gingrich fell, his base is going to Mitt possibly (if Iowa is any indicator):

MR - 44%
RP - 10%

Okay. I'm getting a headache crunching numbers. Bring out the NH poll already :p

[No Free Beer]

NH Prediction:

1st - Romney 33%
2nd - Paul 22%
3rd - Newt 14%
4th - Huntsman

[wstrucke]

we need to start running Romney commercials. Newt is falling, it's time. I would say Bachmann coming back up in the polls on our tails is a little scary too.

[mwkaufman]

New tweet. Anyone remember where he was at last time? I think Perry's base belongs to us.

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Rick Perry is at 2% in New Hampshire
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

This raises his RCP NH average. :eek:

[Canderson]

IF the campaign runs 'crony capitalist' ads incessantly in NH and Nevada we might be able to win this. Hopefully S. Carolina and Florida are won by different candidates.

[hazek]

we need to start running Romney commercials. Newt is falling, it's time. I would say Bachmann coming back up in the polls on our tails is a little scary too.

Don't forget there's an election and two more debates between now and NH primary.. :)

[Austin]

Prediction for NH
Romney: 36%
Paul: 22%
Gingrich: 18%
Hunstman: 12%

[ronpaulfollower999]

10 minutes...

[pauliticalfan]

10 minutes folks

[hazek]

10min!


ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
New Hampshire out in next 10 minutes or so
17 seconds ago

[cdc482]

Prediction for NH
Romney: 36%
Paul: 22%
Gingrich: 18%
Hunstman: 12%
No way!

1 Paul
2 Romney
3 Others

[hazek]

My prediction:
Mitt Romney - 35%
Ron Paul - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 17%
Jon Huntsman - 14%

[hazek]

No way!

1 Paul
2 Romney
3 Others

Not after they said this an hour ago:

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Mitt's so strong in New Hampshire that he's even winning the birthers, 37-24 over Newt

[ronpaulfollower999]

Its out:

Romney 35
Paul 19
Gingrich 17
Huntsman 13
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Perry 2
Johnson 1

[cdc482]

10 minutes. Well so much for leaving my computer...

[PatriotOne]

10 minutes :eek:

MR - 30
RP - 27
NG - 14

[ross11988]

Its out:

Romney 35
Paul 19
Gingrich 17
Huntsman 13
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Perry 2
Johnson 1

Not horrible.

[ventron]

My prediction:
Mitt Romney - 35%
Ron Paul - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 17%
Jon Huntsman - 14%

Ooh, you were so very close! :)

[hazek]

Ooh, you were so very close! :)

Yeah, wish Ron got more but basically we have a fifth of the vote on lock down. Now we just need some of the big MO.

[ronpaulfollower999]

PPP- Newt falling apart. Favorability ratings worse than the one in April.

[tremendoustie]

Its out:

Romney 35
Paul 19
Gingrich 17
Huntsman 13
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Perry 2
Johnson 1

Ouch. We've got our work cut out for us.

[cdc482]

Kind of a bummer, but a solid second is good for now. We'll win Iowa, and peak in NH right on election day.

[PatriotOne]

Its out:

Romney 35
Paul 19
Gingrich 17
Huntsman 13
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Perry 2
Johnson 1

Ugh. Time to go after Mitt in NH.

[bluesc]

Ouch. We've got our work cut out for us.

"Ouch"? The results are great. Stop being so negative.

[Canderson]

'Crony Capitalism' attack ad against Romney needed for NH and Nevada!!!!!

[PatriotOne]

Live Free or Die State? WTH is wrong with them?

[brooks009]

I think this is good for us. We are in 2nd. Lets get to work... like we did in Iowa.

[ronpaulfollower999]

PPP: Romney advantage in NH pretty thorough- seen as running best campaign, most electable, likely winner

[ronpaulfollower999]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable .................................................. ...... 53%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 38%
Notsure........................................... ............... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_12191118.pdf

[truthdivides]

I think our numbers will increase at least a little with a good showing in Iowa.

[low preference guy]

ads with a few quotes of Romney supporting the bailout the entire week before election day might fix this.

[RPsupporterAtHeart]

If Ron can close those numbers to within 10 points it will do well for him in the primaries following.

[bluesc]

ads with a few quotes of Romney supporting the bailout the entire week before election day might fix this.

Our attack ads are brutal. We can bring him back down to earth easily.

[hazek]

Paul gets a second place finish to complement his lead in Iowa and he's doing it with a similar formula in the Granite State. Among voters under 45 he's running only slightly behind Romney at 30-25. And with non-Republicans he's practically running even, getting 25% to 26% for Romney and 22% for Huntsman.

Goes to show we only have to hit Romney on who's more republican.. to get the old republican establishment vote.

EDIT: this is also very important:


Because it seems like there's some possibility Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum could come to the end of their roads in Iowa we also tested a 4 way GOP contest between just Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman. In that scenario Romney gets 37% to 21% for Paul, 20% for Gingrich, and 15% for Huntsman. It wouldn't change the nature of the race much if those folks dropped out because they have so little support in New Hampshire to begin with.

[tremendoustie]

"Ouch"? The results are great. Stop being so negative.

15% down is an improvement over some past polls, but it's not great. Our goal is to win NH. We're doing great in IA, but we need to push hard in NH to bring us within striking distance.

[tremendoustie]

Our attack ads are brutal. We can bring him back down to earth easily.

Yep -- I hope they've got some really great ones ready to go. The question is, do we wait until after IA to fire, or do they need more time to work effectively?

I'd say start after christmas -- maybe around wednesday next week. That'll give us two solid weeks of airplay in NH.

[cdc482]

Ya 15% is a big climb to make.

[bluesc]

15% down is an improvement over some past polls, but it's not great. Our goal is to win NH. We're doing great in IA, but we need to push hard in NH to bring us within striking distance.

Winning Iowa will put is within striking distance. The ads may push us over the top, along with boots on the ground and people phoning from home as much as possible.

[hazek]

Man 50% of the asked said they watched the debate, that's quite the viewership.

We also win the "Do you think the candidate has strong principles?" question with 69-51 Romney who is 2nd best.

[cdc482]

Yep -- I hope they've got some really great ones ready to go. The question is, do we wait until after IA to fire, or do they need more time to work effectively?

I think that waiting till after Iowa is best. Voters will be soften up by an RP win in Iowa, and the ads will hit the message home.

[daviddee]

...

[tremendoustie]

Gentlemen,

This is a marathon and not a sprint.

With that said, a respectable 2nd place in NH would be fine.

Mitt is from MA, has a house in NH, etc etc. Home field/court advantage.

If Dr Paul wins Iowa and places strong in Mitt's "home state" that will be fine.

The states that need massive attention are: SC and Florida.

It'll be easier for us to win NH than SC, and certainly easier than FL, imo.

I really think we want to win at least one of the three -- and if we win NH, it makes competing in SC a lot easier.

I really think winning NH outright has got to be a priority.