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View Full Version : NYT Iowa Trend Forecast: Paul 24, Romney 21, Gingrich 16, Perry 11, Bachmann 11




da32130
12-19-2011, 07:57 AM
edit: this may just be a forecast, not a poll(sorry about the title):

https://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/148640169606643712

update(full blog posting):

"In Mr. Paul’s case, it may now be as important to watch his New Hampshire polls as those in Iowa. Our New Hampshire forecasts now give Mr. Paul about a 17 percent chance of winning the state, but those odds would improve with a win in Iowa. Although Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul win Iowa rather than a candidate like Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Perry who had a potentially broader base of support, all bets would be off if Mr. Paul won New Hampshire too."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/

UtahApocalypse
12-19-2011, 07:58 AM
I feel like I am still asleep and dreaming.......

bluesc
12-19-2011, 07:58 AM
That's not a poll. It's just a tweet from an idiot who thinks he can predict elections. Now it's becoming clear to the establishment that Ron is going to win Iowa, he is predicting it. He's late to the party.

Student Of Paulism
12-19-2011, 07:58 AM
Heh awesome....what a week this is going to be! WHO'S PSYCHED!!??

da32130
12-19-2011, 08:01 AM
That's not a poll. It's just a tweet from an idiot who thinks he can predict elections. Now it's becoming clear to the establishment that Ron is going to win Iowa, he is predicting it. He's late to the party.

Sorry about that. I realized it right after I posted.

CaptUSA
12-19-2011, 08:03 AM
I think Paul will out-perform this guy's predictions.

I really hope the campaign unleashes Carol this week. She is the clincher.

ross11988
12-19-2011, 08:04 AM
Am I in Limbo!

Travlyr
12-19-2011, 08:06 AM
I think Paul will out-perform this guy's predictions.

I really hope the campaign unleashes Carol this week. She is the clincher.
Yep, Carol could seal the deal.

Aratus
12-19-2011, 08:09 AM
Rand Paul could seal the deal with three big rallies in Iowa
before he heads on up to New Hampshire and then boosts
the morale of Shemdogg and everyone who are all up there.

da32130
12-19-2011, 08:48 AM
added to top:

update(full blog posting):

"In Mr. Paul’s case, it may now be as important to watch his New Hampshire polls as those in Iowa. Our New Hampshire forecasts now give Mr. Paul about a 17 percent chance of winning the state, but those odds would improve with a win in Iowa. Although Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul win Iowa rather than a candidate like Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Perry who had a potentially broader base of support, all bets would be off if Mr. Paul won New Hampshire too."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/

yoshimaroka
12-19-2011, 08:52 AM
1 Phone from home

2 3 big Rand Paul Rallies
3 Carol Paul
4 Make sure we have people on location verifying and tweeting election results as they happen.

5 Shift attention to NH and Romney. Gingrich is done.

low preference guy
12-19-2011, 08:55 AM
That's not a poll. It's just a tweet from an idiot who thinks he can predict elections. Now it's becoming clear to the establishment that Ron is going to win Iowa, he is predicting it. He's late to the party.

the guy is an idiot but he has a model. as the data changes, the prediction of the model changes. he isn't just saying RP will win because others are saying it.

rawful
12-19-2011, 08:58 AM
Does anyone else get annoyed when journalists refer to him as mister when they know he's a doctor?

brandon
12-19-2011, 09:14 AM
It's just a tweet from an idiot who thinks he can predict elections. Now it's becoming clear to the establishment that Ron is going to win Iowa, he is predicting it. He's late to the party.

I thought the article was a really good analysis and read. I wouldn't call him an idiot.

brandon
12-19-2011, 09:16 AM
Does anyone else get annoyed when journalists refer to him as mister when they know he's a doctor?

I really liked the author's tone and how he called everyone Mr. or Mrs. It just sounded professional. I think using Dr. to refer to someone who isn't a practicing medical doctor or university professor is pretty pretentious.

low preference guy
12-19-2011, 09:19 AM
Does anyone else get annoyed when journalists refer to him as mister when they know he's a doctor?

he referred to everyone that way. i like it better when they just use their names, like Ron Paul, Rick Perry.

musicmax
12-19-2011, 09:25 AM
It's just a tweet from an idiot who thinks he can predict elections.

Silver is not an idiot. He's one of the few pundits to point out - using actual data - that Paul is the most conservative candidate in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?_r=4&pagewanted=4

musicmax
12-19-2011, 09:34 AM
I really liked the author's tone and how he called everyone Mr. or Mrs. It just sounded professional. I think using Dr. to refer to someone who isn't a practicing medical doctor or university professor is pretty pretentious.

It's the NYT's style to call everyone "Mr." or "Mrs." just as it's the debate moderators' tradition to address each candidate using the title of the highest office they've held even if they don't hold it anymore (Congressman Paul, Congresswoman Bachmann, Governor Romney/Huntsman, Speaker Gingrich, Senator Santorum, etc.).

Gingrich has a Ph.D. so he's technically entitled to the "Dr." honorific as well.