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View Full Version : One of the most encouraging articles to date! RCP




Rafi
12-19-2011, 06:36 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/19/can_ron_paul_win_new_hampshire_112436.html


Ron Paul can win New Hampshire because he can win the Iowa caucuses. (Intraders think thatís unlikely but not implausible, giving Paul's Iowa victory a 32.5 percent chance.) New Hampshirites have never felt it necessary to follow the Iowa caucus-goers, but the dynamics of the race make their state a likely second pickup.

If those two unexpected events do occur, then all hell will rain down upon the Paulistas. The GOP establishment will throw everything including the kitchen sink, the garage door opener, and two dozen pair of oversized baboon dentures at Paul to keep him from becoming the nominee.


Then, New Hampshire. Here is what the Granite State looks like right now, according to the RCP Average. Romney is at +10.8 percent, still hanging on to a much-eroded lead (his total poll share is 33.8 percent). Gingrich is in second (23 percent), Paul third (16 percent) and Jon Huntsman fourth (10.5 percent).

All of that would matter very little the minute Paul wins Iowa. If he can beat Gingrich there, the real contest in New Hampshire will be between Paul's defiant leave-us-alone-and-bring-the-troops-home Republicanism and Romney's managerial competence. Paul seems a better fit for New Hampshire voters, and Iowa can remove the taint of unelectability (see Obama, Barack).

bluesc
12-19-2011, 06:41 AM
Awesome read :). For the last couple of weeks it is becoming more apparent that Ron may just win NH. I hope the campaign is throwing a chunk of their resources at it.

Drudged.

Drex
12-19-2011, 06:48 AM
First sentence made me laugh haha