After Ron Paul Wins Iowa...

[Paul4Prez]

We will all be celebrating like mad, but most likely Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire a week later, and the Establishment will rally around Romney. Then South Carolina and Florida, two states where Ron Paul has struggled, will hold high profile primaries, and the national media narrative will be that Ron Paul was a one trick pony. Which makes it critical that we win the following four contests (all caucuses): Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota, to get back in the spotlight. Then there's only Arizona, Michigan (Romney central), and Washington before Super Tuesday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Cale ndar


Date State/Territory Type Delegates

January 3, 2012 Iowa caucus 28

January 10, 2012 New Hampshire primary 12

January 21, 2012 South Carolina primary 25

January 31, 2012 Florida primary 50

February 4, 2012 Nevada caucus 28

February 4–11, 2012 Maine caucus 24

February 7, 2012 Colorado caucus 36

February 7, 2012 Minnesota caucus 40

February 28, 2012 Arizona primary 29

February 28, 2012 Michigan primary 30

March 3, 2012 Washington caucus 43

I'm thinking we can do very well in Arizona and win Washington.

[nbruno322]

The latest polls are very encouraging, but...

He hasn't won anything yet...

Don't get arrogant/complacent there is a lot of work to do.

Let's keep focused and make this happen. At the very least, the attack dogs are going to be out in full force, we must be ready to refute them swiftly and effectively and redouble our efforts elsewhere.

[ConsideringRonPaul]

Don;t count ron out in NH

[Paul4Prez]

The latest polls are very encouraging, but...

He hasn't won anything yet...

Don't get arrogant/complacent there is a lot of work to do.

Let's keep focused and make this happen. At the very least, the attack dogs are going to be out in full force, we must be ready to refute them swiftly and effectively and redouble our efforts elsewhere.

Agreed. Not trying to assume anything, just reminding people that even if we win Iowa, there's a long road ahead.

[jclay2]

op, this is good to keep in mind. It looks like a strong focus on iowa and new hampshire is best. If we can win both of those primaries, we will likely be able to carry the momentum to South Carolina. Florida will probably be a bit tricky, but who knows, the old people might flock to paul like McCain in 08.

[gerryb]

The states after FL are all winnable if we continue following up with the success of phone from home in each of those states.

We need more callers, though, it's a busy schedule.

[aSwedishSupporter]

As you say, Washington caucus is especially important since it is the last state before super Tuesday. And it comes directly after Romneys home state Michigan.

I agree that it looks good after Florida with Nevada and Maine. Ron Paul got 14% and 19% there 2008, which was high above average then. But the winner of Floridas winner-takes-all 50 delegates will have an advantage up until super Tuesday. If Ron Paul gets 40% of other delegates, the guy who wins Florida only needs 23% on average in other states to have as many delegates as Ron Paul before super Tuesday.

Before super Tuesday 15% of delegates are voted for. During super Tuesday another 19% are voted for. It is an important day.

[abstrusezincate]

The key to this campaign is sort of like an inverted Obama '08. Paul needs to win and win lots of delegates in blue states. Where independents can vote, they should be targeted, and where Democrats have to switch, outreach should happen. I doubt the campaign has the money or resources to focus the net that widely, but if the grassroots did and was successful in self-organizing, it could make a huge difference if the race stays close.

To win, I think Paul needs this to stay a three person race. But that very much could happen between Romney, not Romney, and him. With the winner take all states late in the game, it could be done.

The establishment will not play fair, and there is no way in hell they'd pick Paul from a brokered convention. So you need to win outright. Finding states with uncommitted delegates, whatever it takes.

[Kuthreck]

As you say, Washington caucus is especially important since it is the last state before super Tuesday. And it comes directly after Romneys home state Michigan.

I agree that it looks good after Florida with Nevada and Maine. Ron Paul got 14% and 19% there 2008, which was high above average then. But the winner of Floridas winner-takes-all 50 delegates will have an advantage up until super Tuesday. If Ron Paul gets 40% of other delegates, the guy who wins Florida only needs 23% on average in other states to have as many delegates as Ron Paul before super Tuesday.

Before super Tuesday 15% of delegates are voted for. During super Tuesday another 19% are voted for. It is an important day.

Remember Florida's Government LOST half their delegates for the people this year by moving their primary up.

[QE Is Theft]

Don;t count ron out in NH

Exactly.

Remember, the majority of these polls showing Romney ahead are RIGGED.

Ron's true NH numbers are much higher.

[White Bear Lake]

Exactly.

Remember, the majority of these polls showing Romney ahead are RIGGED.

Ron's true NH numbers are much higher.

But the polls showing Ron ahead in Iowa aren't rigged for some reason? More often than not the polls are right; the pollsters' reputations rest on them getting them right. You need to know that most polling companies make their money off of internal polls for campaigns. The polls they release to the public are more like publicity stunts to try and raise their profile. If they release a poll, it usually gets them some free press. If campaigns see a polling firm is accurate on their public polls, they're more likely to hire that firm. Therefore firms have a vested interest in making sure polls are as accurate as possible. And with modern statistics, polls more likely than not are quite accurate. You need to trust them.

That being said, I still think we can NH. Winning Iowa should give us enough momentum to propel up to Romney there. But we need to work for it.

And this Minnesotan is ready to help deliver my state for Paul after we win Iowa and NH.

Let's do this!

[Okie RP fan]

The latest polls are very encouraging, but...

He hasn't won anything yet...

Don't get arrogant/complacent there is a lot of work to do.

Let's keep focused and make this happen. At the very least, the attack dogs are going to be out in full force, we must be ready to refute them swiftly and effectively and redouble our efforts elsewhere.

This. Now is the time to push even harder and further.

[CaptainAmerica]

the MSM are poised to discredit any Iowa win unless its Romney or Gingrich.

[abstrusezincate]

I think he has to pull the double to be taken seriously. But it can be done.

[Delivered4000]

If we win IOWA, we'll have a whole week to work on winning NH.

NEVER GIVE UP and you best start believing we can win in NH too, and the primary eventually

[Delivered4000]

I'm starting to believe that the people are ready for the Message, they're beginning to respond

[Unknown.User]

Winning Iowa + Phoning + Ad Bomb -> Win NH -> Win SC

[Muwahid]

If ron wins NH we're good I think. They're gonna try the "Iowa doesn't count" narrative for sure, he needs to win NH too, and if he wins SC, it's undeniable.

[Paul or not at all]

We need to win IA first.

[cdc482]

We will all be celebrating like mad, but most likely Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire a week later, and the Establishment will rally around Romney. Then South Carolina and Florida, two states where Ron Paul has struggled, will hold high profile primaries, and the national media narrative will be that Ron Paul was a one trick pony. Which makes it critical that we win the following four contests (all caucuses): Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Minnesota, to get back in the spotlight. Then there's only Arizona, Michigan (Romney central), and Washington before Super Tuesday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012#Cale ndar



I'm thinking we can do very well in Arizona and win Washington.

I think we could win NH. If we win both, we're pretty much guaranteed the nomination.

[LeJimster]

Exactly.

Remember, the majority of these polls showing Romney ahead are RIGGED.

Ron's true NH numbers are much higher.

I don't think the Polls are rigged. But I don't think they're reflective of his true support with independents, democrats and younger voters. So my belief is we are closer to 30% in reality in Iowa right now and closer to 25% in NH.

[scrosnoe]

I think we could win NH. If we win both, we're pretty much guaranteed the nomination.

there are no guarantees anywhere along this process; power doesn't go down easy and people challenging the powers that be must be tenacious and steady as a rock

i know we are; just saying...

keep your eyes focused on the goal -- restoring the republic -- at every step of the political ladder

be ever vigilant

be ever watchful

be wise as serpents and gentle as doves

be prayerful as well -- because the blessings of the Almighty are to be appreciated above all that man can bestow!

[Paul4Prez]

Yes, we need to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire, but people in the states after that need to start getting ready (or continue what they're already up to.)