PPP: Gingrich Fading, Now Maybe Third in Iowa

[RonPaulFanInGA]

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/148117022646087680


Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline

[tremendoustie]

Hot darn!

[ronpaulfollower999]

Hope Romney isn't going back up in NH. Would also really hate to see a Huntsman surge there.

[eric4186]

...and quite possibly down to third in Iowa

:D:D:D

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

[sailingaway]

yeah, ok, Mitt is next to fade, or Mitt now is in first? Because I think their last had Ron in first, but if they are trading firsts within a point or so, it is really statistical noise, I guess.

--
oops, that is national, I was thinking of Iowa.

[Jeremy Tyler]

wooo!!!! who is first? Mitt or Paul?

[braane]

Heck yeah! *Crosses fingers*

Ron in first would be amazing.

[tremendoustie]

The 3rd in Iowa is great news -- I can't see Romney with a significant lead over Paul -- nor can I see whatever support he's got showing up enthusiastically on caucus day. Heck, maybe Paul will be 1st!

[ronpaulfollower999]

Don't like the #mittisnextinline tag either.

Keep calling and donating!

[Karsten]

That's good ONLY if Romney is 2nd.

[erowe1]

Would also really hate to see a Huntsman surge there.

Anything that keeps Romney from having a decisive lead in NH helps Paul.

[tremendoustie]

yeah, ok, Mitt is next to fade, or Mitt now is in first? Because I think their last had Ron in first, but if they are trading firsts within a point or so, it is really statistical noise, I guess.

Their last had Paul 2nd, within one point of first, which was newt, if I recall.

[pauliticalfan]

We need to shift our focus to Romney. He's clearly surging, could very well be first in Iowa. I hope the campaign has an attack ad ready to go against him. If Romney wins in Iowa, he's gonna be hard to stop in New Hampshire.

[trey4sports]

interesting. Hopefully the hashtag is a national reference and not an Iowa reference.

[trey4sports]

yeah, ok, Mitt is next to fade, or Mitt now is in first? Because I think their last had Ron in first, but if they are trading firsts within a point or so, it is really statistical noise, I guess.

--
oops, that is national, I was thinking of Iowa.


im pretty sure they are saying that Mitt is the next national frontrunner.

[bluesc]

They said there were early signs of Bachmann tying with Ron and Mitt for 2nd in Iowa.. Turned out Ron was tied for first. Don't take their early predictions too seriously. It'd be nice to see Ron in first though.

[sailingaway]

Anything that keeps Romney from having a decisive lead in NH helps Paul.

disagree. Independents seem to be picking H or RP and H's numbers being negligible makes that almost a default pick.

[ronpaulfollower999]

But then remember the early PPP tweet that said Iowa was a 3 way tie between Paul-Romney-Gingrich.

[sailingaway]

They said there were early signs of Bachmann tying with Ron and Mitt for 2nd in Iowa.. Turned out Ron was tied for first. Don't take their early predictions too seriously. It'd be nice to see Ron in first though.

this is looking at day two numbers. The MB was after first day. Each day is more close to what the final numbers will be.

[erowe1]

disagree. Independents seem to be picking H or RP and H's numbers being negligible makes that almost a default pick.

Really? I thought Huntsman and Romney were practically clones.

[eric4186]

That's good ONLY if Romney is 2nd.

ah, as long as Romney doesn't surge I think it's good. If we go into the caucuses with Romney and Paul in a dead heat I'd bet we overperform

[trey4sports]

They said there were early signs of Bachmann tying with Ron and Mitt for 2nd in Iowa.. Turned out Ron was tied for first. Don't take their early predictions too seriously. It'd be nice to see Ron in first though.


But then remember the early PPP tweet that said Iowa was a 3 way tie between Paul-Romney-Gingrich.


they were talking about their first day of polling in a 3 day moving avg. They weren't being deceitful. Don't marginalize what they're saying because you took their tweet re: Bachmann out of context.

[ronpaulitician]

I wonder what will be better for the post-Iowa campaign: being in the lead in Iowa polls now and winning Iowa as the polls predict, or not ever being in the lead in Iowa polls but then taking Iowa somewhat by surprise.

[pauliticalfan]

Romney actually has an organization in Iowa though. We need to shift our focus away from Newt and onto Romney. This is coming down to a Paul vs. Romney showdown after all.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

But then remember the early PPP tweet that said Iowa was a 3 way tie between Paul-Romney-Gingrich.

Yeah. It could be Paul 23%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 21%. That wouldn't be a very relevant "third place."


this is looking at day two numbers. The MB was after first day. Each day is more close to what the final numbers will be.

That Bachmann line was before their last poll, and she did very poorly there.

[Koz]

Really? I thought Huntsman and Romney were practically clones.

Does that mean they are both flip-floppers?

[sailingaway]

Really? I thought Huntsman and Romney were practically clones.

they are being fed by media that Huntsman is moderate 'like Paul' on intervention etc. They don't discuss invading Iran.

[trey4sports]

I wonder what will be better for the post-Iowa campaign: being in the lead in Iowa polls now and winning Iowa as the polls predict, or not ever being in the lead in Iowa polls but then taking Iowa somewhat by surprise.

just winning is all that we can really ask for. Capitalize on whatever we can get.

[BUSHLIED]

The 3rd in Iowa is great news -- I can't see Romney with a significant lead over Paul -- nor can I see whatever support he's got showing up enthusiastically on caucus day. Heck, maybe Paul will be 1st!

The real question is how close Romney is to first...we are fighting two battles, one is to win first in Iowa but also to prevent Romney from a strong second in Iowa, going into NH. If Romney is able to edge out Newt for second in Iowa, that will be the headline. They will of course, give some attention to Paul for winning but the analysis will be Newt is done and Romney will go on to win NH and most likely be the nominee...it would be easier to discredit Paul's caucus win and chalk it up to extraneous factors. Obviously, a Romney second, is a secondary issue cause we simply have to win 1st anyway. Nail biting...

[South Park Fan]

They put out this tweet earlier "Iowa looking like something close to a 3 way tie between Paul, Mitt, Newt. Perry and Bachmann still clearly in a lower tier"
which would seem to indicate that the order on Friday was Paul 1st, Mitt 2nd, Newt 3rd. However, things are prone to change in the newt two days, so Romney may have pulled ahead today and tomorrow. This has it's drawbacks in that many Newt supporters had Romney as their 2nd choice, but it is also good for us if we are the clear viable alternative to Romney in the weeks before the caucuses.

[erowe1]

I wonder what will be better for the post-Iowa campaign: being in the lead in Iowa polls now and winning Iowa as the polls predict, or not ever being in the lead in Iowa polls but then taking Iowa somewhat by surprise.

I think the better Paul does in the polls, and the longer he does it, the better it will help him in later contests. We need to neutralize the "I like him but he can't win" argument sooner rather than later.

[bluesc]

they were talking about their first day of polling in a 3 day moving avg. They weren't being deceitful. Don't marginalize what they're saying because you took their tweet re: Bachmann out of context.

I'm not marginalizing what they're saying, I'm saying don't get too excited. The poll isn't finished yet.

[ronpaulfollower999]

they were talking about their first day of polling in a 3 day moving avg. They weren't being deceitful. T Don't marginalize what they're saying because you took their tweet re: Bachmann out of context.

I actually didn't take the Bachmann tweet out of context, I even noted how it said that it was only their 1st round of calling.

Just trying to stay cautiously optimistic.

[wstrucke]

There are a bunch of updates polls in the last hour or so on RCP. Some have us around 20% in NH (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html) and 18-20% in Iowa (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html)

[John F Kennedy III]

The 3rd in Iowa is great news -- I can't see Romney with a significant lead over Paul -- nor can I see whatever support he's got showing up enthusiastically on caucus day. Heck, maybe Paul will be 1st!

Please let there be 46 feet of snow in Iowa on January 3 *crosses fingers*

[sailingaway]

There are a bunch of updates polls in the last hour or so on RCP. Some have us around 20% in NH (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html) and 18-20% in Iowa (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html)

one of those NH polls is not like the others....

[Diurdi]

one of those NH polls is not like the others.... Yup, it's the one with Buddy Roemer beating Rick Perry lol.

[bluesc]

one of those NH polls is not like the others....

It's absolute crap and everyone knows it. Pissed me off how it took our average down when the chart is supposed to be showing a RP surge with Newt and Romney dropping.

[acptulsa]

As America says, 'Oh, that Newt? That's the Newt you're talking about? Oh, yes, I remember that guy now...'

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Yup, it's the one with Buddy Roemer beating Rick Perry lol.

Texas toast.

[airborne373]

Newt Gingrich: "I'm a BIG FAN of FDR & Woodrow Wilson"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDgEPzHII4&feature=g-u&context=G2a5343aFUAAAAAAAHAA

[Brett85]

But then remember the early PPP tweet that said Iowa was a 3 way tie between Paul-Romney-Gingrich.

A three way statistical tie, but in that order.

1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Gingrich

[jer4liberty]

No, you can't look at the earlier tweet, you must look at the latest tweet. It says that Newt is quite possibly first with the hash tag mittnextinline. Meaning it will be Mitt ahead....

[Karsten]

No, you can't look at the earlier tweet, you must look at the latest tweet. It says that Newt is quite possibly first with the hash tag mittnextinline. Meaning it will be Mitt ahead....
No it says Newt is third.

[sailingaway]

No it says Newt is third.

It says Newt is falling NATIONALLY #mittnextinline and says Newt may be third in IOWA. They are doing three polls this weekend, National, Iowa AND New Hampshire.

[jer4liberty]

No it says Newt is third.

With mittnextinline. Meaning Mitt has probably taken the lead. Why else would they say Mittnextinline?? I bet Mitt leads nationally by some points, in Iowa (barely), and New Hampshire though the first day and half of polling.

[Karsten]

It says Newt is falling NATIONALLY #mittnextinline and says Newt may be third in IOWA. They are doing three polls this weekend, National, Iowa AND New Hampshire.
How and when do we know if Mitt is next in line Nationally or just in Iowa.

[jer4liberty]

Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline

[pauliticalfan]

"Mitt Next in Line" means Mitt gains Newt's supporters if Newt falls (which he is). This means that we need to focus our attention on Romney from now until the Caucus.

[jer4liberty]

How and when do we know if Mitt is next in line Nationally or just in Iowa.

Because that is what the data is showing according to PPP apparently. Why else would they say this:

"Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline"

[rich34]

Need a Romney serial hyporcrisy ad...

[Karsten]

They still have half of their polling left to do, no? Things could change.

[trey4sports]

A three way statistical tie, but in that order.

1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Gingrich

remember that was only what friday showed (i believe) and they use a 3 day rolling avg. so they have sat. and sun. to finalize the numbers.


No, you can't look at the earlier tweet, you must look at the latest tweet. It says that Newt is quite possibly first with the hash tag mittnextinline. Meaning it will be Mitt ahead....

newt in 3rd. again, the poll isnt finished but i can see a big newt uhm... (whats the opposite of surge, fall?)


"Mitt Next in Line" means Mitt gains Newt's supporters if Newt falls (which he is). This means that we need to focus our attention on Romney from now until the Caucus.

yup. Bingo.


Because that is what the data is showing according to PPP apparently. Why else would they say this:

"Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline"

hes asking if the hastag is referring to Iowa in paticular or national....


Need a Romney serial hyporcrisy ad...

yup.


They still have half of their polling left to do, no? Things could change.

well they should have fri. and (possibly) sat. done and still have 1 day left.

[Johnnybags]

Newt is DOA, it has always been a Romney nomination from day one with the establishment. There are about 20 woman waiting in the wings to tar and feather Gingrich. Its a two man race and Romney or any Republican cannot win the Presidency without the Paul people on board. Gingrich is starting to sound like that old boring History teacher everyone had once in school and has virtually no support from the establishment figures.

[trey4sports]

remember in the last favorability rankings Ron was +30 in Iowa. The best among all candidates excluding Tim Tebow. Hopefully mitt is next in line is referring to newts nat'l support going to mitt rather than iowa support.

[RonPaul101.com]

The campaign should stop all Newt truth telling ads NOW. Don't waste any more money, and get ready to do some truth telling on Mitt. Read the Gingrich articles out there, even his campaigning, or lack thereof, shows he's peaked and ready to retire.

You can only sink a ship once.

[Karsten]

The campaign should stop all Newt truth telling ads NOW. Don't waste any more money, and get ready to do some truth telling on Mitt. Read the Gingrich articles out there, even his campaigning, or lack thereof, shows he's peaked and ready to retire.

You can only sink a ship once.
Yeah, it's time to shift the focus.

[specsaregood]

You can only sink a ship once.

It took 2 times to sink the cain boat.

[parocks]

Yeah, it's time to shift the focus.

Let's see the numbers first.

[pauliticalfan]

Yeah, it's time to shift the focus.

Yeah, seriously. It's time for a Mitt serial hypocrisy ad.

[samsung1]

Newt's Iowa intrade dropping lie a rock... already down 20% after the tweets from PPP

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749796

[South Park Fan]

The campaign should stop all Newt truth telling ads NOW. Don't waste any more money, and get ready to do some truth telling on Mitt. Read the Gingrich articles out there, even his campaigning, or lack thereof, shows he's peaked and ready to retire.

You can only sink a ship once.

I concur. Since Newt's not even going to be in the state for the next 10 days, it's best to shift our focus to our biggest existential threat.

[ropo]

It took 2 times to sink the cain boat.

That was a train:p

[milo10]

I concur. Since Newt's not even going to be in the state for the next 10 days, it's best to shift our focus to our biggest existential threat.

We need an anti-Romney ad of the same quality as the Serial Hypocrisy ads, especially the first one.

[trey4sports]

The campaign should stop all Newt truth telling ads NOW. Don't waste any more money, and get ready to do some truth telling on Mitt. Read the Gingrich articles out there, even his campaigning, or lack thereof, shows he's peaked and ready to retire.

You can only sink a ship once.


the campaign has information you don't. my guess is that their polling shows a lot of newts support (in iowa) goes to ron when newt drops.

[low preference guy]

We need an anti-Romney ad of the same quality as the Serial Hypocrisy ads, especially the first one.

We first need to establish that we are the non-Romney candidate. Once all those competitors are eliminated and we are mano a mano with Romney, we should go after him.

[BUSHLIED]

Yeah, it's time to shift the focus.

Bachmann ripped into Newt in Iowa...she was the second hit on Newt...he is falling and that is what the polls is going to indicate. With Newt's fall, Romney stands to gain if you look at the crosstabs on the Iowa polls...what you are seeing is a move to Romney but that is still in transition and so the polls are capturing a trend but not the final settling point (still to early)...Paul was high enough in the polls that even picking up 10% of Newt's support still is enough to keep Paul above Romney, even if Romney gets 33% of Newt's support. Don't forget, Newt's support was soft and many were still open to another candidate. Supporters don't move to Paul out of pure lack of options, as a default. They move to Paul because of his ideas and platform. Therefore, the key to Paul gaining more ground is Paul spreading the message and not necessarily attacking others...this could have been a major miscalculation of the campaign to continue to hammer Newt...as someone said, it is NOW time to switch tactics and get Ron's message out as the TRUE conservative and the one to beat Obama. An ad with Paul attacking Obama and demonstrating, his leadership is exactly what is needed NOW. Bachmann and Santorum are only going to gain the extreme evangelical fringe that under no circumstances will back NEWT or go to Romney...as for Paul, they may not even go to him because of the libertarian strain on social issues and states rights etc...take what you can get and focus on bringing those that have soured on Obama but will not back establishment candidates or nut jobs like Bachmann and Santorum, basically the college-educated indies/liberals

[angelatc]

Need a Romney serial hyporcrisy ad... Not disagreeing, but a big part of Newt's success is grounded in the "anyone but Romney" sentiment. I'm not convinced they'll flock to Romney when Newt falls apart. More than likely they'll just stay home. I am fine with that. :)

[specsaregood]

That was a train:p
I was gonna refer to it as something that just won't flush; but I decided to be ambassadorial.

[sailingaway]

Ron is at 53% to win at least one primary or caucus. While it may seem like a no brainer for us, that is higher than it has been.

[thehungarian]

PPP's cryptic hints are really annoying.

[Drex]

Some people won't vote for Romney simply because he's a mormon

[Dustancostine]

it's best to shift our focus to our biggest existential threat. I would rather shift our focus to our biggest objective threat. :)

[samsung1]

Romney's Intrade iowa numbers surged and newt's just tanked. Ron is 2 % behind Romney

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

[Epic]

Yep, the focus should be off Newt (let OTHER PEOPLES negative ads handle him).

The focus should be on Romney, and on running POSITIVE ads about Ron Paul.

[Barrex]

I think it is time for positive ad....About troops supporting Ron etc. 3 negative ones in a row might be percieved as negative (not so eloquent :))?

[Student Of Paulism]

Well lets see what the Polls say today and better yet, the ones next week. If Newt dives further, then yes, time to go after Mitt and also put out some Paul-Positive non-attack ads too. I have always believed that Mitt is the GOP's sleeper and fall back guy.

[Karsten]

Well lets see what the Polls say today and better yet, the ones next week. If Newt dives further, then yes, time to go after Mitt and also put out some Paul-Positive non-attack ads too. I have always believed that Mitt is the GOP's sleeper and fall back guy.

Romney/Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Romney

Full circle.
They ran out of not Romney establishment candidates.

[Carole]

I wonder what will be better for the post-Iowa campaign: being in the lead in Iowa polls now and winning Iowa as the polls predict, or not ever being in the lead in Iowa polls but then taking Iowa somewhat by surprise.

I rather like being in second and then winning. Thus the polls are shown to be underpolling Paul. Maybe then NH polls would have to boost him a bit to have any veracity. Anyone else agree?

[Stevo_Chill]

Romney/Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Romney

Full circle.
They ran out of not Romney establishment candidates.

Trump/Pawlenty/Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Romney

[trey4sports]

I rather like being in second and then winning. Thus the polls are shown to be underpolling Paul. Maybe then NH polls would have to boost him a bit to have any veracity. Anyone else agree?

if i could choose one or the either i would love for a come from behind, without having anyone throw mud but the fact of the matter is that we really just need a win. Beggars can't be choosers. If we have to get attacked and show our cards a bit early in order to win, we gotta do what we gotta do. 1 in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[Karsten]

Trump/Pawlenty/Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Romney
Was Pawlenty ever considered the front runner?

[Stevo_Chill]

Was Pawlenty ever considered the front runner?

he was by some talking heads prior to Iowa straw poll. then bachman won- he dropped out and she became the next flavor of the month.
if you notice, one name has been missing from the anyone but he who shall not be named list of acceptable choices.

[rawful]

Was Pawlenty ever considered the front runner?

He was pushed as a top tier guy but the polls never showed it.

[RickyJ]

I think everyone here is putting way too much emphasis on these polls right now. First of all these polls only go out to people with landlines and that happen to be home and willing to take the survey. Many Ron Paul supporters don't have land lines and if they do they are more than likely out shopping or working this weekend so close to Christmas. I am not saying Ron Paul will win Iowa in a blow out, but don't be surprised if he wins by at least 10 points there, his real support is much higher than these polls lead people to believe. Remember, the only poll that counts will be on election day, we just have to motivate those that said they would vote for Ron Paul to actually do so on election day and I see Ron Paul winning Iowa comfortably.

[Karsten]

I think everyone here is putting way too much emphasize on these polls right now. First of all these polls only go out to people with landlines and that happen to be home and willing to take the survey. Many Ron Paul supporters don't have land lines and if they do they are more than likely out shopping or working this weekend so close to Christmas.
Heard the same thing 4 years ago.

[braane]

shopping or working this weekend so close to Christmas..
That argument is valid for all candidates.

The way we can put positive spin on the polls is to say "we will get a bump from awesome speeches at the caucus and a determination to vote". At the same time, let's assume, for the most part, the polls are right.

[Hyperion]

Newt Gingrich: "I'm a BIG FAN of FDR & Woodrow Wilson"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJDgEPzHII4&feature=g-u&context=G2a5343aFUAAAAAAAHAA

His love for FDR is so scary. FDR is the ultimate domestic enemy for those of us who believe in limited government.

[69360]

I think everyone here is putting way too much emphasis on these polls right now. First of all these polls only go out to people with landlines and that happen to be home and willing to take the survey. Many Ron Paul supporters don't have land lines

All debunked 4 years ago.

[trey4sports]

he was by some talking heads prior to Iowa straw poll. then bachman won- he dropped out and she became the next flavor of the month.
if you notice, one name has been missing from the anyone but he who shall not be named list of acceptable choices.


He was pushed as a top tier guy but the polls never showed it.


kind of funny how he never topped 8% or so yet he was always a front runner and now that Ron is at 21% they say he still can't get the nomination!

[KingNothing]

I think everyone here is putting way too much emphasis on these polls right now. First of all these polls only go out to people with landlines and that happen to be home and willing to take the survey.

None of that is true.

[Brett85]

In 2008, Ron did about 3 points better in the actual results than he did in the polls. This year, I expect him to do about 5% better since he has a better organization. I think Ron can win Iowa as long as he's within 5% in the RCP average.

[RDM]

The real question is how close Romney is to first...we are fighting two battles, one is to win first in Iowa but also to prevent Romney from a strong second in Iowa, going into NH. If Romney is able to edge out Newt for second in Iowa, that will be the headline. They will of course, give some attention to Paul for winning but the analysis will be Newt is done and Romney will go on to win NH and most likely be the nominee...it would be easier to discredit Paul's caucus win and chalk it up to extraneous factors. Obviously, a Romney second, is a secondary issue cause we simply have to win 1st anyway. Nail biting...

I agree. I think the GOP realized this also with the unexpected rise of Newt. Knowing Newt could possibly make Romney irrelevant with a strong Iowa finish going into NH. This is why I believe FOX was giving their marching orders to start knocking Newt down to possibly elevate Mittens back up again. GOP realizes a Paul win in Iowa may not be avoidable, but they also realize a Mittens strong finish in Iowa is necessary if they want to keep their "pre-picked" candidate alive.

[Kregisen]

Guys this will be neck and neck...remember the Ames straw poll in August against Bachmann where we lost by 150 votes? This is giving me the exact same feeling, except this actually means something! Bachmann died just a few weeks after her Ames win.

We need to go all in these last 2.5 weeks! All in or nothing! EVERYTHING relies on an Iowa victory!

[Todd]

the campaign has information you don't. my guess is that their polling shows a lot of newts support (in iowa) goes to ron when newt drops.

If they are using the PFH data, and are learning that Newt voters second choice is Paul, then that would make sense.

[KingNothing]

Is PFH the single greatest polling system any political team/strategist has ever put together?

When you think of all the time spent from the hundreds/thousands of people participating, it has got to be the most extensive poll that's been conducted in recent memory.

[Barrex]

A lot of young people want to vote for Ron Paul. Most of them dont have landline. BUT! If elections are going to be during break (no school) wouldnt those young voters be hoe and not in their voting place? How many of them will be ready to go for homes back to place where they are studying to vote for Ron Paul?

[rich34]

Not disagreeing, but a big part of Newt's success is grounded in the "anyone but Romney" sentiment. I'm not convinced they'll flock to Romney when Newt falls apart. More than likely they'll just stay home. I am fine with that. :)

True for Iowa, but it wouldn't hurt to go ahead and have something ready to roll out in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. An ad the caliber of Newt's serial hypocrisy against Mitt would MAJORLY drive up negatives in each of those states and open the door for Paul to take the lead in the polls giving the perception that our guy is going to win and everyone wants to vote for the winner :-)

[trey4sports]

A lot of young people want to vote for Ron Paul. Most of them dont have landline. BUT! If elections are going to be during break (no school) wouldnt those young voters be hoe and not in their voting place? How many of them will be ready to go for homes back to place where they are studying to vote for Ron Paul?

they can caucus anywhere in IA. Doesn't matter if they live on campus or are back home. Yes, some students may be out of state and have to go back to their home state but there will also be students who lived in Iowa but go to school out of state so it all balances out.

[Barrex]

they can caucus anywhere in IA. Doesn't matter if they live on campus or are back home. Yes, some students may be out of state and have to go back to their home state but there will also be students who lived in Iowa but go to school out of state so it all balances out.

Thanks. For such advanced nation you really got unnecessarily complicated and messed up election process...With caucusses, primaries, opend,closed, delegates..... I still didnt get all the rules. What I do get is that it favors only 2 political parties.

[truthspeaker]

On the New Mexico article 12/16/2011:

"Paul as the strongest of the Republican candidates with independents has become more the rule than the exception in our recent polling across the country."-PPP

But Gringrich leads there for now...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/ On the front page.

[Brett85]

So does this mean that PPP does all of their polling in the morning since they've already sent out all these tweets?

[parocks]

Heard the same thing 4 years ago.

this. deja vu

[Karsten]

this. deja vu
What's not deja vu is our poll numbers. It's kind of funny to me. In 2007, everybody on here was wildly optimistic, even though we were polling single digits. Now, people are ranging from cautiously optimistic to pessimistic, while we've been statistically tied for first or not far behind in several polls.

[sailingaway]

Guys this will be neck and neck...remember the Ames straw poll in August against Bachmann where we lost by 150 votes? This is giving me the exact same feeling, except this actually means something! Bachmann died just a few weeks after her Ames win.

We need to go all in these last 2.5 weeks! All in or nothing! EVERYTHING relies on an Iowa victory!

this. There are going to be a LOT more people caucusing than usual, imho. A lot of Ron's people are 'on top of' historic caucusers and the numbers will adjust upwards, accordingly, imho.

[The_Ruffneck]

Gingrichs numbers in Georgia , Sc , Virginia and many others are still pretty scary.
Paul needs to WIN both Iowa AND NH to have a shot at the prize , second in either of those is not good enough.

[parocks]

they can caucus anywhere in IA. Doesn't matter if they live on campus or are back home. Yes, some students may be out of state and have to go back to their home state but there will also be students who lived in Iowa but go to school out of state so it all balances out.

"students who lived in Iowa but go to school out of state so it all balances out"

this fact is often forgotten. I've never seen any data about this.

The trouble is Voter ID and GOTV with these Iowans who go to college out of state.

[parocks]

What's not deja vu is our poll numbers. It's kind of funny to me. In 2007, everybody on here was wildly optimistic, even though we were polling single digits. Now, people are ranging from cautiously optimistic to pessimistic, while we've been statistically tied for first or not far behind in several polls.

Well in 2007-2008, there were many who were not seemingly discourged by losing. We were coming up with victory scenarios involving delegates for months after McCain got enough delegates.

So, yes. I think that this time, overall, we're on point.

[ProBlue33]

Yeah but didn't the pastors and minsters of Iowa meet and are telling people anybody but Romney?
If this gets into caucus and it seems it's a 20/40/40 split this goes to Paul.

[Karsten]

Well in 2007-2008, there were many who were not seemingly discourged by losing. We were coming up with victory scenarios involving delegates for months after McCain got enough delegates.

After the New Hampshire primary, I knew it was over and kind of took a break from politics for a while. I was pretty depressed for most of 2008. Don't want a repeat of that.

[Beorn]

Yeah but didn't the pastors and minsters of Iowa meet and are telling people anybody but Romney?
If this gets into caucus and it seems it's a 20/40/40 split this goes to Paul.

Last I heard anyone, but Romney includes only perry, Gingrich, Bachmann, and sanatorum.

Edit: oops Romney! Not Paul.

[sailingaway]

Yeah but didn't the pastors and minsters of Iowa meet and are telling people anybody but Romney?
If this gets into caucus and it seems it's a 20/40/40 split this goes to Paul.

that's not how I remember it.

[anaconda]

I don't get it. Where are the poll numbers? Or is this some kind of prerelease gossip?

[sailingaway]

I don't get it. Where are the poll numbers? Or is this some kind of prerelease gossip?

pre release tweets by the polling company, so kinda sorta gossip, I guess.

[cdc482]

When is the poll coming out!

[Agorism]

They release poll on mondays

[chadhb]

We need to shift our focus to Romney. He's clearly surging, could very well be first in Iowa. I hope the campaign has an attack ad ready to go against him. If Romney wins in Iowa, he's gonna be hard to stop in New Hampshire.

Well how stupid was it to attack Newt, when it is obvious to anybody with the smallest pea brain, that Newt was never a threat. Really pisses me off, that the Paul Campaign wasted money going after Newt, when Romney was always the front runner. Romney knows he's got the go ahead, why do you think he has such a smug look on his face all the time.

[69360]

Well how stupid was it to attack Newt, when it is obvious to anybody with the smallest pea brain, that Newt was never a threat. Really pisses me off, that the Paul Campaign wasted money going after Newt, when Romney was always the front runner. Romney knows he's got the go ahead, why do you think he has such a smug look on his face all the time.

Newt was climbing too high in the Iowa polls and needed to be knocked back down to earth. The campaign has been very strategic with the ads and is doing everything right.

[PaleoPaul]

Let's hope the title is true and Newtvember is over.

PS: I don't think Paul will win NH. Romney's practically NH's boy.

[Agorism]

idk our numbers went up when people saw the Newt ad. The favorability even went up as well.

It's like the people who really liked the ad were Newt people who then changed to Paul. I liked that first ad. The second one was only so-so though, and I disliked Big Dog ad.

[pauliticalfan]

Well how stupid was it to attack Newt, when it is obvious to anybody with the smallest pea brain, that Newt was never a threat. Really pisses me off, that the Paul Campaign wasted money going after Newt, when Romney was always the front runner. Romney knows he's got the go ahead, why do you think he has such a smug look on his face all the time.

Newt had to be taken down. His lead was getting out of hand, and even though he has no organization, he probably would have squeaked out a win. Now that Romney's surging, actually has an organization, has the establishment behind him (I'm looking at you Des Moines Register) he HAS to be our #1 target. Honestly, if I don't see a Romney attack ad in the vein of Serial Hypocrisy out within two days, I'm gonna be really worried and disappointed.

[69360]

I didn't like the dog ad, this one is good.

I think 2nd is doable in NH. Romney would have to take a huge hit to lose there and there probably isn't anything big enough on the horizon to knock him down that far.

[lucent]

I doubt Romney picked up any of Newt's support in Iowa.

[PaleoPaul]

Another thing that helps Romney in NH is that NH is right next door to his home state, MA.

[anaconda]

pre release tweets by the polling company, so kinda sorta gossip, I guess.

OK Thanks. I think I'll just wait for the poll results.

[anaconda]

Newt was climbing too high in the Iowa polls and needed to be knocked back down to earth. The campaign has been very strategic with the ads and is doing everything right.

I agree that Newt unchecked could have rode his wave through Iowa. Hindsight is 20/20. Plus Bachmann helped with her "Newt Romney " comments. An attack on Newt is, to some extent, an attack on Romney. To be the "Anti Romney" is a good goal for the first two or three primaries.

[PaleoPaul]

Here's a little flashback to 2008...

Here are the results (as well as some background info) of the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

And here is a list of the polls leading up to the Caucus. Pay close attention to the opinion polling in December...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa)

[stephensmith]

They keep saying that Ron Paul has a ceiling of support, even as he keeps increasing his support in polls. I think people will find out it is Mitt who has the ceiling.

[Karsten]

Here's a little flashback to 2008...

Here are the results (as well as some background info) of the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

And here is a list of the polls leading up to the Caucus. Pay close attention to the opinion polling in December...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa)
Mike Huckabee won with 40,954 votes.
How many Ron Paul supporters have we identified in Iowa?
I heard the number 20,000 a few weeks ago.

[WIwarrior]

My take is Ron should win Iowa & honestly if newt/romney keep taking damage plus huntsman rising means ron wins NH

[parocks]

Is Romney expected to do well in NH?

Where is Gingrich in South Carolina polls at the moment?

If we stop hitting Newt, how will Newt do in South Carolina?

How will Romney do in South Carolina? If we keep hitting Newt, will that help Romney in South Carolina?

Romney isn't expected to do well in South Carolina. Newt still is. People in South Carolina may very well choose Ron Paul over Mitt Romney if Newt is beaten up.

[PaleoPaul]

McCain won South Carolina last time. Romney didn't even make it to the Top 3. South Carolina is evangelical, born-again central. Born agains are usually anti-Mormon, so a beaten-up Gingrich, and a hopefully dropped out Perry, will work in Paul's favor.

[69360]

Is Romney expected to do well in NH?

Where is Gingrich in South Carolina polls at the moment?

If we stop hitting Newt, how will Newt do in South Carolina?

How will Romney do in South Carolina? If we keep hitting Newt, will that help Romney in South Carolina?

Romney isn't expected to do well in South Carolina. Newt still is. People in South Carolina may very well choose Ron Paul over Mitt Romney if Newt is beaten up.

My opinion is Ron will win IA, mittens will win NH and the grinch will win SC. Grinch or mittens will win FL, then Ron will win all the caucuses up until super tuesday.

But you never know, Ron is rising and has a lot of momentum. A blowout in IA could convince the fence sitters in NH and with a win there it could snowball. Still, MIC central in SC will be tough for Ron as will FL.

[PaleoPaul]

If Paul wants to win in NH, he needs to pull a McCain and leave IA the minute the caucuses are over, head to NH, and camp out for the entire week, shaking hands at least 5 times all around the state.

[trey4sports]

I think winning Iowa would put NH in play and if we win both we could potentially snowball. Regardless of Iowa NH will be very difficult.

[PaleoPaul]

I think we can win Iowa and Nevada easily.

[parocks]

McCain won South Carolina last time. Romney didn't even make it to the Top 3. South Carolina is evangelical, born-again central. Born agains are usually anti-Mormon, so a beaten-up Gingrich, and a hopefully dropped out Perry, will work in Paul's favor.

I tend to agree with this. We should be thinking not just about Iowa and New Hampshire, but also South Carolina and Florida, etc.

For months, there has been a presumption that there would be a "Romney" and an "anti Romney". And Romney means Romney.

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Romney doing well. But Romney does not appeal to tea party, at least that's the thinking.

The "must hit Newt" was pretty obvious when he was rising. It really isn't quite as clear right now.

[InTradePro]

If Paul wants to win in NH, he needs to pull a McCain and leave IA the minute the caucuses are over, head to NH, and camp out for the entire week, shaking hands at least 5 times all around the state.

Haha, love the enthusiasm. New Hampshire has a population of 1,316,470. If Dr Paul was shaking a hand every second for the full week it would only total 604,800 hand shakes.

[parocks]

My opinion is Ron will win IA, mittens will win NH and the grinch will win SC. Grinch or mittens will win FL, then Ron will win all the caucuses up until super tuesday.

But you never know, Ron is rising and has a lot of momentum. A blowout in IA could convince the fence sitters in NH and with a win there it could snowball. Still, MIC central in SC will be tough for Ron as will FL.

If we keep pounding and pounding Newt - which has been effective - there's a real possibility that he gets damaged in SC and FL and does not win there. It's reasonable to think that they just don't like Romney in SC. Which means theres a lot of votes up for grabs in SC.

Ideally, we're the tea party candidate and Romney is the not tea party candidate - plus all the specifics about the individual candidates. We get young people, Independents, males, Romney gets old mormon women.

Polls do not indicate that we have tea party at this point, but as the field shrinks, we're really going to need to be preferred to Romney. Over on Freerepublic, they are not fond of Romney (or Paul for that matter), but Romney has been target #1 over there for months if not years.

[CUnknown]

Haha, love the enthusiasm. New Hampshire has a population of 1,316,470. If Dr Paul was shaking a hand every second for the full week it would only total 604,800 hand shakes.

He needs a cyber-implant robo-hand. That's what I'll get him for Christmas.

[pauliticalfan]

UPDATE!


ppppolls: The Sunday interviews are going to determine our leader in Iowa...very close between Romney and Paul. Newt likely down to 3rd

Latest tweet. So we're definitely in the running, but Romney's surged, Gingrich has fallen. Still, I say as long as we're within ~5 points of first in the polls, we have a real shot on Caucus night to make that up with turnout/enthusiasm.

[pauliticalfan]

Unfortunately, the damn DMR endorsement is probably gonna give Romney a little one-day bump, considering everyone who gets the paper is gonna see Romney for Prez and his cheesy mug on their doorstep. Still, if we're anywhere close to Romney tomorrow, that's good news for us.

[The_Ruffneck]

UPDATE!



Latest tweet. So we're definitely in the running, but Romney's surged, Gingrich has fallen. Still, I say as long as we're within ~5 points of first in the polls, we have a real shot on Caucus night to make that up with turnout/enthusiasm.
These supporters will follow any fly by nighter , as long as we pick up a couple of percentage points every time the flock moves to another candidate we will do great.

[low preference guy]

This is good. When it's clear Paul is the only who has a chance of stopping Romney, Perry and Bachmann supporters might vote for Paul!

[cdw]

Did the DMR endorse Romney in 2008 too?

[pauliticalfan]

Did the DMR endorse Romney in 2008 too?

No, McCain.

[cdw]

k, well if Huckabee could overcome their lack of an endorsement and still turn out the vote (with a mostly older evangelical crowd) in the freezing snow, then Ron should surely be able to as well with his crowd. The campaign said that their internal polling had them with 20,000 hard supporters right (or was that internal polling in NH?), so if it takes 40,000 to win Iowa that means they only had to convince 20 thousand more people to turn out and vote for Ron. If the phone from home and super voter brochures did it's job, we should have a victory come January.

[PaleoPaul]

No, McCain.
Uh oh.

[Agorism]

Was Paul even invited to a Sunday show this week?

[mwkaufman]

Was Paul even invited to a Sunday show this week?

They mean the Sunday polling. They interview likely caucus goers and such.

[parocks]

k, well if Huckabee could overcome their lack of an endorsement and still turn out the vote (with a mostly older evangelical crowd) in the freezing snow, then Ron should surely be able to as well with his crowd. The campaign said that their internal polling had them with 20,000 hard supporters right (or was that internal polling in NH?), so if it takes 40,000 to win Iowa that means they only had to convince 20 thousand more people to turn out and vote for Ron. If the phone from home and super voter brochures did it's job, we should have a victory come January.

What they're doing is more identify than convince. Making a lot of phone calls presumably during the day on January 3.

[ross11988]

Here's a little flashback to 2008...

Here are the results (as well as some background info) of the 2008 Iowa Republican Caucuses...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

And here is a list of the polls leading up to the Caucus. Pay close attention to the opinion polling in December...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa)

I like your find. I dont know if this is what you were pointing out, but I observed that Romney was consistently 25% leading up to the caucus and when the caucus's came thats exactly what he got. Where as Ron Paul and Huckabee all did better on Caucus night then what they were polling

[DRV45N05]

Any campaign whose strategy is based on receiving the DMR endorsement is destined to fail.

Paul is following the strategy that propelled Obama to win the Iowa Caucus in 2008: have the best ground organization, hook up with local activists, ID the issues important to voters (and base your messaging on it), ID your people, bust your butt the weeks before the caucus, turn your people out.

Let Drew Ivers do his thing. He's been at this a while.

[Agorism]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa

I wish they had a wiki of 1996 polling. I'm curious what buchanan's looked liked

[parocks]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party _presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa

I wish they had a wiki of 1996 polling. I'm curious what buchanan's looked liked

I was doing research on that question, and I found a very interesting thread about how the poster saw vote fraud in Iowa w/ Buchanan, and has very helpful tips about how to avoid this happening with Ron Paul. Apparently, the 99 counties all send the data to one place and one place only.

The Ron Paul campaign certainly should have a system where they get the data themselves. It seems to be a conspiracy site where this thread is.

[bobbyw24]

This is helping Romney.

It is NOT helping Ron Paul

[milo10]

This is helping Romney.

It is NOT helping Ron Paul

bobby, what do you mean?

[Liberty74]

Did the DMR endorse Romney in 2008 too?

The Register did this year. Paul is polling well in Iowa and NH because he is the people's President. That is where he has been campaigning and the people are gravitating to him. However, a Gallup national poll out has him in third @ 10%. The establishment - Rush, Levin, Hannity, Coulter, O'Reilly, Morris, National Journal, Standard Weekly, WJS, Fox News, etc. - is on an all out attack on Paul. What does that tell you? The status quo pushers aren't going to let Paul win despite what happens in Iowa and NH. There are too many sheep and cattle to be herd compared to principled and intelligence people like us. Ron Paul needs to campaign as the anti-status quo candidate and start playing tough to get back at the candidates for having the media do their dirty work with all the lies and negative smears. Call them out NOW.

[Agorism]

Is talk radio fully behind Romney now or are they still pushing Gingrich?

[Liberty74]

Is talk radio fully behind Romney now or are they still pushing Gingrich?

Rush was pushing Perry but not sure who now
Back has been pushing Santorum and Bachmann
Hannity has been pushing Newton Leroy
O'Reilly is with Newt
Levin I believe is pushing Bachmann since Cain was a joke
Coulter is pushing Romney

Savage?

I don't think any talk radio big guys are pushing Romney but others might be...

[bluesc]

This is helping Romney.

It is NOT helping Ron Paul

Yeah, you keep saying that. Source?

[bobbyw24]

Yeah, you keep saying that. Source?

The OP: PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Follow
Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline

People here are delusional if they ignore Romney

[Todd38]

Yeah, you keep saying that. Source?

It is obvious that the former Newt people are either moving to Romney or Bachmann.

[bluesc]

The OP: PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Follow
Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline

People here are delusional if they ignore Romney

I've been telling people to concentrate on Romney for months.

The part I bolded was "It is NOT helping Ron Paul". That would mean that Ron has gained nothing from the Newt crash. Source?

[bluesc]

It is obvious that the former Newt people are either moving to Romney or Bachmann.

None of them are moving to Paul? Source?

[Agorism]

I personally think some of Paul's rise was due to the first anti-Gingrich ad. It pulled Gingrich people to Paul camp so I don't think going after Gingrich was such a bad idea although obviously Romney is the bigger thread now.

[dolphin]

Newt’s Loot: Billionaire Commits $20M

(Thursday, December 15th, 2011)

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is planning to direct $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO – the first answer to urgent pleas from allies to the former speaker’s longtime billionaire supporters.

After leaving Congress, Gingrich cultivated a network of a few dozen über-wealthy backers who poured tens of millions of dollars into a network of groups that helped him maintain a foothold in politics. Now, operatives supporting his presidential campaign are asking those same donors to write fat checks to a suite of new super PACs they hope can spend big on ads to offset Gingrich campaign fundraising that had lagged behind his rivals’.

Adelson is considered the prized get for pro-Gingrich groups.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/112129/Newt's-Loot%3A-Billionaire-Commits-%2420M.html

[parocks]

The OP: PublicPolicyPolling
@ppppolls
Follow
Newt this weekend: national lead fading, nowhere close in NH, quite possibly down to 3rd in Iowa. #mittisnextinline

People here are delusional if they ignore Romney

Bobby, it's complicated. I'm not sure that I have all the answers, but do you have any detailed analysis of the end game?

I can give you an analysis, but I won't say it's right.

In 2 polls THIS MONTH, Newt was at 33%. Unless he was knocked down considerably, he would've won. And he's stronger than Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
Romney has NEVER been as high as 33%. He was at 29% in July, behind Bachmann in that poll at 32%.

So, let's look at the South Carolina scenario. Let's say we completely crush Newt Gingrich into the dust, and ignore Romney. Let's assume that our ground game will be superior to Romney's and we squeak out a slight win, 25/20/15/15/10/10/5 - Paul/Romney/Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Gingrich/Huntsman.

We get a bump from that, and either win or lose in NH, but with higher totals for both. 30/25/15/10/10/5/5 Huntsman is at 15, either Paul or Romney wins, and the other 4 are tangled in the high single digits.

Who is strong going into South Carolina?

And would we rather hit Mitt Romney hard in South Carolina? Or do we want to worry, at all, about Gingrich or Perry? Those 2 I would worry about. Gingrich is famous and Southern. Perry still has a lot of money I think. Bachmann and Santorum are not as strong in the south as Gingrich and Perry. And they're both broke. So, if Ron Paul can give Bachmann some talking points and Santorum some talking points, to overshadow Perry, that's to Ron Paul's advantage. I would expect that Ron Paul's official campaign has a theory about all of this.

You want Gingrich and Perry at 6 and 7 going into the South. And then Ron Paul runs the ads that anybody could write. Romneycare = Obamacare. Etc etc etc. Not attack ads like against Gingrich, necessarily, but contrast ads. I'm conservative, Romney is not. I'm tea party, Romney is RINO. The basic stuff that got RINOs beat last year.

Free Republic accepted Gingrich, but will not accept Romney, and I don't think they're going to drop that Anyone But Romney policy. I could be wrong about that. But Ron Paul should be able to get large amounts of tea party support against Romney.

Many here have been saying that it is, or should be, Paul vs Romney.

[malkusm]

From their recent poll of New Mexico:


Paul as the strongest of the Republican candidates with independents has become more the rule than the exception in our recent polling across the country.

[parocks]

None of them are moving to Paul? Source?

This is from the latest PPP Iowa poll crosstabs.

No 2nd choice / someone else / not sure (25% of total)
Paul 37 (37% of 25% is 9.25%. 9.25% of ALL Voters are 1) Ron Paul supporters who 2) have No 2nd Choice. 9T
not sure 1st choice 27 7T
romney 14 4T
gingrich 13 3T

bachmann gets votes from (is 2nd choice) (11%)
gingrich 34 (34% of the 2nd choice votes Bachmann got are from Gingrich 1st choice) 4% of total 4T
santorum 19 2T
paul 17 2T
perry 14 2T

paul gets votes from (is 2nd choice) (12%)
Ging 23 3T
perry 21 3T
romney 19 2T
Santorum 13 2T

Gingrich gets votes from (is 2nd choice) (14%)
Romney 33 5T
bach 25 4T
paul 20 3T
Perry 11 2T

romney gets votes from (is 2nd choice) (13%)
gingrich 40 6T
huntsman 16 2T
paul 15 2T
perry 14 2T

[The_Ruffneck]

Newt’s Loot: Billionaire Commits $20M

(Thursday, December 15th, 2011)

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is planning to direct $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO – the first answer to urgent pleas from allies to the former speaker’s longtime billionaire supporters.

After leaving Congress, Gingrich cultivated a network of a few dozen über-wealthy backers who poured tens of millions of dollars into a network of groups that helped him maintain a foothold in politics. Now, operatives supporting his presidential campaign are asking those same donors to write fat checks to a suite of new super PACs they hope can spend big on ads to offset Gingrich campaign fundraising that had lagged behind his rivals’.

Adelson is considered the prized get for pro-Gingrich groups.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/112129/Newt's-Loot%3A-Billionaire-Commits-%2420M.html
Chuck as much at him as they want he's gone.
Ghouliani raised 50 million in the 07 campaign and it didn't help him one iota.

[Liberty74]

Newt’s Loot: Billionaire Commits $20M

(Thursday, December 15th, 2011)

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is planning to direct $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO – the first answer to urgent pleas from allies to the former speaker’s longtime billionaire supporters.

After leaving Congress, Gingrich cultivated a network of a few dozen über-wealthy backers who poured tens of millions of dollars into a network of groups that helped him maintain a foothold in politics. Now, operatives supporting his presidential campaign are asking those same donors to write fat checks to a suite of new super PACs they hope can spend big on ads to offset Gingrich campaign fundraising that had lagged behind his rivals’.

Adelson is considered the prized get for pro-Gingrich groups.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/112129/Newt's-Loot%3A-Billionaire-Commits-%2420M.html

And where does our Revolution Pac stand at? I remember some people claiming $10 million by January.

[tmg19103]

The strategy is simple.

Attack Newt now in IA and NH.

Win IA and come in second to Mittens in NH.

Newt is then toast and it is Romney v. Paul.

THEN you carpet bomb the next states with attack ads against Romney on his flip-flopping, corporatism with Bain, Romneycare, etc.

[JohnGalt23g]

Newt’s Loot: Billionaire Commits $20M

(Thursday, December 15th, 2011)

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is planning to direct $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO – the first answer to urgent pleas from allies to the former speaker’s longtime billionaire supporters.

After leaving Congress, Gingrich cultivated a network of a few dozen über-wealthy backers who poured tens of millions of dollars into a network of groups that helped him maintain a foothold in politics. Now, operatives supporting his presidential campaign are asking those same donors to write fat checks to a suite of new super PACs they hope can spend big on ads to offset Gingrich campaign fundraising that had lagged behind his rivals’.

Adelson is considered the prized get for pro-Gingrich groups.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/112129/Newt's-Loot%3A-Billionaire-Commits-%2420M.html

Adelson has publicly denied that report.

[Sweman]

From their recent poll of New Mexico:
This development shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone here, but still good news!

[samsung1]

"The Sunday interviews are going to determine our leader in Iowa...very close between Romney and Paul. Newt likely down to 3rd"

Does this mean that the interviews PPP is conducting today will determine who is leading Iowa in their polling data? if so then Ron and Mitt must be tied at this point Or were they talking about sunday morning interviews on the TV shows?

[trey4sports]

"The Sunday interviews are going to determine our leader in Iowa...very close between Romney and Paul. Newt likely down to 3rd"

Does this mean that the interviews PPP is conducting today will determine who is leading Iowa in their polling data? if so then Ron and Mitt must be tied at this point Or were they talking about sunday morning interviews on the TV shows?

i think they are talking about their Sunday polling interviews.

[parocks]

The strategy is simple.

Attack Newt now in IA and NH.

Win IA and come in second to Mittens in NH.

Newt is then toast and it is Romney v. Paul.

THEN you carpet bomb the next states with attack ads against Romney on his flip-flopping, corporatism with Bain, Romneycare, etc.

Yeah. This seems to be the conventional wisdom, and that makes a lot of sense.

I'd rather see Bachmann and Santorum higher than Perry and Huntman, in addition.

[Roy Bleckert]

Win Iowa & NH & get the Big Government/Esltablishment back on their heels & Ron has the Big Mo to Win the Nomination !

[sailingaway]

Yeah. This seems to be the conventional wisdom, and that makes a lot of sense.

I'd rather see Bachmann and Santorum higher than Perry and Huntman, in addition.
I would rather see them higher than Huntsman, but not Perry. Perry does not worry me. He has a record.

[speciallyblend]

The strategy is simple.

Attack Newt now in IA and NH.

Win IA and come in second to Mittens in NH.

Newt is then toast and it is Romney v. Paul.

THEN you carpet bomb the next states with attack ads against Romney on his flip-flopping, corporatism with Bain, Romneycare, etc.

If we win iowa. We have a strong chance to win NH!! I say let's win both states and then top 1-3 in sc/fl and we are on our way to securing the gop nomination before convention! If we win ia/nh there will be a ron paul surge in sc and florida. If we placed 2nd place in iowa/nh and top 1-3 in upcoming states. Then we have a very strong chance to win at convention! Ron Paul vs Status Quo. If the gop does not nominate Ron Paul. Then this country deserves obama/romney 2012 bendover!

[parocks]

I would rather see them higher than Huntsman, but not Perry. Perry does not worry me. He has a record.

We're talking about Perry, Santorum, Bachmann, right?

I'd rather have Perry on the bottom there. He has money. He's currently stronger in the south than Bachmann or Santorum. Huntsman also has money.

I'd like coming out of Iowa (giving something plausible) - Paul, Romney, Santorum, Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Huntsman. That's not a prediction, at all, but a good result. I'd like Gingrich behind Huntsman if at all possible. and Perry. But that's not really plausible in Iowa. That is plausible in NH.


http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/nov/ISUpoll - check that poll out. One month ago.

http://www.news.iastate.edu/images/2011/nov/ISUPoll1.jpg

Take Cain's vote and spread it around. Switch Santorum and Perry. That's basically what we want.

[ItsTime]

If we win iowa. We have a strong chance to win NH!! I say let's win both states and then top 1-3 in sc/fl and we are on our way to securing the gop nomination before convention! If we win ia/nh there will be a ron paul surge in sc and florida. If we placed 2nd place in iowa/nh and top 1-3 in upcoming states. Then we have a very strong chance to win at convention! Ron Paul vs Status Quo. If the gop does not nominate Ron Paul. Then this country deserves obama/romney 2012 bendover!

A wave is building....

[papitosabe]

Their last had Paul 2nd, within one point of first, which was newt, if I recall.

yea, he was second...according to fox..lmao

http://i.imgur.com/mOZti.jpg

[Omnica]

Newt’s Loot: Billionaire Commits $20M

(Thursday, December 15th, 2011)

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is planning to direct $20 million to an outside group backing Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, multiple sources told POLITICO – the first answer to urgent pleas from allies to the former speaker’s longtime billionaire supporters.

After leaving Congress, Gingrich cultivated a network of a few dozen über-wealthy backers who poured tens of millions of dollars into a network of groups that helped him maintain a foothold in politics. Now, operatives supporting his presidential campaign are asking those same donors to write fat checks to a suite of new super PACs they hope can spend big on ads to offset Gingrich campaign fundraising that had lagged behind his rivals’.

Adelson is considered the prized get for pro-Gingrich groups.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/112129/Newt's-Loot%3A-Billionaire-Commits-%2420M.html
Why are individuals limited to $2,500, while corporations can give unlimited millions?