At the 2 hour mark we're on track to BEAT the 5th of November!...

[Karsten]

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/dec_16_vs_nov_5_donations.png

Could we go ALL THE WAY (factoring in the Jay Leno bump)???

[hellsingfan]

nice :)

[Matthew Zak]

No we're not. Not even close.

[Matthew Zak]

We're on pace for 2 million.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QuXLnG4Xwy0/Turse48Hv_I/AAAAAAAAAZA/92f4Osr_q5g/s1600/12-16.jpg

[Lord Xar]

Ron MUST MENTION IT DURING HIS INTERVIEW!!!!

[Karsten]

Your graph fails to take into account the 8am bump.

[Karsten]

We're exceeding the 5th of November in my original post graph.

[Karsten]

We raised more in 2 hours today than we did on the 5th of November 2007, look at my graph.

[Matthew Zak]

Your graph fails to take into account the 8am bump.

Isn't your graph the one that fails to take into account the lack of donations before 8AM? This is a silly thing to argue over. But I'm comparing my projection based on the curvature of the previous two money bombs and how well we are doing compared to those. It seems we're in between them -- have been all night. I hope that you are correct and that at 8 AM everyone wakes up and donates at a relatively higher pace than they did this morning -- making this money bomb truly unique -- but I'm not getting my hopes up. As I mentioned in a previous post, all year I've been pretty accurate with my predictions within half a million or less. I hope you're right and that I'm wrong. Very wrong.

[Matthew Zak]

We raised more in 2 hours today than we did on the 5th of November 2007, look at my graph.

I am looking at it... and my eyes are telling me we're behind. Are we looking at the same graph? In the graph in your original post it looks like we had pulled in around 230,000 at the two hour mark. Today we had less than 210,000 right? Maybe I'm not seeing it correctly.

[Agorism]

2 million sounds about right. I remember his 6 million dollar day, and I recall seeing the ticker go up 100K in the first 5-10 min or so.

But fundraising was way up over past 10 days and will probably stay up so who knows that might be enough to make up the difference for the goal of 3 million or so.

[xRedfoxx]

I am looking at it... and my eyes are telling me we're behind. Are we looking at the same graph? In the graph in your original post it looks like we had pulled in around 230,000 at the two hour mark. Today we had less than 210,000 right? Maybe I'm not seeing it correctly.

$206,708 at 2 hours today

[LibertyDreckman]

How do we have a lot more supporters and a lot less money donated this time around....weird.

[Karsten]

I am looking at it... and my eyes are telling me we're behind. Are we looking at the same graph? In the graph in your original post it looks like we had pulled in around 230,000 at the two hour mark. Today we had less than 210,000 right? Maybe I'm not seeing it correctly.

I'm seeing that we will soon cross the 250,000 mark, which we didn't do until 3 hours in on the 5th of November.
Are you looking at the blue line?
I'm looking at the black line, the 5th of November, the title of my post.

[Matthew Zak]

How do we have a lot more supporters and a lot less money donated this time around....weird.

Wallstreet got bailed out with our money. Our money is worth less than it was before. And many of us lost our jobs.

[Karsten]

The BLACK line is the 5th of November. The BLUE line is Tea Party 07.
I am saying that we are on track to BEAT the 5th of November.
Not quite enough to beat Tea Party 07.... unless we push it big time and get a big Leno bump!

[Matthew Zak]

Yeah I am not seeing anything to convince me (nothing is more complicated than perception) that we're going to compete with November 5th 2007. I hope I'm wrong. At the same time, if I am right, I really don't want people to be getting all negative and depressed on the forums. It's not what we need. So I'm trying to keep our projections realistic. I hope 4 million or more is realistic. If I'm wrong no one will be happier than me.

[Sentinelrv]

BTO was at:

230am 220,146.19
300am 230,000.00
330am 242,000.00
400am 252,000.00


just fyi

Just hit $242! We're 56 minutes ahead of Black This Out now.

[RipperNT]

2007 was a much, much better time! :) Let's hope we get a big Leno Bump!

[Matthew Zak]

2007 was a much, much better time! :) Let's hope we get a big Leno Bump!

A last-second bump. lol

[Matthew Zak]

Just hit $242! We're 56 minutes ahead of Black This Out now.

Are you sure you're going by the same time zone?

[Karsten]

We have two possible bumps today later on.
It's payday.
And Leno.

[xRedfoxx]

Are you sure you're going by the same time zone?

we are now over 20k ahead of the BTO moneybomb rate

[akterence]

Wallstreet got bailed out with our money. Our money is worth less than it was before. And many of us lost our jobs.

That was Obama's campaign strategy btw....make sure no one has any money to donate for a better president....

[Sentinelrv]

Are you sure you're going by the same time zone?

No, I assumed it was EST. I need a good graph that shows all the times and amounts clearly.

[ronpaulyourmom]

Worth pointing out that Dec 16th, 2007 was a Sunday and so more people were up late donating. Nov 5th 2007 was a Monday and had a stronger relative performance during the day than the 16th.

Dec 16th, 2011 is a Friday, it's payday, school is wrapping, we have better poll numbers, Iowa and NH are on fire, Leno and Joe Rogan, facebook, twitter, probably reddit during the mid-day. If we can break through and get some press coverage going to spread the word tomorrow I sincerely believe we can set a new record and hit 7 million. Even if we don't quite get that, I'm very confident we'll hit that 4 million goal regardless.

[dolphin]

The graphs will not mean anything because after it slows down we will have another big push where a great many of us who have already contributed will do so again.

[kojirodensetsu]

I'm guessing we'll make around 2million or so today, given the current trends. So the campaign is going to have to cut back, sadly.

[newbitech]

fyi op, you are looking at the total donors graph. that is not the total money graph. here look at this one.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/dec_16_vs_nov_5_total.png

[Matthew Zak]

I'm guessing we'll make around 2million or so today, given the current trends. So the campaign is going to have to cut back, sadly.

They'll extend it through the weekend, I'm sure. In the end we'll get 3 million. Which is the minimum they needed.

But I think we've maxed out. Which means new supporters need to come out of the woodwork. If they don't, his campaign will have to go back to 2007 levels.

[Sentinelrv]

I'm guessing we'll make around 2million or so today, given the current trends. So the campaign is going to have to cut back, sadly.

We're almost 2 hours ahead of Black This Out, which got over $2 million, so I'm not so sure about that. I guess we'll see.

[Matthew Zak]

I think there is some confusion about timezones here.

What time zone does the "official" money bomb begin with?

What time zone are we looking at in our graphs?

I am looking at a graph that has us dead even with BTO. 2 Million. Let's get this settled.

[newbitech]

How do we have a lot more supporters and a lot less money donated this time around....weird.

layoffs didn't really start hitting hard until later in 2008. Tho I did lose my $25 mortgage origination support job in nov 2007, I had enough banked to be able to donate close to 1000 for both big money bombs and little bits and pieces between.

this time, I just got laid off from a $11.50 an hour job and that is the most money I have been able to consistently make in 4 years. My business cannot seem to support me with it's fits and starts either, especially after the IRS decided I owed them more then I said I owed them.. sucks, oh and student loan wage garnishments are not protected by S corp status either.

[parocks]

Worth pointing out that Dec 16th, 2007 was a Sunday and so more people were up late donating. Nov 5th 2007 was a Monday and had a stronger relative performance during the day than the 16th.

Dec 16th, 2011 is a Friday, it's payday, school is wrapping, we have better poll numbers, Iowa and NH are on fire, Leno and Joe Rogan, facebook, twitter, probably reddit during the mid-day. If we can break through and get some press coverage going to spread the word tomorrow I sincerely believe we can set a new record and hit 7 million. Even if we don't quite get that, I'm very confident we'll hit that 4 million goal regardless.

I'm not making any predictions, and I don't have much of a clue, but for BTO, everyone here was saying "must donate early, must donate early to set the trend lines, etc, etc" I don't see people talking like that right now here. Tea Party is the best possible moneybomb theme. Ron is on Leno. Those facts lead to the assumption that our numbers will be bigger. We've never been this high in the polls during a moneybomb day. A larger group to draw from.

[Sentinelrv]

I think there is some confusion about timezones here.

What time zone does the "official" money bomb begin with?

What time zone are we looking at in our graphs?

I am looking at a graph that has us dead even with BTO. 2 Million. Let's get this settled.

The campaign always goes by Eastern time. Somebody posted these donation amounts and times for Black This Out. We're getting close to $293,000, which was hit at 5:30 AM...


0.00
81,511.66
129,933.27 1
171,888.00
199,824.86 2
220,146.19
230,000.00 3
242,000.00
252,000.00 4
263,599.00
275,000.00 5
293,000.00
303,000.00 6
317,000.00
333,000.00 7
353,000.00
380,000.00 8
415,000.00
463,719.49 9
515,759.58
575,465.11 10
633,939.74
685,991.30 11
749,627.93
816,322.54 12 noon
852,164.00
890,000.00 1
928,000.00
966,000.00 2
999,000.00
1,046,268.71 3
1,089,061.53
1,145,944.73 4
1,203,000.00
1,260,000.00 5
1,317,529.73
1,379,528.00 6
1,444,842.21
1,496,574.88 7
1,558,217.93
1,633,374.67 8
1,710,000.00
1,788,873.03 9
1,852,947.70
1,914,817.36 10
1,982,579.33
2,047,201.66 11
2,103,148.09
2,158,794.46 12 midnight

[Matthew Zak]

The campaign always goes by Eastern time. Somebody posted these donation amounts and times for Black This Out. We're getting close to $293,000, which was hit at 5:30 AM...

Something isn't right. Either those numbers don't represent Eastern Time, or this graph is receiving/reflecting the wrong information. Well, either that or it's just a bad visual guide. But it looks to me that we're dead even with BTO according to this graph.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E5qD44_PSaI/Tur7RY0CUXI/AAAAAAAAAZg/Qz4G_M4uMoA/s1600/12-16.jpg

[newbitech]

yeah the 3:30 number printed at like 3:10. lets see if it corrects in 4 minutes

[Sentinelrv]

xRedfoxx (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?612-xRedfoxx) posted the numbers I quoted above, though I think he's offline now so we can't ask him where he got them from or if they're accurate.

If the numbers are right though, then this money bomb is currently 1 hour and 30 minutes ahead of Black This Out. We just hit $293,000, which was hit at 5:30 AM on BTO according to those numbers. It's now only 4:00 AM.

[parocks]

Something isn't right. Either those numbers don't represent Eastern Time, or this graph is receiving/reflecting the wrong information. Well, either that or it's just a bad visual guide. But it looks to me that we're dead even with BTO according to this graph.




It's a bad visual guide. We're in the same ballpark as BTO. But if you look, the red dots started below the purple line, and now they're over the purple line.
At .5 and at 1, the majority of the red dot is below the purple line. at 1.5, the red line goes through the dot, and since then, the majority of the dot has been over the purple line. We're ahead of BTO by about a hour and a half. There's really no reason to look at the graph. The numbers from BTO are available, and we're ahead of BTO by about 1.5 hours at this point. We're at 293K right now. we reached 293K at 530p BTO.

[Matthew Zak]

It's a bad visual guide. We're in the same ballpark as BTO. But if you look, the red dots started below the purple line, and now they're over the purple line.
At .5 and at 1, the majority of the red dot is below the purple line. at 1.5, the red line goes through the dot, and since then, the majority of the dot has been over the purple line. We're ahead of BTO by about a hour and a half. There's really no reason to look at the graph. The numbers from BTO are available, and we're ahead of BTO by about 1.5 hours at this point. We're at 293K right now. we reached 293K at 530p BTO.

How do you think this will play out over the course of the day? BTO was a little over 2 million, right? Do you suppose we'll get 2.5? That would be great, because then through the weekend we could make it 3.5.

[Sentinelrv]

How do you think this will play out over the course of the day? BTO was a little over 2 million, right? Do you suppose we'll get 2.5? That would be great, because then through the weekend we could make it 3.5.

I think it depends on if Ron plugs the money bomb on Leno. Also, I'm thinking people will decide to give more since this will be the last one before the election.

[newbitech]

It's a bad visual guide. We're in the same ballpark as BTO. But if you look, the red dots started below the purple line, and now they're over the purple line.
At .5 and at 1, the majority of the red dot is below the purple line. at 1.5, the red line goes through the dot, and since then, the majority of the dot has been over the purple line. We're ahead of BTO by about a hour and a half. There's really no reason to look at the graph. The numbers from BTO are available, and we're ahead of BTO by about 1.5 hours at this point. We're at 293K right now. we reached 293K at 530p BTO.

looks like we can't use the graph anymore anyways, it has stopped updating. I look at it in terms of dollars tho. We are at 4:00am hour, so nearly 50k ahead. That number will grow steadily. still averaging over 1k per minute. BTO was only getting like 333 a minute till the 8am ramp. We'll get a much better ramp than that, I believe.

[TheDuke]

Why is Ron not promoting his own money bomb when on national television??? CNN, Fox etc... all opportunities wasted.

If he's not going to do it on Leno, he's not going to get 4 million :(

[Agorism]

Our baseline donations over past week has been about 70-80K compared to 10-15K or so a few months ago. That means slight increase tomorrow on top of existing money bomb

[Sentinelrv]

Why is Ron not promoting his own money bomb when on national television??? CNN, Fox etc... all opportunities wasted.

If he's not going to do it on Leno, he's not going to get 4 million :(

I believe he tried saying something about it on Hannity's interview tonight, but it wasn't clear. I'd have to watch it again and see.

[parocks]

How do you think this will play out over the course of the day? BTO was a little over 2 million, right? Do you suppose we'll get 2.5? That would be great, because then through the weekend we could make it 3.5.

I think we'll do better than 2.5. Perhaps quite substantially so. Better than 2.5. How much better? I dunno. We have Ron Paul in a Hannity interview saying that today is the 4th anniversary of the modern tea party. And a Leno appearance. I think the campaign does want this to be a strong day, they probably do want the press to report on the connections between tea party and Ron Paul. So, I'd expect that they'll take out their guns for this one. Evidence of excitement of RPF isn't very high. However, evidence of excitement on RPF at all recently hasn't been high either. Evidence exists that the campaign is getting high pledges supports the argument that what's going on on RPF isn't really pushing things as much now as before. The official campaign drives things this time around, last time around the grassroots drove more.

[Sentinelrv]

I think we'll do better than 2.5. Perhaps quite substantially so. Better than 2.5. How much better? I dunno. We have Ron Paul in a Hannity interview saying that today is the 4th anniversary of the modern tea party. And a Leno appearance. I think the campaign does want this to be a strong day, they probably do want the press to report on the connections between tea party and Ron Paul. So, I'd expect that they'll take out their guns for this one. Evidence of excitement of RPF isn't very high. However, evidence of excitement on RPF at all recently hasn't been high either. Evidence exists that the campaign is getting high pledges supports the argument that what's going on on RPF isn't really pushing things as much now as before. The official campaign drives things this time around, last time around the grassroots drove more.

I agree with that. As much as I'd like to think our efforts here to organize the money bomb are really the driving force behind these things, we were only able to must about 3,000 pledges while the campaign sends out an email to their massive list and they get almost $1 million dollars worth of pledges in a couple days.

[affa]

just keep pushing, and remind anyone you know that's a Paul supporter that 'today is the day'. All of us know because we're neck deep in these forums.... but not everyone is like us. 4 years ago, moneybombs were new, and many people were just discovering Ron Paul for the first time, watching tons of youtube vids (the Ron Paul youtube addiction), many of which mentioned the moneybombs. It's harder now, what with moneybombs being old hat and the economy being so terrible.

Just give what you can, tell people, and hope RP mentions it on Leno.

[thehighwaymanq]

Our baseline donations over past week has been about 70-80K compared to 10-15K or so a few months ago. That means slight increase tomorrow on top of existing money bomb

Also means we have been bringing in much higher amounts than the campaign expects us to have. I think we are going to post some solid Q4 numbers that we aren't seeing from MBs.

[Agorism]

Also means we have been bringing in much higher amounts than the campaign expects us to have. I think we are going to post some solid Q4 numbers that we aren't seeing from MBs.

Seems like daily fundraising went up after that PPP poll not the whole Q4. By the time Q4 is announced, we will prolly be past super tuesday though

[thehighwaymanq]

Seems like daily fundraising went up after that PPP poll not the whole Q4. By the time Q4 is announced, we will prolly be past super tuesday though

Won't it end at the end of the month and we'll find out on Jan. 15?

[RonPaulIsGreat]

Well, I just donated and I didn't donate on the last few moneybombs, I think we'll see a spike during the day, seeing this is the last real money push for a while, seeing we need to show at least a comparable level of donations compared to the last moneybomb. Really, everyone should give something on this one. The media will rip on us if we don't at least get close to the previous tea party numbers.

And to add, why is there no real time graph on ron paul forums? That should be there

[parocks]

I agree with that. As much as I'd like to think our efforts here to organize the money bomb are really the driving force behind these things, we were only able to must about 3,000 pledges while the campaign sends out an email to their massive list and they get almost $1 million dollars worth of pledges in a couple days.

And there's a real difference between 2011 and 2007. In 2007 the grassroots was the driving force behind a lot of things, and in 2011, it's pretty much all campaign. We're clearly doing much better this time around. Our success this time around is not due really to grassroots activities anywhere near as much as in 2007. The campaign is doing a great job this time around.

I would be more surprised if this didn't pass BTO than if it did pass tea party 07. We just are doing better in the polls now than at any time in 07.