New Hampshire Suffolk Poll

[pauliticalfan]

Some weird shenanigans going on here. Boston.com had a preview in Google News showing a new Suffolk University New Hampshire poll as follows:

Romney- 38%
Gingrich- 20%
Huntsman- 13%
Paul- 8%

When you go to click on the article, however, it's been pulled from the website. I can't find the poll anywhere else on the Internet, but it's spreading around Twitter. I hope the reason it was pulled is because it's BS, but brace yourselves. We need to work extremely hard.

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/7484/screenshot20111214at105.png

Search for yourself. I have no clue how this is possible, as we were at 18% and 21% in two New Hampshire polls just yesterday.

UPDATE: It's confirmed. Suffolk is showing us at 8% in New Hampshire. I don't even know what to think...

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_New_Hampshire_GOP_Marginals_Dec_13_2011.pdf

[JoshS]

wut

[pauliticalfan]

Shit, it's real.

[RP Supporter]

What were we in the last Suffolk poll?That's really all it should be compared to.

[emr1028]

Is it possible that it was 18%, and it was merely a mistype? It's nice to see Huntsman rising though. I suspect that if Romney does poorly in Iowa Huntsman may steal many of his supporters, and end up pretty much knocking him into oblivion in NH.

[Agorism]

Well O'Rielly does need a poll for his television show...

[BLS]

Boston is UBER liberal. Romney gets a ton of Northeastern R votes from there.
Don't sweat it.
We need 2nd in NH...we'll never get 1st.

[RP Supporter]

Last poll by this group I could find was November 16-20, 2011. Had us at 14%. Huntsman at 9%

Hmm...

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/edit.FINAL.New.Hampshire.GOP.Statewide.Marginals.N ov.20.2011.pdf

[Havax]

0% chance Huntsman has more support than us in New Hampshire. Close the thread.

[JoshS]

But like...what happened?

[redmod79]

400/400 very likely to vote???

[kylejack]

0% chance Huntsman has more support than us in New Hampshire. Close the thread.
He is invested pretty heavily there...

[MRoCkEd]

I'm not one to discredit a poll simply because it's unfavorable for us, but the BS detector is going off on this one.

[pauliticalfan]

Get ready for it, media's gonna push Huntsman big time. I just down get how one poll shows us at 21% one day and 8% the next. Makes no sense.

[RP Supporter]

Their last poll in 2008 had us at 5 on January 6–7, 2008. Also had Mitt Romney leading by 4 points, when he actually lost to John McCain by 6.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/NH_Day_7_and_8_Marginals_Jan_8_2008.html

I feel a bit better now.

[Agorism]

Our RCP average is 18%, but they want to make it 8 al of a sudden..

[braane]

Our RCP average is 18%. This pretty much sums up my thoughts...Surely a poll of polls can't be so far off... 10%. No.

[kylejack]

Crosstabs: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_for_posting_Dec_13_2011.pdf

[tremendoustie]

They must have messed up criteria. I'm in NH and if anything the atmosphere is more and more pro-paul every day. Check the crosstabs.

[trey4sports]

there was a poll that came out the other day that had us at 21% trailing Romney by 8%. Seems these polls are very different.

[tremendoustie]

Crosstabs: http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_for_posting_Dec_13_2011.pdf

Has Ron losing the youth vote to Romney and Gingrich by double. Only 36 youth polled.

Ok, that's just 100% false. Paul's support should be heavily, heavily slanted young.

[Paul or not at all]

SOMEONE SHOW THE OTHER POLL!

[eric4186]

found a source. it's real. get ready for a media pump of Huntsman. this is gonna be bad.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/romney-still-strong-in-n-h-new-poll-shows-20111214?mrefid=election2012

[braane]

Their crosstabs show just 6 people polled aged 18-24... and 30 people aged 25-34

Those are the demographics Ron dominates... probably a big reason to only get 8%.

[JoshS]

and it begins

[sailingaway]

How come they didn't ask what their 'major concerns were' with a Huntsman presidency? And who picked those options? This almost seems like a push poll except the push is after the question.

Well, this could be from the gingrich/huntsman love fest, it was designed to undermine Romney to Huntsman's benefit.

We'll just have to get it back.

I'm not seeing what the margin of error was.

Well, Ron was there today.

[muh_roads]

It is either dead wrong, or the campaign needs to start spending money in NH big time.

[kylejack]

Ok, that's just 100% false. Paul's support should be heavily, heavily slanted young.
Scratch it, I wasn't reading the crosstabs properly.

[pauliticalfan]

The timing of this is so damn convenient.

[RP Supporter]

Well if there's any good news to be had in this, maybe the media will underestimate Paul again. I'm all for Romney aiding us in wining Iowa if he thinks we'll be easy to beat in New Hampshire then Gingrich.

[kylejack]

44-37 Favorable Unfavorable

[fearthereaperx]

Looks like Huntsman didnt take any away from Romney; that's not good

[pauliticalfan]

Anyone have a date on this poll though?

[Agorism]

That anti-Newt ad actually boosted Ron Paul's favorability in Iowa because people liked that someone was willing to call him out on it.

Maybe we need anti-Rommey ad there?

[Aratus]

ron paul is about to win iowa, newt took over the souls of the neo-cons and maybe or maybe not perhaps or perhaps not possibly jon huntsman has fractured off some of mitt's monolith. this election is creating skyrocket flash in the pan candidates and a plethora of favorite sons. if mitt + jon carve off half of n.h do we split the other half with newt? the southern section that is more populous may go masswhole in a big way. most good ole yankees are a dying breed in quiet hollers what is left of the more rural areas. if all polls are accurate, then the voters are in a volatile mood akin to the way many people were who were drawn to colorful characters in the rough and rugged 1930s like norman thomas + huey long.

[sailingaway]

Methodology
The statewide survey of 400 likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary was conducted Dec. 10-13, 2011, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.9 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.suffolk.edu/49739.html

[sailingaway]

That anti-Newt ad actually boosted Ron Paul's favorability in Iowa because people liked that someone was willing to call him out on it.

Maybe we need anti-Rommey ad there?

Romney isn't taking any votes from Ron - Huntsman is. Independents. Huntsman has no day job and is living in NH.

And Huntsman's Daddy funded a superpac which is running ads on Huntsman's behalf -- a big buy. Ron has nothing positive out now. Ron needs money.

[kylejack]

Cain is on this poll at 2%, heh. Roemer also at 2.

[LibertyEsq]

So we're supposed to believe the polls are accurate, yet one has us at 21% the other 8% with the RCP average at 18.7%.

I call BS. We're going to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

[pauliticalfan]

Today really hasn't been a good day. They're trying to shred us up out there. I knew the establishment wasn't gonna give up without a fight, but man. I think I need to call it a night.

[kylejack]

Romney isn't taking any votes from Ron - Huntsman is. Independents. Huntsman has no day job and is living in NH.

And Huntsman's Daddy funded a superpac which is running ads on Huntsman's behalf -- a big buy. Ron has nothing positive out now. Ron needs money.
According to this poll, if Romney drops out: Paul takes 11% of them and Huntsman takes 9%. Source: crosstabs page 55 http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_for_posting_Dec_13_2011.pdf

[JoshS]

Right before the debate. Wonder what the post debate will be about.

[sailingaway]

According to this poll, if Romney drops out: Paul takes 11% of them and Huntsman takes 9%. Source: crosstabs page 55 http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_for_posting_Dec_13_2011.pdf

I'm not saying it couldn't go the other way. I'm saying Romney went down, and Ron went down. Huntsman went up.

[Aratus]

sailingaway. normally romney the centrist pitches to bedroom suburb "indys" here. trust me.
irony is, huntsman is like mitt without the flipflops. huntsman is pulling from mitt and ron both.
jon huntsman is most likely to be a thought concerning a GOP sec' of state down the road if he
does well and is top three. we still have time to reduce newt to 4th place and i think we need
to send rand up north of me pronto after he does a few speeches in iowa. this is my idea now.

[69360]

What's going on lately with some of these polls varying 10-12 points in the same time period from one pollster to another?

[Paul or not at all]

Ron Paul polling 21% in NEW HAMPSHIRE, Romney: 29%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_NH_1213.pdf

[LibertyEsq]

Even Rasmussen has us at 18%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Insider Advantage at 21%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_NH_1213.pdf

stupid poll. college polls are usually among the most inaccurate

[sailingaway]

What's going on lately with some of these polls varying 10-12 points in the same time period from one pollster to another?

Yeah. It has been that way throughout. My problem is that I have no clue what the accurate polls are for New Hampshire.

[tremendoustie]

Well, suffolk did poll fewer independents, and fewer young people -- but that doesn't account for the difference. Among middle aged people IA shows RP support about 15% higher than suffolk does. It just doesn't make sense .... I have to say, the IA poll does seem odd to me -- for example, how can you have 1.5% support among black people, when there are only 6 black people polled? All of their small sample sizes have strange decimal numbers.

Unfortunately, I can't check the rassmussen crosstabs (they had paul at 18%), because it's behind a paywall.

[thehungarian]

lulz

[Disconsolate]

I've never understood why NH, where the free state project chose to setup camp, wouldn't be batshit crazy over Ron Paul.

I mean, if it's such a favorable climate to move to promote liberty, why is it such an automatic win for Romney?

[sailingaway]

The Suffolk poll was just 400 people spread between the 10th and 13th.

Rasmussen's was on the 12th and was over 700 people.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary

[kylejack]

The Suffolk poll was just 400 people spread between the 10th and 13th.

Rasmussen's was on the 12th and was over 700 people.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary
Good point. The debate was on the 10th.

[lucent]

Q29. Would you describe yourself as conservative, moderate or liberal?
N= 400 100%
Conservative ................................... 1 213 53%
Moderate ....................................... 2 148 37%
Liberal ........................................ 3 26 7%
Undecided ...................................... 4 13 3%

[tremendoustie]

I've never understood why NH, where the free state project chose to setup camp, wouldn't be batshit crazy over Ron Paul.

1000 people are less than 0.1% of 1.3m people, which is the population of NH. The point is not that we waltz in and have instant libertarian utopia or something. The point is that liberty activists are far more effective when we can work in concert. That's exactly what we've seen, actually. The list of pro-liberty state reps and state legislation is enormous.



I mean, if it's such a favorable climate to move to promote liberty, why is it such an automatic win for Romney?

Ron Paul's polling higher in NH that he polls anywhere else in the country, except IA, where he's been pouring in the bulk of his time and campaign resources.

And Romney's been greasing political palms here for years.

[kylejack]

1000 people are less than 0.1% of 1.3m people, which is the population of NH. The point is not that we waltz in and have instant libertarian utopia or something. The point is that liberty activists are far more effective when we can work in concert. That's exactly what we've seen, actually. The list of pro-liberty state reps and state legislation is enormous.
I think the poster's talking about the fact that NH was selected because of the pro-liberty climate it already [supposedly] had.

[tremendoustie]

I think the poster's talking about the fact that NH was selected because of the pro-liberty climate it already [supposedly] had.

It does, if you look at state law, have a great pro-liberty climate.

And, again, Ron's polling numbers in NH are tied for the highest in the nation @21%. What do you want? The only reason that number is not equivalent to the lead, is because support for other candidates is more fractured -- instead of supporting paul, gingrich, romney, perry, bachman, and santorum (as in Iowa), folks just support paul, romney, gingrich, and huntsman -- so, the top polling candidate is in the low 30s instead of the low 20s.

[69360]

RCP doesn't seem to be including this in the average. Perhaps there is something wrong with the poll?

They didn't include that ARG poll the other day either because something was wrong with it.

[kylejack]

RCP doesn't seem to be including this in the average. Perhaps there is something wrong with the poll?

They didn't include that ARG poll the other day either because something was wrong with it.
This poll just came out tonight. Takes them a day or so to add new polls that are acceptable.

[Razmear]

Going blind reading the crosstabs, but something just aint right. Perry is at 1%?

Can someone explain what is on page 39 of the 210 page PDF file. (note my reader shows it at page 37, but the page is marked Page 39).

Paste failed, heres a screenshot

http://razmear.com/misc/pollcross.png

Edit, just read it the right way, very confusing crosstabs....

[kylejack]

Going blind reading the crosstabs, but something just aint right. Perry is at 1%?

Can someone explain what is on page 39 of the 210 page PDF file. (note my reader shows it at page 37, but the page is marked Page 39).

Paste failed, heres a screenshot

http://razmear.com/misc/pollcross.png

What is going on in the Vote For In Republican Primary section here? Looks like were ahead???
Check out the favorability crosstab for him. Unfavorable was in the 60s if I recall correctly. They hate his guts.

[kylejack]

The screenshot you took is of a gender crosstab. Romney's recorded backers were 54% female 46% male, for example. Note Paul is much stronger with men, as is often shown.

[Inkblots]

Even Rasmussen has us at 18%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Insider Advantage at 21%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_NH_1213.pdf

stupid poll. college polls are usually among the most inaccurate

I was going to say, that U of Iowa poll the other day was a huge downward outlier for Paul as well - it had him at 10 in Iowa. College pollsters seem to do a very poor job capturing Paul's support. Why that is, I won't speculate.

[Razmear]

On page 42, only 36 people are under age 35 in this poll. 200 are over 55. I think that's why our numbers are so low.


additional info:
Just checked the census data for NH, 13.5% of the population is over 65, 29% of those polled here were over 65.

[cpike]

What was the confidence on this? Usually its 95% which means 1 out of 20 polls falls outside the margin of error. Perhaps this is one? Either this or the one showing us at 20% and high teens. Still, just have to keep working.

[CUnknown]

I've never understood why NH, where the free state project chose to setup camp, wouldn't be batshit crazy over Ron Paul.

I mean, if it's such a favorable climate to move to promote liberty, why is it such an automatic win for Romney?

They voted for McCain last time. We just have to get used to the idea that NH is just another "moderate" northeastern state with an emphasis on liking globalists. McCain at that point was still considered a moderate, I think, and not the psycho imperialist warmonger that we love to hate today.

[kylejack]

On page 42, only 36 people are under age 35 in this poll. 200 are over 55. I think that's why our numbers are so low.


additional info:
Just checked the census data for NH, 13.5% of the population is over 65, 29% of those polled here were over 65.
Eh? I'm not seeing a 65 crosstab?

[Razmear]

Eh? I'm not seeing a 65 crosstab?

On page 42 there are questions broken down by age group, they list the number of respondents by age.

[Razmear]

Here is a screen shot of page 42
http://razmear.com/misc/pollcross2.png

[mwkaufman]

What was the confidence on this? Usually its 95% which means 1 out of 20 polls falls outside the margin of error. Perhaps this is one? Either this or the one showing us at 20% and high teens. Still, just have to keep working.

I'd attribute the terrible showing in this, or Ron Paul at 10% in the Univ. of Iowa poll, or Gingrich getting 5% in the Iowa State poll to be flukes that suggest professional polling companies are better at their jobs than university political science departments. Maybe they just got really unlucky, but more likely they got unlucky and are doing something wrong. When they say +/- 4.9% with 95% confidence, it doesn't mean 5% of the time they're going to be off by 10%. That's going to be much rarer.

Paul Age Crosstabs
18-34 25%
35-54 8%
55-74 5%
75+ 3%

[Student Of Paulism]

Total BS poll in my opinion. He is obviously over 20% in some NH polling, no way in hell he is under 10% at this point, unless they polled like 5 people.

However, it is true he doesn't do all that well among the old farts who are watching FOX constantly :rolleyes:

[kylejack]

On page 42 there are questions broken down by age group, they list the number of respondents by age.
Okay. A more important question, then, is what is the age breakdown of likely voters?

[Razmear]

According to the poll 100% of the respondents are likely republican voters, however 84 of the 400 think Obama will be the next president.
This poll is whacked and not adjusted to reflect the demographics of the state.
If 13.5% of the population is over 65 and 29% of the poll respondents are over 65, then their responses need to have a weighted average attached to them.
I haven't found census data on the other age groups to see how they match up, but with 50% of this poll being of people over 55 it's obviously faulty.

eb

[LibertyDreckman]

Wow. :( I'm absolutely devastated.

[kylejack]

According to the poll 100% of the respondents are likely republican voters, however 84 of the 400 think Obama will be the next president.
This poll is whacked and not adjusted to reflect the demographics of the state.
If 13.5% of the population is over 65 and 29% of the poll respondents are over 65, then their responses need to have a weighted average attached to them.
I haven't found census data on the other age groups to see how they match up, but with 50% of this poll being of people over 55 it's obviously faulty.

eb
Well you can't use Census data as an expectation if that's not how people vote. Seniors vote at a much higher rate than young people. Maybe not that much higher, but higher.

[Rudeman]

So he has the 2nd best favorability rating yet is 4th in the poll? This poll seems really fishy, especially with all the recent polls having him with at least double the support.

The last poll that had him under double digits in NH was back in the beginning of Oct.

[LibertyDreckman]

They have showed it on MSNBC this morning....and they will certainly be touting it on Morning Joe because Huntsman's numbers....I cannot believe this poll. why did this poll have to come out now. I'm sick.

[bluesc]

The poll is BS. It's just a tool the establishment will use the neutralize the Paul threat and to dismiss his surge and make it appear to be limited to only Iowa. Every other recent NH poll shows him double digits and climbing. Keep working people, we can win NH too.