Romney has massive Intrade lead in NH

[Agorism]

If we don't win Iowa, it's probably "lights out."

But if we don't win NH also, it's probably "lights out" in the long term as well.

Doesn't that make NH just as important?




Mitt Romney to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
72.9%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
8.0%
CHANCE Predict

Jon Huntsman to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
9.5%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
8.5%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Perry to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
0.5%
CHANCE Predict

Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Event: New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
0.3%
CHANCE Predi

[RonPaulCult]

That's not true at all. If we win one of the two we are in great shape. Everybody expects Romney to win on his home turf in NH. We should be able to score second place at the least and that will make it a race between Romney and Paul, especially if we win Iowa and Gingrich comes in third there.

[JohnGalt23g]

This is an expectations game. Everybody expects Romney to win NH, so all we have to do is place a respectable second.

Of course beating him would be sweet too :D

[kylejack]

Nah, with proportional representation we are going to terrorize this nomination for quite some time. We might not win, but we're going to collect a lot of delegates.

[Xenophage]

I really think that settling is a bad idea. Go for first everywhere. I remember in 2008 we were ecstatic to get third or fourth place sometimes (sometimes just because we had beaten The Ghoul!). This time around, I don't want to say I'll be saddened by 2nd place in Iowa or New Hampshire, but I really don't think there's any reason we can't get 1st in both.

[InTradePro]

NH is not an issue if we win Iowa.

Intrade have hardly any action in this market; it's hard to even find the market on the site.
Also yes, it's an expectations game, and so the market reflects that. Even so Romney has dropped from 90% to 70% so it's going in the right directon.

[Epic]

I'm in the "Ron Paul must win BOTH IA and NH" camp.

If he only wins IA, then he'll go three primaries - NH, SC, and FL without winning, and by then, Romney or Gingrich will be riding too high to topple likely.

I think we need a quick strike strategy. Beat the establishment before they know what's happening.