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cdc482
12-14-2011, 06:38 PM
I heard you need at least 30% to win, even if the field is decided because it's a caucus state, and people ban together. Any thoughts?

sailingaway
12-14-2011, 06:39 PM
I think the number of people there will be much bigger than people are thinking. People are pissed, and want to do something about it. So we have to get as many votes as we can, period.

brendan.orourke
12-14-2011, 06:40 PM
Sure, but I want 35% damnit!!!!!!!!

muh_roads
12-14-2011, 06:41 PM
20% = the older folks with land lines.

It isn't including the enthusiastic young cellphone vote.

Yes we have a real chance at this thing.

jsingh1022
12-14-2011, 06:44 PM
It seems in the last few GOP Iowa results you need at least closer to 30%

2008 - Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)
2000 - George W. Bush (41%)[citation needed], Steve Forbes (30%)[citation needed], Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996 - Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)

muh_roads
12-14-2011, 06:46 PM
We must not rest on our laurels. Keep phone bombing!

Fermli
12-14-2011, 06:48 PM
No, 20% won't win. You have to keep in mind that the percentages in these polls don't add up to 100% because of undecideds. The recent PPP iowa poll had results that totaled 93%, excluding undecideds. The ~7% undecideds will bump up the percentages that we see in the polls. Also need to keep this in mind when you compare polls to the actual election results.

Someone will get above 25% in the caucus.

RonPaulCult
12-14-2011, 06:48 PM
Not likely

KingNothing
12-14-2011, 06:51 PM
20% = the older folks with land lines.

It isn't including the enthusiastic young cellphone vote.

Yes we have a real chance at this thing.

The polling includes cellphones. The polls will be roughly accurate. They will undercount the youth vote, but not by more than 5-percent. ....that said, I'm still expecting about 30-percent and a victory.

LatinsforPaul
12-14-2011, 06:53 PM
Sure, but I want 35% damnit!!!!!!!!

I expect or should I say hope for 40% with

Romney at 20%
Bachmann at 14% and
Gingrich at 11%

Tax the Fed
12-14-2011, 06:55 PM
It seems in the last few GOP Iowa results you need at least closer to 30%

2008 - Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)


Thanks alot for the compilation of data - really.

But it is unfortunately that these are the numbers that gets put out to the media - called in from each precinct that night.

But like Nevada, the Iowa caucus is more complicated than the percentages.

It is about delegates won - two from each precinct and one alternate - that can get first to the Congressional District Convention (April)
and then get elected to the State Convention held in June !

That collection of delegates from the June State Convention is the end game of the long caucus process that go to Tampa Bay-St. Pete in August 2012

http://gopconvention2012.com/

As I understand it, the Nevada caucuses are much the same as Iowa, but the process starting later of course.

To their credit (I am more of a recent/part-time official resident but a GOP registered Iowan voter)
a great number of Iowans DO try to be informed as much as they can about meeting candidates etc.
and DO take the responsibility as first caucus a bit seriously imho.

LibertyEagle
12-14-2011, 06:56 PM
If you want to do something about it, volunteer with the campaign's PHONE-FROM-HOME program. They need many more people.

You will hate yourself later, if you didn't do it and he loses by just a few votes.

Brett85
12-14-2011, 06:57 PM
The polling includes cellphones. The polls will be roughly accurate. They will undercount the youth vote, but not by more than 5-percent. ....that said, I'm still expecting about 30-percent and a victory.

That's what I'm guessing. I think that Ron will probably end up about 5% higher than what the polls show.

cdc482
12-14-2011, 06:58 PM
That's what I'm guessing. I think that Ron will probably end up about 5% higher than what the polls show.
So we still need another 10-15% if this election is anything like the last 2...

PauliticsPolitics
12-14-2011, 06:59 PM
Well, to play the math game, it is technically possible to win with 20%. But such an outcome would require a very split vote.
Like:
20% Paul
19% Newt
18% Mitt
13% Bachmann
11% Perry
9% Santorum
7% Huntsman
3% Other (Cain-holdouts, Johnson, Roemer, Karger, Uncommitted, etc.)


I personally would like to see Ron Paul match or beat Obama's 37.6% number from 2008.

Paulitics 2011
12-14-2011, 07:05 PM
The bottom line is that we have to fight like we're losing either way.

69360
12-14-2011, 07:08 PM
20% = the older folks with land lines.

It isn't including the enthusiastic young cellphone vote.

That myth has been thoroughly debunked


I heard you need at least 30% to win, even if the field is decided because it's a caucus state, and people ban together. Any thoughts?

I think 25% in polling right before the caucus will win it this year. The field is divided and opening up.

Karsten
12-14-2011, 07:15 PM
No, but I think we can win Iowa with 20% IN THE POLLS going into Iowa.

erowe1
12-14-2011, 07:17 PM
I think we can win the first couple contests with as little as 20%. But if that does happen, then the field will get whittled down to a single establishment champion against Ron Paul pretty fast, and from then on we need to figure on needing 50% to win the rest of the primaries.

bbartlog
12-14-2011, 07:20 PM
Technically someone could win with 20%, but in the unlikely event that Paul did that you can be sure that the headlines would be all about a chaotic near-tie and how mixed up the field was after the inconclusive Iowa caucuses. And they'd actually be close to right.

Tax the Fed
12-14-2011, 07:25 PM
it is only about delegates in the caucus states like Iowa and Nevada -
the percentages mean absolutely nuttin'

bbartlog
12-14-2011, 07:33 PM
For Nevada and later caucus states, I would agree- but in Iowa, the percentages are a headline number that potentially have a huge influence on later voters. Much as we want the Iowa delegates we want the first place finish even more.

Liberty74
12-14-2011, 07:34 PM
We need at least 30% of the Republican vote. The Independents will put us over the top. ;)

BUSHLIED
12-14-2011, 07:48 PM
We need at least 30% of the Republican vote. The Independents will put us over the top. ;)

I don't believe we are going to get 30% of the GOP vote..more like 18-19%. We need a ton of indies and dems to push us over the top..I predict 26% for Paul.

Here is my prediction:

Paul 26%
Gingrich 22%
Romney 16%
Perry 14%
Bachmann 12%
Santorum:10%