[VIDEO] Morning Joe: "I think Ron Paul can win NH as well"

[StateofTrance]

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/45666869#45666869

Move to 1:20

[Adam West]

Link doesn't seem to be working.

[Adam West]

Worked the 2nd time.

[StateofTrance]

Works fine for me. Just double-checked.

[KingNothing]

It's game over if Paul wins Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll have the nomination in the bag.

By the 23rd, the GOP landscape will look completely different than it does today, though. A lot can change, and a lot will change. Things move very rapidly now. Paul has to keep his foot on the gas. He has to keep doing exactly what he's doing - he needs to cite his conservative bonafides, and needs to smile easily, and he needs to bash the budget deficit and tout Liberty.

I've no reason to doubt his competency in that regard.

[Muttley]

Joe "The revolution baby!!!" Haha!

[Cinderella]

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=ron+paul+funny+pictures&hl=en&gbv=2&biw=1366&bih=673&tbm=isch&tbnid=LIB076vGsjlAkM:&imgrefurl=http://www.youdopia.com/2010/05/28/this-is-why-ron-paul-is-awesome-the-best-political-endorsement-ever/&docid=rNF1tGTbfdbBaM&imgurl=http://www.youdopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/ron-paul-chewbacca-best-political-ever-funny-humor.jpg&w=500&h=335&ei=8tLoTvG0GoLx0gHRn-DYAw&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=966&vpy=155&dur=1772&hovh=184&hovw=274&tx=140&ty=80&sig=103088972487070329087&page=1&tbnh=152&tbnw=203&start=0&ndsp=18&ved=1t:429,r:10,s:0

[mwkaufman]

And it's definitely possible. Paul can win Iowa by a good margin and get a lot of momentum.

In 2004, the highest poll number Kerry got in the 18 polls in December and January was 26%, not surprisingly from the best pollster, the Des Moines Register's Selzer & Co. The highest poll number Edwards got, again not surprisingly from the best pollster, was 23%. The lowest number Gephardt got, again from the best pollster, was 18%. The only candidate the polls came within the margin of error on was Dean.

Caucus day came and here were the results:
38% Kerry
32% Edwards
18% Dean
11% Gephardt

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Paul and Bachmann overperformed like Kerry and Edwards, or if Gingrich faded like Gephardt, and Romney will probably be polled accurately.

[RonPaulCult]

These guys think Huntsman has a chance? Huntsman is in DEAD LAST in national polls. Give me a break.

[mwkaufman]

It's game over if Paul wins Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll have the nomination in the bag.

By the 23rd, the GOP landscape will look completely different than it does today, though. A lot can change, and a lot will change. Things move very rapidly now. Paul has to keep his foot on the gas. He has to keep doing exactly what he's doing - he needs to cite his conservative bonafides, and needs to smile easily, and he needs to bash the budget deficit and tout Liberty.

I've no reason to doubt his competency in that regard.

Paul doesn't have it locked up at this point. If the field thins and it comes down to Gingrich and Paul by South Carolina, Gingrich will win the nomination barring a huge scandal. Paul needs to shut Gingrich out of a win in South Carolina, he has a much better chance if the race comes down to Paul vs Romney.

[Joe3113]

MSM: "Iowa and New Hampshire now irrelevant"

[erowe1]

It's game over if Paul wins Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll have the nomination in the bag.

No it's not. Not even close. In fact, the odds would still be against it.

The only way he gets the nomination is by winning again and again all the way through the entire primary season and racking up an absolute majority of delegates before the convention. And even then, I'd still be worried that they'd have something up their sleeve.

We have to plan on this being a long fight. And no matter what state you live in, and no matter how late your primary is, you have to plan on it mattering.

[sailingaway]

meh, that was really McKinnon, Joe just agreed he could and also said everyone else could make a charge in Iowa immediately afterwards.

[Darthbrooklyn]

MSM: "Iowa and New Hampshire now irrelevant"


HAHAHAHAHAHAH.. I knew that was coming but not this soon... fkin MSM But if someone like Bachmann won Iowa the MSM would have a fkn Ticker Tape parade

[sailingaway]

No it's not. Not even close. In fact, the odds would still be against it.

The only way he gets the nomination is by winning again and again all the way through the entire primary season and racking up an absolute majority of delegates before the convention. And even then, I'd still be worried that they'd have something up their sleeve.

We have to plan on this being a long fight. And no matter what state you live in, and no matter how late your primary is, you have to plan on it mattering.If he wins Iowa AND NH, that is tremendous. It is just the start, but it is tremendous. I think one win and one second is tremendous as well, as that will still leave him, after Florida, as only one of a few with a real path to the presidency. I agree the only outright win for us comes with a Ron Paul presidency and that means an abslolute majority of delegates at convention. Anything else is just influence and we already know they won't bite the bullet when push comes to shove and real action needs to be taken. So it might be better than nothing, and we'd fight for as much as we could get, but we have to go all out every step of the way planning for an all out win.

[69360]

It's game over if Paul wins Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll have the nomination in the bag.


Not by a long shot. SC and Fl are going to be ugly and have more delegates up for grabs. Prepare for it.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

Every Paul supporter should be working towards being a delegate, and packing Tampa @ the Convention as much as humanly possible. Learn from 1964. It'll be the same atmosphere.

[V3n]

I was listening to this this morning, but didn't get the chance to see.. one of them went on to call Ron Paul "Mitt Romney's lifeline". WTH!

Ron Paul is RON PAUL'S LIFELINE!!

[Revolution9]

Paul doesn't have it locked up at this point. If the field thins and it comes down to Gingrich and Paul by South Carolina, Gingrich will win the nomination barring a huge scandal.

If the field thins there won't be any room for marshmallow man. And the grinch is a huge scandal.

Rev9

[erowe1]

If he wins Iowa AND NH, that is tremendous. It is just the start, but it is tremendous. I think one win and one second is tremendous as well, as that will still leave him, after Florida, as only one of a few with a real path to the presidency. I agree the only outright win for us comes with a Ron Paul presidency and that means an abslolute majority of delegates at convention. Anything else is just influence and we already know they won't bite the bullet when push comes to shove and real action needs to be taken. So it might be better than nothing, and we'd fight for as much as we could get, but we have to go all out every step of the way planning for an all out win.

I agree that it would be tremendous. It would put us about 4% of the way toward our goal, based on the number of delegates needed to win. After that, we would still have to win that same amount of delegates another 24 times or so.

[FA.Hayek]

why are they pushing Huntsman so hard?

[pauliticalfan]

Huntsman, seriously?!

[LeJimster]

These guys think Huntsman has a chance? Huntsman is in DEAD LAST in national polls. Give me a break.

Ron is only @ 12% nationally and I know and believe he can win. Huntsman is @ 10% in NH, so it's not impossible he could do well. I'm not sure he can win the nomination, but he could be a player especially if Mitt and Newt continue to implode.

[chudrockz]

Huntsman has as much chance of getting the Republican nomination as I do.

[da32130]

No it's not. Not even close. In fact, the odds would still be against it.

The only way he gets the nomination is by winning again and again all the way through the entire primary season and racking up an absolute majority of delegates before the convention. And even then, I'd still be worried that they'd have something up their sleeve.

We have to plan on this being a long fight. And no matter what state you live in, and no matter how late your primary is, you have to plan on it mattering.

Factually, based on intrade.com, a win in NH is less likely than him winning the nomination. So if he wins NH people are betting that the field will be too fractured to come up with a single strong competitor. That is why Paul would then be a steamroller through the rest of the process.

However, I agree that we need to stay active and push our advantage. Historically, that and everyone else giving up is why winning Iowa and NH = nomination.

[Epic]

Winning IA and NH won't wrap it up, because then a bunch of candidates would drop out, just leaving one other candidate for the establishment to rally around. I actually think Ron Paul MUST win IA and NH, because he needs the large springboard in Florida and South Carolina.

[blakjak]

It's game over if Paul wins Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll have the nomination in the bag.


Not quite. Paul can't win Florida or South Carolina - the next two major states. The nomination will still be up in the air - although it will give us much needed momentum if we take the first two states.

[parocks]

And it's definitely possible. Paul can win Iowa by a good margin and get a lot of momentum.

In 2004, the highest poll number Kerry got in the 18 polls in December and January was 26%, not surprisingly from the best pollster, the Des Moines Register's Selzer & Co. The highest poll number Edwards got, again not surprisingly from the best pollster, was 23%. The lowest number Gephardt got, again from the best pollster, was 18%. The only candidate the polls came within the margin of error on was Dean.

Caucus day came and here were the results:
38% Kerry
32% Edwards
18% Dean
11% Gephardt

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Paul and Bachmann overperformed like Kerry and Edwards, or if Gingrich faded like Gephardt, and Romney will probably be polled accurately.

Kerry had Michael Whouley. The GOTV wizard.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/16/opinion/main593698.shtml

"Of course, the real test of Whouley's powers isn't a Zogby poll. It will come on Monday, when he'll have to get Kerry's supporters to the caucuses. On the one hand, Whouley is a master of brute-force turnout tactics. "


In case you're wondering "brute-force turnout tactics", which is what wins, does include things like going to Durham and getting the students at UNH to register and get their absentees in, and does not include "super brochures" or waving signs.

[da32130]

Winning IA and NH won't wrap it up, because then a bunch of candidates would drop out, just leaving one other candidate for the establishment to rally around. I actually think Ron Paul MUST win IA and NH, because he needs the large springboard in Florida and South Carolina.

That may be your opinion. However, intrade.com is saying you are wrong. There is always some chance of losing, but after a NH win the odds of Paul winning go to 80-90%+.

Paul's grassroots and funding at that points would be surging. Romney, Perry, etc. fundraising and support would be weakened. SC is 11 days after NH. Florida is 10 days after SC. That is a lot of time for Paul to be the clear frontrunner and solidify his position.

Worst case, within a week after FL there are 4 caucus states where Paul can push his advantage. Then there are three weeks before another primary.

[mwkaufman]

That may be your opinion. However, intrade.com is saying you are wrong. There is always some chance of losing, but after a NH win the odds of Paul winning go to 80-90%+.

Paul's grassroots and funding at that points would be surging. Romney, Perry, etc. fundraising and support would be weakened. SC is 11 days after NH. Florida is 10 days after SC. That is a lot of time for Paul to be the clear frontrunner and solidify his position.

Worst case, within a week after FL there are 4 caucus states where Paul can push his advantage. Then there is three weeks before another primary.

Intrade.com is a prediction market. The predictions of the market are undoubtedly worth more on average than my personal opinion, but neither of us has a crystal ball. Taking their predictions as fact is the pretense of knowledge.

[limequat]

I believe that if RP wins IA and NH, he will win SC as well. FL, well lots of work to do there.

[da32130]

Intrade.com is a prediction market. The predictions of the market are undoubtedly worth more on average than my personal opinion, but neither of us has a crystal ball. Taking their predictions as fact is the pretense of knowledge.

I'm not taking it as a fact. However, the opinion of the market is knowledge. From it you can look how participants think the process will play out and inform your decisions.

IMO, the market catches things most people miss. So it makes a lot of sense to use that as the starting point for discussion. From there we can discuss what we think the market is missing.

[69360]

SC is the home of the MIC, they have a lot to lose, SC isn't happening.

[Steve-in-NY]

We each need to get 1 more person on board as well as concentrate on helping in the early states through donations and call from home etc.
Can we all get just one more person to support Paul today? This week? How many until Iowa? How many until Super Tuesday?
Ive got 10 new Paul supporters/voters so far. Im aiming for another 15 by Super Tuesday.

If only Rons "hard support" in Iowa alone could get just one more person on board, even if it took a week to do it, we are looking at literally 10s of thousands of new supporters.

Back to work folks!