Iowa Results: Prediction 12/12/11

[BUSHLIED]

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/12/13/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-iowa2/fivethirtyeight-iowa2-blog480.gif

reference: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/our-first-iowa-forecast-gingrich-leads-paul-gaining-race-still-wide-open/

[bluesc]

Newt is never going to win Iowa. Never.

[sailingaway]

Oh come on. There is no possibility of his share being down to 6%.

[Fermli]

Nate Silver is a moron. I hope these political prognosticators all get fired after this election.

[LibertyDreckman]

Oh come on. There is no possibility of his share being down to 6%.

But that is the point.....it is a model. Nobody is going to get their low....

[South Park Fan]

Nate Silver is a moron. I hope these political prognosticators all get fired after this election.

I wouldn't say he's not intelligent; it's just that he futilely tries to apply statistical methods to social science, which Mandelbrot and Taleb have pointed out the flaws in.

[iamse7en]

Newt is never going to win Iowa. Never.

You think our movement is more powerful than the conspiracy against it? I like it.

[bluesc]

You think our movement is more powerful than the conspiracy against it? I like it.

The message is.

My point is that Newt doesn't have any organization or any enthusiasm behind him. I secretly think Ron is absolutely guaranteed to win Iowa, but I don't say it, as we must ACT as if we are 10 points behind.

[LibertyDreckman]

If Newt slides more this week and next week, he may take that one million dollars Savage is offering :P

[South Park Fan]

If Newt slides more this week and next week, he may take that one million dollars Savage is offering :P

Not a chance. He's bound to make more than that off of his presidential campaign/book tour regardless of how low he polls from now on.

[Give me liberty]

That Baby face Newt isnt going to win i cant see why the GOP would like him.