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View Full Version : Insider Advantage Iowa Poll: Gingrich 27%, Paul 17%




mwkaufman
12-13-2011, 02:31 PM
Insider Advantage Iowa 12/12

27% Gingrich
17% Paul
13% Perry
12% Romney
10% Bachmann
7% Santorum
4% Huntsman

Source (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_Iowa_1213.pdf)

So why the big difference between this and the PPP poll? The PPP poll includes likely caucus goers that are not yet registered voters, and projects them to make up 41% of the field. Amongst them, Paul leads Gingrich 25% to 17%. Amongst registered voters, Gingrich leads Paul 26% to 18% in the PPP poll, very similar to the numbers in this Insider Advantage poll.

kylejack
12-13-2011, 02:37 PM
Wow, 41% will be not yet registered? That seems pretty optimistic, PPP...

Uriah
12-13-2011, 02:53 PM
Wow, 41% will be not yet registered? That seems pretty optimistic, PPP...

This happened with Obama. The Selzer Co., which does the Iowa Poll, predicted huge turnout with new voters for Obama and it happened. No one thought it was possible. The key is a strong organization and enthusiastic supporters.

Lavitz
12-13-2011, 03:05 PM
Romney at 12%? Really? Seems like an outlier, unless that debate really hurt him.

braane
12-13-2011, 03:11 PM
Romney at 12%? Really? Seems like an outlier, unless that debate really hurt him.

It did, surely, but 12% isn't likely. At least not today... maybe this time next week. People are beginning to perceive Romney less as the inevitable nominee. That is, in my belief, where a lot of his support has been. Bachmann and Perry on the climb is both not surprising and interesting at the same time. PPP's poll showed that Perry was the second most unfavorable candidate in the Iowa race. So he definitely has a ceiling. I never did see Bachmann's numbers, but she is destined to shoot herself in the foot on Thursday (which could be a negative or a positive). We do need these candidates to take from Gingrich, but at the same time... any kind of momentum could propel them back to the lead. So it's a fine line.

Canderson
12-13-2011, 03:14 PM
Romney at 12%? Really? Seems like an outlier, unless that debate really hurt him.

That would kill him in the media and give us a shot at New Hampshire were we to win Iowa