[PPP] Paul's favorability up 16 points in Iowa!

[kylejack]

Numbers aren't posted yet, but here's some awesome tweets about them.


ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
There are a lot of parallels between Paul's base of support in Iowa and what Obama did in 2008- young voters, independents, etc
12 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Paul's net favorability in Iowa is up 16 points compared to a week ago. Must have said something right in that debate
19 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Newt's net favorability in Iowa is down 19 points in the last week
29 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
We're going to get the Iowa numbers out this afternoon. Significant tightening between Gingrich and Paul in the last week
33 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Over the course of our Iowa field period Paul got stronger, Gingrich and Bachmann got weaker
55 minutes ago

[trey4sports]

booyah!

[z9000]

deleted

[sailingaway]

That's because he's him, and next to Gingrich, it really stands out.... :p

[fade]

This is WONDERFUL news!

[hueylong]

Looks like these results will reinforce the American Research Group poll showing Ging at 22% and RP @ 17%. Peaking at just the right time!

[kylejack]

WOW. It is like night and day how much better they are running this campaign compared to 2008. To wit, it's freaking brilliant to let the Serial Hypocrisy hit ad do the talking, and then have Ron Paul play friendly grandfather at the debates even when he is condemning Newt for his actions.

Ron Paul gets to smash Newt without losing any likability, in fact, he's gaining! Insane!

[jtbraine]

Im,nmmn

[braane]

Oh buddy... This is amazing news.

[Sola_Fide]

"significant tightening" between Paul and Gingrich?

Wowowowow

[fade]

Rasmussen on Fox News now. ( I know this isn't a rasmussen poll)

[Jovan Galtic]

Newt's net favorability in Iowa is down 19 points in the last week


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ2YJm03Oqc

[brendan.orourke]

Question, what exactly is favorability? Is that just what they call their polls of candidates? Or is this worded in a certain way?

[PastaRocket848]

YES! Just the right news at just the right time. We have a solid chance at this.

[airborne373]

Oh Newty, enjoy your consolation prize. Years of book signings and appearances on main stream media. Its a nice gig if you can get it.

[kylejack]

Question, what exactly is favorability? Is that just what they call their polls of candidates? Or is this worded in a certain way?
Whether or not they find the candidate likable. Net favorability is % who have a favorable opinion minus % who have unfavorable opinion. Either a bunch more people like Paul, a bunch fewer hate him, or both.

[low preference guy]

Question, what exactly is favorability? Is that just what they call their polls of candidates? Or is this worded in a certain way?

they ask you something like: do you have a favorable opinion of X? it's a good indicator of your potential. if you have low favorability, you have a low ceiling.

[ronpaulitician]

I have something in my eye. Both of them.

[brendan.orourke]

Ok, so it's not "If the caucus was held today, who would you vote for" then. Do you think that makes a favorability poll less important?

[CaptUSA]

Favorability is a precursor to real poll numbers. It is huge that Paul's are rising. If this keeps up, he will peak during the caucuses. We may have a landslide on our hands.

On a personal note, I'm hearing more favorability around here as well. Still not taking the plunge, but at least their becoming open to Paul.

[limequat]

Having...trouble...breathing.

[eduardo89]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Paul's net favorability in Iowa is up 16 points compared to a week ago. Must have said something right in that debate
19 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Newt's net favorability in Iowa is down 19 points in the last week
29 minutes ago

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
We're going to get the Iowa numbers out this afternoon. Significant tightening between Gingrich and Paul in the last week
33 minutes ago



Ron is really rising with his favorability ratings and newt is crashing. I wonder if this means that Ron's poll numbers shot up, Newts numbers crashed or a combination of both. Will be interesting to see.

I'm hoping it's like this:
Newt 20%
Paul 20%
Romney 16%

[brendan.orourke]

Favorability is a precursor to real poll numbers. It is huge that Paul's are rising. If this keeps up, he will peak during the caucuses. We may have a landslide on our hands.

On a personal note, I'm hearing more favorability around here as well. Still not taking the plunge, but at least their becoming open to Paul.That's what I've felt all along...I really think Paul could win in a landslide...wait did I just say that? Is this possibility? Yes it is. Ron Paul could win Iowa in a landslide!

[trey4sports]

We are on a roll. How soon until the numbers are posted?


Tonight IIRC

[limequat]

That's what I've felt all along...I really think Paul could win in a landslide...wait did I just say that? Is this possibility? Yes it is. Ron Paul could win Iowa in a landslide!


RANDSLIDE!

[InTradePro]

This is from PPP polling. Don't get to excited. It was only a few days ago when they showed Bachmann at 13%, around 4% above other polls. Bachmann hadn't gone up and she hasn't fell, it's noise in sampling.

http://gop2012polls.blogspot.com/

[justatrey]

I feel like I'm 8 years old again about to run downstairs on Christmas Morning :D

[trey4sports]

be ready for attacks. It's coming.

[kylejack]

Ok, so it's not "If the caucus was held today, who would you vote for" then. Do you think that makes a favorability poll less important?
It indicates your ceiling. People who hate your guts aren't going to vote for you, even if they find a problem with their chosen candidate. So increasing the favorability makes all those votes now potentially winnable, if we make the right arguments and use the right persuasion.

[mwkaufman]

PPP Iowa Net Favorability 12/3-12/5 12/11-12/13
Gingrich +31 +12
Santorum +23 ?
Bachmann +21 ?
Paul +14 +30
Romney +4 ?
Perry -2 ?
Huntsman -15 ?

Paul might lead in net favorability in PPP's Iowa poll from 12/11-12/13.

[sailingaway]

be ready for attacks. It's coming.

there are already hit websites out there. I think the big attack will come after Iowa if I am right that the establishment is split on Iowa, some wanting Gingrich but Romney's folks wanting Gingrich to be blunted. Ron is clearly in the best spot to do the blunting. If I am right, they will want him to do well or win in Iowa (if Romney can't) but not want him to have momentum to NH, so they will attack right after Iowa.

[Fr3shjive]

Rasmussen on Fox News now. ( I know this isn't a rasmussen poll)

Link?

[KingRobbStark]

Of course favorability is important! You're not going to vote for someone you don't like.

[sailingaway]

Link?

RAsmussen has Ron at 18% so they may have FINALLY included independents and or Dems who plan to caucus with GOP. It is getting close to when polls are rated.

[kylejack]

Dems can't vote in NH GOP primary. Indies can, or Dems who switched back to independent or GOP a couple months ago (deadline has passed).

[harikaried]

RANDSLIDE!RONSLAUGHT?

[parocks]

PPP Iowa Net Favorability 12/3-12/5 12/11-12/13
Gingrich +31 +12
Santorum +23 ?
Bachmann +21 ?
Paul +14 +30
Romney +4 ?
Perry -2 ?
Huntsman -15 ?

Paul might lead in net favorability in PPP's Iowa poll from 12/11-12/13.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1205925.pdf - these are the old numbers too.

[trey4sports]

there are already hit websites out there. I think the big attack will come after Iowa if I am right that the establishment is split on Iowa, some wanting Gingrich but Romney's folks wanting Gingrich to be blunted. Ron is clearly in the best spot to do the blunting. If I am right, they will want him to do well or win in Iowa (if Romney can't) but not want him to have momentum to NH, so they will attack right after Iowa.


yes, that is my thought on paper as well. I believe that as things get closer and closer and it is looking more and more like a Paul win is inevitable in Iowa then I believe the reality will sink in and attacks will come from all ends. I imagine Romney will see that Rons momentum is eroding his base in NH and figure best to nip it in the bud.

[Canderson]

If were too close, the Fox News Debate might be a feeding freenzie on ron

[kylejack]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1205925.pdf - these are the old numbers too.
12/5/2011

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable......................................... ............... 52%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 38%
Not sure .................................................. ........ 10%

Okay. So I wonder if the bump came more from Favorable climb or Unfavorable drop.

[eduardo89]

12/5/2011

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable......................................... ............... 52%
Unfavorable .................................................. .. 38%
Not sure .................................................. ........ 10%

Okay. So I wonder if the bump came more from Favorable climb or Unfavorable drop.

Wouldn't unfavorable have to drop in order for favorable to climb? There will always be about 8-15% saying not sure in these things.

[trey4sports]

If were too close, the Fox News Debate might be a feeding freenzie on ron

my thoughts. Here comes Iran, drugs, prostitution, and glee.

[kylejack]

Wouldn't unfavorable have to drop in order for favorable to climb? There will always be about 8-15% saying not sure in these things.
If there was no change to Not Sure, yes. But it's naturally going to decrease as we get close.

[parocks]

Last week -
Gingrich 27%
Paul 18%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 13%

[jFico89]

http://libertyhumor.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/2461877502_dd57877c8f3.jpg?w=1000&h=

[eduardo89]

Last week -
Gingrich 27%
Paul 18%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 13%

This week:
Gingrich 22%
Paul 20%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 9%
Perry 7%

Those are my guesses

[JohnGalt23g]

That's because he's him, and next to Gingrich, it really stands out.... :p

Once again:

Ron Paul = "Big Dog"

Newt Gingrich = "Whimpering Little Shih Tzu"

[Occam's Banana]

Paul's net favorability in Iowa is up 16 points compared to a week ago.


Newt's net favorability in Iowa is down 19 points in the last week


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f86ok3ug1S8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f86ok3ug1S8

[sailingaway]

http://libertyhumor.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/2461877502_dd57877c8f3.jpg?w=1000&h=

participation is effing it up?

[Indiana4Paul]

my thoughts. Here comes Iran, drugs, prostitution, and glee.

I don't think the newsletters will be a big deal in the GOP. I think other attacks will be much more prominent.

Paul needs to be ready to spin everything towards Jobs/Economy.

[eduardo89]

participation is effing it up?

If ron wins, yes. (according to msm)

[specsaregood]

I don't think the newsletters will be a big deal in the GOP. I think other attacks will be much more prominent.

Romney belongs to a church that didn't let blacks take part in the priesthood or temple activities until 1978 and taught that dark skin was a curse from God. He certainly doesn't want to bring the topic of race up for discussion.

[Forty Twice]

Who determines audience at Fox News Debate? Will there be Paul supporters in the audience?

[low preference guy]

Romney belongs to a church that didn't let blacks take part in the priesthood or temple activities until 1978 and taught that dark skin was a curse from God.

the msm won't mention it and cover his ass.

[eduardo89]

This week:
Gingrich 22%
Paul 20%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 9%
Perry 7%

Those are my guesses

I was pretty close! Ron's doing even better thani thought :)


Iowa:
Gingrich 22,
Paul 21,
Romney 16,
Bachmann 11,
Perry 9,
Santorum 8,
Huntsman 5,
Johnson 1:

tinyurl.com/77gbfdb

[djruden]

Who determines audience at Fox News Debate? Will there be Paul supporters in the audience?

Tickets were sold thru the Iowa GOP website as they were for all debates in Iowa this year. Tho a number of tickets might have been allocated to each campaign and maybe some for Fox News to give to various outlets. I've been to 2 Iowa debates (ames and des moines) and most attendees are members of Iowa GOP (as far as I could tell)

[No Free Beer]

Ron's performance in the debate was key. He showed a lighter side of himself and the voters in Iowa respond to that.

[CaptUSA]

Do you realize that the more they may step up their attacks, the more attention that will give to Paul? That means the more people will take a look at him. And since his record is pristine, more people will like him.

Oh, how I hope they try to pick a fight in the debate!!! That will make this moneybomb so huge! That will guarantee we win Iowa! The beautiful thing about Ron Paul is that the more they attack him, the more support he will gain! He's like political Jui Jitsu!

[eduardo89]

Among likely voters under the age of 45, Paul leads Gingrich 30-16: tinyurl.com/77gbfdb

[kylejack]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
In last week Paul's net favorability has gone from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). Making new friends: http://tinyurl.com/77gbfdb

[tremendoustie]

I was pretty close! Ron's doing even better thani thought :)


Iowa:
Gingrich 22,
Paul 21,
Romney 16,
Bachmann 11,
Perry 9,
Santorum 8,
Huntsman 5,
Johnson 1:

tinyurl.com/77gbfdb

#winning :)

[kylejack]

So +9 favorable, -7 unfavorable. They like him, they really like him!

[freejack]

I was pretty close! Ron's doing even better thani thought :)


Iowa:
Gingrich 22,
Paul 21,
Romney 16,
Bachmann 11,
Perry 9,
Santorum 8,
Huntsman 5,
Johnson 1:

tinyurl.com/77gbfdb

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[specsaregood]

Uhoh, it looks like Paul broke through the 20% ceiling! Too bad for that pesky 25% ceiling....

[Diurdi]

PPP tweet:

Among Iowa voters whose minds are totally made up: Paul 29, Gingrich 21, Romney 18, Bachmann 11

[Eryxis]

Just saw the tweets... these are exciting times.

[Canderson]

i can't wait for this to go up on RCP

[ronpaulfollower999]

Uhoh, it looks like Paul broke through the 20% ceiling! Too bad for that pesky 25% ceiling....

How does Ron's head not hurt busting through all these ceilings? :D

[kylejack]

PPP tweet:

Among Iowa voters whose minds are totally made up: Paul 29, Gingrich 21, Romney 18, Bachmann 11
Very exciting. Once we peel them off they go on LOCKDOWN, money in the bank.

[low preference guy]

establishment heads are exploding right now! get ready for temper tantrums from radio hosts and desperate attacks.

[IndianaPolitico]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtl2ZuJpG9M&feature=player_embedded#!

[jmdrake]

Awesome news!

[specsaregood]

establishment heads are exploding right now! get ready for temper tantrums from radio hosts and desperate attacks.

Just wait though, when the real knives come out they will come from our "allies". Mark my words it'll happen.

[CaptUSA]

Let us be careful.

Each campaign that has gone through this has thought it was because they were the greatest. Let us not get overconfident and make this mistake. The biggest take-away here should be the favorability ratings! Those are nice. It means we have an opening.

But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. We have an opening. We are not gaining because of real support, but merely because people are finding out about Gingrich. This support will go away fast if we don't grab onto it.

[Revolution9]

Minions are double checking their asses right now as they have some serious decisions to make.

Rev9

[low preference guy]

Just wait though, when the real knives come out they will come from our "allies". Mark my words it'll happen.

What do you have in mind? Cato and Reason?

[icon124]

that ABC debate was the best debate by far...Ron owned everyone and said exactly what he needed to say...while at the same time knocking his fake competition down a few notices.

And to think ABC told me after the debate that Newt was the clear winner. Why don't I listen more often?

[parocks]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1213925.pdf
PPP Iowa

18-29

Ron Paul 42%
Bachmann 13%
Romney 13%
Gingrich 6
Santorum 6
Huntsman 6

paul favorability
18-29
77 favorable
16 un
6 don't know

30-45
70 favorable
24 un
6 don't know

[LibertyDreckman]

The favorability numbers are just as a big of a deal as the poll numbers themselves. This means we can still attract more voters, get more people on board!