New ARG Poll- Iowa- Gingrich 22% Paul 17%

[pulp8721]

ARG Poll- 12/8-12/11 (parenthesis represent change from last poll in November)

Newt Gingrich 22%(-5)
Ron Paul 17% (+1)
Mitt Romney 17% (-3)
Rick Perry 13% (+8)
Michele Bachmann 7% (+1)
Rick Santorum 7% (+1)
Jon Huntsman 5% (+2)
hxxp://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

Within five points of Gingrich!

[zerosdontcount]

The gingrich fall begins :) Paul FTW!

[sailingaway]

I'm glad to see this.

[Darthbrooklyn]

:D

[TwoJ]

ARG Poll- 12/8-12/11 (parenthesis represent change from last poll in November)

Newt Gingrich 22%(-5)
Ron Paul 17% (+1)
Mitt Romney 17% (-3)
Rick Perry 13% (+8)
Michele Bachmann 7% (+1)
Rick Santorum 7% (+1)
Jon Huntsman 5% (+2)
hxxp://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

Within five points of Gingrich!

???

[FSP-Rebel]

decent

[thehighwaymanq]

I'm glad to see this.

Dec 8-11

[bluesc]

???

He has spent more in Iowa in the last two weeks than we spent nationally during the entire campaign.

[kill the banks]

winner good news

[sailingaway]

Dec 8-11

thanks. I saw that after I posted about the dates. I have Diane Sawyer's 'pharmacy' problem at the moment, for a cold.

[kylejack]

???
It's like playing Wack-A-Mole. Remember voters, Perry's a disaster!

[Unknown.User]

..

[bobbyw24]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=337009

[bobbyw24]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/198735-poll-gingrich-loses-ground-in-tight-iowa-race

[specsaregood]

???


Grrr, the gays! gotta get em all

[LeJimster]

That Perry bump is from his gay bashing and christian pandering in that ridiculous ad he was running.

[TwoJ]

Is this poll only registered republicans?

[Bruno]

"The fall of Newt!" :D

[Todd]

It says likely "Republican" caucus goers. If that's the case this doesn't figure into ANY of the independants that are overwhelmingly in our camp. :)

Can't get complacent here though......Must keep going like there's no tomorrow.

[cdc482]

Thank God. The UI poll sucked.
This is great! We've closed the gap from 10% to 5%. If we keep working hard until Jan 3rd we can win.

[Naraku]

That Perry bump is from his ridiculous ad he was running.

Perry's hope is obviously that he will win or get a strong place in Iowa and then everyone in New Hampshire will just forget all about that ad.

[cdc482]

Wish we'd have picked up some more voters though. Seems like most of Gingrich's loss went to Perry, who copies most of what Ron says anyway.

We need to win voters. We can't win with just 17-19%

[thehighwaymanq]

Because our Independent and potential Democrat votes, any poll with us in a 4-7% disadvantage is still a positive in my eyes. We will win cause the votes that none of these polls are looking for.

[cdc482]

This is pre-debate. Can't wait for the post-debate poll to come out.

[NY-Dano]

Paul took 39% of Independents!

[JakeH]

Best news I've heard all day.

[cdc482]

Paul took 39% of Independents!

Superbrochure BOMB! We've got until 6:50pm tonight!

[WD-NY]

Paul took 39% of Independents!

Who are the other 61% voting for?

[pauliticalfan]

Good news.

[NY-Dano]

hmmm... Paul took only 16% of people who's likelihood of caucusing was 'definite' but 32% of those who are 'probable'.

[Luieburger]

Encouraging :D

[Darthbrooklyn]

Paul took 39% of Independents!

I was just about to write the same thing..... HUGE HUGE HUGE... Oh and no polls anywhere asking dems if theyre going to switch parties to vote for a GOP candidate.. thats the secret weapon..

[sailingaway]

Wish we'd have picked up some more voters though. Seems like most of Gingrich's loss went to Perry, who copies most of what Ron says anyway.

We need to win voters. We can't win with just 17-19%

those were establishment voters, not Ron voters.

As to Perry's ad, he doesn't plan on winning New Hampshire, he plans on decent showing in IA and to go for South Carolina.

[bluesc]

Superbrochure BOMB! We've got until 6:50pm tonight!

And then I'm hoping they open up NH. NH must NOT be ignored. If we win both, the establishment will be packing their bags ready to fly to Argentina.

[trey4sports]

see.

Everyone was goin' apeshit over Newt and the campaign has been doin' the right thing. Stayin' calm, cool, and methodical. We need to worry about raising money and phoning from home. do it yo!

[Martin Silenus]

Margin of Error +/- 4 points
39% of Independents
32% of those probably to caucus

Very good, but we need to move more people from the 'probably' to the 'definite' column, get more independents to the caucuses, and get Gingrich within the margin of error.

[Naraku]

those were establishment voters, not Ron voters.

As to Perry's ad, he doesn't plan on winning New Hampshire, he plans on decent showing in IA and to go for South Carolina.

If Perry doesn't win one of the first two states he will probably not be winning anything. He will quickly fade off into the distance.

[Todd]

see.

Everyone was goin' apeshit over Newt and the campaign has been doin' the right thing. Stayin' calm, cool, and methodical. We need to worry about raising money and phoning from home. do it yo!

QFT...

[NY-Dano]

Who are the other 61% voting for?


Republicans (84%) Independents (16%)

Bachmann 7% 8%
Gingrich 23% 15%
Huntsman 3% 13%
Paul 13% 39%
Perry 14% 7%
Romney 19% 8%
Santorum 8% -
Undecided 12% 10%

[specsaregood]

And then I'm hoping they open up NH. NH must NOT be ignored. If we win both, the establishment will be packing their bags ready to fly to Argentina.

They'll double down on SC and FL before they pack a single piece of luggage.

[samsung1]

I like the numbers but Perry +8? I don't care how much gay bashing he has done it just doesn't make sense after the gaffe filled weeks he's had this month

[Diurdi]

What's this Bullshit about Michelle Bachman being tied with Romney and Paul in the PPP poll?

Even Perry outperforms her here.

[Karsten]

You guys should stop worrying and look at the big picture. Who cares if Perry or Bachmann are creaping up in the polls. If we were all polling at around the same amount, like this poll suggests, it goes to turnout and who can motivate people to show up. That's Ron Paul and only Ron Paul. What we DON'T want to see, is someone like Gingrich WAS, which was way out in the lead. If we're THIS CLOSE to first on Jan 3, we win on turnout.

[cdc482]

Ya, I'm definitely glad Gingirch is down, and the field is more spread out BUT we need to pick up voters!

[Unknown.User]

..

[trey4sports]

You guys should stop worrying and look at the big picture. Who cares if Perry or Bachmann are creaping up in the polls. If we were all polling at around the same amount, like this poll suggests, it goes to turnout and who can motivate people to show up. That's Ron Paul and only Ron Paul. What we DON'T want to see, is someone like Gingrich WAS, which was way out in the lead. If we're THIS CLOSE to first on Jan 3, we win on turnout.


thank you! This is precisely correct. Worry about what we can control and do the best you can.

[Darthbrooklyn]

We must deny Newt 1 and 2 in Iowa and NH, then he will drop.

+1

[Crotale]

Donate, canvass, phone from home, promote the moneybomb, promote the itunes bomb, sign up on RonPaulCountry.com etc.

Let's do this :D

[Karsten]

If Gingrich, Paul, Perry, and Bachmann all go in on Jan 3rd tied at around 20 percent, we win easily. It goes into turnout and there's no stopping us. All we have to do is prevent anyone else from getting into a big lead.

[parocks]

hmmm... Paul took only 16% of people who's likelihood of caucusing was 'definite' but 32% of those who are 'probable'.

We believe that RP supporters will crawl a mile over broken glass to vote for Ron Paul.

This poll seems to indicate this is not the case.

[wgadget]

WOW, this is great news!

[pauladin]

https://www.google.com/search?gcx=w&q=cheetah+gazelle&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=50XmTvOiFuWWiAK2hOyrBg&biw=1280&bih=859&sei=6UXmTveKKMPViALN8JDOBg

[IDefendThePlatform]

Republicans (84%) Independents (16%)

Bachmann 7% 8%
Gingrich 23% 15%
Huntsman 3% 13%
Paul 13% 39%
Perry 14% 7%
Romney 19% 8%
Santorum 8% -
Undecided 12% 10%

Wow. We've really got to keep reaching out to those independents. That's fantastic.

[Karsten]

We believe that RP supporters will crawl a mile over broken glass to vote for Ron Paul.

This poll seems to indicate this is not the case.
It's an outlier in that regard. Every other poll and just anecdotal evidence (straw polls, rallies, grassroots activity in general) indicates we're the most motivated to show up.

[mwkaufman]

First sign of Newt starting to decline in Iowa. ARG sees Perry at his highest since September, and with PPP seeing Bachmann at her highest since September, we could actually be in for a very competitive five way race in Iowa.

Certainly I like Paul's chances in such a race. Winning Independents 39% to 15% over Gingrich is great stuff. Best case scenario is to finish like this:

28% Paul
18% Romney
17% Bachmann
15% Perry
14% Gingrich
7% Santorum
1% Huntsman

The reason for this is Bachmann and Perry have absolutely no traction in New Hampshire, while Newt and Huntsman can actually attract voters. There will be two stories off such a finish, a Paul surge and a Gingrich fade. This is what Paul needs to do to put a lot of ground in between him and Newt in NH.

[JakeH]

So, uh, guys?

http://www.teaparty11.com/
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/login.php?return_url=%2Fv%2F
https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/

[parocks]

It's an outlier in that regard. Every other poll and just anecdotal evidence (straw polls, rallies, grassroots activity in general) indicates we're the most motivated to show up.

More complicated than that. The anecdotal evidence that you site points to a core of people who are highly motivated. That highly motivated core isn't 15-20%.

[trey4sports]

First sign of Newt starting to decline in Iowa. ARG sees Perry at his highest since September, and with PPP seeing Bachmann at her highest since September, we could actually be in for a very competitive five way race in Iowa.

Certainly I like Paul's chances in such a race. Winning Independents 39% to 15% over Gingrich is great stuff. Best case scenario is to finish like this:

28% Paul
18% Romney
17% Bachmann
15% Perry
14% Gingrich
7% Santorum
1% Huntsman

The reason for this is Bachmann and Perry have absolutely no traction in New Hampshire, while Newt and Huntsman can actually attract voters. There will be two stories off such a finish, a Paul surge and a Gingrich fade. This is what Paul needs to do to put a lot of ground in between him and Newt in NH.


No way. best case scenario is Mitt getting 4th or 5th so he loses a ton of soft support going into NH.

[Karsten]

12% still undecided. We still need to hit these people hard.

[Havax]

When is a new poll going to come out with Paul vs. Obama in a nationwide matchup? They haven't done one in a very long time and I think they don't want more proof out there that Ron is one of the strongest candidates that would go up against Obama.

[trey4sports]

More complicated than that. The anecdotal evidence that you site points to a core of people who are highly motivated. That highly motivated core isn't 15-20%.


I agree. 6% or so may be full-on hardcore supporters but the other 11% varies. The key will be our GOTV operation.

[mwkaufman]

No way. best case scenario is Mitt getting 4th or 5th so he loses a ton of soft support going into NH.

I think Romney being the alternative is the easiest path for Paul to win the nomination outright. I think Paul can get enough delegates to win before the convention, but only if he can gather the anti-Romney support that has elevated Perry, Cain, and Gingrich in the polls nationally. If Romney's campaign falls apart, it sucks for Romney, but it isn't good for Paul.

[Karsten]

The only thing that might be a little concerning is that while Gingrich has fallen, Ron Paul is steady and others has risen. So, is seems like none of his support will go to us, even though we (through serial hypocracy, etc) might be the reason he is falling.

Nevertheless, if we're within 5% from first on Jan 3, we win on turnout. No question in my mind about that.

[SilentBull]

I think Romney being the alternative is the easiest path for Paul to win the nomination outright. I think Paul can get enough delegates to win before the convention, but only if he can gather the anti-Romney support that has elevated Perry, Cain, and Gingrich in the polls nationally. If Romney's campaign falls apart, it sucks for Romney, but it isn't good for Paul.

I agree with this. Romney doesn't scare me. What scares me is there being another alternative to Romney that's not Ron Paul. We need Gingrich to do worse than expected in Iowa, and we need Romney to be in 2nd place.

[Indiana4Paul]

If Perry doesn't win one of the first two states he will probably not be winning anything. He will quickly fade off into the distance.

Disagree. I think candidates are going to stick around longer this time than the conventional wisdom suggests. I think there are two things at play here:
1. Proportionate delegate states until April.
2. Candidates are going to stick around and wait for Newt to self-immolate.

I think we'll see Santorum and Huntsman leave after IA and NH, respectively, barring a major upsets. I see Bachmann departing after until Florida unless she pulls off a major upset along the way. I think Perry will stick around until after Super Tuesday, he has $$ and Texas looms on Super Tuesday. Romney has $$ and a 4yr head start organizationally, he has to be looking at the calendar and think that if he can hang around until April 24th he'll have a chance to turn things around.

[tremendoustie]

This is good news, but I'm really surprised to see the perry bump.

[seeker4sho]

Ron Paul could knock out all of the establishment neocons if he would go on the offensive by using their statements againt them. I get so damned frustrated trying to contact the campaign headquarters and not getting any response. I realize they are busy but they could at least acknowledge the emails. My last attempt at contacting them I pointed out the fact that Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have both made it crystal clear that they will attack Iran if they are elected. They should be made to explain how they plan to pay for another war. They should be made to explain how the world will react toward the US after the attack when Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz shutting off the world's energy supply. They should be made to explain how it would affect the US economy. They should have to explain why they would start another war when the American people do not want another war.

[RonPaul101.com]

Perry ads of stupidity and hatred are winning over a tiny portion of the electorate. That fact paired with Santorum at 7% will make me sleep with one eye open for now on...

[Canderson]

I think candidates are going to stick around longer this time than the conventional wisdom suggests.

Absolutely true, but the key is to make sure Bachmann is out by the time the Minnesota Caucus rolls around and that perry is out by the Texas primary

but the key is to WIN IOWA

[cucucachu0000]

perry jumping 8 points is kinda scary. That's the last thing we need is perry coming back cuz the media keeps calling his campaign "surging".

[tremendoustie]

perry jumping 8 points is kinda scary. That's the last thing we need is perry coming back cuz the media keeps calling his campaign "surging".

It's fine with me. He'll steal votes from newt, and Perry is not ultimately a viable candidate. If he tried to run against Obama, it'd be a bloodbath.

[Indiana4Paul]

Absolutely true, but the key is to make sure Bachmann is out by the time the Minnesota Caucus rolls around and that perry is out by the Texas primary

but the key is to WIN IOWA

I don't think Bachmann will want to stay in the race in Minnesota as she'll risk losing the state in an embarrassing fashion and hurting her long-term political power there.

Perry has much less to lose since he'll be Governor until 2014 anyway.

[ShaneEnochs]

???

He's spending a bunch of money in Iowa, plus the last debate helped because he didn't seem stoned out of his mind.

[abstrusezincate]

I agree with the posters who say divided support amongst the Republican caucus is good for Paul. The more ways this divides, the longer it remains so, the more the enthusiasm gap will matter.

[Canderson]

They need to put this up on Real Clear Politics, they put that insane University of Iowa poll up and now we're way down.

[sailingaway]

It's fine with me. He'll steal votes from newt, and Perry is not ultimately a viable candidate. If he tried to run against Obama, it'd be a bloodbath.

If Gingrich is a 'viable candidate' enough to pull from Ron at the time of key state votes, anyone can be, with enough media pumping. But I tend to think those who went to Perry were establishment sorts. So, fine. So long as he doesn't get higher :p

[JohnGalt23g]

I agree. 6% or so may be full-on hardcore supporters but the other 11% varies. The key will be our GOTV operation.

GOTV is everything in Iowa. It is the difference between victory and defeat.

[Darthbrooklyn]

Why isnt it up on RCP?

[69360]

Wow this is encouraging. Almost within the margin of the leader with 3 weeks to go. Why the big difference from the UI poll? I haven't looked over the crosstabs yet.

[Muwahid]

I may be overly optimistic but looks like Iowa is set for a Ron Paul win (or upset :rolleyes:), because fanatical Paul supporters will probably encourage more apolitical people to get involved, and Paul supporters aren't exactly the targetted demographic for these polls, many of his voters probably switched party affiliation or joined the republican party fairly recently. So these numbers are extraordinarily encouraging for Paul.

And I think the same process applies for all polls, he probably stands to do a lot better than what the polls indicate for these few reasons.

[Michigan11]

This is very encouraging, it's almost perfect timing, with about 3 weeks remaining, the moneybomb on the 16th coming up with RP on Leno, and the best part is we are rising it appears in the national polls, while Newt looks to be on his way down, while Romney isn't going anywhere..

I hope and give and do! I love it!

[MRoCkEd]

oh my my

[Dianne]

Glad to see some peeps waking up.

[Athan]

thanks. I saw that after I posted about the dates. I have Diane Sawyer's 'pharmacy' problem at the moment, for a cold.
I think Diane's real "pharmacy problem" is she is a damned fluffer for TPTB and has too much in her throat.

[seapilot]

Wow. We've really got to keep reaching out to those independents. That's fantastic.

The phone from home list to Iowa there are still a lot of independents to contact. I found one a few days ago that is going to vote for RP.

[futfut]

Huntsman and Perry should tag team on Romney. Paul and Backmann teaming up against Gingrich.
And Iowa is ours.

[anaconda]

Me likey this.

[Son of Detroit]

Within 5% baby!

http://i54.tinypic.com/53teo8.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/339tuee.gif

http://maxcdn.fooyoh.com/files/attach/images/1145/205/562/004/Jump-all-night-long-baby1.gif

[anaconda]

Can't help but notice these numbers only add up to 86%. Is the other 14% undecided?

[Canderson]

do they not put ARG on Real Clear Politics??

[Esoteric]

a Perry bump would be one of the best things that could happen to us. Look at where his support is coming from.

[69360]

do they not put ARG on Real Clear Politics??

Give it some time. RCP might be waiting for crosstabs or something.

[Canderson]

I didn't see ARG in the list of previous polls including

[LibertyEagle]

So, uh, guys?

http://www.teaparty11.com/
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/login.php?return_url=%2Fv%2F
https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/

Word.

This is how we win, people. :)

[anaconda]

a Perry bump would be one of the best things that could happen to us. Look at where his support is coming from.

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Perry bouncing back to being competitive. He's gone into "likeable" mode and could resurrect. Weirder things have happened.

[69360]

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Perry bouncing back to being competitive. He's gone into "likeable" mode and could resurrect. Weirder things have happened.

He's not high as a kite on pain pills anymore so he's a bit more coherent. Oops was a rough seas, the anti-gay ad sunk him.

[jkob]

This is good. Gingrich is starting to sink and Romney isn't picking up his voters. If we can get Ron to 24-25%, I think we have a good shot at winning this thing.

[Agorism]

bump. This poll is better!

[oceankyle]

So the top things we can do to help:

1) Phone from home
2) Spread Ron Paul with social media
3) Donate
4) Get friends to register so they can vote in the primary?

What else?? I'm not so smooth on the phone. Helping where I can on 2, 3, 4.

[Agorism]

ARG IA Caucus poll

Gingrich——22 (-5)
Romney——17 (+1)
Paul———–17 (-3)
Perry———-13 (+8)


Perry is oddly strong though.

[TheDrakeMan]

ARG IA Caucus poll

Gingrich——22 (-5)
Romney——17 (+1)
Paul———–17 (-3)
Perry———-13 (+8)


Perry is oddly strong though.

Where did you get this from?

[Adam West]

perry jumping 8 points is kinda scary. That's the last thing we need is perry coming back cuz the media keeps calling his campaign "surging".

Perry is stripping votes from Newt-Romney. This helps us. It is the "Perfect Storm."

[Liberty74]

How is the heck is Paul stagnate and Perry gaining plus 8?

[trey4sports]

ARG IA Caucus poll

Gingrich——22 (-5)
Romney——17 (+1)
Paul———–17 (-3)
Perry———-13 (+8)


Perry is oddly strong though.

this is incorrect.

Paul is up 1, not down 3.

http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/11/arg-poll-gingrich-on-top-of-gop-romney.html

[Adam West]

Within 5% baby!

http://i54.tinypic.com/53teo8.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/339tuee.gif

http://maxcdn.fooyoh.com/files/attach/images/1145/205/562/004/Jump-all-night-long-baby1.gif

Wow! I can't stop watching that woman jumping...

The look on that blokes face is priceless! lol

[Liberty74]

Wow. We've really got to keep reaching out to those independents. That's fantastic.

We have the independents. There aren't enough more of them to really help us. We need to reach 20% of the Republican voters and IT'S IN THE BAG FOR PAUL.

[Polskash]

I'm telling you guys...Perry is going to replace Gingrich...it's probably been planned this way all along. He went to Bilderberg... hope I'm wrong.

[69360]

I'm telling you guys...Perry is going to replace Gingrich...it's probably been planned this way all along. He went to Bilderberg... hope I'm wrong.

Cain is a bilderberger too. That didn't work out so well.

Oopsies, I hate gays ads will never win the presidency.

[James Madison]

But they will win GOP primaries.

[Sola_Fide]

Wow

[Polskash]

Cain is a bilderberger too. That didn't work out so well.

Oopsies, I hate gays ads will never win the presidency.

Dude...his candidacy was a joke from the start and went down in such a scripted manner. His whole purpose was to serve as a distraction and muddy the waters.

[John of Des Moines]

I'm telling you guys...Perry is going to replace Gingrich...it's probably been planned this way all along. He went to Bilderberg... hope I'm wrong.

I'll bet you $10,000 that the Bilderbergs' have more then one pony in the race.

[HarryBrowneLives]

We must deny Newt 1 and 2 in Iowa and NH, then he will drop.

Absolutely. Politics can and will turn on a dime at any time. Then the story will be all about why the Grinch SUCKS and can't win. He's flat broke or close and is DOA after that.

[HarryBrowneLives]

Perry is stripping votes from Newt-Romney. This helps us. It is the "Perfect Storm."

He is spending his wad in Iowa as a last gasp effort too which should help us more if he takes more from Mitt Gingrich.

[HarryBrowneLives]

The only thing that might be a little concerning is that while Gingrich has fallen, Ron Paul is steady and others has risen. So, is seems like none of his support will go to us, even though we (through serial hypocracy, etc) might be the reason he is falling.

Nevertheless, if we're within 5% from first on Jan 3, we win on turnout. No question in my mind about that.

+1776 ... That's my senario ... Perry spends his wad of cash in Iowa and gains, Ron's (and maybe Mitt's) money on negative ads against Grinch takes him down a notch. Grinch can't defend himself or GOTV properly cause he has little fundage, Everybody (Mitt, Grinch, Ron, Perry) poll within 5% of each other and we win the day on turnout for first and carry Big MO to NH. All we need is one more good debate gaffe free and it's ON!

[gerryb]

It's an outlier in that regard. Every other poll and just anecdotal evidence (straw polls, rallies, grassroots activity in general) indicates we're the most motivated to show up.

All of those things are very small samples.

If the people who turned out to rallies actually became precinct captains and phoned from home -- our poll numbers would reflect that. For instance, 3,000 people went to the campaign office opening in Minnesota. What else have those 3,000 people done? That should be enough to organize and knock on every registered R's door in the state..

The truth is we have more numbers, and more activism, but not enough to be in a winning position yet.

This is why all eyes are on Iowa -- it allows us to concentrate national activism into one state via phone from home

[beardedlinen]

Is it possible that a ton a Cain's support went to Perry (aside from his latest Iowa ads)? :confused:

Also, is RCP still vetting this poll or something? It isn't up yet.

[Agorism]

Not on RCP yet

[Canderson]

Did RCP put the last ARG poll up?

[bbartlog]

Perry gobbled up some of Newt's votes. Fits with the crosstab data from older polls. You're looking at a chunk of voters who are easily influenced by TV and are mostly older. Talking heads suggested Newt was the only one who could win it, they chose Newt. Bunch of negative ads were run against him and they saw some other ads about that nice man Perry, now they're in the Perry camp. I'm not sure how many of these people we can reach - the 'Paul can't win' propaganda plays well with them, I'm sure - but having them lost to Newt is all to the good.

[akalucas]

its about perfect time for Paul to come out with positive ads and talk about the issues he stands for.

[Joey Wahoo]

It is disappointing to see Perry gaining so much, presumably because of his shameful ad. But if he keeps drawing support from Gingrich, that could help move us into first place.

[ross11988]

Cain is a bilderberger too. That didn't work out so well.

Oopsies, I hate gays ads will never win the presidency.

Source? Ive only heard rumors of Cain going to Bilderberg

[Barrex]

If polls are dont by professionals they are acurate. What is margin of error for this poll? It is easy to get carried away but that thing " reality kicks in" could be dangerous. He is doing well but nothing is decided yet.

[Paulitics 2011]

its about perfect time for Paul to come out with positive ads and talk about the issues he stands for.

^^^^^

[american.swan]

Disagree. I think candidates are going to stick around longer this time than the conventional wisdom suggests. I think there are two things at play here:
1. Proportionate delegate states until April.
2. Candidates are going to stick around and wait for Newt to self-immolate.

I think we'll see Santorum and Huntsman leave after IA and NH, respectively, barring a major upsets. I see Bachmann departing after until Florida unless she pulls off a major upset along the way. I think Perry will stick around until after Super Tuesday, he has $$ and Texas looms on Super Tuesday. Romney has $$ and a 4yr head start organizationally, he has to be looking at the calendar and think that if he can hang around until April 24th he'll have a chance to turn things around.

We need to push THIS!! Because of proportional VOTING YOU CAN'T WASTE YOUR VOTE!!

[Tinnuhana]

Perry's picking up Gingrich's losses?

[69360]

Source? Ive only heard rumors of Cain going to Bilderberg

2009 it's been reported all over.

[ross11988]

2009 it's been reported all over.


Not seeing him on the list
http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2009-attendee-list/

[mstrmac1]

has anyone noticed how Real clear politics isnt using this poll in their numbers??

[69360]

Not seeing him on the list
http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2009-attendee-list/

Google it you'll get pages of hits. Who cares anyway, he quit.

[69360]

has anyone noticed how Real clear politics isnt using this poll in their numbers??

Yeah, there is probably a reason. Like the crosstabs aren't out or something. RCP has standards to meet for their average.

[Oddone]

Yeah, there is probably a reason. Like the crosstabs aren't out or something. RCP has standards to meet for their average.

Their standards are very low then if you look at the Uni. of Iowa Crosstabs, number polled and error %.

[dfalken]

I like the numbers but Perry +8? I don't care how much gay bashing he has done it just doesn't make sense after the gaffe filled weeks he's had this month

The average American's mind is gaffe filled, don't underestimate the monkeys they can vote for.

[kylejack]

I think RCP doesn't like ARG polls. As I recall, RCP wrote a piece on the questionable numbers when ARG had Hillary +15 in Iowa around Christmas time.

[parocks]

Not seeing him on the list
http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2009-attendee-list/

I hadn't heard anything about Cain going to Bilderberg. Only Perry.

[tsetsefly]

its about perfect time for Paul to come out with positive ads and talk about the issues he stands for.

THis!!!!!!

[Agorism]

still not on rcp

[kylejack]

still not on rcp
And probably never will be. They're not using any other previous ARG polls. Look like they take issue with ARG, who got some things very wrong last cycle.