Anyone else watching the Iowa Electronic Markets? (Paul majorly rising)

[PauliticsPolitics]

The Iowa Electronics Market is kinda like intrade (people monetarily betting on candidates) but it is run by the University of Iowa.
Let's hope that the people (mostly Iowans) who participate in this market are an indication of something.

This is the graph for how people are betting on the Iowa Caucus. (This graph should update daily).

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/IACaucus12.jpg (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_IACaucus12_jpg.cfm)

more: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/republicannomination.html


(http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/republicannomination.html)Also for easy access, here is a link to the Iowa Intrade for comparison: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

[Dr.3D]

Good to see. I suspect it's because the grass roots are doing what the media wouldn't do.

[RonPaulCult]

Has this futures market predicted past elections?

[PauliticsPolitics]

Has this futures market predicted past elections?
This is the first time they are doing the Iowa Caucus.

[Agorism]

Where do I click to see Iowa caucus on that link?

[PauliticsPolitics]

Where do I click to see Iowa caucus on that link?
"IACaucus12 data"
and then "IEM Daily Price Graph - IACaucus12"
That will take you to the graph posted above.
There is other useful information around there though (Daily Quote, Prospectus, etc.)

[hammy]

Holy quack guys. Is this just for GOP voters? If so... that's scary awesome.

[justatrey]

I love this kind of thing. Thanks for posting and +rep.

Here's a link to the graph: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_IACaucus12.cfm

[PauliticsPolitics]

Holy quack guys. Is this just for GOP voters? If so... that's scary awesome.
It's not a poll.
This is how people are betting money in a futures market.
It's basically people (largely Iowans) predicting the outcome for profit.

[hammy]

Wow. He went from $10 in August, to $70+.

[Agorism]

So why does Paul do better in this than intrade?

[Zarn Solen]

So why does Paul do better in this than intrade?

Iowans have a closer grasp on what is happening in Iowa.

[Dr.3D]

I always have problems with these kinds of graphs. I'm color blind. :(

[bluesc]

Iowans have a closer grasp on what is happening in Iowa.

Burn beltway pundits, BURNNN.

[tsai3904]

So why does Paul do better in this than intrade?

This particular market reflects the chances the candidates finish 1st or 2nd, which is why you see the prices for all the candidates add up to 200 instead of 100.

Intrade is a better indicator than this Iowa market because Intrade is a lot more active. The more participants in a market, the more accurate it theoretically should be.

[InTradePro]

The Iowa Electronics Market is kinda like intrade (people monetarily betting on candidates) but it is run by the University of Iowa.
Let's hope that the people (mostly Iowans) who participate in this market are an indication of something.

This is the graph for how people are betting on the Iowa Caucus. (This graph should update daily).

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/IACaucus12.jpg (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_IACaucus12_jpg.cfm)

more: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/republicannomination.html

Graph above is percentage for 1st or 2nd


So why does Paul do better in this than intrade?
In part because this one includes coming second.

[bluesc]

This particular market reflects the chances the candidates finish 1st or 2nd, which is why you see the prices for all the candidates add up to 200 instead of 100.

Intrade is a better indicator than this Iowa market because Intrade is a lot more active. The more participants in a market, the more accurate it theoretically should be.

How do you know everything about everything?

[PauliticsPolitics]

Intrade is a better indicator than this Iowa market because Intrade is a lot more active. The more participants in a market, the more accurate it theoretically should be.
However, as this largely attracts Iowa investors, it reveals a local sentiment perhaps better than Intrade can.

[tsai3904]

However, as this largely attracts Iowa investors, it reveals a local sentiment perhaps better than Intrade can.

That may be true but it is open to everyone worldwide. It is also limited to $500 per user so it is very illiquid compared to Intrade.

[Agorism]

Ya there are all sorts of other contingencies when they bet that way to consider. Newt could potentially have a higher chance of getting first than Paul but at the same time have a higher chance of getting 3rd as well since his support is more variable like the previous bubble candidates going wildly up and down.

[PauliticsPolitics]

As you seen in the auto-updating graph in the original post:
This market is currently betting that Paul is the most likely candidate to win 1st or second in the IA caucuses.
YAY.

[The Free Hornet]

I always have problems with these kinds of graphs. I'm color blind. :(
Translation:

Ron Paul: AWESOME!
Newt: PEAKED!
Mitt: Meh!

[RDM]

Check the latest. Paul is surging. Gingrich is falling and Romney is falling harder.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Bump for major rise today.

[bluesc]

Awesome!

[Agorism]

Intrade numbers



Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
39.6%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
34.3%
CHANCE Predict

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
13.7%
CHANCE Predict

Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
5.0%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Perry to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
4.0%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
2.2%
CHANCE Predict

[InTradePro]

Thanks for the update

[RDM]

something weird is happening. Gingrich's bid price just dropped to below a penny. He has never been that low. Romney price is perking up again. Ron's holding steady.

[ross11988]

something weird is happening. Gingrich's bid price just dropped to below a penny. He has never been that low. Romney price is perking up again. Ron's holding steady.

Rasmussen poll probably got them excited

[wgadget]

LOL...New Rasmussen now puts ROMNEY in the lead.

HAHAHA

[RDM]

Ok, Gingrich bid price just went back up to .50. His numbers have been following last few days. Romney is seeing a bump from being in the high 30's the last few days up to the 50 range.

[No Free Beer]

*exploding*

[Forty Twice]

Intrade and IEM disagree tremendously on Romney right now. IEM graph only shows prices to midnight. Intrade shows current prices and Romney went from 15% to
33% chance of winning since Rasmussen poll released this morning.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/355.html

Current quote on IEM as of 9 AM CST has Paul at .81, Gingrich at .66, and Romney at .42. IEM is not showing a quick Romney rise since 8 AM CST like Intrade does.
Intrade never shows Paul in as good a light as IEM for Iowa Caucus.

Facebook Likes still trended very well for Paul and this signal has been the best leading indicator so far. Today, Romney did spike up picking up about half the likes that Gingrich lost. Paul also went up showing he is getting many of the Gingrich stragglers as well. New Facebook Likes for past 24 hrs:

Paul 3229
Romney 1970
Gingrich 499
Perry 318
Bachmann 255 ** her best day since I started recording on 9/14
Huntsman 153

Obama 3862

Funny how Intrade shows Huntsman with better odds of being Republican nominee than Paul. I think players manipulate Intrade more because so many more people
watch it. IEM probably has very few observers. Why manipulate that which nobody sees?

The Paul / Romney ratio has been pretty steady for the past five days or so. Paul overtook Gingrich about 11 days ago and Gingrich has been steadily
falling ever since. It's clearly a Romney-Paul race on Facebook Likes.

[PauliticsPolitics]

IEM looking nice.
Romney and Paul racing for the top. (see updating chart in OP).

[PauliticsPolitics]

Even better today!

[merrimac]

Sucks that Romney's is going up. Ron Paul needs to start going after Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire as it looks like he will be RP's main challenge.

[randomname]

Sucks that Romney's is going up. Ron Paul needs to start going after Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire as it looks like he will be RP's main challenge.

nah it's good. this chart is for 1st or 2nd place, so Romney and Paul are expected to get 1st and 2nd and Gingrich is very much a long shot for 2nd place. If the chart were for 1st place only, Romney would be going down as well.