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Dianne
12-08-2011, 02:22 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/08/2012-gop-candidates-president_n_1136864.html

The perennial story of the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination has been and may always be that GOP elites are not happy with the choices they've been given. Like the periodic flare-up of a particulary itchy rash, a new clutch of headlines attesting to this fact has popped up every fortnight from the late spring up until this week, when The Hill's Molly Hooper reminded us that "influential conservatives are clearly expressing their dissatisfaction" with the current slate of candidates.

The only variation on the dissatisfaction theme now is the fact that the race has seemingly crystallized into a two-man show between Mitt Romney -- who GOP elites find to be a mealymouthed, inconstant conservative they can't quite trust -- and Newt Gingrich -- who they hold to be gaseous, grandiose, and divisive. (It's actually fairer at this point to consider this a three-man race with Ron Paul in the mix, but Paul is the candidate that establishment GOP types typically try to wish out of existence.) George Will summed up the current thinking again this week in a column that cast a pox on the houses of Romney and Gingrich, in which he decried the former a "conservative of convenience," the latter the embodiment of "the vanity and rapacity that make modern Washington repulsive," before declaring both to be "too risky to anoint today."

So, what's to be done about this, in December of 2011, a few weeks shy of the Iowa Caucuses? Well, there's something of a "let's take one long last look at Jon Huntsman" movement happening in the background, which Huntsman both welcomes and is trying to accommodate by being less like himself. But apparently something much more desperate is afoot among the GOP elites -- a Hail Mary move in which they go into a smoke-filled room and conjure a candidacy out of thin air. RedState's Erick Erickson pulls the relevant passage from the Wall Street Journal's "Political Diary" newsletter:

Efforts are underway by some wealthy Republican donors and a group of conservative leaders to investigate whether a new Republican candidate could still get into the presidential race. The talk is still preliminary and somewhat wishful, but it reflects dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Conservative leaders are looking into whether it is feasible for a dark horse to get on the ballot in select states. The deadline to qualifying for the ballot has passed in Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and New Hampshire. But a candidate could still get on the ballot in states like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Michigan and Texas. At the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, voters write in their choice, so there is no formal filing deadline.


As the above suggests, the prospect of bypassing most of the early primary contests (save Iowa, though the challenge there would be creating a campaign infrastructure from scratch to run a ground game) in the hopes that later contests provide buoyancy to a last-second entrant is a pretty tall order. A yawning, three-week gap in the primary schedule in February perhaps provides some hope that an insurgent candidacy can stage some sort of game-changing spectacle between the hallowed early states' contests and Super Tuesday in March. But even if such a spectacle could be mounted, would the media cover it? As John Ellis noted in a February piece for Business Insider, the media tends to "blow through their pre-primary budgets quickly, overspend on early caucus and primary coverage, and then cut back sharply to conserve funds for convention and general election coverage." Ellis continues:

The net result is that the early state caucuses and primaries are disproportionately important to determining the eventual nominee and that anyone who does not finish first or second in the Iowa caucuses and/or the New Hampshire primary is probably not going to command media coverage thereafter.
So, this has all the makings of a fool's errand. What fool might be up for it? Let's go back to that WSJ piece:

The chatter about potential new entrants include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, businessman Donald Trump, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.
So, you have an unpopular 2008 retread (Giuliani), two guys who have emphatically opted-out on a run numerous times already this year (Ryan and Daniels), a guy who might make a better Rick Perry than Perry has proven to be (DeMint -- who's also emphatically opted out of a 2012 run several times), and a reality-teevee birther charlatan (Trump), who's in the news because of the joke-debate he'll be moderating two days after Christmas. (Erickson also suggests that Jeb Bush is in the mix for this project, which he dismisses overall as "wishful thinking.")

What, no one thought to call George Pataki?

Who will step forward and fund this desperate bid? How do you bridge the gap between an establishment seeking purity and a base that craves authenticity? And how does this new candidate introduce himself to the voters -- "Hi! I'm here because I think the rest of these guys really suck. Who's with me?"

These are all some of the questions that will need to be answered should this effort actually get off the ground. Which it totally won't, by the way.

LibertyEagle
12-08-2011, 02:24 PM
Mitt and Newt are NOT conservatives.

Sheesh, everyone in the media running around calling anyone in the Republican Party a conservative and it just is not true.

jkr
12-08-2011, 02:24 PM
go ahead, try capturing the blue repubs and indies!

Dianne
12-08-2011, 02:31 PM
Look at this stunning line up of conservatives they are trying to recruit:

The chatter about potential new entrants include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, businessman Donald Trump, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.
So, you have an unpopular 2008 retread (Giuliani), two guys who have emphatically opted-out on a run numerous times already this year (Ryan and Daniels), a guy who might make a better Rick Perry than Perry has proven to be (DeMint -- who's also emphatically opted out of a 2012 run several times), and a reality-teevee birther charlatan (Trump), who's in the news because of the joke-debate he'll be moderating two days after Christmas. (Erickson also suggests that Jeb Bush is in the mix for this project, which he dismisses overall as "wishful thinking.")

AuH20
12-08-2011, 02:32 PM
I'd vote for DeMint but he's not running. He's retiring. Tired of the garbage that typifies DC last I heard.

Kords21
12-08-2011, 02:35 PM
Seems like they either don't like Newt or are afraid that his bubble is going to burst and Ron Paul will be given a serious hard look. Either way, I think the GOP elites are running scared.

bluesc
12-08-2011, 02:36 PM
Ryan is going to be Speaker one day. He's a legislator. Any other candidates with potential will be waiting until 2016. Nice try GOP.

Kelly.
12-08-2011, 02:39 PM
another attempt by the republican party to elect "anyone but ron paul"

to those who can see it, it is quite amusing.

AuH20
12-08-2011, 02:41 PM
DeMint has been ruffling feathers lately, especially after the stunt McConnell and Cornyn pulled in Nebraska. Scumbags!

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/198107-demint-displeased-with-gop-leadership-efforts-to-recruit-heieneman


Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) is not pleased with efforts to recruit Heineman by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (R-Texas).

If Heineman runs, he will likely usurp Don Stenberg — DeMint’s pick in the race — as the front-runner to take on Nelson.

DeMint pushed back against McConnell and Cornyn on Thursday in a message to supporters of his political action committee, the Senate Conservatives Fund. He argued the recruitment push by Washington in a race where Republicans already have a field of candidates ignored the wish of Nebraska’s grass roots and violated a pledge GOP leaders made to stay neutral in primaries.

“If you recall, the establishment said our candidates were too conservative to win,” DeMint wrote. “They were wrong then and they're wrong now.”

Xenophage
12-08-2011, 02:47 PM
It wouldn't necessarily be bad for us if this happened. It may simply further dilute the establishment vote.

KingRobbStark
12-08-2011, 02:49 PM
DeMint is an OK guy. I wouldn't mind him becoming RP's VP.

pauladin
12-08-2011, 02:49 PM
I'd vote for DeMint but he's not running. He's retiring. Tired of the garbage that typifies DC last I heard. over ron paul?!

jmdrake
12-08-2011, 02:49 PM
I'd vote for DeMint but he's not running. He's retiring. Tired of the garbage that typifies DC last I heard.

I wouldn't vote for DeMint. He's one of the 93 traitors that just voted to finish killing off the bill of rights. He can burn in hell.

AuH20
12-08-2011, 02:56 PM
over ron paul?!

No. 2nd choice along with GJ.

matt0611
12-08-2011, 03:02 PM
Look at this stunning line up of conservatives they are trying to recruit:

The chatter about potential new entrants include former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, businessman Donald Trump, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint.
So, you have an unpopular 2008 retread (Giuliani), two guys who have emphatically opted-out on a run numerous times already this year (Ryan and Daniels), a guy who might make a better Rick Perry than Perry has proven to be (DeMint -- who's also emphatically opted out of a 2012 run several times), and a reality-teevee birther charlatan (Trump), who's in the news because of the joke-debate he'll be moderating two days after Christmas. (Erickson also suggests that Jeb Bush is in the mix for this project, which he dismisses overall as "wishful thinking.")

Ghouliani? Ryan? Daniels? Trump buhahahahaaha :D
They are so desperate you can just smell it. They all know what's coming.
I'm really loving this!

Bruno
12-08-2011, 03:02 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

No One But Paul!!

Number19
12-08-2011, 03:06 PM
Efforts are underway by some wealthy Republican donors and a group of conservative leaders to investigate whether a new Republican candidate could still get into the presidential race. The talk is still preliminary and somewhat wishful, but it reflects dissatisfaction with the two leading candidates, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
Conservative leaders are looking into whether it is feasible for a dark horse to get on the ballot in select states. The deadline to qualifying for the ballot has passed in Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and New Hampshire. But a candidate could still get on the ballot in states like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Michigan and Texas.Filing deadline here in Texas is next week, December 15th.

musicmax
12-08-2011, 03:35 PM
Filing deadline here in Texas is next week, December 15th.

The ultimate conspiracy theory: "THEY" :toady: pump Ron enough to deny Newt or Mitt a majority, then anoint THEIR candidate at a brokered convention. Of course it backfires when Paul gets enough delegates to win first-ballot :D

AuH20
12-08-2011, 06:22 PM
It's called the Ron and Rand effect:

http://www.worldmag.com/virginia/18651



The senator also told the audience that he has learned to be skeptical about American efforts to transplant democratic values overseas.

Asked about America's role in world affairs, he said the U.S. "has not had good results" when it has tried to set up democracies around the world and would be better off serving as a beacon for home-grown democracy movements and getting its own fiscal house in order.

"I think the best thing we can do for the world is to be that 'city on a hill,'" he said.

"There is no one tea party," DeMint added, noting that the tea partiers are "not a right wing group." Instead, he said, they are "people just worried about the future of the government," who want to return to more of a constitutionally limited government. "They are what Benjamin Franklin meant when he said, 'You have a republic if you can keep it.'"

GeorgiaAvenger
12-08-2011, 06:31 PM
It's called the Ron and Rand effect:

http://www.worldmag.com/virginia/18651


I think DeMint is just confused when it comes to foreign policy. He has mixed feelings.

Noob
12-08-2011, 06:35 PM
There is 84 other Republicans running for President and that's not enough for them?

Steppenwolf6
12-08-2011, 06:47 PM
Demint and Ryan may be dangerous to the potential Ron Paul kind of vote.
The rest is trash.

Steppenwolf6
12-08-2011, 06:49 PM
Except fo De Mint and Ryan i agree:
Throw one more in,be my guest,can't wait for them to get in and divide the establishment vote even further.
But those two,Ryan and DeMint might fish into some Ron Paul type of conservative vote too.

Number19
12-08-2011, 07:02 PM
The ultimate conspiracy theory: "THEY" :toady: pump Ron enough to deny Newt or Mitt a majority, then anoint THEIR candidate at a brokered convention. Of course it backfires when Paul gets enough delegates to win first-ballot :DYou are correct and I haven't seen this mentioned. But in a brokered convention anyone can be nominated on the convention floor, and voted upon.

row333au
12-08-2011, 07:08 PM
For the sake of the public and for the candidates. since the campaigning have already been months too far from when it started and in the hindsight all other events that have occurred for all of the candidates and for the voters, whereby it will only be fair that it should not allow adding anymore candidates at this point in time. There is the question of unfair advantage and disadvantage for all the candidates and for the people voting too.

They are hoping to ram into Americans in accepting 'Republican party choice' rather than 'the people choice'.

Just as the 2 political party election system where put in place to give the illusion of the party preference being one and the same as 'the public's decision'. But the reality is about discouraging people to vote and for people give up their rights and responsibility in who decides for 'what is best for the country and who is best to lead the country' . That is now manipulated and maneuver over to either Republican (neocon-RhINO) or Democrats (neolib-DhINO) who are both as bad pretending to be different and have 'the public in the heart and interest but all indications and evidence confirms that both political parties are under lobbyist, globalist and crony corporatist oligarchy with the incestuous unity of politicians, military industrial complex, wall street bankers, trans-multinational corporations, globalise UN economics and security for one world governance.

So people should demand as their rights to disallow anymore unfairness to this election.

Austrian Econ Disciple
12-08-2011, 07:13 PM
You are correct and I haven't seen this mentioned. But in a brokered convention anyone can be nominated on the convention floor, and voted upon.

Become a Ron Paul delegate to stop this from occuring.

Anti Federalist
12-08-2011, 07:15 PM
Fuck a bunch of GOP retreads, has beens, never beens, neocons and cum drunk political whores.

What don't you establishment, out of control spending, war worshiping, Israel Firsting, Fed supporting, freedom hating, PATRIOT Act enhancing dipshits understand????!!!!

No One But Paul

It's that or lose to Obama, again.

Anti Federalist
12-08-2011, 07:21 PM
Marist poll dated 5 Dec.

Ron Paul is the ONLY GOP candidate to poll even with with Obama. (42 to 42 percent)

All others lose in a head to head match up.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?335737-Marist-poll-Ron-Paul-only-GOP-candidate-that-polls-even-with-Obama.-All-others-lose.

paulpwns
12-08-2011, 07:24 PM
The "no one but Paul" attitude is admirable and principled, but you must face the harsh reality that in order to be accepted by the party, that you would need to support the eventual nominee. You can't decide, at the end, to bail on the party if your guy doesn't get the nod. Keep in mind, that we are running on a Republican platform, and we need Republican voters to get the nomination.

acptulsa
12-08-2011, 07:26 PM
George Will said both Romney and Gingrich are too risky to 'anoint'.

You ain't anointing the next G.O.P. candidate, Georgie boy, and it's going to be someone you (as yet another powermongering faux conservative) like even less than those two chumps.

paulpwns
12-08-2011, 07:28 PM
DeMint has been ruffling feathers lately, especially after the stunt McConnell and Cornyn pulled in Nebraska. Scumbags!

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/198107-demint-displeased-with-gop-leadership-efforts-to-recruit-heieneman

Stenburg already lost once to Nelson and he has risen ZERO dollars outside of Demint's efforts. He is basically unknown/disliked in Nebraska.

Leavenworth in Omaha NE sums it up well,

"Freedomworks PAC — mind you a PAC based in Washington DC, run by Texan Dick Armey and supported by Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina — sent out this email to supporters:

As you know, the Nebraska Republican Senate primary is critically important in our efforts to take back the United States Senate from Harry Reid and his tax-and-spend agenda. To do that, we need to fire Senator Ben “Cornhusker Kickback” Nelson!

But now the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the D.C. establishment political arm of the Senate Republicans, is trying to recruit a new candidate to run and water down the conservative vote!

Nebraska’s Senate Republican primary race should be decided by the people of Nebraska!

That’s why I’m urging you to call and email the NRSC with one message: “Don’t tell us who to vote for in the Nebraska Republican Senate primary. Stay out of our backyard!”

(DeMint’s official group, Senate Conservatives, has pretty much the same message on their website.)

Reeeeeeeealllllly?

“Our backyard?”

By “our” are they referring to Steve Spurrier’s lawn or the courtyard of the Hart Senate Office building? Because those are the only places they have some influence in. It ain’t Nebraska.

It is somewhat amazing here that DeMint is outraged that the Governor of Nebraska is thinking of running for Senate, from Nebraska — when South Carolinian DeMint has already crowned Don Stenberg as his candidate. Politico called it “Faux NIMBYism”.

We have also heard that DeMint is miffed that Bo Pelini is thinking of changing up his defense when the Huskers face the Gamecocks — when South Carolina has already prepared for the Huskers’ other schemes. Doesn’t Bo know that DeMint already endorsed the aforementioned Steve Spurrier’s team???"

John F Kennedy III
12-08-2011, 07:39 PM
Constitution amended to allow Arnold Schwarzenegger to enter GOP race. As the only non-establishment candidate, Ron Paul takes GOP nomination by winning 33 states. Obama then declines to seek re-election. In desperate bid to stop Paul the GOP run Nancy Reagan as an Independent. Dr. Paul is elected President, carrying all 57 states, Canada, Australia and Ireland.

Anti Federalist
12-08-2011, 07:40 PM
The "no one but Paul" attitude is admirable and principled, but you must face the harsh reality that in order to be accepted by the party, that you would need to support the eventual nominee. You can't decide, at the end, to bail on the party if your guy doesn't get the nod. Keep in mind, that we are running on a Republican platform, and we need Republican voters to get the nomination.

GOP rank and file have a choice, nominate Ron or get another four years of Obama.

I can and will "bail".

RP will not support a nominee that runs counter to every principle he (and I) value and I will not vote for one.

Period.

randomname
12-08-2011, 07:41 PM
Desperation

paulpwns
12-08-2011, 08:00 PM
GOP rank and file have a choice, nominate Ron or get another four years of Obama.

I can and will "bail".

RP will not support a nominee that runs counter to every principle he (and I) value and I will not vote for one.

Period.

That is fine, I am not knocking that decision, but I am telling you that Rand is the future, and the party matters.

Suzu
12-08-2011, 08:09 PM
I think they may spring David Petraeus on us.

Anti Federalist
12-08-2011, 08:13 PM
That is fine, I am not knocking that decision, but I am telling you that Rand is the future, and the party matters.

Support Gingrich or Romney now, for a Rand possibly later?

Entirely too Machiavellian for me.

Clichéd, I know, but I don't think we have another four years.

Besides, I think you're being very shortsighted.

The venomous hatred the system has for Ron, will transfer to Rand.

Don't let their honey coated poison fool you.

acptulsa
12-08-2011, 08:43 PM
That is fine, I am not knocking that decision, but I am telling you that Rand is the future, and the party matters.

We're not going to win their respect and admiration by standing idly by while they get fooled into giving Obama four more years. That's just not the way to win them over. It's as simple as that.

Yeah, Republicans like team players. But what they like more is someone who can show them how to win, even if you have to get in their faces to make them see it. Really.

AuH20
12-08-2011, 09:29 PM
Stenburg already lost once to Nelson and he has risen ZERO dollars outside of Demint's efforts. He is basically unknown/disliked in Nebraska.

Leavenworth in Omaha NE sums it up well,

"Freedomworks PAC — mind you a PAC based in Washington DC, run by Texan Dick Armey and supported by Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina — sent out this email to supporters:

As you know, the Nebraska Republican Senate primary is critically important in our efforts to take back the United States Senate from Harry Reid and his tax-and-spend agenda. To do that, we need to fire Senator Ben “Cornhusker Kickback” Nelson!

But now the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the D.C. establishment political arm of the Senate Republicans, is trying to recruit a new candidate to run and water down the conservative vote!

Nebraska’s Senate Republican primary race should be decided by the people of Nebraska!

That’s why I’m urging you to call and email the NRSC with one message: “Don’t tell us who to vote for in the Nebraska Republican Senate primary. Stay out of our backyard!”

(DeMint’s official group, Senate Conservatives, has pretty much the same message on their website.)

Reeeeeeeealllllly?

“Our backyard?”

By “our” are they referring to Steve Spurrier’s lawn or the courtyard of the Hart Senate Office building? Because those are the only places they have some influence in. It ain’t Nebraska.

It is somewhat amazing here that DeMint is outraged that the Governor of Nebraska is thinking of running for Senate, from Nebraska — when South Carolinian DeMint has already crowned Don Stenberg as his candidate. Politico called it “Faux NIMBYism”.

We have also heard that DeMint is miffed that Bo Pelini is thinking of changing up his defense when the Huskers face the Gamecocks — when South Carolina has already prepared for the Huskers’ other schemes. Doesn’t Bo know that DeMint already endorsed the aforementioned Steve Spurrier’s team???"

The Nebraska governor should get in or stop the waffling at this late stage of the game. Stenberg as of today holds a 6% lead over the heavily disliked Nelson, without really any money or organization. The NRSC is clearly Johnny Come Lately on this while other organizations like SCF and Freedom Works are trying to spark interest for a solid yet unspectacular candidate, who narrowly lost to Nelson previously.

TER
12-08-2011, 09:46 PM
The "no one but Paul" attitude is admirable and principled, but you must face the harsh reality that in order to be accepted by the party, that you would need to support the eventual nominee. You can't decide, at the end, to bail on the party if your guy doesn't get the nod. Keep in mind, that we are running on a Republican platform, and we need Republican voters to get the nomination.

I don't vote for a party. I vote for a person.

Miss Annie
12-08-2011, 09:54 PM
Support Gingrich or Romney now, for a Rand possibly later?

Entirely too Machiavellian for me.

Clichéd, I know, but I don't think we have another four years.

Besides, I think you're being very shortsighted.

The venomous hatred the system has for Ron, will transfer to Rand.

Don't let their honey coated poison fool you.

I don't think we have another four years either. Most days I feel like I will be just friggin amazed if we even make it to the next election.

TNforPaul45
12-08-2011, 10:34 PM
If they pull shenanigans and screw Ron Paul over, we wil take our 18% and go home to listen to Obama's relection speech. If the GOP was smart, they would know they've already been checkmated. its over, Paul is the nominee, send the rest HOME!!!!

randomname
12-11-2011, 07:15 PM
2012 Republican Race: The Field May Not Be Closed

Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist December 8th, 2011

Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.

But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.

In some respects, the layout of the 2012 primary calendar resembles that in 1976, starting in the dead of winter with events in Iowa and New Hampshire and building to a crescendo with California in early June. That year, President Gerald Ford and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan battled delegate for delegate until Ford prevailed at the convention that summer in Kansas City. It was the most closely contested and longest-running Republican nominating contest in the last 40 years.

On the Democratic side, the “back-loaded” arrangement of the primary calendar encouraged two late entries in 1976, Gov. Jerry Brown of California and Sen. Frank Church of Idaho. Each won several spring-time primaries. But they mounted their campaigns too late to offset former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter’s long lead in the delegate count.

Eight years earlier, Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York was a far more successful late starter. He entered the Democratic race after the New Hampshire primary and proceeded to run off a series of high-profile primary victories, culminating with a winner-take-all triumph in California in early June. Had he not been shot the night of his California victory, Kennedy might have gone on to wrest the nomination from Vice President Hubert Humphrey. As it is, Kennedy’s unfinished campaign is one of American history’s more intriguing “what ifs.”

Chart 1: GOP delegate count will build slowly
Virtually all of the candidate and media attention these days is focused on the early Republican primaries and caucuses. But taken together, they offer only a small fraction of the total number of GOP delegates that will be going to the national convention next summer in Tampa. Heading into Super Tuesday (March 6), only 15% of the GOP delegates will have been chosen. The halfway mark in delegate selection will not come until later in the month, and for one candidate to acquire a nominating majority of roughly 1,142 delegates, it could take much, much longer.

Note: The number of events includes primaries or caucuses scheduled in states and territories, as well as Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. As of Nov. 21, dates were still pending for events in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, each with nine delegates.

Sources: Delegate totals are from the Republican National Committee. Presidential primary and caucus dates are mainly from the Federal Election Commission. Both the delegate totals and presidential primary and caucus dates are subject to small changes.

To be successful, a late-starting campaign needs to feature a candidate with considerable fund-raising and organizational ability who is capable of quickly grabbing national attention. Charisma helps, as does a campaign message that can evoke widespread support. Robert Kennedy fit the bill in 1968, and there are arguably a few prominent Republicans on the sidelines this time who could mount a competitive, late-starting candidacy in 2012. These could include one of the establishment non-candidates who Republican elites pressured to enter the race earlier this year, such as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (although Christie has already endorsed Mitt Romney). The entry of any of these Republicans would cause waves, and because of their high profiles they would have little trouble raising money or attracting establishment support. On the other hand, if Romney gets off to a strong start in January’s opening round, then there might be pressure on the right to enlist former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to pick up the anti-establishment baton.

The long intermission next February — there are no primaries selecting delegates between Florida on Jan. 31 and Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28 — provides a natural opening for major changes in the Republican nominating contest to take place. It gives time for active candidates to reassess their campaigns and for prospective candidates to make their move.

The main problem calendar-wise for late-starting candidates is there is often a lag time of two to three months between a primary filing deadline and the primary election itself. As a result, a candidate that jumped into the race early next February would still be too late to get his or her name on the ballot in all the primaries through early April, roughly 20 states in all. In these states, a late starter would have to be creative — “adopting” the Uncommitted line, for instance, in states where they are listed or mounting write-in campaigns in states where they are permitted.

But a late-starting candidate would be able to compete in caucus states immediately, where filing deadlines are rarely an issue. There will be fully a dozen states, plus territories, that will be holding their caucuses from Feb. 4 on. They will be offering a total of roughly 450 delegates.

And a candidate that entered the Republican contest in the wake of the Florida primary would be able to enter at least 15 primaries from April 24 on. It is a number that includes delegate-rich New York and Pennsylvania on April 24, Indiana and North Carolina on May 8, California and New Jersey on June 5 and Ohio on June 12. Taken together, this late array of primaries offers roughly 800 delegates, many of them to be awarded on a winner-take-all basis.

In addition, candidates that fall by the wayside as the primaries unfold often release their delegates, providing another significant pool for late-starting candidates to woo.

In short, the “new look” Republican nominating schedule for 2012 offers scenarios that the “front-loaded” calendars of the recent past could not. The likelihood of the usual quick knockout is reduced, while the prospect of a long slog for delegates is enhanced. And who knows, the latter could feature a late-starting candidate or two, adding another unique twist to a Republican presidential nominating campaign that has already displayed considerable fluidity.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/

Found this piece linked to in The Economist

anaconda
12-11-2011, 08:28 PM
The Republican elites should put up a Ron Paul clone who is really an imposter turn coat puppet. It is their only chance.

Stevo_Chill
12-11-2011, 08:30 PM
it is already too late to qualify for almost half the states. for someone to get in now would be a useless exercise. half the delegates are already cut off to a new comer.

Kylie
12-11-2011, 09:17 PM
The "no one but Paul" attitude is admirable and principled, but you must face the harsh reality that in order to be accepted by the party, that you would need to support the eventual nominee. You can't decide, at the end, to bail on the party if your guy doesn't get the nod. Keep in mind, that we are running on a Republican platform, and we need Republican voters to get the nomination.


I only became a "republican" in order to vote for RP.

I do not hold the principles that the current republicans hold, I am my own man(woman, actually).

They need to understand that there are a SHIT TON of us who are this way, and our votes also matter. According to the principles I hold, there is truly NO ONE BUT PAUL who is running for office. All others are shills and will not hold true to the principles I hold dear.

I am one person. An independent. If you want to keep me on your team, you'd do well to remember that we actually have principles that we will not waver from. There is no compromising in this. It's do or die. Heed this warning, because it will be the only one you get.

Kylie
12-11-2011, 09:21 PM
The Republican elites should put up a Ron Paul clone who is really an imposter turn coat puppet. It is their only chance.

Don't give those assholes any ideas please!

:)

row333au
12-11-2011, 09:56 PM
For the sake of the public and for the candidates. since the campaigning have already been months too far from when it started and in the hindsight all other events that have occurred for all of the candidates and for the voters, whereby it will only be fair that it should not allow adding anymore candidates at this point in time. There is the question of unfair advantage and disadvantage for all the candidates and for the people voting too.

They are hoping to ram into Americans in accepting 'Republican party choice' rather than 'the people choice'.

Just as the 2 political party election system where put in place to give the illusion of the party preference being one and the same as 'the public's decision'. But the reality is about discouraging people to vote and for people give up their rights and responsibility in who decides for 'what is best for the country and who is best to lead the country' . That is now manipulated and maneuver over to either Republican (neocon-RhINO) or Democrats (neolib-DhINO) who are both as bad pretending to be different and have 'the public in the heart and interest but all indications and evidence confirms that both political parties are under lobbyist, globalist and crony corporatist oligarchy with the incestuous unity of politicians, military industrial complex, wall street bankers, trans-multinational corporations, globalise UN economics and security for one world governance.

So people should demand as their rights to disallow anymore unfairness to this election.

newsstand.org.au - Send News Ltd a message
A new report has found massive bias in Rupert Murdoch's News Limited press. Email the new CEO and tell him to turn a new leaf at News Ltd.

NOTE: Until the formation of the News Corp Limited in 1979, News Limited was the principal holding company for the business interests of Rupert Murdoch and his family. Since then, News Limited has been wholly owned by News Corp Limited. In 2004, News Corp Limited announced its intention to reincorporate to the United States. On 3 November News Corp Limited ceased trading on the Australian Stock Exchange; and on 8 November, News Corporation Inc. began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. News Ltd. acquisition in the United States includes the San Antonio Express-News, National Star, supermarket tabloid magazines, New York Post, movie studio 20th Century Fox, Metromedia group of stations a fourth U.S. commercial broadcasting television network that set the Fox Broadcasting Company now in over 96% of U.S. households. This is why Americans can take advantage of this petition as well to drive this to make this world wide demand.

http://www.newsstand.org.au/campaigns/acij-report/new-news-ltd-ceo/send-news-ltd-a-message?t=dXNlcmlkPTcwNSxlbWFpbGlkPTk%3D

List of assets owned by News Corporation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_News_Corporation