What states besides Iowa do we actually have a chance at?

[JasonM]

Assuming a win in Iowa, I don't see how RP would be able to do much better than Huckabee unless the fight between Romney and Gingrich is close and inconclusive and RP manages to get a big enough percentage of delegates to force an open and brokered convention.

But even in this scenario, what would stop Romney and Gingrich from making a deal with each other to put each other on the ticket, with Gingrich settling for the VP slot? I'm sure RP would refuse a VP slot from either one of those two given how liberal both of them are (which is why I think even the brokered convention scenario bodes poorly for Paul).

I don't think an Iowa win will be a game changer any more than a Huckabee win was a game changer except for causing Romney to lose to McCain in the end.

[Steppenwolf6]

Crosses...wooden peaks...garlic to me NOW!

SATAN GET OUT OF THIS POOR SAD POSSESSED SOUL NOW!

VADE RETRO SATAN!!

[degen]

The assumption is that a lot of people are holding out on supporting RP because he is "unelectable". Iowa win would change that perception and cause his numbers to increase nationwide. Some endorsments may come his way as well, possibly Palin. More money as well as closet libertarians realize that a pro-liberty candidate actually just won something. He gets more media coverage.

If that does not pan out, Nevada looks very promising.

[blakjak]

Ron Paul's team just announced five new office openings in non-early states: Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota and Washington

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69993.html#ixzz1fuUfVA2T

Also, the campaign already opened offices in Nevada and Louisiana earlier this year.

[bluesc]

Small possibility of NH. Good chance in Nevada, Louisiana, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington, other caucus states, and Texas. It will be a long battle right down until the final states in the primary process. Even Romney is acknowledging that.

[bluesc]

Ron Paul's team just announced five new office openings in non-early states: Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota and Washington

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69993.html#ixzz1fuUfVA2T

There's part of the answer. Early caucus states, which he will likely win.

[Steppenwolf6]

Let's' just do anything possible to win Iowa and inform,create enthusiasm and new supporters everywhere for now?
Then think of N.H...
One win at a time.
Possible?

[Steppenwolf6]

Ron Paul is not Huckabee.
2007/8 is not 2011/12.

[blakjak]

There's part of the answer. Early caucus states, which he will likely win.

Yup, definitely targeting the caucus states. They have a strategy and are going all out.

[eric4186]

Huckabee was the exception. If I'm not mistaken, before him everyone that had won Iowa went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.

[twomp]

When it comes to delegates, I think Dr. Paul has a very good chance. Consider this - California has 172 delegates, Texas has 149 thats 321 delegates out of the roughly 1300 needed to win the nomination. Almost 1/4 the required amount. I am from California and I feel like there is a lot of support around here for him. Here is a link to an estimate of the delegate breakdown:


http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtml?sort=t

[braane]

Some endorsments may come his way as well, possibly Palin.

People keep saying this. I don't see Palin endorsing Paul. I just saw a brief interview with her on Fox News. She was like "Trump debate is relevant. Romney and Huntsman should go..." See anyone missing? Even Palin is going for the Paul blackout.

[ChrisDixon]

I can't speak for other states, but we have a good thing going in Maine right now. Our grassroots has been organized for about a year now. Once it was looking like a real possibility that Ron would be back, we got together, having a structure with coordinators, State, district, and county. And now the campaign has sent us a group of strong individuals to lead up here. The combination of both gives me much optimism.

The only other candidate who had any real grassroots here was Herman Cain and since he's bowed out, they've all scattered. No other campaign has a presence here, although Ann Romney has been here a time or two campaigning for her husband.

[Feelgood]

I think Nevada and California are very do-able.

[Uriah]

Ron Paul's team just announced five new office openings in non-early states: Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota and Washington

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69993.html#ixzz1fuUfVA2T

Also, the campaign already opened offices in Nevada and Louisiana earlier this year.

Paul has campaign offices in Iowa, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, and North Dakota. If offices are opening then the campaign thinks it is worth it. Meaning they think they have a shot of winning. Correct me if I am wrong but all of these states with the exception of New Hampshire are caucus states (to a degree).

I'll add Texas because it is his home state.

[JasonM]

The assumption is that a lot of people are holding out on supporting RP because he is "unelectable". Iowa win would change that perception and cause his numbers to increase nationwide. Some endorsments may come his way as well, possibly Palin. More money as well as closet libertarians realize that a pro-liberty candidate actually just won something. He gets more media coverage.

If that does not pan out, Nevada looks very promising.


Let's hope so. It seems like Deja Vu all over again with Newt, whose campaign was written off as "dead", all of a sudden making such a comeback like McCain did in 2008. If Florida ends up being the kingmaker of this primary election like it was in 2008, and Newt ends up with the nomination, I will start seeing this as part two of a really really bad movie. Or maybe a really good one like Lord of the Rings, but if this is anything like two towers then our "defeat of Saruman" moment will come in the area of us taking decisive control of the Republican party by 2016.

Also, LMAO @ Steppenwolf6!! Spoken like a true believer!! :D

[Steppenwolf6]

Huckabee was the exception. If I'm not mistaken, before him everyone that had won Iowa went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.
Almost all of them on both sides,republicrats and democans.
Carter,Kennedy,Obummer...Ford ,Reagan,small and big bushes..
You name it!

They have all won Iowa.

As opposed to what MSM will try to do,by bringing up "Huckabee"( the exception)...
IOWA DOES COUNT ,a whole lot.

And particularly so on a candidate that "can't win a single state ' ,so the MSM mantra says( actually quoting Bill'o :" He WILL NOT win a single state ,i guarantee you!') like Ron Paul.

[musicmax]

Huckabee was the exception. If I'm not mistaken, before him everyone that had won Iowa went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.

On the GOP side, the six non-incumbent elections have seen 3 caucus winners NOT be the nominee:

Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 but lost the nomination to McCain.
George HW Bush won Iowa 1980 but lost the nomination to Ronald Reagan.
George HW Bush lost Iowa to Bob Dole but won the nomination in 1988.

Gerald Ford (1976 over Reagan), Bob Dole (1996), and George W Bush (2000) won both Iowa and the nomination.

[The Gold Standard]

Some endorsments may come his way as well, possibly Palin.

Palin isn't going to endorse Ron. She was on Bolling's show tonight and she said she was interested in seeing who Ron is going to endorse.

[LibertyProsperity_56]

You are babbling exactly what the media has been trying to brainwash everyone into believing. Go away, troll.


Assuming a win in Iowa, I don't see how RP would be able to do much better than Huckabee unless the fight between Romney and Gingrich is close and inconclusive and RP manages to get a big enough percentage of delegates to force an open and brokered convention.

But even in this scenario, what would stop Romney and Gingrich from making a deal with each other to put each other on the ticket, with Gingrich settling for the VP slot? I'm sure RP would refuse a VP slot from either one of those two given how liberal both of them are (which is why I think even the brokered convention scenario bodes poorly for Paul).

I don't think an Iowa win will be a game changer any more than a Huckabee win was a game changer except for causing Romney to lose to McCain in the end.

[Feelgood]

Palin isn't going to endorse Ron. She was on Bolling's show tonight and she said she was interested in seeing who Ron is going to endorse.

Simple. Ron will endorse Ron. 'Nuff said.

[Steppenwolf6]

You are babbling exactly what the media has been trying to brainwash everyone into believing. Go away, troll.

easy now friend,some people are just pessimists and watch to much tv.
maybe they just need some help .

[JasonM]

Almost all of them on both sides,republicrats and democans.
Carter,Kennedy,Obummer...Ford ,Reagan,small and big bushes..
You name it!

They have all won Iowa.

As opposed to what MSM will try to do,by bringing up "Huckabee"( the exception)...
IOWA DOES COUNT ,a whole lot.

And particularly so on a candidate that "can't win a single state ' ,so the MSM mantra says( actually quoting Bill'o :" He WILL NOT win a single state ,i guarantee you!') like Ron Paul.

Musicmax has it right. The purpose of the Iowa caucus and NH primary is to make candidates like Huntsman, Sanctorum and Bachman drop out. Rick Perry will follow next I suspect once he does poorly in SC and FL.

After Florida, I suspect it will be a 3 man race between Gingrich, Romney and Paul.

[JasonM]

"easy now friend,some people are just pessimists and watch to much tv.
maybe they just need some help ."

And some of us have actually been there in 2008 and got a bitter disappointment when they saw the state polls close the election as actually being fairly accurate, instead of reflecting the "Cell phone theory of poll inaccuracy" stories.

Newt seems just too much like McCain, and the conspiracy theorist in me suspects that this is entirely scripted by the media. :S

It just means we have to work ever harder than before, and focus on making further in-roads in the Republican party by claiming important positions within the party structure itself either by outright elections or by becoming party officials or serving other party functions to gain influence and broaden our advantage.

[milo10]

Assuming a win in Iowa, I don't see how RP would be able to do much better than Huckabee unless the fight between Romney and Gingrich is close and inconclusive and RP manages to get a big enough percentage of delegates to force an open and brokered convention.

But even in this scenario, what would stop Romney and Gingrich from making a deal with each other to put each other on the ticket, with Gingrich settling for the VP slot? I'm sure RP would refuse a VP slot from either one of those two given how liberal both of them are (which is why I think even the brokered convention scenario bodes poorly for Paul).

I don't think an Iowa win will be a game changer any more than a Huckabee win was a game changer except for causing Romney to lose to McCain in the end.

I answered a similar comment of yours in another thread. You bring up something really important.

Newt has to deflate. He has to follow the same course that Cain, Perry, and Bachmann did. I don't think we can win a three-way race, with Newt playing the role of the conservative anti-Romney.

Newt has to deflate to 2nd or 3rd tier status by the time of South Carolina. Otherwise, this will be a hard grind.

I think it will happen. But am I certain of that? No. I am hoping Mitt sees Newt as the bigger threat and goes after him hard. Our attack ad on Newt was gold, but it is still below a million views on Youtube. We need to keep the pressure on.

[Original_Intent]

Iowa is a lynchpin in my opinion. If he wins Iowa, he could flat out take NH, I even think it becomes a decently high probability. If he is seen in electable, he will soak up a lot of the undecideds and a lot of other candidates "soft" support. Again, nothing scientific, but it is not wishful thinking, it's what I think likely.

[69360]

"easy now friend,some people are just pessimists and watch to much tv.
maybe they just need some help ."

And some of us have actually been there in 2008 and got a bitter disappointment when they saw the state polls close the election as actually being fairly accurate, instead of reflecting the "Cell phone theory of poll inaccuracy" stories.

Newt seems just too much like McCain, and the conspiracy theorist in me suspects that this is entirely scripted by the media. :S

It just means we have to work ever harder than before, and focus on making further in-roads in the Republican party by claiming important positions within the party structure itself either by outright elections or by becoming party officials or serving other party functions to gain influence and broaden our advantage.

McCain wasn't up at this point 4 years ago. He was 3rd.

Just need delegates up until April, winning isn't everything in proportional states.

All the caucuses and loophole primaries are winnable by organization. PA and IL can be won if everyone runs for delegate. The popular vote is a beauty contest.

[Steppenwolf6]

One small factor missing in all of these fixed equations about delegates and fascinating risk tactical plays and stratego strategical strategies:

Our numbers are growing now,right as we speak.

Let's keep on doing what we are doing now and if possible even more so and we may actually WIN.

[anaconda]

Newt could be the McCain of 2008. If the Keating 5/Saving & Loan scandal didn't have McCain disqualified from serious consideration as a contender in 2008, then why should Newt's baggage disqualify him?

[Steppenwolf6]

Actually the " Ron Paul polls a little lower than he actually stands conspiracy theory "..was proven generally true then and it's probably true now.
Possibly even more so now.

[Marky]

Newt could be the McCain of 2008. If the Keating 5/Saving & Loan scandal didn't have McCain disqualified from serious consideration as a contender in 2008, then why should Newt's baggage disqualify him?

Newt has considerably worse baggage, and has zero crossover appeal.

[69360]

Actually the " Ron Paul polls a little lower than he actually stands conspiracy theory "..was proven generally true then and it's probably true now.
Possibly even more so now.

A little. 3 points MAYBE 5. We are not winning right now, anyone who thinks we are is nuts.

We need a Newt collapse and we need it now. It's the last obstacle to success.

[seawolf]

Study up on Rule 15 to the 2008 GOP Convention. It states in part any State holding a Primary or Caucus before 1 April 2011 must award their delegates proportionally according to the results of that primary or Caucus. There are no Winner take all States until April.

Even Ed Rollins on Fox Business tonight predicted a protracted battle for delegates, with the caveat that the candidate must have the organization and funding to make it over the next four months.....

Iowa is critical I agree, but if Ron Paul finishes second he is still very much in the game....

[milo10]

Newt has considerably worse baggage, and has zero crossover appeal.

Yes, and McCain had a harrowing personal history that always made people view him with a little more sympathy.

[milo10]

Study up on Rule 15 to the 2008 GOP Convention. It states in part any State holding a Primary or Caucus before 1 April 2011 must award their delegates proportionally according to the results of that primary or Caucus. There are no Winner take all States until April.

I have seen multiple sources state that Florida is winner take all. E.g., http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/25/florida-gop-primary-2012_n_1030417.html

[GunnyFreedom]

If we can get a solid blue Republican effort going in NC, we stand a good chance of crushing this state. There is an anti gay marriage constitutional amendment on the primary ballot. Convince Dems and Libs that the best way to kill Amendment 1 is for it to lose on the REPUBLICAN ballot, and oh by the way while you are there vote Ron Paul.

[JasonM]

I have seen multiple sources state that Florida is winner take all. E.g., http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/25/florida-gop-primary-2012_n_1030417.html

Yup. If anyone remembers, Florida is supposed to actually have 100 delegates, but got punished by having 50 delegates taken away because they unilaterally moved their primary up without the blessing of the National party. In fact there was talk of punishing them even further for violating two rules, but I think party rules prevented the National Party from punishing Florida twice over for the same act.

If Florida ends up nominating the winner again, it will turn Florida into the kingmaker primary instead of the other states like NH or Iowa, and will further decrease their importance in the future.

[JasonM]

Stupid double post lol

[PauliticsPolitics]

http://technorati.com/politics/article/year-of-the-caucuses-ron-pauls/#ixzz1fuCoqBDL

[MJU1983]

Missouri

[Indy Vidual]

Huckabee was the exception. If I'm not mistaken, before him everyone that had won Iowa went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.

Yes, Iowa is usually more important than in 2008.

If my memory is correct, then this is more accurate:
If I'm not mistaken, before him everyone that had won Iowa went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.

If I'm not mistaken, before him every (R) that had won South Carolina went on to be nominated in like the last 50 years.

[JasonM]

http://technorati.com/politics/article/year-of-the-caucuses-ron-pauls/#ixzz1fuCoqBDL

Good find!! Exactly what I needed to read! Second place or outright wins in these other caucus states will be exactly what we need to continue the momentum.

[Indy Vidual]

I have seen multiple sources state that Florida is winner take all. E.g., http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/25/florida-gop-primary-2012_n_1030417.html

There are no Winner take all States until April....

I also read that recently, and think it's true. Florida used to be winner-take-all, but not any more.

[JasonM]

Can you post a link to a source that says florida is a proportional caucus now?

[Steppenwolf6]

http://technorati.com/politics/article/year-of-the-caucuses-ron-pauls/#ixzz1fuCoqBDL

When you look at this you see someone with an organized, possible,planned,very difficult yet realistic path to win.

Many of the others guys ,the second-tier ones..they are "just triyng" ... they are dreaming " maybe if i get a good show in that state i will catch fire or something".
Ron Paul instead has a plan to a win.

It will be Mission Impossible in many ways,possible dirty tricks included.. but he has a chance now.

The key ,thou,would still be a win in Iowa.

Delegates or not the simbolic value of the message "the WINNER is" ,the positive effect of " the number ONE is".. it's incalculable in the imaginery and viewpoints of the millions,band-wagon effect included.

[WIwarrior]

Can you post a link to a source that says florida is a proportional caucus now?

hxxp://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpps/news/florida-gop-primary-winner-to-carry-all-50-delegates-dpgonc-20111024-bb_15632893

Florida GOP Primary Winner to Carry all 50 Delegates

[Indy Vidual]

Can you post a link to a source that says florida is a proportional caucus now?

I didn't say "caucus." Florida is (probably) a proportional primary, since all early primaries and caucuses are proportional now.
Source = Radio, so no link atm, but I'm 99.9% certain of what I heard on the radio.

[Indy Vidual]

hxxp://www.myfoxhouston.com/dpps/news/florida-gop-primary-winner-to-carry-all-50-delegates-dpgonc-20111024-bb_15632893

Florida GOP Primary Winner to Carry all 50 Delegates

There are conflicting sources/reports.
Here:

...consider also that the GOP changed its winner take all rules. Now, any state that holds a primary or caucus before April 1 must award their delegates on a proportional basis, rather than the winner-take-all method.
http://www.dailypaul.com/187707/new-gop-rules-award-delegates-proportionally-not-winner-take-all

[Fredom101]

Assuming a win in Iowa, I don't see how RP would be able to do much better than Huckabee unless the fight between Romney and Gingrich is close and inconclusive and RP manages to get a big enough percentage of delegates to force an open and brokered convention.

But even in this scenario, what would stop Romney and Gingrich from making a deal with each other to put each other on the ticket, with Gingrich settling for the VP slot? I'm sure RP would refuse a VP slot from either one of those two given how liberal both of them are (which is why I think even the brokered convention scenario bodes poorly for Paul).

I don't think an Iowa win will be a game changer any more than a Huckabee win was a game changer except for causing Romney to lose to McCain in the end.

Again, Newt's only job in this campaign is to make sure RP doesn't gain traction. Newt is the neocon insurance. Romney's their man, keeping RP out of the news is the second goal. Will RP win NH? Almost no chance realistically. Will he win NH if he wins Iowa? No, he'll get more votes though and make it closer. I'm just trying to be realistic here- the politicians and controllers of the game usually know exactly what they are doing.

[XTreat]

Huck had no money, he won Iowa because Fairtax funded him and helped GOTV. after Iowa he was toast cause he had no infrastructure.

[damiengwa]

Again, Newt's only job in this campaign is to make sure RP doesn't gain traction. Newt is the neocon insurance. Romney's their man, keeping RP out of the news is the second goal. Will RP win NH? Almost no chance realistically. Will he win NH if he wins Iowa? No, he'll get more votes though and make it closer. I'm just trying to be realistic here- the politicians and controllers of the game usually know exactly what they are doing.

yeah but we have many seeds planted in New Hampshire from last go round. Not to mention that indy voters will likely be going in as Republicans since Obama's a shoe in. There are plenty of disaffected democrat leaning NH voters who are anti-war, and anti-banks. I wouldn't count NH out for Ron Paul.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Honestly, we shouldn't be looking at Huckabee's strategy.
Obama's winning Iowa strategy (and beyond) is more relevant.

[Steppenwolf6]

Exactly.
Paul is stacking up some money and will have money for the long run,with the number of donors growing .. and is opening organizations in every single state.

THAT'S a serious campaign.

[The Dark Knight]

We Must win all the pre super Tuesday Caucus states (Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine and Washington State. ) Then on Super Tuesday we need to win the Texas Primary along with the other Caucus states (Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota) If we come out of Super Tuesday with a Majority of Delegates we are looking good.

[J_White]

good read, the dream seems to be coming closer to reality.
keep working, keep calling, talking to people, going door to door specially in early states.

[JasonM]

good read, the dream seems to be coming closer to reality.
keep working, keep calling, talking to people, going door to door specially in early states.

I agree. Thanks everyone for giving me reassurance that what happens this year will probably blow everyone's expectations just like our performance at the Iowa straw poll. But.....let's try to get more than a close 2nd to Gingrich so they can't just ignore it, ok? :)

AND WATCH THOSE POLLS AND THE VOTE COUNTERS!! THEY CANT BE TRUSTED!! Enuf said!

[anaconda]

Paul is stacking up some money and will have money for the long run,with the number of donors growing ..

Are the number of donors growing?

[bluesc]

Are the number of donors growing?

I would assume yes.

[Jingles]

Honestly, I think we'll do well everywhere that isn't the South (NC, SC, Florida, Georgia, etc...)

[Uriah]

Honestly, I think we'll do well everywhere that isn't the South (NC, SC, Florida, Georgia, etc...)

The south doesn't seem to be good for Dr. Paul's campaign at all. I would think he would do better. If he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire it should help him but it remains to be seen if it will be enough for a win.

[tbone717]

Honestly, the people that live in states other than IA & NH really aren't paying much attention to what is going on right now. Remember, that the majority of the people that will vote in primaries and caucuses do not spend a whole lot of time paying attention to political news. Very few actually go to candidate's sites, read their positions, study as to who they feel best represents their values & positions. It is in large part a popularity contest and people are more influenced by the narrative than by anything else.

Early polling in SC and FL for example is really meaningless. For example, in the latest CNN poll Bachmann, Santorum & Huntsman have a total support of 11%, and there are 12% that were undecided. In the likely situation that those three candidates will drop out of the race by SC, those votes are up for grabs. Also consider that support for Newt in large part is soft support. Momentum swung his way, so now poll respondents in a state like SC are putting his name up rather than Cain - he truly is a flavor of the month.

IA and NH will do two things. First it will trim the field, as candidates with little money and organization will be forced to drop out after a poor showing in IA and NH. Second, the results of those races will set the narrative for what happens going forward. Does Newt come in an embarrassing third in those states, far behind Paul & Romney? Does Paul win IA by a large margin? Does Romney win NH by 2 points instead of the 10+ points the polls were showing? All of these potential situations change the narrative of the race as it moves to SC, FL and NV.

We are in a good position to make a historical change in this race. But the campaign needs everyone that is able to get to work. Donate money & make phone calls. It is just that simple. Forget everything else that you think you know about winning an election and follow the lead and the requests of the campaign. Donate money & make phone calls. This is how we will win.

[Steve-in-NY]

I agree, we need to step up our activity and go out of our comfort zones to spread the word.

[Anti Federalist]

Iowa is a lynchpin in my opinion. If he wins Iowa, he could flat out take NH, I even think it becomes a decently high probability. If he is seen in electable, he will soak up a lot of the undecideds and a lot of other candidates "soft" support. Again, nothing scientific, but it is not wishful thinking, it's what I think likely.

I'm not sure it becomes that iron clad, but it is a must for a solid finish in NH.

Must. Win. Iowa.

This is "no shit".

[GunnyFreedom]

SC would go for "re-opening Charleston for Business"

eta -- a pragmatic version of bring the troops home. Re-open all the bases. Money spends at home.

[Galileo Galilei]

There are no Winner take all States until April....

I also read that recently, and think it's true. Florida used to be winner-take-all, but not any more.

Florida got penalized half their delegates, so winner-take-all rule has been waived for them.

[Steppenwolf6]

Newt is a big,funny baloon that's already landing down.
All we need to do is pinch him well and ...pooooooofffff...gone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-FgSxSmYVo

[GeorgiaAvenger]

I think South Carolina needs to be a growing focus.

Lets say Paul wins Iowa, gets second in NH, and then goes to SC and finishes 5th. It will be over.

[GunnyFreedom]

I think South Carolina needs to be a growing focus.

Lets say Paul wins Iowa, gets second in NH, and then goes to SC and finishes 5th. It will be over.

Ron Paul will make us stronger, and re-open Charleston for business again.

[69360]

Florida got penalized half their delegates, so winner-take-all rule has been waived for them.

I though it was both. Turns out there will be a hearing in January to decide if it's proportional or winner takes all.


I think South Carolina needs to be a growing focus.

Lets say Paul wins Iowa, gets second in NH, and then goes to SC and finishes 5th. It will be over.

It's all proportional primaries until april except maybe FL. It's not even close to over after SC. There are 47 more states.

[GunnyFreedom]

What happens when we put our best bases right here at home again and energize our own economies while enhancing our security.

Get the list of US base closures and downsizings, and you will find a lot of people who have lost their jobs due to overdeployment. Base closure. Go into creeping Detroit and bring Midas back in old military towns. Open the bases back up.

[Steppenwolf6]

IF we win Iowa anything could happen in N.H.

[GunnyFreedom]

We should target every town that has been shut down from a base closure, and promote the re-opening of all domestic and territorial bases. Stop the hemorrhaging is the first step to recovery. Bring capital back home will begin to restore our economy. And we will be safer at the same time. A few extra battalions at Ft Benning on alert will keep Atlanta a lot safer than supplementing Germany's defense budget.

ETA -- these are the SC, GA, NC arguments. Wherever big base closures are.

ETAA - Ron Paul can dam well win the South and don't you forget it.

[MikeM39]

Ron Paul is not Huckabee.
2007/8 is not 2011/12.

Correct, he's not as strong as Huckabee because Huckabee appealed to the poor Evangelicals which Paul does not.

[GunnyFreedom]

Chuck Baldwin could be blowing SC away right now.

eta - set up a "Baldwin Church Tour of SC for Ron Paul" Where Baldwin meets with all the SC churches and pastors and sets up a couple Christian town halls with SC and RP between now and the primary.

[GunnyFreedom]

Who wants to help set up a Chuck Baldwin for Ron Paul grassroots tour through the Bible Belt during the elections? prioritized by delegate count.

[Steppenwolf6]

Mike M39,just curious:
Are you with Mitt or with Newt?

Ron Paul potentially could have a much broader appeal than Huckabee,you republicrat dummy.


AND he already has the general,national,between republicans numbers that Huckabee had at that point,if not slightly higher(11-12%).

AND is slightly higher than Huckabee was at that point in time,beginning of December 2007,in IOWA!
Mittocrat-Newtocrat loser.

[GeorgiaAvenger]

Who wants to help set up a Chuck Baldwin for Ron Paul grassroots tour through the Bible Belt during the elections? prioritized by delegate count.

Well keep in mind he probably has a busy schedule-he is running for Lt. Gov of Montana.

[MikeM39]

Mike M39,just curious:
Are you with Mitt or with Newt?

Ron Paul potentially could have a much broader appeal than Huckabee,you republicrat dummy.


AND he already has the general,national,between republicans numbers that Huckabee had at that point,if not slightly higher(11-12%).

AND is slightly higher than Huckabee was at that point in time,beginning of December 2007,in IOWA!
Mittocrat-Newtocrat loser.

Huckabee did extremely well in 2008 and he won many states, right now we can only hope Paul will achieve such numbers.

[Steppenwolf6]

I like to WIN,not "do ok like Huckabee."
..and then lose( and that to you ...would be wonderful ,a miracle?)

For now that's all i care about,the realistic possibilities and ways of WINNING and how.
we have a chance ,let's play it.

And i would LOVE his supporters,here,like most of the other ones above you in the thread with the Chuck Badwin excellent idea, to help him OPEN a possible path to win,not close it or contribuite to make it "impossible" in people minds.
That would be working for the establishment,not for Ron Paul.

[Number19]

When it comes to delegates, I think Dr. Paul has a very good chance. Consider this - California has 172 delegates, Texas has 149 thats 321 delegates out of the roughly 1300 needed to win the nomination. Almost 1/4 the required amount. I am from California and I feel like there is a lot of support around here for him. Here is a link to an estimate of the delegate breakdown:Texas is not winner take all this election year. Delegates will be proportional to the vote totals.

[Number19]

Within the context of a conversation which was not about RP, on Hannity about 45 minutes ago, the guest mentioned that he would not be surprised if Ron Paul took second in Ohio. If we're that strong in early December, we may have an opportunity to take Ohio.

[parocks]

I can't speak for other states, but we have a good thing going in Maine right now. Our grassroots has been organized for about a year now. Once it was looking like a real possibility that Ron would be back, we got together, having a structure with coordinators, State, district, and county. And now the campaign has sent us a group of strong individuals to lead up here. The combination of both gives me much optimism.

The only other candidate who had any real grassroots here was Herman Cain and since he's bowed out, they've all scattered. No other campaign has a presence here, although Ann Romney has been here a time or two campaigning for her husband.

Agree with Maine. Was at an official event in Maine yesterday. There were a lot of people there. I was definitely impressed by the quality of the Ron Paul people from out of state, and the quality of the locals. I live in Maine, but I don't really know anybody here, especially in the world of politics. The locals all seem to be smart and have great local political experience.

[anaconda]

Honestly, I think we'll do well everywhere that isn't the South (NC, SC, Florida, Georgia, etc...)

Didn't Ron do quite well in Louisiana last time?

Update: sounds like things were a little fishy in Louisiana in 2008


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Republican_caucuses,_2008

[brendan.orourke]

Within the context of a conversation which was not about RP, on Hannity about 45 minutes ago, the guest mentioned that he would not be surprised if Ron Paul took second in Ohio. If we're that strong in early December, we may have an opportunity to take Ohio.I'm doing all I can to assure this!

[milo10]

I really feel that for Ron to have a clear path to win this, Newt has to be knocked back down. We have to be the anti-Romney candidate. There's not room for two.

Herman Cain was leading the polls for about 2 months (with Sept 24 win in Florida straw poll). That is from someone who wasn't certain the U.S. supported the rebels in Libya, didn't know what neonconservative meant, had multiple sexual scandals, a questionable business past, constant flip flops, anger issues, showed a marked lack of knowledge in answering questions (typically either 9-9-9 or "I can't make a decision until I have all the facts at my disposal"), and so forth.

We really need to push along Newt's descent. Share the campaign's excellent video, join http://www.facebook.com/NOtoNewtGingrich, and keep your eyes open for any other anti-Newt efforts or opportunities to destroy him. For those who like to call into radio stations, I tend to think that unless you are really good at debating neocon hosts who have the advantage of controlling the call, don't even bring up Ron Paul, but lay into Newt hard with a broad array of facts: http://www.notonewt.com/ Socially, I spend more time bashing Newt now than I do plugging Ron Paul. They'll come to Ron later...I want to get the word out now that Newt is total scum. His record makes that easy.

We can beat Romney. We will have a much toughter time beating the media narrative of a moderate Romney vs conservative Newt. I think the campaign realizes this as well, as their anti-Newt ad was frankly their most impressive production.

Just my opinion.

[JasonM]

Correct, he's not as strong as Huckabee because Huckabee appealed to the poor Evangelicals which Paul does not.

Right now, these evangelicals don't have anyone they can really rally behind so their vote is fractured. They just don't seem to like Bachman or Perry or Huntsman for some reason. But the reason these poor evangelicals don't vote Paul is because many of them foolishly buy the neocon war propaganda and only seem to care about having a statist ban on abortion and gay rights and resisting gun control. Right now, non of those issues are on peoples' minds.

[eleganz]

NH is starting to look possible now...

[LibertyDreckman]

New Hampshire as well. If Ron takes Iowa and New Hampshire, then many, many, many more states are very possible.

[Unknown.User]

Win Iowa --> 1st or 2nd in NH (Gringrich becomes irrelevant) --> Win SC (Romney becomes irrelevant) --> Nomination

[Shane Harris]

if we win 3 out of the first five then things are looking freaking awesome

[JasonM]

if we win 3 out of the first five then things are looking freaking awesome

Don't forget all the caucus states in between NH and super tuesday. We could really clean up in those states and demonstrate that we are a bone-fide front runner. Kinda hard to spin a first place win in multiple states with real delegates.

Unfortunately I reside in Missouri, where the Primary is just a beauty contest and the real game is in winning the delegates to vote for RP. Since I happen to be stationed elsewhere, I will be unable to be a delegate or get one of our guys in as a delegate. Regardless, I made it a point to register for an absentee ballot and anticipate receiving my ballot in a couple weeks.

[PauliticsPolitics]

again:
http://technorati.com/politics/article/year-of-the-caucuses-ron-pauls/#ixzz1fuCoqBDL

[kusok]

This thread makes me want to donate to those NH volunteers.

I donated to them once, what is their website? it was in one of the threads today.

[Unknown.User]

This thread makes me want to donate to those NH volunteers.

I donated to them once, what is their website? it was in one of the threads today.


https://secure.piryx.com/donate/Hz2uoGvR/NH-FTW-PAC/

[jasonxe]

califorina?

[gerryb]

Everything after SC and FL, and before super tuesday.

They are all states we are strong in, and with phone from home we will have the data to win them, just as has been done for iowa(crossing fingers). Winning Iowa will give us a bump in all of those states as well, but even without that bump, RP can be competitive.

After those states.. it comes down to Super Tuesday, which doesn't look good unless we get a bump from all of the previous good results. After Super Tuesday can pick up a lot of delegates in California.

With the states leading up to super tuesday getting the same results as iowa or better + California + picking up a few super tuesday delegates, it almost guarantee's a brokered convention. Do you ever wonder why they were pushing the Ron vs. Rand duel deciding which one was going to run back in January?

[Omnica]

I happen to be stationed elsewhere. Regardless, I made it a point to register for an absentee ballot and anticipate receiving my ballot in a couple weeks.
You mean you are planning to vote without going to the local voting booth??!! That is unethical, according to Mr. Bunting, of the recent Florida straw poll.

[JasonM]

This is how we are doing. Doesn't look very positive if you ask me. It's like Gingrich is set to sweep all the other races regardless of how he does in Iowa and NH. Of course, all these polls are subject to change in a week's time anyways, but still, it looks like Gingrich is cleaning house in these other races even though he practically has no campaign going on to speak of.

Meanwhile, Paul's support in these other states look like they are at 2008 levels. So yea, lots of work to do.

(13 Dec) Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Insider Advantage Gingrich 27, Romney 12, Paul 17, Perry 13, Bachmann 10, Santorum 7, Huntsman 4, Cain Gingrich +10
(13 Dec)Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus PPP (D) Gingrich 22, Romney 16, Paul 21, Perry 9, Bachmann 11, Santorum 8, Huntsman 5, Cain Gingrich +1

(13 Dec) New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Rasmussen Reports Romney 33, Gingrich 22, Paul 18, Huntsman 10, Bachmann 3, Perry 3, Santorum 3, Cain Romney +11
(13 Dec) New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Insider Advantage Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 21, Huntsman 11, Bachmann 4, Perry 1, Santorum 2, Cain Romney +5

(13 Dec) Virginia Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Gingrich 41, Romney 15, Cain , Perry 8, Bachmann 8, Paul 6, Santorum 6, Huntsman 3 Gingrich +26

(11 Dec) South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary NBC News/Marist Gingrich 42, Romney 23, Perry 7, Paul 9, Bachmann 7, Cain , Santorum 2, Huntsman 3 Gingrich +19

(11 Dec) Florida Republican Presidential Primary NBC News/Marist Gingrich 44, Romney 29, Paul 8, Perry 4, Bachmann 3, Huntsman 3, Santorum 2, Cain Gingrich +15

(09 Dec) Georgia Republican Presidential Primary Insider Advantage Gingrich 54, Romney 12, Cain , Paul 6, Bachmann 4, Perry 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2 Gingrich +42
(09 Dec) Georgia Republican Presidential Primary SurveyUSA Gingrich 65, Romney 12, Cain , Paul 5, Bachmann 5, Perry 4, Huntsman 1, Santorum 1 Gingrich +53

(08 Dec) Florida Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Gingrich 35, Romney 22, Paul 8, Perry 4, Bachmann 4, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2, Cain 8 Gingrich +13
(08 Dec) Florida Republican Presidential Primary SurveyUSA Gingrich 45, Romney 23, Paul 4, Perry 5, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 3, Santorum 2, Cain Gingrich +22

(08 Dec) Ohio Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Gingrich 36, Cain 7, Romney 18, Paul 7, Bachmann 5, Perry 4, Santorum 2, Huntsman 1 Gingrich +18

[bluesc]

This is how we are doing. Doesn't look very positive if you ask me. It's like Gingrich is set to sweep all the other races regardless of how he does in Iowa and NH. Of course, all these polls are subject to change in a week's time anyways, but still, it looks like Gingrich is cleaning house in these other races even though he practically has no campaign going on to speak of.

Newt will not be the nominee, you can take that to the bank.

The only polling that matters is Iowa, and NH to a lesser extent.

[mwkaufman]

Paul has to root for a crowded field to lead to wins in the first three contests. After gathering the momentum, he needs the race to be painted as the Texas conservative versus the Northeast moderate. A lot hinges on winning a state where Paul is only polling at 9% and in third place, but four years ago today, McCain was at 10% and in fifth place in South Carolina.

[JasonM]

Newt will not be the nominee, you can take that to the bank.

The only polling that matters is Iowa, and NH to a lesser extent.

Indeed. Unfortunately, if the people going for Gingrich in these polls really believe in big government conservatism, then all that "soft support" will end up winding back into Romney's lap instead.

It's like half of the Republican base that votes in these primaries don't even care about small government in practice, it's just a nice idea they talk about to dupe that wing of the party, but then forget about it once election season is over or unless they don't control the house.

No wonder both sides are so deadlocked in partisan-ship! Neither side is actually really living up to their own ideals!! I mean Clinton passing NAFTA was just a big slap in the face for the manufacturing industry and to unions which opposed this bill. You you know the liberals are getting equally screwed too.

[realtonygoodwin]

We have a great opportunity in Virginia now.

[Dsylexic]

look at this thread! it begins with people worrying about Newt.and here we are today with newt imploding.he cant even tie his own shoe laces for godssake.
and paul is doing his slow and steay+peak at right time thing.

[Anti Federalist]

Rotten polling from southern and midwestern states.

I hear a lot of people complain about NH and the strong second behind Romney we are showing, since they seem to think that NH should be showing first by a long shot, wisecracks about the 'Live Free or Die" state usually follow.

Shit...

What's the matter with you people down south, huh?

Heat bake yer brains or something?

WTF?

[Freedom Patriot]

Everyone keep up the pressure. I hope everyone has a lovely time discussing Ron Paul with their families over Christmas.

[No Free Beer]

Assuming a win in Iowa, I don't see how RP would be able to do much better than Huckabee unless the fight between Romney and Gingrich is close and inconclusive and RP manages to get a big enough percentage of delegates to force an open and brokered convention.

But even in this scenario, what would stop Romney and Gingrich from making a deal with each other to put each other on the ticket, with Gingrich settling for the VP slot? I'm sure RP would refuse a VP slot from either one of those two given how liberal both of them are (which is why I think even the brokered convention scenario bodes poorly for Paul).

I don't think an Iowa win will be a game changer any more than a Huckabee win was a game changer except for causing Romney to lose to McCain in the end.

For someone who has been on this forum since 2007, I am honestly disappointed with what you wrote.

Ron's message is much more open for others to grab on to. Huckabee only had christian voters. Ron fills a wide range of dissatisfied voters. IF Ron can win Iowa, I think he can pressure Romney in NH. With a good performance in NH, he could actually win SC and Nevada...that would change everything.

[abstrusezincate]

The key to the whole thing will probably be the late primaries in traditionally blue states. If Paul has a path to the nomination, it'll be because the campaign brings over many non-traditional Republicans and independents, where eligible, to win some of these. California is a great example.

I'm sure someone with more time can work out the specifics but a winning strategy includes:

1) Win as many caucus delegates as humanly possible.

2) Win primaries in Blue Republican states.

3) Ensure you have delegates in every state.

And I think you want a three way race down to the wire. This can't be controlled, obviously, but when the late primaries become winner take all races, it'll be much easier for Ron to beat out Newt and Mitt 40-30-30 than to have to win a clear majority. But, a plurality win in some primaries will be worth a boatload of delegates, and you'll need them to beat the party appointed super delegates.

[Crickett]

We have darn good shots in Louisiana and NV, IMO and a great chance at 2nd in NH..

[Sublyminal]

We have darn good shots in Louisiana and NV, IMO and a great chance at 2nd in NH..

If the signage is to be believed, there is a damn good shot of him taking VA. In the Hampton Roads area I'm seeing a lot of Ron Paul signs, and I constantly get beeped at while I'm driving.

[GunnyFreedom]

The key to the whole thing will probably be the late primaries in traditionally blue states. If Paul has a path to the nomination, it'll be because the campaign brings over many non-traditional Republicans and independents, where eligible, to win some of these. California is a great example.

I'm sure someone with more time can work out the specifics but a winning strategy includes:

1) Win as many caucus delegates as humanly possible.

2) Win primaries in Blue Republican states.

3) Ensure you have delegates in every state.

And I think you want a three way race down to the wire. This can't be controlled, obviously, but when the late primaries become winner take all races, it'll be much easier for Ron to beat out Newt and Mitt 40-30-30 than to have to win a clear majority. But, a plurality win in some primaries will be worth a boatload of delegates, and you'll need them to beat the party appointed super delegates.

Paul is polling in the dumpster in NC, but we can win here with Blue Republicans because of Amendment 1 in the Primary. We have a chance here to make serious history on May 8th. If I wasn't in a primary election myself I would totally coordinate this. It could leave a mark on NC even bigger (to our state) than a Paul victory in November would do for the US. It could help alter the character of the NC GOP and Republican electorate towards strict construction constitutionalism for the next 70 years...a shift similar to but far more dramatic than Goldwater-Reagan 1, but active at the NC State level. We are talking about massive century-level shifts in the balance of power. NC should be one of the Blue Republican's biggest efforts. Here is where they can make real history.

[Paul4Prez]

Ron Paul's second place finishes in 2008:

Nevada
Montana
Pennsylvania
Indiana
North Carolina
Nebraska
Oregon
Idaho
South Dakota
New Mexico

Other states where he hit double digits in 2008:

Alaska
Kansas
Maine
Minnesota
Washington
North Dakota
Iowa

States where he should do much better this time than last, by virtue of being better known, regarded as more competitive, facing weaker competition, and running a better campaign:

Texas (home state)
Kentucky (Rand's home state)
Colorado
Wyoming
New Hampshire
Arizona (no McCain)
Arkansas (no Huckabee)
California
Virginia (ballot access difficulties by competition)

He needs to win most of the above to have a shot at the nomination. A brokered convention would be extremely difficult for Ron Paul to win, unless Romney and Gingrich (or Perry) refuse to back down and accept the VP slot for the other.

[Paul4Prez]

This is how we are doing. Doesn't look very positive if you ask me. It's like Gingrich is set to sweep all the other races regardless of how he does in Iowa and NH.

But after getting clobbered in Iowa and New Hampshire, voters will abandon Newt in droves. They don't want to "waste their vote" on a guy who can't win. Romney won't pick up much support if he wins New Hampshire, because it's expected. Ron Paul could see his support explode once people realize he really does have a chance to win.

[pacu44]

The south doesn't seem to be good for Dr. Paul's campaign at all. I would think he would do better. If he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire it should help him but it remains to be seen if it will be enough for a win.

Not so sure about that... If Paul is going to win the Presidency, he needs the south... So, if you believe the south is gonna be hard, get working now...

[JasonM]

But after getting clobbered in Iowa and New Hampshire, voters will abandon Newt in droves. They don't want to "waste their vote" on a guy who can't win. Romney won't pick up much support if he wins New Hampshire, because it's expected. Ron Paul could see his support explode once people realize he really does have a chance to win.

If we surge in the 7 days between Iowa and New Hampshire, even if we only get 2nd, if it's a strong 2nd with Newt in distant 3rd place things will bode well for us.

But it's not enough to get first place, we got to knock this out of the park in Iowa. 2nd and 3rd place will matter only if we barely beat the other two bozos.

[enoch150]

I could see Gingrich virtually sweeping the Southeast, Romney taking most of the Northeast and much of the Southwest, and Paul taking large chunks of nearly every state in the Texas-Washington-Minnesota triangle, plus a bit from some Northeast states like Maine and New Hampshire, the mid-Atlantic area like Virginia and Kentucky, and a little from the Southwest, like Nevada. Maybe Perry hangs around long enough to take some delegates away from Gingrich in the Southeast.

In that scenario, Gingrich is in the lead with something like 900+ delegates, Romney 2nd with 700+, and Paul with 500+. And no one gets enough delegates to win on the first round.