Two Ron Paul Winning Scenarios

[sailingaway]

http://www.businessinsider.com/two-ron-paul-winning-scenarios-2011-12

[PauliticsPolitics]

Funny enough...
Romney getting forced to be our veep would kinda be hilarious, but at the same time frightening.

[bluesc]

When is businessinsider going to endorse Ron? There are always favorable, or at least fair articles coming from there.

[samsung1]

all the scenarios begin with Ron winning Iowa. We must win !!

[acptulsa]

Either that, or we could so storm the convention that we can not only take it but allow Ron Paul to name his own veep. We could do that. We could.

And, you know, I can almost believe him when he says the media would love a Paul vs Obama race, for the reason he mentioned. But I still say their sponsors would hate it, and they would attack mercilessly.

[bluesc]

all the scenarios begin with Ron winning Iowa. We must win !!

Indeed. People are forgetting about the final ~30% of Republican supervoters in Iowa that we haven't sent the brochure to yet.

[CaptUSA]

Guys, don't be surprised if Paul has to do something less than pure to end up with the nomination. Reagan had to pick Bush. Paul may have to pick an establishment politician to "unite" the party. We can cross that bridge when we come to it, but you might want to brace yourself.

The republican party is so fractured. You have several major wings:
The libertarian wing
The evangelical wing
The neocon warhawk wing
The Faux Tea Party wing
The business wing

Each individual crosses over these wings, but for some reason, no wing is more despised than the libertarian wing. We can see this wing is getting larger and larger out of necessity. But when we become powerful enough to select the nominee, that nominee may need to reach out to another wing to stave off a third party run and to ensure that the party can coalesce. Obviously, someone from the pro-business wing would be most desirable. And since Romney is so good at changing his views on everything else, he may be a good choice.

(Then you stick him in an undisclosed location until the next election.)

[acptulsa]

Guys, don't be surprised if Paul has to do something less than pure to end up with the nomination. Reagan had to pick Bush. Paul may have to pick an establishment politician to "unite" the party. We can cross that bridge when we come to it, but you might want to brace yourself.

Yeah, but as Reagan found out, this is an invitation to get yourself shot.

We need to swarm that convention, folks. Seriously. Get registered, get to your precincts, get to the conventions, get our delegates on the way to Florida. Please.

[CaptUSA]

Yeah, but as Reagan found out, this is an invitation to get yourself shot.Yeah, good point. This is why you pick someone from the pro-business wing and not the neocon warhawk wing. And DEFINITELY not someone from the CIA!!!

[ZanZibar]

Yeah this is very realistic.

[bluesc]

Yeah this is very realistic.

Which one are you guys anticipating?

[Legend1104]

I also agree that Dr. Paul has to win Iowa and place at least second in New Hampshire, but that is where it gets sticky. I see a number of possible scenarios that may be good or bad:

1. Gingrich wins Florida and South Carolina and establishes himself as the anti-Romney frontrunner guy. Ron paul would then lose the chance to gain that block from people that want anyone but Romney. That would make it extremely hard for Dr. Paul to win. Even if he does pick up a lot of delegates through the caucus system, I would have a hard time seeing him come out on top.

2.Gingrich wins Florida and Perry wins South Carolina with Ron Paul coming in 4th in both states. This is not the most horrible situation because I believe Dr. Paul would still get around the same number of cacus delegates and could possibly squeeze into 2nd place because Gingrich and Perry split the same type of voters, while Paul and Romney get their same usual basic core group in every state. The only problem is that if one of them drops out (Gingrich or Perry) then they would probably give each other their delegates and it would end up in the same situation as #1. Although, Paul might pick up some of those votes and be alot closer to a tie for second. If that type of siuation went into a brokered convention, that could be interesting.

3. (best but most difficult to achieve) Ron Paul wins in South Carolina. When that happens he would leap so much in the polls that he would probably be able to come in a strong second in Florida. Even if Gingrich won Florida, Ron Paul would still be in first place over all. With that kind of momentum who knows what may happen. Paul would then have two first place finishes and two second place finishes. Romney would have one first and probably three third place, and Gingrich would have one first place, one third place, and two second place. That would actually put Gingrich in second and Romney in third. We would win Nevada next and Romney would probably come in second with Gingrich third. Now: Paul:1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd Gingrich: 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and Romney: 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. The gap between Paul at the top and Gingrich/Romney next would grow even larger. We can assume that every first place finish would garner more support and the 1st and 2nd place finishes would continue to come. Romney and Gingrich would rotate between 1st and 3rd while Dr. Paul would always get either 1st or 2nd. If Gingrich dropped out, we would probably pick up most of his delegates for the win. To me, being uneducated when it comes to presidential elections, this is our best chance to win the nomination (1st Iowa, 2nd New Hampshire, 1st South Carolina, 2nd/3rd Florida, 1st Nevada).

Tell me what you guys think and please not with the sort of short "That wouldn't work" type answers. I want some real discussion on a reasonable path to victory.

[ZanZibar]

Which one are you guys anticipating?There is no way to tell.

[samsung1]

Iowa iowa iowa iowa iowa iowa! Must win!! In my opinion.

[WD-NY]

Funny enough...
Romney getting forced to be our veep would kinda be hilarious, but at the same time frightening.

(if I had to choose between candidates currently running)

Huntsman would make a far better VP imo - we'd neutralize pretty much all of the 'establishment conservatives' tripping over themselves to get behind his candidacy (re: george will & friends) (if I had to choose between candidates currently running).

[opinionatedfool]

Having Romney as VP wouldn't be so bad... Ron Paul could assign him a job in the kitchen, where he could flip pancakes or something. He has a lot of experience in the flipping area.

[opinionatedfool]

I don't think we should assume the serial hypocrite will do very well. We need to continue to hammer the obvious negatives about him and I think it will start to resonate. I think Ron Paul's ads in Iowa and NH will really get the message moving in the right direction, but we need to tell anyone and everyone what a bad choice Newt Gingrich would be for a president. He would take the country into collapse.

Join me on Twitter during the debate this Saturday and tweet #LiberalNewt tweets. Link to the Newt Gingrich ad from quality Web sites so it become the number one result in Google for Newt Gingrich searches in Google (it's already number one in YouTube searches). Post links on Facebook, etc, etc.

[Indiana4Paul]

I also agree that Dr. Paul has to win Iowa and place at least second in New Hampshire, but that is where it gets sticky. I see a number of possible scenarios that may be good or bad:

1. Gingrich wins Florida and South Carolina and establishes himself as the anti-Romney frontrunner guy. Ron paul would then lose the chance to gain that block from people that want anyone but Romney. That would make it extremely hard for Dr. Paul to win. Even if he does pick up a lot of delegates through the caucus system, I would have a hard time seeing him come out on top.

I think too many are focused on being the anti-Romney. It might actually set up better to be matched up 1-1 with Gingrich, given the number of establishment Republicans who have come out strongly against the man.

As long as Paul wins Iowa, I wouldn't mind seeing Gingrich take NH, SC and FL, knock Romney out of the race and set up a Gingrich v. Paul run to Super Tuesday. I think we could see Gingrich implode at that point while Paul enjoys some help from establishment Republicans who line up behind some integrity in an effort to save the party.

[milo10]

I also agree that Dr. Paul has to win Iowa and place at least second in New Hampshire, but that is where it gets sticky. I see a number of possible scenarios that may be good or bad:

1. Gingrich wins Florida and South Carolina and establishes himself as the anti-Romney frontrunner guy. Ron paul would then lose the chance to gain that block from people that want anyone but Romney. That would make it extremely hard for Dr. Paul to win. Even if he does pick up a lot of delegates through the caucus system, I would have a hard time seeing him come out on top.

2.Gingrich wins Florida and Perry wins South Carolina with Ron Paul coming in 4th in both states. This is not the most horrible situation because I believe Dr. Paul would still get around the same number of cacus delegates and could possibly squeeze into 2nd place because Gingrich and Perry split the same type of voters, while Paul and Romney get their same usual basic core group in every state. The only problem is that if one of them drops out (Gingrich or Perry) then they would probably give each other their delegates and it would end up in the same situation as #1. Although, Paul might pick up some of those votes and be alot closer to a tie for second. If that type of siuation went into a brokered convention, that could be interesting.

3. (best but most difficult to achieve) Ron Paul wins in South Carolina. When that happens he would leap so much in the polls that he would probably be able to come in a strong second in Florida. Even if Gingrich won Florida, Ron Paul would still be in first place over all. With that kind of momentum who knows what may happen. Paul would then have two first place finishes and two second place finishes. Romney would have one first and probably three third place, and Gingrich would have one first place, one third place, and two second place. That would actually put Gingrich in second and Romney in third. We would win Nevada next and Romney would probably come in second with Gingrich third. Now: Paul:1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd Gingrich: 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and Romney: 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd. The gap between Paul at the top and Gingrich/Romney next would grow even larger. We can assume that every first place finish would garner more support and the 1st and 2nd place finishes would continue to come. Romney and Gingrich would rotate between 1st and 3rd while Dr. Paul would always get either 1st or 2nd. If Gingrich dropped out, we would probably pick up most of his delegates for the win. To me, being uneducated when it comes to presidential elections, this is our best chance to win the nomination (1st Iowa, 2nd New Hampshire, 1st South Carolina, 2nd/3rd Florida, 1st Nevada).

Tell me what you guys think and please not with the sort of short "That wouldn't work" type answers. I want some real discussion on a reasonable path to victory.

I personally think that Gingrich will deflate on his own. It may not be quite as fast as we like, but there is a gap between NH and SC. If Ron can get Iowa and Romney take NH, both of which seem very doable at this point, it would break his momentum as he goes into what should be a downward spiral by that point.

I am much more comfortable about a race with Romney, and Ron being seen as the only real alternative. I honestly don't completely understand the Republican party's cold hatred of Romney. I don't like him either, but he is still better than Cain or Gingrich, who they are or were so ready to embrace. In any case, in a Romney vs Ron Paul battle, I see it

Iowa - Ron
NH - Mitt
SC - Ron
Florida - Mitt (that hurts, a lot of delegates, winner takes all). Florida is an odd state with an atypical demographic (lots of retirees). It might be the last stand of Newt or even some other candidate like Bachmann or Perry. In a way, that would be good, because it would give us a clear lead.
Nevada - Ron

If we can do that, then I think we will have broken through all doubts, egg will be on the faces of all the people downplaying us, etc.. I think we'd still be a ways behind on delegates, but I also think it gets a lot easier from there on in. Expect lots of dirty tricks, but also expect these forums to be 10x more active, with a big influx of cash. The thought that he really can win will energize a lot of people, and I mean a LOT of people. Most people with libertarian ideas are not politically active...most aren't even all that political. They think all politicians suck, etc, and if they vote, they only do it defensively. Hell, most probably don't call themselves libertarians...they just want to live their lives in peace. Having a libertarian on the road to the Republican nomination is one of those "I-read-Atlas-Shrugged-but-never-thought-this-could-happen" moments. Or fill in your own example :)

I hope this site is on a good server, and the community is ready to welcome them.

[JasonM]

I think too many are focused on being the anti-Romney. It might actually set up better to be matched up 1-1 with Gingrich, given the number of establishment Republicans who have come out strongly against the man.

As long as Paul wins Iowa, I wouldn't mind seeing Gingrich take NH, SC and FL, knock Romney out of the race and set up a Gingrich v. Paul run to Super Tuesday. I think we could see Gingrich implode at that point while Paul enjoys some help from establishment Republicans who line up behind some integrity in an effort to save the party.


What makes you think that Gingrich isn't this year's John McCain, who also had a broken campaign and then came back to win the nomination? John McCain didn't win a single primary until florida, and then the media showed all these bar charts showing McCain with 50 delegates and seemingly having an overwhelming lead even though it was peanuts. Then super tuesday comes, showing mccain getting like over 600 delegates or something like that and romney with only 280 something and huck with like 50 (something along those lines).

Romney dropped, huck stays but then drops after losing subsequent races, and the one v one debates with RP vs Romney don't even allow RP a single primary first place win!

What makes you think this won't happen again with Newt? He might not have much of a campaign now, but once he starts winning campaigns like NC, colorado and Florida, then he might well run away with super tuesday and then Romney will drop out like he did last time.

In that scenario, the best we can hope for is to infiltrate the convention enough to force some significant platform changes on the national level.

[milo10]

What makes you think that Gingrich isn't this year's John McCain, who also had a broken campaign and then came back to win the nomination?

Because Newt is a maniac. Put Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Nancy Pelosi, and Janet Reno together, and you have a character about as repulsive as Newt. In terms of his record, he is the absolute worst candidate of all the nominees. Some of the biggest stories, like the $37 million paid to his think tank by the health care industry, aren't even getting much media coverage at the moment.

Now, I would frankly like Newt Gingrich to be our only opponent, and Romney to fade away. The problem is the dynamic of Romney and Gingrich together, with the MSM portraying it as Mitt the Moderate and Newt the Strong Conservative.

[milo10]

Guys, don't be surprised if Paul has to do something less than pure to end up with the nomination. Reagan had to pick Bush.

Only to get the nomination. I don't know about the delegate process and how that works, but in general we don't need to placate the Republican party in that way. Beating Obama will be a lot easier with Ron's platform than getting the Republican nomination.