No Free Beer
12-07-2011, 02:36 PM
This site is usually pretty good at predicting outcomes. They also have facts to back them up, even though it is a part of the New York Times.
Take a look:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/how-safe-is-gingrichs-lead-in-iowa/
"If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent..."
Earlier in the article, it gives us hope that Dr. Paul can pull it off, when the writer points to the 1980 Iowa caucus:
"It is important to note, however, that Mr. Gingrich’s lead is smaller than that of most candidates from past years. In the five prior cases where a candidate had a single-digit lead, he won twice but lost three times. The losses came in 1980, when Ronald Reagan lost to a better-organized candidate in George H.W. Bush..."
so, PUSH!
Take a look:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/how-safe-is-gingrichs-lead-in-iowa/
"If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent..."
Earlier in the article, it gives us hope that Dr. Paul can pull it off, when the writer points to the 1980 Iowa caucus:
"It is important to note, however, that Mr. Gingrich’s lead is smaller than that of most candidates from past years. In the five prior cases where a candidate had a single-digit lead, he won twice but lost three times. The losses came in 1980, when Ronald Reagan lost to a better-organized candidate in George H.W. Bush..."
so, PUSH!