Taking a closer look at PPP's Iowa poll crosstabs

[harikaried]

tl;dr: Ron Paul does poorly among those who care about electability more than issues, have very conservative ideology, and are older. But these people also really care about cutting government spending, which Ron Paul is really strong with his Plan to Restore America cutting $1 trillion. He's also definitely the most electable in the general election because Independents will vote for him over Obama. We need to focus on those 2 things in stump speeches on caucus night to get people to vote for Ron Paul.

There's 255 pages of full results (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_1205925.pdf) [pdf] from PPP's latest Iowa poll. I'll focus on the responses for top issues and electability and where Ron Paul does well and where we can improve.

First off, Ron Paul does really well among voters that say their top issue is foreign policy or taxes. He gets 32% and 26% of the vote respectively -- way above his overall 18% of the vote. He also polls better among those who care most about illegal immigration (23%) and social issues (19%).

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/issues-vote.png

For those who say positions are more important than electability, Ron Paul leads with 23%.

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/electability-vote.png

If we break down voters by their top issues, we can see that some issues really are their deciding factor. 80% of social issues voters care about that issue more than electability. 63% for illegal immigration, 62% for taxes, and 58% for foreign policy.

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/issues-electability.png

On the flip side, Ron Paul does rather poorly for those who care about electability more than issues. But even then, they do care about certain issues more than others. 50% of people who just want someone that can beat Obama care about government spending (significantly more than the 43% overall for this issue) and 30% care about the economy (slightly higher than the 27% overall).

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/electability-issues.png

To break this down, we'll split voters by ideology and age and look at what those groups care about. First up is ideology, and Ron Paul is weakest among those who say they are very conservative.

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/ideology-vote.png

These people really care about government spending (51% vs 43%) and social issues (14% vs 9%) and less so for jobs (18% vs 27%). Compared to average, they care more about electability (39% vs 34%) than issues (53% vs 57%).

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/ideology-issues.png http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/ideology-electability.png

Similarly, when we look at the age groups, Ron Paul does weakest among those over 65. These seniors really care about reducing the debt (54% vs 43%), and they care about electability slightly more than average (37% vs 34%).

http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/age-vote.png http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/age-issues.png http://ed.agadak.net/ia-ppp/age-electability.png

Ron Paul should be very strong in places that he is currently weak, and this is likely caused by the lack of access to information or getting news from unreliable sources. We need to focus on preparing a stump speech on caucus night to let people know that Ron Paul is the most electable candidate who also has an amazing Plan to Restore America by cutting $1 trillion of federal spending in the first year.

[Son of Detroit]

+Rep, well done.

[1836]

Problem is, foreign policy and taxes combine to make up only 7% of the electorate. So we have to find votes elsewhere...

[harikaried]

Problem is, foreign policy and taxes combine to make up only 7% of the electorate. So we have to find votes elsewhere...Right. Very conservative voters make up 40% of those polled, and they really care about cutting spending and someone that can beat Obama.

[PastaRocket848]

what this data points out to me is the wide gap between what voters SAY they care about, and the positions of those who they are "for". it shines a bright light on just how misled and/or uneducated most voters are. newt leading with 37% among people whose biggest concern is debt? seriously?

[Feeding the Abscess]

what this data points out to me is the wide gap between what voters SAY they care about, and the positions of those who they are "for". it shines a bright light on just how misled and/or uneducated most voters are. newt leading with 37% among people whose biggest concern is debt? seriously?

He was the Speaker of the House the last time we had a balanced budget, that's what most people remember and know about him.

[rp08orbust]

Bump, rep++

[IndianaPolitico]

So keep on hammering the Restore America Plan. Hopefully they run the "Plan" ad, as well as the "Big Dog" ad in the coming weeks. Heard they will run 53,000 dollars worth of radio ads about it as well.

[Carole]

He was the Speaker of the House the last time we had a balanced budget, that's what most people remember and know about him.

The voters seem to have heard this little often repeated phrase and totally blocked out the rest.

[FreeTraveler]

"For those who say positions are more important than electability, Ron Paul leads with 23%."

"On the flip side, Ron Paul does rather poorly for those who care about electability more than issues."

We need to push the poll that showed Ron Paul the most electible in Iowa, and the poll that showed Ron Paul gets more independents and dems than anyone else. Educate the voters and their "not electable" concern evaporates.

[rich34]

So no wonder we got that new ad "Big Dog" to target those voters.

[Cap'n Crunk]

"For those who say positions are more important than electability, Ron Paul leads with 23%."

"On the flip side, Ron Paul does rather poorly for those who care about electability more than issues."

We need to push the poll that showed Ron Paul the most electible in Iowa, and the poll that showed Ron Paul gets more independents and dems than anyone else. Educate the voters and their "not electable" concern evaporates.

I 100% agree. The campaign needs to come out with an ad in Iowa that shows that poll. This is probably the most important ad they can run.

[harikaried]

newt leading with 37% among people whose biggest concern is debt? seriously?Nah. The really surprising crosstabs are..

Among those who say they are majorly concerned about a candidate who cheated, Gingrich is tied for second with 17%. Among those who say cheating is some concern, Gingrich is leading with 35%!

Also for those who say supporting a mandate is majorly concerning, Gingrich leads with 30%. And among who say mandates are somewhat concerning, Gingrich leads with 29%.

The campaign has done its research.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jzi3HBCS2M

[CaptainAmerica]

Ironic that people care about social issues more than war.

[BUSHLIED]

I think it is worth a shot. The polls was full of good information.

But my sense is that these faux "tea-party voters" are really the stereotypical republican voter. I don't really think they are "reachable." They are typically older, less educated, watch fox news, less worldly etc...aka the sheep. They have a different worldview then the typical Ron Paul supporter and at this present time not worth the efforts. It's not that they don't understand Ron's message, they disagree and I doubt they are to change in 4 weeks. It all about Foreign Policy IMHO...they might like Ron's economic policies and think he is the most fiscal conservative but they think he is weak on national defense and that is the deal-breaker....anyway that is just my sense. Hard to tease out who you can win over on the spending issue if they disagree with the FP...

[harikaried]

We need to push the poll that showed Ron Paul the most electible in Iowa, and the poll that showed Ron Paul gets more independents and dems than anyone else. Educate the voters and their "not electable" concern evaporates.The ad would need to convince the viewer that the poll results are valid as well. In my stump speech, I focus on the economy and how Independents like that plan, so that's why they vote for Ron Paul over Obama.

[TomtheTinker]

Ron Paul needs to come out with ad ad about ELECTABILITY...the camp must know this???????