Irish Bookmaker Odds to Win Iowa: Gingrich 8-15, Paul 10-3, Romney 4-1

[samsung1]

http://sunshinestatenews.com/blog/irish-bookmakers-makes-gingrich-odds-favorite-iowa

[cdc482]

DAMN! Gingrich is that big a shoe-in?!

At least Paul has a good lead over Romney, but holy hell, Gingrich is twice as likely to win as anyone else!!

[cdc482]

http://sunshinestatenews.com/blog/irish-bookmakers-makes-gingrich-odds-favorite-iowa


That really sucks. We've been working hard in Iowa for months, and Gingrich comes in last second to steal all the glory.

[RonPaulCult]

That really sucks. We've been working hard in Iowa for months, and Gingrich comes in last second to steal all the glory.

Hey won't steal anything. He has no ground organization. We're going to beat him. I'm much more worried about Romney and Bachmann.

[sailingaway]

The Irish don't understand the caucus system.

Intrade is creeping up cautiously, now putting Ron's chance to win the GOP nomination at 6.1%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

[anewvoice]

The Irish don't understand the caucus system.

Intrade is creeping up cautiously, now putting Ron's chance to win the GOP nomination at 6.1%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

Part of me really wants to short Gingrich (assuming it allows it) and turn around the profits into more donations!

[Ireland4Liberty]

The Irish don't understand the caucus system.

Intrade is creeping up cautiously, now putting Ron's chance to win the GOP nomination at 6.1%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

I can confirm this ;) They dont factor in the determination of Ron Pauls legion of fans who will show up and caucus.

[samsung1]

The x-factor is the college kids and how many democcrats/independent voters will show up.we can beat the odds if those kids show up like they did for Obama

[Steppenwolf6]

Bookmakers are certainly NOT oracles.
They were giving Bachmann favorite in Iowa 2 months ago,then Perry,then Cain only 10 days ago!

(Paul is AHEAD of Romney to them anyway NOT "tied" as Fox presents them in Iowa.
That's NOT bad at all)

Point is:
They are far from oracles.

Fun factoid:
Greece ,champion of soccer euro cup 2004 was given 100/1 at the beginning of it,DEAD LAST between the 16 participating teams.

[69360]

I don't believe in Irish bookmakers or Intrade.

Personally I look at the legitimate polls taken without an agenda like the DMR poll and add about 5 points to Ron's results for better organization and turnout out. So that said we are close but not quite winning yet.

[LibertyEagle]

Phone-from-home. Be the push that we need to help Ron win.

[specsaregood]

Bookmakers are certainly NOT oracles.

Right, they just adjust the lines in whatever way maximizes their profit.

[PastaRocket848]

caucuses are extremely unpredictable. we just have to hope those kids make it back to school in time to vote. newt is FAR from a "shoe in". i'm pretty sure he'll come away from Iowa feeling very, very deflated, and his poll numbers in other states will follow.

[LeJimster]

I want to bet against Gingrich. If I had any money that is.

[Steppenwolf6]

Can we put some cash on Ron Paul from the US?

[samsung1]

Bookmakers are certainly NOT oracles.
They were giving Bachmann favorite in Iowa,then Perry,then Cain only 2 weeks ago.
Paul is AHEAD of Romney to them anyway NOT "tied" as Fox presents them in Iowa.

Point is:
They are far from oracles.

Fun factoid:
Greece ,champion of soccer euro cup 2000 was given 100/1 at the beginning of it,DEAD LAST between the 16 participating teams.

Vegas usually gets it right... not all the time but most. If the bookies are always wrong then how are they still in business? They usuall have the inside track or info. We have another 2 weeks or soo to push hard and beat the odds

[samsung1]

Bookmakers are certainly NOT oracles.
They were giving Bachmann favorite in Iowa,then Perry,then Cain only 2 weeks ago.
Paul is AHEAD of Romney to them anyway NOT "tied" as Fox presents them in Iowa.

Point is:
They are far from oracles.

Fun factoid:
Greece ,champion of soccer euro cup 2000 was given 100/1 at the beginning of it,DEAD LAST between the 16 participating teams.

Vegas usually gets it right... not all the time but most. If the bookies are always wrong then how are they still in business? They usually have the inside track or info. We have another 2 weeks or soo to push hard and beat the odds

[Steppenwolf6]

?
So they were automatically right when they had Bachmann,Perry ,Romney,Cain as favorites in Iowa?
That whole point just ..instantly contradicts itself.

Is not that they are "wrong" it's just that there are still weeks to go and they don't really know,they just go with the common,safe perception.
That way they get it right SOME times,period.

One month to go,we are in a good position.

And what "inside info" exactly?
Some pundit,bloggers , establishcrats and officials saying "it's probably going to be Newt,but who knows"..

Big deal.

[JohnGalt23g]

That really sucks. We've been working hard in Iowa for months, and Gingrich comes in last second to steal all the glory.

Are you kidding?

At 3-1, Ron Paul is a great buying opportunity.

Gingrich doesn't have the money or organization to maintain in Iowa.

[specsaregood]

Vegas usually gets it right... not all the time but most. If the bookies are always wrong then how are they still in business? They usually have the inside track or info. We have another 2 weeks or soo to push hard and beat the odds

Not quite. Bookies don't generally care which side wins. And they set/adjust the lines continually in order to try to keep both sides with about the same amount of money/bets. They then make their money off the vig.

[Steppenwolf6]

yes ,some people don't know that Ron Paul can actually win,tv and radio never really say "Ron Paul is favored to win in Iowa",more feel safer with the newt,so A FEW more people bet on the safer newt,simple.
Some are betting on Paul thou or he would not be second.

[samsung1]

Let's hope having an organization actually still means something.

[roughridersten]

This is the history of the Intrade market. They never had Bachman over 20% and never had Cain over 10%. That is far more accurate than the polls at the time. Perry fell pretty quick once it became obvious he couldn't debate.

http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/9699/republicannomination201.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/707/republicannomination201.png/)

None of this means Paul cannot win. It means that people are giving Ron Paul a 1/17 chance of getting the nomination. It is our job to make sure it happens.