Mitt Romney’s Math: Delegates = Nomination

[sailingaway]

http://www.knickledger.com/2011/12/mitt-romney-delegates-nominate/

just a reminder:


While never having shown signs of being the least bit frightened by previous front runners and political lightweights like Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann, Romney recently confessed to the press, “My expectation is that this campaign is going to go on for a while and I expect to win it. I need to get something over 1,000 delegates and we’re just getting started.”
And so the talk of delegate math begins.
A much under-appreciated fact of the Democratic Party primary process of 08′ was exactly how President Obama ended up winning in the first place. It was not by shear votes–former Senator Hillary Clinton ran up her vote count in states like New York, California, and Florida where she quite literally padded her popular vote by hundreds of thousands. In the end over 35 million votes were cast, President Obama only beat Clinton by a mere 46,000 votes, or .1% of the votes cast. But in delegates, which are what actually nominates a candidate to be on the ticket of a major political party, Obama defeated Clinton by more than a comfortable margin.
And such is the political reality of primaries–it is delegates, and not momentum, early state victories, or media attention, that play the most fundamental role in nominating a candidate. Through the will of people participating in the caucuses and primaries across the country, crucial delegates will be awarded. Whoever gets these delegates, gets the nomination.

[TheTexan]

One step at a time :)

Prove ourself in Iowa/NH then we can focus on Texas & CA

[bluesc]

it is delegates, and not momentum, early state victories, or media attention, that play the most fundamental role in nominating a candidate.

False. It's hard not to fade away into obscurity without early momentum. The campaign is playing the caucus strategy though, and I expect them to win Texas.

I wonder what the total number of delegates there are from caucus states..

[Philosophy_of_Politics]

I say that we get the delegates, while still maintaining our momentum. Anything they can use against us . . . overcome.

[tsai3904]

Romney's already got 14 delegates locked up:
http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list

These are the superdelegates (Chairman, Committeeman and Committeewoman of each state's GOP).

[giovannile07]

I still am unsure of how to become a delegate, can anyone explain?

[tsai3904]

I still am unsure of how to become a delegate, can anyone explain?

Each state has their own process. In CA, the campaign chooses who their delegates are and I'm not sure what the process is in MA.

[ninepointfive]

I still am unsure of how to become a delegate, can anyone explain?

The only way for Ron Paul to become President is if he gets the GOP nomination; The only way for Ron Paul to get the GOP nomination is if we become delegates. As delegates, we’ll be voting to pick the GOP nominee just like the electors in the electoral college vote to pick the President; Delegates determine and decide who the GOP nominee it’s that critical!

The links in my signature is a good place to start

[giovannile07]

Each state has their own process. In CA, the campaign chooses who their delegates are and I'm not sure what the process is in MA.
Alright, I'll be back in California when the primary happens, so I'll want to be a delegate in California rather than Massachusetts.


The only way for Ron Paul to become President is if he gets the GOP nomination; The only way for Ron Paul to get the GOP nomination is if we become delegates. As delegates, we’ll be voting to pick the GOP nominee just like the electors in the electoral college vote to pick the President; Delegates determine and decide who the GOP nominee it’s that critical!

The links in my signature is a good place to start
Alright thanks, I look into it. Yeah, I understand how crucial it is. If I still don't understand I'll probably ask the teacher that made me look into Ron Paul. Had the teacher in the summer last year for civics and he advocated Ron Paul.

[tsai3904]

Alright, I'll be back in California when the primary happens, so I'll want to be a delegate in California rather than Massachusetts.

The campaign has most likely selected all their delegates for CA. They only needed to find 338 people in CA.

[american.swan]

The campaign has most likely selected all their delegates for CA. They only needed to find 338 people in CA.

I don't think that's true. The delegates are elected through party meetings after the polls close generally. There are then county/district meetings and then state meetings. Those 338 people come from all over CA...through this process...There are all sorts of war stories about this from 2008. Get informed.

[ninepointfive]

California is a Primary state, and because of that, I fully recommend signing up at the campaign website to receive further information. Primary Delegate selection is different than a Caucus, so the campaign will be making their recommendations. http://www.ronpaul2012.com/delegate/

[DavidK]

Okay... so if it's all about delegates, then can't Mitt Romney just use his multi multi multi million dollar fortune and just buy delegates and secure the nomination right there and then? That's the impression that I'm getting, which is worrying me, because if that is the case then Romney will win this simply because of his money and not even voters.

[ninepointfive]

Okay... so if it's all about delegates, then can't Mitt Romney just use his multi multi multi million dollar fortune and just buy delegates and secure the nomination right there and then? That's the impression that I'm getting, which is worrying me, because if that is the case then Romney will win this simply because of his money and not even voters.

Depends if the primary state is winner take all, and if delegates in a particular state are bound, or unbound to the poplar vote.

[tsai3904]

I don't think that's true. The delegates are elected through party meetings after the polls close generally. There are then county/district meetings and then state meetings. Those 338 people come from all over CA...through this process...There are all sorts of war stories about this from 2008. Get informed.

Are you talking about CA? In CA, campaigns choose their delegates and submits a form to the CA Secretary of State. Whoever wins a certain Congressional District gets to send those delegates in that district to the National Convention.

[DavidK]

I think this electoral stuff needs to get abolished, sounds so corrupt to me. I think it should just come down to popular vote, end of story.

[puppetmaster]

I think this electoral stuff needs to get abolished, sounds so corrupt to me. I think it should just come down to popular vote, end of story.

not that simple.......

[ninepointfive]

I think this electoral stuff needs to get abolished, sounds so corrupt to me. I think it should just come down to popular vote, end of story.

Makes sense, but then again if we have a popular vote only, we become a democracy by mob rule, and not a republic through representation.

[BUSHLIED]

False. It's hard not to fade away into obscurity without early momentum. The campaign is playing the caucus strategy though, and I expect them to win Texas.

I wonder what the total number of delegates there are from caucus states..

If Ron were win to all delegates from the caucus states, he would have about 42% of the total delegates needed to win the nomination but 21% of total delegates possible. Therefore, Ron could theoretically win all caucus delegates and he still would have a hard time getting the nomination and further wouldn't be able to force a convention.

Obviously, to win, you need more than just caucus victories, you need to win several large state primaries...that's the cold hard truth. The top 7 largest states account for 705 delegates or 31% of all delegates and 61% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. And they are all Primaries.

After the voting on Super Tuesday, which is March 6th, roughly 900 delegates would have been proportionally awarded. This accounts for about 79% of delegates needed to win the nomination and about 39% of all delegates.

However, perhaps what you are getting as is this:

If Ron were to win all caucuses by the end of Super Tuesday (March 6th) he would have about 286 delegates which would account for roughly 32% or 1/3 of the delegates awarded up to that point in the process. BUT that's a hypothetical, because all the contest before April are proportionally allocate delegates and we have to assume that Ron would only get a proportion of those delegates.

Therefore, the path to victory for any candidate is to win in both primaries and caucuses. The campaign while focusing on the caucus states, which is Paul's strength, must have a plan for the Primary States going into Super Tuesday BUT more importantly a plan for the winner take all primary states in April and beyond.

IF a candidate is able to go into April with 422 delegates all they would have to win is: California, New York, Penn, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, New Jersey, Indiana, and Wisconsin...

Anyway, there are roughly 1,011 delegates available for the winner-take-all primary states, no caucuses..only primaries. The more delegates Ron can accumulate prior to April the better shape he will be in going into the winner-take-all states. Arguably, PA is the most important WTA primary state for Ron. For me, it's his bellwether state...if he were to go into April with like 300-400 delegates and lose PA, I think he would be done. He would be done because I think Ron's best large WTA primary state is PA and if he can't win in PA, I just can't see him winning the other states..

You got to love the armchair analysis...winning Iowa would be a start and that is going to be difficult...

Anyway, I am already a delegate for Ron but I don't expect him to win any of the mid-Atlantic states...it's just that they are all too close to the beltway.

[McDermit]

If Ron were win to all delegates from the caucus states, he would have about 42% of the total delegates needed to win the nomination but 21% of total delegates possible. Therefore, Ron could theoretically win all caucus delegates and he still would have a hard time getting the nomination and further wouldn't be able to force a convention.

Obviously, to win, you need more than just caucus victories, you need to win several large state primaries...that's the cold hard truth. The top 7 largest states account for 705 delegates or 31% of all delegates and 61% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

After the voting on Super Tuesday, which is March 6th, roughly 900 delegates would have been proportionally awarded. This accounts for about 79% of delegates needed to win the nomination and about 39% of all delegates.

However, perhaps what you are getting as is this:

If Ron were to win all caucuses by the end of Super Tuesday (March 6th) he would have about 286 delegates which would account for roughly 32% or 1/3 of the delegates awarded up to that point in the process. BUT that's a hypothetical, because all the contest before April are proportionally allocate delegates and we have to assume that Ron would only get a proportion of those delegates.

Therefore, the path to victory for any candidate is to win in both primaries and caucuses. The campaign while focusing on the caucus states, which is Paul's strength, must have a plan for the Primary States going into Super Tuesday BUT more importantly a plan for the winner take all primary states in April and beyond.

IF a candidate is able to go into April with 422 delegates all they would have to win is: California, New York, Penn, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, New Jersey, Indiana, and Wisconsin...

Anyway, there are roughly 1,011 delegates available for the winner-take-all primary states, no caucuses..only primaries. The more delegates Ron can accumulate prior to April the better shape he will be in going into the winner-take-all states. Arguably, PA is the most important WTA primary state for Ron. For me, it's his bellwether state...if he were to go into April with like 300-400 delegates and lose PA, I think he would be done. He would be done because I think Ron's best large WTA primary state is PA and if he can't win in PA, I just can't see him winning the other states..

You got to love the armchair analysis...winning Iowa would be a start and that is going to be difficult...

Anyway, I am already a delegate for Ron but I don't expect him to win any of the mid-Atlantic states...Uhm.

PA's delegates are unbound. Ron winning PA is irrelevant; we need to get our Ron Paul delegates elected, then they can vote their consciences in Tampa. We're not winner take all, not at all.

[DavidK]

Makes sense, but then again if we have a popular vote only, we become a democracy by mob rule, and not a republic through representation.

The Republic through representation is working out real well for us isn't it? My point is, I believe in a representative government, but the majority of the people that are "representing us" are destroying our country. In that case.. I guess the best thing we can do is just keep on trying to get the best people we can into office and just hope that one day our "representation" isn't in it for the money, but for a bright future for its citizens.

[BUSHLIED]

Uhm.

PA's delegates are unbound. Ron winning PA is irrelevant; we need to get our Ron Paul delegates elected, then they can vote their consciences in Tampa. We're not winner take all, not at all.

Correct but what I am saying is that not all WTA states have unbound delegates...I referring to the popular vote that is necessary for other states...such as New York.

[McDermit]

Correct but what I am saying is that not all WTA states have unbound delegates...I referring to the popular vote that is necessary for other states...such as New York.You lost me. You clearly referred to PA as the most important WTA state.

Anyway, Ron took 16% statewide 4 years ago in PA, and that was AFTER McCain had been annointed, and many of Ron's supporters had already given up and stopped participating in local activism. Some of our core activists were too discouraged to even bother to vote. And locally, so sooooo many people have come around to support Ron. They love Rand, and they think Ron is making a lot of sense. He really has caught on here. I'm not sure what the climate is in Philly or Pitt, but NEPA is quickly becoming Ron Paul Country (including the cities of NEPA, not just the backwoods.)

[speciallyblend]

we keep placing 1st,top 2 or top 3 and we have a strong chance to win at convention romney vs ron paul vs newt = ron paul win at convention. we have until convention to expose the biggovgop newt and romney! Ron Paul vs Status Quo. We want to win iowa and place top 2 in NH but remember we can win this at convention placing top 3 thru out. At the end romney and newt should be damaged goods!! NO ONE BUT PAUL, Ron Paul 2012

[Sean]

The way to the nomination is for Ron Paul to win early. A few wins and Ron Paul will rocket up the polls. I am concerned about South Carolina though. I think he needs to put in some ads there to build a bigger base. Right now he is so low there that momentum from Iowa and New Hamshire might not be enough. Doing well in South Carolina will translate to doing well in Florida.

Jan 3 Iowa -Needs a win
Jan 10 New Hampshire -Needs to come in close second or win
Jan 21 South Carolina -Will get a huge bump from a win in Iowa and doing well in NH. Needs to put more resource here though to build a base for his bump.
Jan Louisiana - winnable needs to put some resources in it
Jan 31 Florida - Will do better than he polls if he wins Iowa, SC and Louisiana
Feb 4 Nevada-winnable but will be tough with the Mormons for Romney
Feb 4-11 Maine -Can take at least second easily
Feb 7 Colorado -winnable caucus
Feb 7 Minnesota -winnable caucus
Feb 28 Michigan -probably a Romney win
Feb 28 Arizona -winnable
Mar 3 Washington -winnable

[djruden]

I think this electoral stuff needs to get abolished, sounds so corrupt to me. I think it should just come down to popular vote, end of story.

Worst idea ever... Please look into WHY we have the electoral college in the first place.

[Okie RP fan]

So, Oklahoma is a closed primary state. And I haven't held, and do not hold any sort of political office. Can I and should I apply to become a delegate?

[Student Of Paulism]

Worst idea ever... Please look into WHY we have the electoral college in the first place.

Eh i dunno. I kind of agree with things just being as basic as possible. Think of it like this. You have 11 people voting for someone. 6 vote to elect, 5 don't, and he wins. So.....everyone in the country votes for someone. He gets the majority of the vote, he wins. Simple enough? I agree with Andrew on what he means, it just seems so damn intricate and over-burdened with all this delegate, soft, unbound, bound, electors per state---makes my damn head explode. :confused: You get the majority of the popular vote, then you win, i don't see why instituting that would be such a difficult thing. Most experts say if it was done this way too, that Ron would win in a landslide.

[The Free Hornet]

Worst idea ever... Please look into WHY we have the electoral college in the first place.

The electoral college is a GREAT way to minimize the affects of local corruption or Rhode Island saying they just "found" 100,000 extra voters. I think the complaint has to do with the internals whereby the will of the voters within a state or within a given apportionment are not represented.

That said, my preference would be that we have POLL TAXES. The money for primary polls could fund the winner (but I think government ought to be out of the primary process if possible) and money from actual elections to fund the state and federal treasury. This is just a thought but it might cause people to take their selection more seriously and it is another source of income in an income-tax-free world.

[1836]

Here. I have posted on this and done "Ron Paul's Math" on him getting the nomination.

Including info on delegates and open/closed status.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-(full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis)

[Bern]

And such is the political reality of primaries–it is delegates, and not momentum, early state victories, or media attention, that play the most fundamental role in nominating a candidate.

How'd that work out for Guiliani's Florida strategy in '08? Yeah, I thought so.

[acptulsa]

One step at a time :)

I'm sorry, but no. These things must all be done, and there are deadlines which will be missed if we focus solely one one step to the exclusion of others.


I still am unsure of how to become a delegate, can anyone explain?

In Oklahoma, the delegates are selected by the party. What does that mean? You have to be some kind of insider? Sort of.

Get registere as a Republican, go to (or host, if there is no one else to do so) a precinct meeting, go to the county and district conventions, and wham, you're an insider and get to vote on delegates or even be a delegate. That's it. And we must. After all this work, it would be criminal negligence for us to lose this thing in a brokered convention.


So, Oklahoma is a closed primary state. And I haven't held, and do not hold any sort of political office. Can I and should I apply to become a delegate?

Please at least get yourself in a position to help choose the delegation, even if you don't go yourself. Get reregistered (it's not too late) and if your precinct doesn't yet have someone to host a precinct meeting next month, volunteer to do so.

That time is upon us.