How worse off are we with Cain out of the race?

[fearthereaperx]

Looks like Newt picked up a significant majority of the Cainiacs. We needed everyone polling at around or under 20% to secure a Paul first place finish in Iowa, the only guaranteed way of that happening was with Cain still pushing in the race. Alas, that is not the case, and now Newt picks up most of the Cain hold outs.

Will the attack ads work against Newt? If so, aren't Newt supporters' second choice pick in Romney? I dont see how we will be picking up any of that soft support if and when Newt peaks.

[bluesc]

Newt will go down. Bachmann picked up some of Cain's support anyway. You explained why we are worse off - less people in the field, and Ron isn't going to surge that much unless he wins Iowa.

Everyone donate and make calls to make that happen!

[tbone717]

Don't be discouraged by Newt's supposed rise in popularity. Anyone who has been on the phones with voters can tell you that his support is soft. It was the same crowd that moved from Bachmann, to Perry, to Cain and now til Newt. It is moreso, "I guess I like Newt" rather than "Newt is by far the best man for the job". Soft support doesn't run to the polls on election day en masse, and Newt does not have the organization in place to GOTV when needed. In truth his hard support is right around the 4 or 5% he was at in the polls a couple of months back. You can hear it in people's voices when they speak, and we heard the same thing the last few weeks in regards to Cain.

That being said, we cannot sit back and wait for things to happen in our favor, we need to make things happen. The three ways we can do that: donate to the campaign, volunteer to canvass in IA and NH, volunteer for Phone from Home. These three are the top priority right now, and these three will enable us to be in position to not only win but to win by a respectable margin. If you haven't yet signed up for Phone from Home - what are you waiting for?

[Original_Intent]

Eventually there can be only one...we can't depend on the neocons dividing the vote forever.

[damiengwa]

These people are not going to show up. Who will go thru hours a caucusing to support Newt. These other cadidates don't inspire any one. They will have a big problem with turnout, and Newt's ground game got a late start. It will be interesting for sure.

[tbone717]

Eventually there can be only one...we can't depend on the neocons dividing the vote forever.

I don't think we will have to. The overwhelming majority of people that will vote in the primaries and caucuses don't even know what a neocon is. They don't follow politics, they barely watch the news. People know more about the Kardashians than about Romney, Paul and Newt - and these same people will vote. As long as Paul can win IA, and come in strongly 2nd or win NH - we can prevail in this in the long haul.

[J-Reg]

Newt is clearly a big government pusher. It is too obvious for people with an ounce of sense to ignore. Ron's limited, Constitutional government platform is too good, too awesome to let Newt beat him. We just have to get the word out enough!

[Steppenwolf6]

All this small ridicoulous ,tiny calcuations are a losing platform altogether.
Sorry but i have to point this out.

This whole idea of "maybe if the others are all divided we can win many states with 25% of the votes " it's an utterly unworkable,small,sad,losing proposition.
Easy to demontrate why:
Sooner or later,if we seriously are in this to win we have to convince the 50%+1 of the republican electorate to vote for us against only one candidate:
The republicrats establishment-one.

Many of these candidates are going to drop out so soon you won't even notice,even before South Carolina and endorse the establishment-one,particularly if Ron Paul had to get some wins in N.H and Iowa..and at that point this " others eating up others votes " equation will become gradually more and more apparent to be worthless.
(And it does NOT have any true value even now!)

We WILL need absolute majority then:
51%.

It is also a small,small way to think altogether...like keeping pennies in a jar or something.

[69360]

I don't think Cain really mattered much anymore. He was a distraction at the end.

The way this race has been we really need a large newt gaffe or scandal to break in the next week or so.

[seyferjm]

How much of a "threat" is Bachmann to us in Iowa?

[69360]

How much of a "threat" is Bachmann to us in Iowa?

I think she will do ok, but not be a frontrunner. Maybe 10% or so.

[bluesc]

How much of a "threat" is Bachmann to us in Iowa?

If she is pumped up by the media? A considerable one.

[69360]

All this small ridicoulous ,tiny calcuations are a losing platform altogether.
Sorry but i have to point this out.

This whole idea of "maybe if the others are all divided we can win many states with 25% of the votes " it's an utterly unworkable,small,sad,losing proposition.
Easy to demontrate why:
Sooner or later,if we seriously are in this to win we have to convince the 50%+1 of the republican electorate to vote for us against only one candidate:
The republicrats establishment-one.

Many of these candidates are going to drop out so soon you won't even notice,even before South Carolina and endorse the establishment-one,particularly if Ron Paul had to get some wins in N.H and Iowa..and at that point this " others eating up others votes " equation will become gradually more and more apparent to be worthless.
(And it does NOT have any true value even now!)

We WILL need absolute majority then:
51%.

It is also a small,small way to think altogether...like keeping pennies in a jar or something.

Have you ever followed primary politics before? In a crowded field, you just don't get those kind of numbers.

There is very little incentive to drop out of this race. The media coverage and number of debates is intense. A candidate with no campiagn can lead in polling, witness the rise of the grinch.


If she is pumped up by the media? A considerable one.

If Bachmann is a threat, just pack it in now. She's already had her day in the sun.

[Steppenwolf6]

Have you ever followed primary politics before? In a crowded field, you just don't get those kind of numbers.

There is very little incentive to drop out of this race. The media coverage and number of debates is intense. A candidate with no campiagn can lead in polling, witness the rise of the grinch.



If Bachmann is a threat, just pack it in now. She's already had her day in the sun.

I suspect ..from before you did.
The last time i felt this good about elections was for Buchanan win in N.H.
I had some vague hopes for Perot..
I was never totally sold on Reagan.

Anyway,let's come to more recent,i suspect familiar to you grounds :
Even a very weak candidate like McCain toward the end of his primary-run won some states with over 50% of the votes.

What I am triyng to demonstrate here is that the "counting pennies falling fom this and that " is a worthless,unreliable type of campaign,just like the 'MAYBE WE CAN WIN ALL STATES WITH 20-25%!"(impossible of course )and in general is too small and negative a way of thinking.

Sooner or later we are going to have to somehow convince half of the republican electorate to jump on the train,fact.

YES we may win Iowa with 25% ..and we better do win it,prefereby with more,much more..but that theoretical" winning 25%" better turn into much higher numbers very,very soon..when the rest of the restablishcrats drop out.
After Nevada dead-line.
Fact.

[acptulsa]

We're better off.

Who cares about splitting this and spreading out that? Simple fact of the matter is, Bachmann embarrassed herself, Perry humiliated himself, Cain completely humiliated not only himself but his whole family, and Gingrich is not only embarrassing the whole party but exposing these power hungry totalitarian psychos for what they are by being, if not the worst, the most vocal of the bunch.

It isn't just that each domino makes the next fall more easily. It's that the series of dominoes is about to topple the whole rush to totalitarianism by making it plainly obvious to everyone with eyes, thanks to two things--our education efforts these last four years and their sheer obviousness.

Newt isn't just another idiot ripe for the fall at this point. He's the hot button that turns the flames of revolution into a firestorm. And that perfect ad is just the catalyst we needed to help us make sure this thing goes the right way, not the wrong way.

Seriously. They tried to push OWS as a vehicle to spur on added socialism, and despite naysayers saying we should stay away, we helped defuse that. Now we have this ad, and it's so good it's doing more to push things the other way than OWS could do to push their agenda in a hundred years.

Don't let up now, gang. It isn't about the horse race any more. It's about the perfect storm, now. I don't know about you, but I do believe I'm catching a whiff of the sweet smell of victory. So far, it smells mainly like our sweat. But it's good.

[Steppenwolf6]

We're better off.

Who cares about splitting this and spreading out that? Simple fact of the matter is, Bachmann embarrassed herself, Perry humiliated himself, Cain completely humiliated not only himself but his whole family, and Gingrich is not only embarrassing the whole party but exposing these power hungry totalitarian psychos for what they are by being, if not the worst, the most vocal of the bunch.

It isn't just that each domino makes the next fall more easily. It's that the series of dominoes is about to topple the whole rush to totalitarianism by making it plainly obvious to everyone with eyes, thanks to two things--our education efforts these last four years and their sheer obviousness.

Newt isn't just another idiot ripe for the fall at this point. He's the hot button that turns the flames of revolution into a firestorm. And that perfect ad is just the catalyst we needed to help us make sure this thing goes the right way, not the wrong way.

Seriously. They tried to push OWS as a vehicle to spur on added socialism, and despite naysayers saying we should stay away, we helped defuse that. Now we have this ad, and it's so good it's doing more to push things the other way than OWS could do to push their agenda in a hundred years.

Don't let up now, gang. It isn't about the horse race any more. It's about the perfect storm, now. I don't know about you, but I do believe I'm catching a whiff of the sweet smell of victory. So far, it smells mainly like our sweat. But it's good.

Applause.

[69360]

I suspect ..from before you did.
The last time i felt this good about elections was for Buchanan win in N.H.
I had some vague hopes for Perot..
I was never totally sold on Reagan.

Anyway,let's come to more recent,i suspect familiar to you grounds :
Even a very weak candidate like McCain toward the end of his primary-run won some states with over 50% of the votes.

What I am triyng to demonstrate here is that the "counting pennies falling fom this and that " is a worthless,unreliable type of campaign,just like the 'MAYBE WE CAN WIN ALL STATES WITH 20-25%!"(impossible of course )and in general is too small and negative a way of thinking.

Sooner or later we are going to have to somehow convince half of the republican electorate to jump on the train,fact.

YES we may win Iowa with 25% ..and we better do win it,prefereby with more,much more..but that theoretical" winning 25%" better turn into much higher numbers very,very soon..when the rest of the restablishcrats drop out.
After Nevada dead-line.
Fact.

I'm not a young kid. I was around for Reagan's election, I remember watching the returns come in in 1980. I remember Perot and his prime time charts.

It's not the 80's and 90's anymore. Things are very different now with all these debates and the intense media attention. The GOP changed the rules to proportional for all the early states. Nobody will be dropping out anytime soon, they can run a campaign online and in the media for little cash.

The strategy to accumulate a significant amount of delegates in the early proportional states is a valid one this time around. Nobody will be getting 50% in states anytime soon. This thing could go all the way to the spring or even to the convention.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I'll repeat my position that we're better off without Cain. He was sucking up too much media time. Now we have more of an open space to get our message out there, and the the MSM is actually talking about Ron Paul every day. We all know that Dr. Paul can win people over if he is allowed the time to speak. The only way they have kept him down is by keeping him in the dark, away from the TV viewers as much as possible.

[Steppenwolf6]

I'll repeat my position that we're better off without Cain. He was sucking up too much media time. Now we have more of an open space to get our message out there, and the the MSM is actually talking about Ron Paul every day. We all know that Dr. Paul can win people over if he is allowed the time to speak. The only way they have kept him down is by keeping him in the dark, away from the TV viewers as much as possible.

I very much agreee,

If I may add:
The less noise,mediatic hooplas , backflips and circuslike distractions and the more the choice and the message becomes clear and inevitable:

Ron Paul vs. republicrats crooks establishment

[Steppenwolf6]

I'm not a young kid. I was around for Reagan's election, I remember watching the returns come in in 1980. I remember Perot and his prime time charts.

It's not the 80's and 90's anymore. Things are very different now with all these debates and the intense media attention. The GOP changed the rules to proportional for all the early states. Nobody will be dropping out anytime soon, they can run a campaign online and in the media for little cash.

The strategy to accumulate a significant amount of delegates in the early proportional states is a valid one this time around. Nobody will be getting 50% in states anytime soon. This thing could go all the way to the spring or even to the convention.

yea ok..
but.. Pawlenty already dropped out.
Gary Johnson said he is thinking of giving it up.

NOW:

Bachmann,IF she does not show surprisingly well in Iowa.
Huntsmann,If he does not show surprisingly well in N.H.
Perry(sorry,you need to be capable of speaking some English to be POTUS)
Santorum(..)
they will ALL be out after Florida-Nevada or so.

Gingrich-Romney?
There is a reason they call it "establishment".
IF Ron Paul had to get some wins...the establishment will probably push one to drop and support the other.

Ron Paul VS.Establishment Republicrat.

[acptulsa]

Perry(sorry,you need to be capable of speaking some English to be POTUS)

My, how quickly Dubya has been forgotten. Like a bad dream upon waking, he just fades from the American collective consciousness...

[Steppenwolf6]

Tell you what:
Even Dubbya,sounded and looked like a moron to me but,as some MSNBC lefty journalist pointed out,even him was prepared for the debates and never really stumbled in a gross ,obviuous manner.
he was kind of lika a Romney:
" say nothing really,except generalizations quasi-conservative sounding ..but get away with it"

[acptulsa]

Tell you what,even Dubbya,sounded and looked like a moron to me,but,as some MSNBC lefty journalist pointed out,even him was prepared for the debates and never really stumbled in a gross ,obviuous manner...

I remember.

I also remember that he went to the debates with a big box hidden under his suit jacket and an earpiece in his ear.

Ask not if you find the puppet likeable. Ask who holds the strings.

[Eric21ND]

Once we take down Newt, it will only be Paul vs. Romney...do everything you can to bring him down!

[Steppenwolf6]

Once we take down Newt, it will only be Paul vs. Romney...do everything you can to bring him down!

..while not forgetting to attack Romney in N.H. where he is still clearly on top .

[Steppenwolf6]

Point of the thread:
The more they drop out the happier I am.
It clears up the fields from nobodies and nothings and it gives people some time to inform themselves,understand,decide

[Darthbrooklyn]

Fuck the polls, fuck the tv, radio, newpapers.. Lets get Iowa, and that will bring the momentum.. If we come in top 2 in Iowa and NH, Santorum, Bachmann, Hunstman are gone..

[69360]

I can't see somebody with such a flawed background and character surviving intense media scrutiny. Gingrich just won't last much longer.

[Shane Harris]

agreed. we dont get any of that soft, fox news mindless mob support that has been shoveled from one candidate to another since summer. we have to work for our support at ground level.

[Steppenwolf6]

I can't see somebody with such a flawed background and character surviving intense media scrutiny. Gingrich just won't last much longer.
He has already peaked and going slightly down as we speak.
Brit Hume,Glenn Beck and many others cannot force themselves to let him get away with the "true conservative opposed to moderate Romney" image some other media taylored for him and have been exposing him.
We are doing our big part..he is quickly landing to the ground.

[jmdrake]

Eventually there can be only one...we can't depend on the neocons dividing the vote forever.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnJt9p-sHho

[Athan]

Once we take down Newt, it will only be Paul vs. Romney...do everything you can to bring him down!
Outside of NH and NV, Romney doesn't have staying power.

[kylejack]

I know Gingrich took a lot of his supporters, but the support seems soft to me. I'm glad he's out. Now there's only one non-Mitt standing between us and the nomination.