jacmicwag
11-07-2007, 09:14 AM
Quite the timing of the Iowa GOP/Fox announcement yesterday to most likely exclude Paul/Tancredo/Hunter from the Des Moines Presidential debate. Since this debate was first publicized in late September without conditions, it is highly possible that the November 5th fund raising success played a role in this decision. Based on previous actions by Fox, the Iowa GOP, and to some extent, the Des Moines Register, the attempted exclusion is pretty much par for the course.
Since Fox will be controlling the "average" numbers of selected national polls to determine the 5% threshold, there is virtually no chance to qualify here even though Ron hit 5% on the latest CNN poll. The Des Moines Register poll, however, does represent a possible means of entry assuming the poll is administered without bias. Unfortunately, we can probably assume that Fox, the Iowa GOP and the Des Moines Register will at least indirectly pressure Selzer and Company to show Paul at less than 5% regardless of his support.
Attached is the methodology used by Selzer in their most recent Des Moines Register poll. In discussions last night with fellow Paulites, one thought was to request "observers" for the administration of the poll.
We obviously need to make a push to get Ron's numbers up the next few weeks in Iowa. At the same time, we may need to look at other options to ensure the phone poll is fairly administered and reported. Any lawyers in the crowd?
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Methodology and questions for October 2007 Iowa Poll
October 7, 2007
The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 399 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Democratic caucuses and 405 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted randomly selected voters registered as Democrat, Republican or no-party by using randomly selected telephone numbers from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list.
Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Republishing the copyrighted Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
The poll, conducted Oct.1-3, asked the following:
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for January of 2008? Will you definitely attend, probably attend or probably not attend? Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus?
Which one of the following Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president? (Among those who don’t volunteer a first choice) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or would say you support the most? And who would your second choice be?
Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton. Christopher Dodd. John Edwards. Mike Gravel. Dennis Kucinich. Barack Obama. Bill Richardson.
Which one of the following Republican candidates would be your first choice for president? (Among those who don’t volunteer a first choice) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or would say you support the most? And who would your second choice be?
Sam Brownback. John Cox. Rudy Giuliani. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter. Alan Keyes. John McCain. Ron Paul. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo. Fred Thompson.
When it comes to your support of (candidate named first choice for president), would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) I’m going to mention the field of candidates again. This time, please tell me if this is a candidate you would seriously consider, might consider if you knew more about them, or if you have ruled them out.
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) Some people wish they could combine traits from different candidates into one ideal candidate. For the following traits, please tell me which candidate has the most to offer if you were imagining an ideal candidate. Integrity. Leadership. Experience. Toughness. Intelligence. Vision. Charisma. Electability. Morality.
(Asked only of likely Democratic caucus participants) I want to turn to some of the questions people have about some of the Democratic candidates — other than the one you say is your first choice. For each concern I mention, please tell me if this is a major factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate as your first choice, a minor factor, or is not a factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate.
Barack Obama lacks experience in national and foreign affairs. Barack Obama would have a harder time getting elected because he’s an African-American.
Hillary Clinton is a polarizing figure. Hillary Clinton would have a harder time getting elected because she’s a woman.
John Edwards had his chance in the 2004 election. John Edwards’ wealthy lifestyle undermines his credibility when speaking out against poverty.
Bill Richardson would have a harder time getting elected because he is Latino.
(Asked only of likely Republican caucus participants) I want to turn to some of the questions people have about some of the Republican candidates—other than the one you say is your first choice. For each concern I mention, please tell me if this is a major factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate as your first choice, a minor factor, or is not a factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate.
Rudy Giuliani supports abortion rights. Rudy Giuliani has been divorced twice.
Mitt Romney has shifted his positions on issues like abortion. Mitt Romney would have a harder time getting elected because he is a Mormon.
John McCain supported a plan offering illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. John McCain is a staunch supporter of the troop surge in Iraq.
Fred Thompson got a late start in the race and hasn’t campaigned much.
In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) Getting close to the end — sometimes people decide to support the candidate they think is most electable, even if they think there is another candidate who would make a better president. If you were assured that your party would win the November 2008 election, no matter who the candidate was — so that you were free to vote for the person you truly thought would be the best president — for whom would you vote?
Suppose the caucuses were held in December because of the timing of other states’ primaries and caucuses. Would such a change in timing make any difference in the likelihood you will attend the caucuses? (If yes) Would you be more likely or less likely to attend? (If less likely to attend) A lot less likely or a little less likely?
Which comes closest to your opinion on abortion: Abortion should be legal in all cases. Legal in most cases. Illegal in most cases. Illegal in all cases.
Since Fox will be controlling the "average" numbers of selected national polls to determine the 5% threshold, there is virtually no chance to qualify here even though Ron hit 5% on the latest CNN poll. The Des Moines Register poll, however, does represent a possible means of entry assuming the poll is administered without bias. Unfortunately, we can probably assume that Fox, the Iowa GOP and the Des Moines Register will at least indirectly pressure Selzer and Company to show Paul at less than 5% regardless of his support.
Attached is the methodology used by Selzer in their most recent Des Moines Register poll. In discussions last night with fellow Paulites, one thought was to request "observers" for the administration of the poll.
We obviously need to make a push to get Ron's numbers up the next few weeks in Iowa. At the same time, we may need to look at other options to ensure the phone poll is fairly administered and reported. Any lawyers in the crowd?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Methodology and questions for October 2007 Iowa Poll
October 7, 2007
The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 399 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Democratic caucuses and 405 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted randomly selected voters registered as Democrat, Republican or no-party by using randomly selected telephone numbers from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list.
Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Republishing the copyrighted Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
The poll, conducted Oct.1-3, asked the following:
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for January of 2008? Will you definitely attend, probably attend or probably not attend? Will you attend the Democratic or the Republican caucus?
Which one of the following Democratic candidates would be your first choice for president? (Among those who don’t volunteer a first choice) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or would say you support the most? And who would your second choice be?
Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton. Christopher Dodd. John Edwards. Mike Gravel. Dennis Kucinich. Barack Obama. Bill Richardson.
Which one of the following Republican candidates would be your first choice for president? (Among those who don’t volunteer a first choice) Toward which candidate would you say you are leaning, or would say you support the most? And who would your second choice be?
Sam Brownback. John Cox. Rudy Giuliani. Mike Huckabee. Duncan Hunter. Alan Keyes. John McCain. Ron Paul. Mitt Romney. Tom Tancredo. Fred Thompson.
When it comes to your support of (candidate named first choice for president), would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) I’m going to mention the field of candidates again. This time, please tell me if this is a candidate you would seriously consider, might consider if you knew more about them, or if you have ruled them out.
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) Some people wish they could combine traits from different candidates into one ideal candidate. For the following traits, please tell me which candidate has the most to offer if you were imagining an ideal candidate. Integrity. Leadership. Experience. Toughness. Intelligence. Vision. Charisma. Electability. Morality.
(Asked only of likely Democratic caucus participants) I want to turn to some of the questions people have about some of the Democratic candidates — other than the one you say is your first choice. For each concern I mention, please tell me if this is a major factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate as your first choice, a minor factor, or is not a factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate.
Barack Obama lacks experience in national and foreign affairs. Barack Obama would have a harder time getting elected because he’s an African-American.
Hillary Clinton is a polarizing figure. Hillary Clinton would have a harder time getting elected because she’s a woman.
John Edwards had his chance in the 2004 election. John Edwards’ wealthy lifestyle undermines his credibility when speaking out against poverty.
Bill Richardson would have a harder time getting elected because he is Latino.
(Asked only of likely Republican caucus participants) I want to turn to some of the questions people have about some of the Republican candidates—other than the one you say is your first choice. For each concern I mention, please tell me if this is a major factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate as your first choice, a minor factor, or is not a factor that keeps you from supporting the candidate.
Rudy Giuliani supports abortion rights. Rudy Giuliani has been divorced twice.
Mitt Romney has shifted his positions on issues like abortion. Mitt Romney would have a harder time getting elected because he is a Mormon.
John McCain supported a plan offering illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. John McCain is a staunch supporter of the troop surge in Iraq.
Fred Thompson got a late start in the race and hasn’t campaigned much.
In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
(Asked separately of likely Republican caucus participants and likely Democratic caucus participants) Getting close to the end — sometimes people decide to support the candidate they think is most electable, even if they think there is another candidate who would make a better president. If you were assured that your party would win the November 2008 election, no matter who the candidate was — so that you were free to vote for the person you truly thought would be the best president — for whom would you vote?
Suppose the caucuses were held in December because of the timing of other states’ primaries and caucuses. Would such a change in timing make any difference in the likelihood you will attend the caucuses? (If yes) Would you be more likely or less likely to attend? (If less likely to attend) A lot less likely or a little less likely?
Which comes closest to your opinion on abortion: Abortion should be legal in all cases. Legal in most cases. Illegal in most cases. Illegal in all cases.