Intrade.com: Paul overtakes Romney in Iowa, now 2nd best chance to win behind Newt

[da32130]

Paul (16.5%-19.2%):
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798

Romney(14.9%-15.0%):
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749792

[cdc482]

Gingrich: 58%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749796

WAKE UP!

[samsung1]

Gingrich: 29%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749796

it says he's at 58% chance to win iowa

[da32130]

Gingrich: 58%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749796

WAKE UP!

Wake up about what? This is the first time Paul has passed Romney in months. And we already have Gingrich pegged with an attack ad.

I was just noting the milestone to keep people encouraged to continue to work.

[69360]

Gingrich won't win the Caucus. He's in an easily predictable media pump up cycle. He'll be done just as the caucus rolls around.

[RonPaulCult]

You know, I want to believe in this intrade thing, but Gingrich just opened his iowa office FOUR DAYS AGO.

You need ground organization to win Iowa.

I'm going to make a gazillion phone calls to Iowa this week. We're going to WIN.

[AJ187]

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic as long as we know to keep the pressure on.

[Kregisen]

You know, I want to believe in this intrade thing, but Gingrich just opened his iowa office FOUR DAYS AGO.

You need ground organization to win Iowa.

I'm going to make a gazillion phone calls to Iowa this week. We're going to WIN.

Do you understand what intrade is? It's not a poll. It's not saying 58% of voters will vote for him. It's a stock market. It's saying all the people with money on intrade are overall betting that Gingrich has about a 58% chance of winning the poll. It's no different than Apple's stock price rising when the iphone 4s is released..

Saying you don't "believe in" intrade is like saying you don't believe in the stock market.

[69360]

Intrade doesn't involve any serious money, so it's easily manipulated. Take it with a grain of salt, it's just something fun for people to do.

[da32130]

Intrade doesn't involve any serious money, so it's easily manipulated. Take it with a grain of salt, it's just something fun for people to do.

It is probably more accurate than any poll and people devote considerable time to those. Manipulation longer than a few seconds or hours is probably unlikely unless someone does want to lose a lot of money, because then there is motivation to take the other side of the trade.

[justatrey]

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 20.0%
Today's Change: +$0.11 (+5.6%)

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 55.1%
Today's Change: -$0.31 (-5.3%)

:)

[BUSHLIED]

i say it based on the polls and media hype of gingrich...nothing more. I doubt they are factoring in Paul's awesome ground game.

[Jordan]

It's hard to have price discovery when there's limited volume, liquidity, and participation. I wouldn't take intrade very seriously, other than to suggest that there's still a lot of work to be done.

[Aratus]

Wake up about what? This is the first time Paul has passed Romney in months.
And we already have Gingrich pegged with an attack ad.

I was just noting the milestone to keep people encouraged to continue to work.

cooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooool

[TER]

Gingrich: 58%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749796

WAKE UP!

So a bunch of people who don't live in Iowa are betting like they did?

I would love to know the statistics Intrade has from people who live in Iowa...

[speciallyblend]

expose newt and romney, kill 2 birds with one stone, Ron Paul vs Status Quo, expose the biggovgop status quo republicans aka newt/romney!

[TER]

expose newt and romney, kill 2 birds with one stone, Ron Paul vs Status Quo, expose the biggovgop status quo republicans aka newt/romney!

The great thing is, if we can win Iowa, it is the game changer. The electability question become impotent and the potential grows manifold.

This is why all need to be calling, donating, and giving our time and money and consider it an investment to our future and the future of our children. We must put all we can now, in these next crucial weeks. The time will fast approach us and will arrive mcuch sooner than we think. If we are to restore this republic, we must do our civil duty and do it now and restore the Constitution and the rule of Law. We will never be able to get back these next few weeks. We should push harder then we ever have before.

Patriots! You have been called to duty! The people need you! There is discontent in the air and calls for revolution! On which side of history do you wish to be on the side of - tyranny, murder and injustice? Or do you stand by the ideals and truths which founded this nation and has been imitated the world over? The ideas of liberty, life, and peace!

[LeJimster]

Gingrich doing well on Intrade means very little. And all the polls reflect is who the people perceive to be the front runner. In every case of a candidates rise to take the lead from Romney, they were pumped by the media and like a hive mind people just accept them as front runner without really thinking or choosing that candidate.

Likewise, being constantly bombarded with unelectable for YEARS has got people believing Ron Paul doesn't have a chance. So this is the reason I don't think he polls well in national GOP. The encouraging thing though is if the voters can be reached on a more individual basis like in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media lies are exposed.

I think a win in Iowa and especially one by a BIG margin so that there can be no question of his popularity. Will propel Ron into one of the main candidates if not the Front runner and people who have dismissed him through media bias will come and take another look at Ron. A top 2 finish in New Hampshire would then solidify that support and boost it further especially if it's Ron and Romney out in front.

[PaulConventionWV]

So a bunch of people who don't live in Iowa are betting like they did?

I would love to know the statistics Intrade has from people who live in Iowa...

It predicted Michele Bachmann's win in Iowa. People need to stop doubting it just because we're not on top. Beside that, things change on Intrade very easily. Newt having 50%+ right now is no problem as long as we gain some ground come the Iowa caucuses. It doesn't take much to change the direction of Intrade. Just a changed perception in the market of who has the best chance. You don't have to win over thousands of voters to change these numbers.

[justatrey]

Another good day!

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 50.1%
Today's Change: -$0.5 (-8.6%)

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 21.0%
Today's Change: +$0.10 (+5%)

[J_White]

phone from home, go door to door, be a Paulunteer !!

[roughridersten]

I believe in Intrade far more than I do in any poll. Consider this: even at the hight of his popularity, Intrade never gave Cain more than a 10% chance of winning the nomination. The fact that Gingrich has risen so high (almost 4 times as likely as Cain ever got) indicates to me that he should not be taken lightly. This is not over yet. I do like the sharp fall in Romney's chances though. :-) I'm also curious about the recent rise by Huntsman who is currently higher than Paul (though they have traded back and forth lately).

Another interesting tidbit: if you add first and second place markets for Iowa you get the chance of winning either first or second:

Gingrich: 75.1%
Paul: 65.5%
Romney: 42.2%

Hard work is paying off! Keep it up!

Oh and to you doubters (of Intrade), if you believe the market is wrong you can make money by correcting it. Put your money where your mouth is.

[69360]

The shares don't trade for enough money to matter, so people just do whatever with it. That's why it's not real.

[justatrey]

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 25.0%
Today's Change: +$0.57 (+29.5%)

:)

[No Free Beer]

I provided a thread with information from a NYT's blog, which does a pretty good job at predicting outcomes.

here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/how-safe-is-gingrichs-lead-in-iowa/

"If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent"

*cough*, Dr. Paul, not Mr.

Anyway, Ron (and Rand) need to push hard these finally weeks so he can SHOCK THE WORLD!

[RonPaulCult]

He's also leading to get a second place finish in NH (which would be great considering Mitt's stronghold)

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91109

[doronster195]

Today's Change: +$1.06 (+54.9%)

[J_White]

just wait for two weeks, the Grinch will start falling two like the previous frontrunners !!
just keep working - Call for Paul ,go door to door, talk to people, donate !!

[LibertyEagle]

phone from home, go door to door, be a Paulunteer !!

That's right. It doesn't do one dang thing to sit here and freak out. Do something constructive to get Paul up in the ratings.

[Esoteric]

Looks like it will be coming down a bit, based on the current bid/ask. Someone bought it up to 30% earlier today, it seems. Maybe the OP? ;)