New NBC News-Marist Poll for Iowa and New Hampshire RP 17% in IA; 16% NH; Ties Obama in IA

[freefromchains]

Iowa Poll:
Gingrich 26% (+20 from last NBC-Marist Poll)
Romney 18% (-8)
Paul 17% (+5)
Cain 9% (-11)
Everyone else <5% (for some reason article won't let me click link)

New Hampshire Poll:
Romney 39% (-6)
Gingrich 23% (+19)
Paul 16% (+3)
Huntsman 9% (+4)
Perry 3%
Bachmann 3%
Cain 2%
Santorum 1%

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/04/9202435-gingrich-takes-control-in-iowa



Yet -- with one exception -- he leads all GOP challengers in hypothetical match-ups in the Hawkeye State. He’s ahead of Romney by seven points among registered voters (46 percent to 39 percent), Gingrich by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent) and Perry by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent).

The one exception: Paul ties him at 42 percent for each.

In New Hampshire, Romney leads Obama by three points (46 percent to 43 percent), although that’s down from Romney’s nine-point advantage in October.

But Obama leads all other Republicans in the state -- Paul (by two points), Gingrich (by 10) and Perry (by 15).

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Nov. 27-29 of 2,896 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) 916 Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points.

The New Hampshire poll was conducted Nov. 28-30 of 2,263 registered voters (plus-minus 2.1 percentage points), 967 total Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 696 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

[IndianaPolitico]

Very nice, the best against Obama, and a steady increase! Romney is very vunerable!

[ross11988]

What was she just saying on CNN? That he does the worst against Obama?

[freefromchains]

And the trends are very nice. Very nice increases in IA, and NH. Does the Best in IA against Obama. Only Romney does better in NH....and RP has closed that gap against Obama....that electability argument is looking more and more like bullsh*t even in the polls.

[GHoeberX]

Good news once again! He's up in all the polls it seems, but there's still a lot of work to be done! Hopefully our "Phone from Home" will convert even more voters!

[bluesc]

Some good results right there :D

[freefromchains]

What was she just saying on CNN? That he does the worst against Obama?

Who? Where? Didn't see this. Just saw this come across my updates. I haven't even checked cross tabs yet. Only the NH poll is clickable. But, this is excellent!

[pauladin]

romney's slowly losing ground in NH. wonder how low he'll be in a five weeks.

[freefromchains]

Some good results right there :D

Agreed...we must continue this, just need to pick up the pace. This is good news though.

[Tina]

Who? Where? Didn't see this. Just saw this come across my updates. I haven't even checked cross tabs yet. Only the NH poll is clickable. But, this is excellent!

Yeah, she said he only gets 4% of republican support in beating Obama.

[bluesc]

Yeah, she said he only gets 4% of republican support in beating Obama.

Rephrase that: Only 4% of Republicans think he has the best chance of beating Obama.

[jbuttell]

let's see how that 15% tipping point theory holds up, because it looks like its been definitively crossed.

With poll numbers like this, it seems absurd for the media to try and marginalize Paul support to resemble a third party candidate like Nader. The difference in magnitude and passionate support is in an entirely different league.

[freefromchains]

Yeah, she said he only gets 4% of republican support in beating Obama.

LOL what? Umm....obvious "misstatement" to say the least. That's pretty bad. Must have mad eyou scratch your head lol!
Tied in IA, Statistical tie in NH...I'm sure he's doing that with 4% of Republican support! Haha.

[freefromchains]

Rephrase that: Only 4% of Republicans think he has the best chance of beating Obama.

Well obviously there are a lot of republicans that are wrong. Only RP is statistically tied in both states with Obama.

[Tina]

Rephrase that: Only 4% of Republicans think he has the best chance of beating Obama.

Thanks!

[Carole]

What was she just saying on CNN? That he does the worst against Obama?

Among Republicans she said.

[bluesc]

Among Republicans she said.

No, she said only 4% of Republicans think he has the best chance of beating Obama.

[mwkaufman]

2011 After Thanksgiving averages:

Iowa - 27% Gingrich, 17% Paul, 16% Romney
New Hampshire - 37% Romney, 24% Gingrich, 15% Paul

2007 After Thanksgiving averages:

Iowa - 27% Huckabee, 25% Romney, 13% Giuliani
New Hampshire - 35% Romney, 21% Giuliani, 12% McCain

[FreeTraveler]

Here's the whole story. Candy Crowley asked Ron Paul about his ability to beat Obama.

Instead of using this poll or other similar polls that show Paul doing well with independents and democrats, she showed a poll of "likely Republican voters," asking them who had the best chance to beat Obama. Not surprisingly, only 4% thought he had the best chance of beating Obama.

I guess none of those surveyed had heard, from CNN for example, how he actually polls with independents and democrats. So they're hiding some great information about Ron by asking people who don't know the information what they think. A clever version of Catch-22.

This isn't the first time this technique has shown up in this election cycle, either.

[bolidew]

I guess #3 at both IA & NH still meets the campaign's "expectation".

[KramerDSP]

Here's the whole story. Candy Crowley asked Ron Paul about his ability to beat Obama.

Instead of using this poll or other similar polls that show Paul doing well with independents and democrats, she showed a poll of "likely Republican voters," asking them who had the best chance to beat Obama. Not surprisingly, only 4% thought he had the best chance of beating Obama.

I guess none of those surveyed had heard, from CNN for example, how he actually polls with independents and democrats. So they're hiding some great information about Ron by asking people who don't know the information what they think. A clever version of Catch-22.

This isn't the first time this technique has shown up in this election cycle, either.

Candy Crowley disgusts me. She is the absolute worst.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeyhMIFsg7Y

[pauliticalfan]

Why is no one mentioning that we're at 19% in Iowa, tied with Romney, now that Cain's dropped out?

[kylejack]

Here's the RCP matchups for general election voters (all negative against Obama):

Romney -0.9
Gingrich -5.7
Paul -7.7
Huntsman -8.7
Perry -9.6
Cain -10.2
Santorum -12.5*
Bachmann -14

*No actual RCP average, just averaged the two polls on file
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

[turbobrain9]

Overall positive press today about the poll. Everyone emphasizing Paul's name when they announce the results with almost zero negativity about that development...although most of the focus is on Newt and the surprise about his rise and Romney's apparent weaknesses etc..

Paul stands to pick up a few percentage points from Cain supporters and I suspect that we picked up a few extra prior to the annoucement of Cain suspending his campaign. Although I will admit that NH worries me a bit because it is a primary state, not one of Paul's strenghts, where Newt is in a solid second place...I wonder they have something lined up for NH to get to 25%??