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View Full Version : ASSUMING that polls in Iowa underestimate us like they did in 2008...




freefromchains
12-04-2011, 05:43 AM
In the Iowa caucuses in 2008, RP garnered 9.9% of the vote. The final RCP average put RP at 7.3%, with the final published poll putting him at 6%.

The RCP average for Paul was 73.73% of his actual vote total. This means he got 1.3563 times the support in the actual caucus than his RCP average.

Ron Paul's current RCP average is 12.8% (they are currently using the Des Monies Register poll-18%, Insider Advantage-13%, Rasmussen-10%, Polling Company-10%). ASSuming (and I know I am doing just that) that the polls underestimate the Paul support again by by the same number as 2008, we can say hat Paul currently has (12.8% x 1.3563)=17.36% support. If we want to take a more optimistic, hopeful view and throw out what many feel are unfair pollsters (Rasmussen and Polling Company) and take the two most recent polls. We have 18% (DMR) and 13% (Insider) for a 15.5% average....using the same under estimation number, we could say that Paul currently has (15.5% x 1.3563)=21.02% support. And of course if we want to be very hopeful and take just the DMR poll, we could say RP has (18% x 1.3563)=24.4% support.

Not saying this is the case at all, but caucus polling is very difficult to do, especially with a base like ours, young...and independent.

I do want to mention though, RCP averages nailed the exact order of the Iowa caucus from Huckabee to Rudy.

Just some food for thought.

kylejack
12-04-2011, 05:46 AM
Now, don't go throwing out polls from this cycle but not last cycle.

ross11988
12-04-2011, 05:49 AM
PPP will be coming out with a poll soon, I guess 16% minimum for Paul. I think right before the caucus, Ron Paul will have a 15-16% RCP Iowa Average

Carole
12-04-2011, 05:52 AM
This is rather interesting, but should not be too heavily weighted IMHO. Since all polls are subjective in some way, either a little or a lot, many conclusions might be drawn.

We take the polls as an indicator, but stress hard work and dedication as the true indicators of how successful the campaign will be.

Thanks for the points you bring up, but keep working hard for the real results. :)

freefromchains
12-04-2011, 06:07 AM
Now, don't go throwing out polls from this cycle but not last cycle.

That is a fair point. And you are right, that is why I was using the RCP average as biggest indicator because they choose which ones to include :D. Plus I don't know the exact polls from last time, which ones were more credible and which one's weren't.

The standard deviation this time on the polls is far greater than last time. Final polls last time only ranged from 6 to 10 on all of them. At this point we have seen from 8% to 21%....

Eric21ND
12-04-2011, 06:10 AM
Keep pushing!

bbartlog
12-04-2011, 07:20 AM
There were some serious failures in the get-out-the-vote operation last time around. Not sure you can really compare.

freefromchains
12-04-2011, 07:30 AM
There were some serious failures in the get-out-the-vote operation last time around. Not sure you can really compare.

There were failures? Yet we did better than we did in the polling? Wouldn't that mean we would even do better than our poll numbers this time?

anewvoice
12-04-2011, 07:37 AM
The RCP average held, which means the RCP average was still accurate no matter how much better or not a candidate did. We have <30 days to break 20%!

nc4rp
12-04-2011, 07:54 AM
Keep pushing!

Ron Paul Phone Calls needs to melt the phone lines in Iowa 2-3 days before the Jan 3 Caucus ( http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/nocallsatnight.php )

cdc482
12-04-2011, 09:54 AM
We're down by 7 points! That's 7,000 more votes needed! We've got work to do.
1. Phonebank
2. Send superbrochures
3. If you live in iowa, invite your close friends and family tog o to the caucus with you.

No Free Beer
12-04-2011, 10:14 AM
PHONE FROM HOME! PUSSSHHHH!

McDermit
12-04-2011, 10:17 AM
There were some serious failures in the get-out-the-vote operation last time around. Not sure you can really compare.Gotv was a nightmare :(

I wouldn't make any assumptions though. We still have work to do, and assuming higher poll numbers could lend a false sense of security.

cdc482
12-04-2011, 10:48 AM
Gotv was a nightmare :(

I wouldn't make any assumptions though. We still have work to do, and assuming higher poll numbers could lend a false sense of security.

What are you talking about!? We are 7-10 points down in all the most recent polls. 2nd does nothing. We need to win.