freefromchains
12-04-2011, 05:43 AM
In the Iowa caucuses in 2008, RP garnered 9.9% of the vote. The final RCP average put RP at 7.3%, with the final published poll putting him at 6%.
The RCP average for Paul was 73.73% of his actual vote total. This means he got 1.3563 times the support in the actual caucus than his RCP average.
Ron Paul's current RCP average is 12.8% (they are currently using the Des Monies Register poll-18%, Insider Advantage-13%, Rasmussen-10%, Polling Company-10%). ASSuming (and I know I am doing just that) that the polls underestimate the Paul support again by by the same number as 2008, we can say hat Paul currently has (12.8% x 1.3563)=17.36% support. If we want to take a more optimistic, hopeful view and throw out what many feel are unfair pollsters (Rasmussen and Polling Company) and take the two most recent polls. We have 18% (DMR) and 13% (Insider) for a 15.5% average....using the same under estimation number, we could say that Paul currently has (15.5% x 1.3563)=21.02% support. And of course if we want to be very hopeful and take just the DMR poll, we could say RP has (18% x 1.3563)=24.4% support.
Not saying this is the case at all, but caucus polling is very difficult to do, especially with a base like ours, young...and independent.
I do want to mention though, RCP averages nailed the exact order of the Iowa caucus from Huckabee to Rudy.
Just some food for thought.
The RCP average for Paul was 73.73% of his actual vote total. This means he got 1.3563 times the support in the actual caucus than his RCP average.
Ron Paul's current RCP average is 12.8% (they are currently using the Des Monies Register poll-18%, Insider Advantage-13%, Rasmussen-10%, Polling Company-10%). ASSuming (and I know I am doing just that) that the polls underestimate the Paul support again by by the same number as 2008, we can say hat Paul currently has (12.8% x 1.3563)=17.36% support. If we want to take a more optimistic, hopeful view and throw out what many feel are unfair pollsters (Rasmussen and Polling Company) and take the two most recent polls. We have 18% (DMR) and 13% (Insider) for a 15.5% average....using the same under estimation number, we could say that Paul currently has (15.5% x 1.3563)=21.02% support. And of course if we want to be very hopeful and take just the DMR poll, we could say RP has (18% x 1.3563)=24.4% support.
Not saying this is the case at all, but caucus polling is very difficult to do, especially with a base like ours, young...and independent.
I do want to mention though, RCP averages nailed the exact order of the Iowa caucus from Huckabee to Rudy.
Just some food for thought.