Huff Po: Is Ron Paul's Iowa Vote Being Missed By The Polls?

[sailingaway]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/01/ron-paul-iowa-vote-polls_n_1123740.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=web

I agree it is Obama last time that might have the clue to Ron this time (I've been saying that for a while), but I also know we can always talk ourselves into thinking he is winning regardless of facts. Still, thought you'd want to see this.

[trey4sports]

good article. Let's just hope the old folks stay home like Selzer is predicting.

[sailingaway]

I don't hope that. I hope they actually find out where Ron stands on their issues. Then they will turn out -- for Ron.

[RipperNT]

Amen, think that article put the biggest smile on my face! :)

[trey4sports]

I don't hope that. I hope they actually find out where Ron stands on their issues. Then they will turn out -- for Ron.

yeah.......... I guess i'm a bit more of a cynic :p




On a side note it is important to note that Obama's support was underpolled by about 7% leading up to the caucus. Actually about 5% if you use the DMR poll.

[IDefendThePlatform]

On a side note it is important to note that Obama's support was underpolled by about 7% leading up to the caucus. Actually about 5% if you use the DMR poll.

Good point, although I think its possible that the polls were completely accurate on him and 5-7% of the people were convinced to switch their votes at the actual caucus. We'll need to win people's votes on caucus night as well if we hope to win I think.

[IDefendThePlatform]

Wow, just noticed this little stat slipped in there:

As the following table shows, past caucus turnout by Republicans has typically represented 4 to 5 percent of Iowa's adult population.


Man, you'd think we could round up 3-4% of Iowa adults and completely dominate this thing. I know, not realistic...

[asurfaholic]

You gotta also think.. Obama getting elected was something alot of hoods participated in, and they probably didn't fit the pollster definintion of likely voters, so maybe large chunks of his type were getting passed over, while the usual voter may have been more skeptical, clinton type supporters. 7% is alot...

Im sure its happening to some degree with pauls support too, young people are really keen on his message, and many people will being to realize how crap the GOP field is, with one exception. I just hope that our numbers can be good enough, and not get overwhelmed by the nonthinking majority..

[Fermli]

really insightful article. I learned a lot.

[rideurlightning]

Great article. The country is coming our way.

[Agorism]

Someone posted an interview with Des Moines Register pollster who got Iowa closer than anyone else.

They are about 10% off other polls showing Obama surge, and Hillary called DMR poll to recall their poll telling him how their internals were not showing what they claimed.

But the DMR poll stood by their claim and got it right.

Anyone still have that article?

[mello]

If there is a snowstorm on the 3rd, I think that Ron will have a decisive 1st place win. If it doesn't snow or it's not freakishly cold, he might squeek by with first place.

[RDM]

You gotta also think.. Obama getting elected was something alot of hoods participated in, and they probably didn't fit the pollster definintion of likely voters, so maybe large chunks of his type were getting passed over, while the usual voter may have been more skeptical, clinton type supporters. 7% is alot...

Im sure its happening to some degree with pauls support too, young people are really keen on his message, and many people will being to realize how crap the GOP field is, with one exception. I just hope that our numbers can be good enough, and not get overwhelmed by the nonthinking majority..

Obama also has one heck of a Twitter campaign which energized the youth to come out. Something I think we're lacking as I watch the Iowa Caucus Twitter feed.

[Luieburger]

Amen, think that article put the biggest smile on my face! :)

I can't stop smiling :D