Unemployment rate falls to 8.6%

[axiomata]

Meaningful statistical change?

[CaptUSA]

IF it becomes a trend, then yes. It's meaningful in that Obama will use it to say that "he's" improving things.

If it's due to seasonal hiring and it goes back up or stays stagnant, it won't mean a thing.

[RileyE104]

Minimum wage, seasonal jobs probably... I got a seasonal job after months of applying at different minimum wage jobs. Hopefully they decide to keep me on after January but I was told they're only keeping 10% of who they hired for seasonal.

[ShaneEnochs]

Wherever unemployment is going down, I want to be there. I can't even find seasonal work.

[Rothbardian Girl]

Wherever unemployment is going down, I want to be there. I can't even find seasonal work.
I've heard South Dakota is a pretty economically strong state. Of course, you'd have to deal with the cold and finding a way to get there, but I think it has the lowest unemployment rate in the country (somewhere around 4%, if I'm not mistaken?). Granted, I've only read one magazine article about its success, but maybe it's worth checking out anyway.

[No Free Beer]

also, people stopped looking...therefore they dont fall under "unemployed"

[icon124]

people fell off of benefits too....like 300k I think.

Which means they no longer count them anymore....Government statistics at their best.

[AuH20]

I'm pretty sure that these numbers are mathematical projections as opposed to accurate, on the street tabulations. John Crudele from the NY Post wrote about this extensively:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/can_jobs_news_get_worse_just_wait_kujJq1I8GMMrUtce qERkmJ


Then there's another problem with June's employment report. Included in the 18,000 headline number is a guesstimate that 131,000 jobs were created by newly formed -- and, therefore, invisible -- companies.

If you want to send your resume to one of these companies, don't bother. They probably don't exist, and neither do the jobs the government thinks they are creating. These figments of the imagination of the Labor Department's computers will probably disappear when the numbers are checked early next year.



The Ministry of Truth's statistics shall not be opposed. LOL

[Romulus]

Yeah, and 315,000 leaving the work force lowers the unemployment rate too.

[pcosmar]

Meaningful statistical change?

I think not.
Propaganda and creative bookkeeping.

:(

[PaulConventionWV]

Wherever unemployment is going down, I want to be there. I can't even find seasonal work.

I hear ya, and I live in an even more secluded part of WV than you :(

I'm applying for Deputy County Clerk, and that pays well and is a gov't position, so that would be awesome, but the odds are against me.

[PaulConventionWV]

also, people stopped looking...therefore they dont fall under "unemployed"

So they're "professional bums"?

[Keith and stuff]

I've heard South Dakota is a pretty economically strong state. Of course, you'd have to deal with the cold and finding a way to get there, but I think it has the lowest unemployment rate in the country (somewhere around 4%, if I'm not mistaken?). Granted, I've only read one magazine article about its success, but maybe it's worth checking out anyway.

ND has the lowest and the weather is much worse in ND than SD. SD, NE, WY, NH and VT all have low unemployment relative to other states.

[kylejack]

I've heard South Dakota is a pretty economically strong state. Of course, you'd have to deal with the cold and finding a way to get there, but I think it has the lowest unemployment rate in the country (somewhere around 4%, if I'm not mistaken?). Granted, I've only read one magazine article about its success, but maybe it's worth checking out anyway.
I think it's a selection bias, though. To wit, people only go to South Dakota if they have a job offer there already.

[Zippyjuan]

I'm pretty sure that these numbers are mathematical projections as opposed to accurate, on the street tabulations. John Crudele from the NY Post wrote about this extensively:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/can_jobs_news_get_worse_just_wait_kujJq1I8GMMrUtce qERkmJ



The Ministry of Truth's statistics shall not be opposed. LOL
There are two figures which get reported- one is jobs and the second is unemployment. For the unemployment survey, people are asked if they worked in the past week. If they worked one day (even part of one) for money, they are considered employed. They get asked if not working, were they out looking for work in the past week. If not, they don't count as unemployed. If you aren't looking for work you don't count the same as somebody who wants a job and is actively seeking one. If you are collecting unemployment insurance, you must be looking for work (or at least say your are- the burden of proof is weak- often your own word plus perhaps a list of companies you "talked" to- this can be made up). Once your insurance runs out, there is no reason to pretend you are still looking for work so the answer may change to "no" on seeking employment. But simply losing your unemployment benefits does not necessarily mean you don't count as unemployed. If you are back out (or still out) looking for work you are counted.

More info on how unemployment rate is measured and calculated: http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm

Who is counted as employed?



Employed persons consist of:
All persons who did any work for pay or profit during the survey reference week.
All persons who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-owned enterprise operated by someone in their household.
All persons who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs, whether they were paid or not.


Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Persons also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week because they were:
On vacation
Ill
Experiencing child-care problems
Taking care of some other family or personal obligation
On maternity or paternity leave
Involved in an industrial dispute
Prevented from working by bad weather

Who is counted as unemployed?

Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.

Workers expecting to be recalled from layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).

Who is not in the labor force?

Persons not in the labor force are those who are not classified as employed or unemployed during the survey reference week.

Labor force measures are based on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. (Excluded are persons under 16 years of age, all persons confined to institutions such as nursing homes and prisons, and persons on active duty in the Armed Forces.) The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force." Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force.


The number of jobs is a survey of the other side- businesses get called and asked if they are or will be hiring more people or laying them off.

[DamianTV]

people fell off of benefits too....like 300k I think.

Which means they no longer count them anymore....Government statistics at their best.

This^

[Zippyjuan]

Yeah, and 315,000 leaving the work force lowers the unemployment rate too.
True. If you aren't looking for a job, you don't count as unemployed. Should they? I don't think so. It doesn't show if people want a job or not.

[kylejack]

They get asked if not working, were they out looking for work in the past week. If not, they don't count as unemployed
Past 4 weeks, actually. I think it's a pretty fair measure, because when I was unemployed, even when I was discouraged, it's pretty simple to fire off a few resumes on Monster. Going 4 weeks without even attempting to find employment likely means you are financially secure enough to manage it.

[Zippyjuan]

Thank you for the correction!

[kylejack]

people fell off of benefits too....like 300k I think.

Which means they no longer count them anymore....Government statistics at their best.
Well, benefits have been extended to 99 weeks. Even still, they still count as unemployed if they looked for work in the past 4 weeks.

[Zippyjuan]

99 weeks is almost two years!

[kylejack]

99 weeks is almost two years!
Yeah, pretty remarkable. But these are remarkable times. The Fed's loose credit policy played its role in destroying the economy, and we're now facing the highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression (aside from a brief 1982 blip).

As a trade for extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks, Obama had to trade continuing the Bush tax cuts, which had been set to expire.

[DamianTV]

Lets sum the whole thing up this way. Unemployment Rates are Down, but People are still Out of Work.

[ShaneEnochs]

Haven't collected a cent in unemployment but I've been unemployed for a year. I actively turn in applications. Do they count me as unemployed?

[sailingaway]

Yeah, and 315,000 leaving the work force lowers the unemployment rate too.

this ^^ there was a HUGE 'drop' in the 'labor force' as people just gave up.

[Liberty74]

Obama knows that he has to get the unemployment rate down below 8% to win re-election. No President but FDR has won so with unemployment higher.

It's all a mathematical scheme calculation the government uses for political purposes. Seriously folks, over 300K left the work force; about 200K jobs created (many for the holidays); the number of people in the workforce went from 64.2% to 64% (that's less, hello!) and somehow the unemployment rate falls by almost a half a point.

PLEASE!!! It's pure propaganda to make people feel something is happening when nothing really is. Now go out and bust that credit card to its limit because things are looking up. :rolleyes: