We defintley CANNOT let Gingrich win South Carolina...

[RileyE104]

If he wins SC, it will be perceived by virtually every media outlet that he will be the nominee and that's all we'll ever hear on TV for the rest of the month, especially if he wins Florida... It's pretty clear right now that if Gingrich doesn't fall between now and Florida, he will win FL's 50 delegates. If he is limited to winning only Florida, I think we can still defeat him since there will be other states, but as for SC, it's all about perception.


As of right now this is how I see things playing out...

- Iowa (Paul, Gingrich, Romney, Bachmann, Cain, Perry, Santorum, Huntsman)
*Santorum drops out due to poor showing after putting all his effort into Iowa.
*Bachmann does better than expected due to Cain falling, thus she opts to stay in the race.

- New Hampshire (Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Huntsman, Cain, Perry, Bachmann)
* Huntsmann does well, beating out all "middle-tier" candidates.
*Cain drops out and endorses Gingrich in order to help him win South Carolina.
*Bachmann drops out after poor showing.

- South Carolina (Gingrich, Romney, Paul, Perry, Huntsman) -- See bold section below on how to stop this!!
*Huntsman drops out due to poor showing after expecting to topple Perry due to his NH performance.

- Florida (Gingrich, Romney, Paul, Perry)
*Perry drops out and endorses Gingrich due to his dislike of Romney.


WE MUST NOT LET GINGRICH TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA!
- We need to step up our South Carolina efforts as soon as Dr. Paul wins or at least places top-3 in Iowa.
- We need to continue spreading the truth about Gingrich in the hopes that people will see the light before South Carolina votes.
- Bachmann dropping out before South Carolina could hurt Gingrich in that state simply because her supporters will not flock to him.


IMO, if Gingrich falls before SC votes, then the election there will end up being between Romney and Paul.
And in that state, there's a big chance that Dr. Paul, if properly viewed as the real Conservative between the two, could win.

[RileyE104]

Now, of course my "analysis" of the race is going to differ from the actual results, lol.

For instance, Santorum could pull an upset by defeating Perry in Iowa and then opt to stay in the race for a longer period of time.

Also, it's a possibility that Dr. Paul could come in 2nd or 3rd in Iowa.
That's why we need to keep up our efforts there!!

In New Hampshire, it's possible that Dr. Paul could come in 3rd.
Again, this is why we need to continue our efforts.
However, I'm confident a win or even 2nd in Iowa would certainly give Dr. Paul the momentum to come in 2nd and even threaten 1st in NH.

[iamse7en]

Good luck (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?322606-It-s-time-for-Gingrich-to-go%21&p=3646188#post3646188)...

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/9236/capturefl.png

[RileyE104]

Good luck (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?322606-It-s-time-for-Gingrich-to-go%21&p=3646188#post3646188)...

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/9236/capturefl.png

That's why I said it's going to be necessary to ramp up our efforts in South Carolina as soon as Iowa is over.

Also, other factors will be at hand.

Especially depending on who drops out and who they endorse as well as what happens to Gingrich between now and then.


I'll bet Gingrich is banking on Cain endorsing him before South Carolina votes.

Hopefully by that time people will have awakened to his true self.


It didn't take long for Bachmann or Perry or Cain to fall from their media-acquired rise.

[cindy25]

national polls mean nothing, its all IA and NH that will determine SC and FL; and SC and FL will determine the next batch. Cain a non-factor, he will gone by the weekend. But I would not rule out a Bachmann/Santorum ticket as a last ditch move on their part.

[oyarde]

I know of no way to prevent that ....

[Anti Federalist]

I know of no way to prevent that ....

Ron Paul Must. Win. Iowa.

A win in Iowa will help secure a solid second in NH.

SC like FL, I think is a lost cause.

There are too many people in both those states that think "God told the United States to kick the world's ass".

[RileyE104]

Ron Paul Must. Win. Iowa.

A win in Iowa will help secure a solid second in NH.

SC like FL, I think is a lost cause.

There are too many people in both those states that think "God told the United States to kick the world's ass".

I don't want to write South Carolina off yet, but I do agree that Florida will never go Paul's way unless he wins the nomination.


We're definitely going to need to perform well in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona and Michigan come February.

In the Nevada caucus, Dr. Paul has a chance to do real damage and grab a lot of delegates.

IMO he has a chance to win Maine. Just look at the results from 2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maine_Republican_caucuses,_2008

In Colorado, if Ken Buck winning the GOP nomination for Senate in 2010 means anything, it at least leads one to believe that things will be different there than they were in 2008.


I think by the time momentum builds for him, we'll be looking at some good numbers for Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona and Michigan.

[cindy25]

if Perry remains in the race, and is perceived viable he could take SC.

[ZanZibar]

Yes ideally everyone would win a different state until LA, NV, MN, CO, and WA which Ron will likely win. Ron will have won those plus Iowa which means we could then claim frontrunner status going into Super Tuesday.

[Feeding the Abscess]

There is absolutely no way Ron will take SC, it is MIC central. However, a top three finish would be great.

[rgc4rp]

Hi Alll,
First time poster here!

I feel we need to hit SC with the superbrochure bomb around the same time of the Iowa Caucus - Jan3rd. When they hear RPs name in the news when he wins Iowa, then they willl give more consideration to read the mail. We need to supply them with the facts and to show we are a serious campaign as soon as the winner in Iowa is announced.

just a thought.

[Badger Paul]

"in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota"

These states are going to be crucial, because right now outside of Romney we're the only campaign organized in them. If we can do top three in Iowa and New Hampshire and win these contests then we can continue on through February to Arizona and Michigan, the Washington caucus and then on to Super Tuesday.

[seraphson]

Looks like SC is all about the Kool-Aid.

[AuH20]

There is absolutely no way Ron will take SC, it is MIC central. However, a top three finish would be great.

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