CaptUSA
11-30-2011, 11:19 AM
Using RealClear's data, can we predict Newt's eventual fall?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html(If someone knows how to capture the chart, that'd be great!)
Let's look at the trend.
Cain's first rise began at the end of May and peaked at the end of June.
Bachman's rise began at the middle of June and peak in the 2nd half of July. After Ames August 13th, she dropped off precipitously.
Perry's rise began at the end of June and peaked in the middle of September.
Cain's 2nd rise began with the implosion of Perry in the middle of September, peaked in the middle of October, and has been losing steam all of November.
Which brings us to Gingrich which began at the beginning of November coinciding with Cain's drop.
Interestingly, Romney only experienced two drops - coinciding with the rise of Perry and the rise of Gingrich.
Ron Paul stays steady.
Now, these national polls don't amount to much since the voting hasn't even started in the primaries, but it's interesting to try to predict Newt's fall. Right now, Newt is reaching is peak. How long he can ride this peak will depend on many factors. The most important factor being - is there a place for this support to go. When there's no other viable alternative, the peak can last a while. Once one is identified, the candidate will drop off fast.
In Newt's case, if he can ride the peak until the end of December, he'll be lucky. No one else has held the peak that long.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html(If someone knows how to capture the chart, that'd be great!)
Let's look at the trend.
Cain's first rise began at the end of May and peaked at the end of June.
Bachman's rise began at the middle of June and peak in the 2nd half of July. After Ames August 13th, she dropped off precipitously.
Perry's rise began at the end of June and peaked in the middle of September.
Cain's 2nd rise began with the implosion of Perry in the middle of September, peaked in the middle of October, and has been losing steam all of November.
Which brings us to Gingrich which began at the beginning of November coinciding with Cain's drop.
Interestingly, Romney only experienced two drops - coinciding with the rise of Perry and the rise of Gingrich.
Ron Paul stays steady.
Now, these national polls don't amount to much since the voting hasn't even started in the primaries, but it's interesting to try to predict Newt's fall. Right now, Newt is reaching is peak. How long he can ride this peak will depend on many factors. The most important factor being - is there a place for this support to go. When there's no other viable alternative, the peak can last a while. Once one is identified, the candidate will drop off fast.
In Newt's case, if he can ride the peak until the end of December, he'll be lucky. No one else has held the peak that long.