Rasmussen Poll - New Hampshire GOP Primary

[tsai3904]

New Hampshire (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary)
11/28
762 likely Republican primary voters
+/-4.0%

Results in parenthesis are from the last New Hampshire poll conducted on 10/25.

Romney......34%.....(41%)
Gingrich......24%......(8%)
Paul..........14%...(11%)
Huntsman...11%......(7%)
Cain............5%.....(17%)
Bachmann....2%......(3%)
Perry...........2%......(4%)
Santorum.....1%......(1%)

[bluesc]

Hmm. That Union Leader endorsement helped Newt. Why do they have Ron so low in Iowa yet have him in line with internal numbers in NH?

[PastaRocket848]

because IA is not NH.

[Uriah]

He is up with Rasmussen. This is good. Keep moving up!

[bluesc]

because IA is not NH.

wat

I was talking about in comparison to internal numbers (and other public polls).

[specsaregood]

He is up with Rasmussen. This is good. Keep moving up!

And the trend with these other polls continues to move up closer to the bloomberg polls as it gets closer to that 30day window of credibility.....

[RonPaulFanInGA]

That Union Leader endorsement is helping Gingrich: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?333073-Analysis-New-Hampshire-paper%E2%80%99s-endorsement-worth-11-points-on-average-to-recipient

At least Cain collapsed. But Huntsman, who is at 0%-3% nationally, is polling 11% in New Hampshire after going 'all in' there. Still, Huntsman is in a very distant fourth place in his 'make or break' state.

[BUSHLIED]

well it looks like the race in NH is tightening...this is good for us because Romney's lead is narrowed. I suspect that Huntsman will also rise a bit more too. This will be a four way race in NH now, which has it's pros and cons. Pros is that we stand a chance to win, cons is that Ron no longer has a solid second place footing. I suppose it really now means that a win in Iowa is essential to give Paul the boost he is going to need to contend with Gingrich should he not explode prior to Iowa.

[69360]

Hmm. That Union Leader endorsement helped Newt. Why do they have Ron so low in Iowa yet have him in line with internal numbers in NH?

Poll was taken before.

[69360]

If even Rassmussen says 14%, I wonder what it really is? Probably 20%.

[bluesc]

Poll was taken before.

Before what? The endorsement? The poll was conducted yesterday.

[harikaried]

Romney......34%.....(41%)
Paul..........14%...(11%)Down by 20% as opposed to down by 30%? Maybe Huntsman will push even harder in December to take more votes away from Romney.

[69360]

Before what? The endorsement? The poll was conducted yesterday.

You're right, I misread the first post and thought this was from 10/25

An interesting historical fact is that on this date in 2007 Romney had 33% and McCain had 15%.

[bluesc]

You're right, I misread the first post and thought this was from 10/25

An interesting historical fact is that on this date in 2007 Romney had 33% and McCain had 15%.

... And Huntsman is within the margin of error of 15% and is living in NH. If he gets pumped up by the media if Newt falls, he is a possibility too.

[Xenliad]

If even Rassmussen says 14%, I wonder what it really is? Probably 20%.

That's exactly what I was wondering. I'm surprised they'd show him polling this high.

[69360]

... And Huntsman is within the margin of error of 15% and is living in NH. If he gets pumped up by the media if Newt falls, he is a possibility too.

Huntsman isn't a factor. He's nationally next to nothing. He might get 7-8% in NH because daddy gave his superpac a half mill for an ad buy. But after that then what? He's already done in IA, he's hopeless in SC and FL. He has no hope again until maybe NV.

[bluesc]

Huntsman isn't a factor. He's nationally next to nothing. He might get 7-8% in NH because daddy gave his superpac a half mill for an ad buy. But after that then what? He's already done in IA, he's hopeless in SC and FL. He has no hope again until maybe NV.

Aside from IA, that sounds a lot like Ron.

[69360]

That's exactly what I was wondering. I'm surprised they'd show him polling this high.

Generally these pollsters have to get closer to reality near the elections to maintain a semblance of credibility.

[Oddone]

Huntsman isn't a factor. He's nationally next to nothing. He might get 7-8% in NH because daddy gave his superpac a half mill for an ad buy. But after that then what? He's already done in IA, he's hopeless in SC and FL. He has no hope again until maybe NV.

Dunno, he snubbed NV and refused to attend the debate in October. He pushed NV away to try and get more votes by pandering to NH's woes over the move up of caucus/primary dates.

[69360]

Aside from IA, that sounds a lot like Ron.

But huntsman has no staff anywhere else, no supporters and no money.

A good showing for Ron in IA and NH could turn into a few delegates in SC and FL. If Cain drops, the game changes in the southeast.

[69360]

Dunno, he snubbed NV and refused to attend the debate in October. He pushed NV away to try and get more votes by pandering to NH's woes over the move up of caucus/primary dates.

There are a lot of mormons in NV.

[Oddone]

There are a lot of mormons in NV.

Ah yea... Although Romney may pull more of those votes than Huntsman I'd think.

[trey4sports]

he's moving upward. That's great. Romney is in a serious pickle.

[JohnGalt23g]

Hmm. That Union Leader endorsement helped Newt. Why do they have Ron so low in Iowa yet have him in line with internal numbers in NH?

IA is a caucus, NH a primary. Far more difficult to capture an authentic look at a caucus, because intensity leads to far bigger shifts in shorter periods of time.

Either way, I think both polls look very good for us. Gingrich doesn't have organization in Iowa, and I don't know if he can build it in five weeks. Romney has to decide in short order whether he goes all-in in Iowa, or whether he backs out, and plays hard in NH and SC. If he goes all in in Iowa and finishes behind Paul, his campaign could well collapse. That's why I think he bails and leaves it to us and Newt to battle out in IA.

We can do this, people...

[bluesc]

But huntsman has no staff anywhere else, no supporters and no money.

A good showing for Ron in IA and NH could turn into a few delegates in SC and FL. If Cain drops, the game changes in the southeast.

I'm not arguing against the fact that Ron is set for a strong campaign, I was simply stating that there is no way you can completely dismiss Huntsman. He has very rich backers, and IF he gets a media boost (the only way he could win NH) he could begin building a campaign then. I was comparing to McCain, who also had no money or real supporters.

[trey4sports]

I'm not arguing against the fact that Ron is set for a strong campaign, I was simply stating that there is no way you can completely dismiss Huntsman. He has very rich backers, and IF he gets a media boost (the only way he could win NH) he could begin building a campaign then. I was comparing to McCain, who also had no money or real supporters.

i just don't see Huntsman catching on in the GOP.

[69360]

I'm not arguing against the fact that Ron is set for a strong campaign, I was simply stating that there is no way you can completely dismiss Huntsman. He has very rich backers, and IF he gets a media boost (the only way he could win NH) he could begin building a campaign then. I was comparing to McCain, who also had no money or real supporters.

Nobody has ever recovered from a polling position as low as Huntsman to win a nomination. It's basically impossible. I dismiss Huntsman and can't see him making it to super Tuesday.

[bluesc]

i just don't see Huntsman catching on in the GOP.

I couldn't see Mitt, Cain, McCain or Newt catching on. They are all just as liberal. The only difference is that Huntsman wouldn't sign the tax pledge, which could hurt him. If he is painted as "The Other Mr Electable" by the media, and wins NH, the sheep will follow. I mean COME ON, they followed Mr "I'll Ask My Advisers" Cain.

[bluesc]

Nobody has ever recovered from a polling position as low as Huntsman to win a nomination. It's basically impossible. I dismiss Huntsman and can't see him making it to super Tuesday.

I remember someone mentioning Carter being at 4% at this point. It's not a stretch. We know the power of the media.

[trey4sports]

I couldn't see Mitt, Cain, McCain or Newt catching on. They are all just as liberal. The only difference is that Huntsman wouldn't sign the tax pledge, which could hurt him. If he is painted as "The Other Mr Electable" by the media, and wins NH, the sheep will follow. I mean COME ON, they followed Mr "I'll Ask My Advisers" Cain.

I have to respectfully disagree with you. They do appeal to the base even if I don't like it. McCain talking about 100 years in Iraq went over well with the GOP. Cain, Mitt, and Newt all play to what the GOP wants to hear. Huntsman really doesn't appeal to any faction of the GOP. His foreign policy appeals to a minority within the GOP.

[tsai3904]

Someone with access to the crosstabs posted this:

http://race42012.com/2011/11/29/cross-tab-details-on-the-latest-nh-ras-reports-poll/


In the ancillary questions we find that 20% of New Hampshire Ron Paul supporters would vote for a third party rather than a GOP nominee not named Ron

[tfurrh]

Romney......34%.....(41%)
Gingrich......24%......(8%)
Paul..........14%...(11%)
Huntsman...11%......(7%)
Cain............5%.....(17%)
Bachmann....2%......(3%)
Perry...........2%......(4%)
Santorum.....1%......(1%)

17% (9%)


Lot more undecided since the last poll

[bluesc]

I have to respectfully disagree with you. They do appeal to the base even if I don't like it. McCain talking about 100 years in Iraq went over well with the GOP. Cain, Mitt, and Newt all play to what the GOP wants to hear. Huntsman really doesn't appeal to any faction of the GOP. His foreign policy appeals to a minority within the GOP.

His foreign policy appeals to more than you think. They like Ron's foreign policy until it comes to Israel and Iran, while Huntsman wants to stay in Afghanistan even longer than Romney does. He wants to stay there indefinitely. Don't assume he is anti-war. He isn't. He tries to come across as "common sense guy", and does it well.

[69360]

Someone with access to the crosstabs posted this:

http://race42012.com/2011/11/29/cross-tab-details-on-the-latest-nh-ras-reports-poll/


Newt is doing well in this latest poll but he seems to have a serious issue with younger voters 18-39, only 6% of whom indicated that they would vote for Gringrich versus 36% for Romney. Anomaly or serious issue?
Romney is still holding the key demo: 40 to 64 year old moderate Republicans. Newt is at 26% of the “somewhat conservative” votes vs. 41% for Romney. This group makes up over half of the most likely voters.
Romney is also holding a 15 point lead on those who are certain to vote on election day.
Newt has the serious edge with the Tea Party vote in New Hampshire doubling Romney’s 22% to take 44% of this activist demo.
Surprisingly, Romney has 44% of the Catholic vote over Gingrich with 27%. What gives there? Are Catholics more moderate?
Here’s a curious ditty: Ras. Reports asked “Which candidate did the Manchester Union Leader Endorse?”. The correct answer is Gingrich but 58% of Romney supporters thought Romney got the nod. We’ll see if things change when word gets out further.
In the ancillary questions we find that 20% of New Hampshire Ron Paul supporters would vote for a third party rather than a GOP nominee not named Ron; Santorum has the biggest share of Obama loathers with 93% of his vote saying that they STRONGLY disapprove of Obama.


I knew the newspaper endorsement didn't matter. I predicted that the other day.

This shows one more time that Romney can not win the general election v. Obama. The GOP loses without us.

[sailingaway]

Hmm. That Union Leader endorsement helped Newt. Why do they have Ron so low in Iowa yet have him in line with internal numbers in NH?

What makes you think that is in line with internal numbers? Last I heard he was in second with internal numbers, but that was before the crest of Gingrich's spike, this last weekend.

[tsai3904]

I knew the newspaper endorsement didn't matter. I predicted that the other day.

To be fair, the endorsement was on the 27th and the poll was conducted on the 28th. I would bet that a large number of those polled hadn't heard about it the next day but will in the near future (not saying that it will make an impact though).

[sailingaway]

Huntsman isn't a factor. He's nationally next to nothing. He might get 7-8% in NH because daddy gave his superpac a half mill for an ad buy. But after that then what? He's already done in IA, he's hopeless in SC and FL. He has no hope again until maybe NV.

but he is REALLY pushing NH and if you don't look at his donors is personable and reasonable sounding. And the media likes him a whole lot better than they like Ron. I'm not thinking Huntsman is a factor long term, but he can't be forgotten and can do us damage in an early state Ron needs to do very, very well in.

[bluesc]

What makes you think that is in line with internal numbers? Last I heard he was in second with internal numbers, but that was before the crest of Gingrich's spike, this last weekend.

If I remember correctly, Ron said both Bloomberg polls confirmed what he had seen in internal numbers, with Romney actually being lower than shown publicly in NH. Obviously Gingrich surged, but I couldn't think of any reason for Ron to gain there, so I made an assumption based on the latest information I had. Coming from Rasmussen, I expected 8%.

[sailingaway]

If I remember correctly, Ron said both Bloomberg polls confirmed what he had seen in internal numbers, with Romney actually being lower than shown publicly in NH. Obviously Gingrich surged, but I couldn't think of any reason for Ron to gain there, so I made an assumption based on the latest information I had. Coming from Rasmussen, I expected 8%.

Ron said a series of things in a few days about internal numbers. I understood him to be speaking about rankings, since he specifically said he was in second in NH, rather than about precise numbers, and he had been saying that his numbers were higher than the polls were showing just before both Bloomberg polls came out. But since this is a different pollster and the numbers went UP, I'm thinking Bloomberg's pollster, and Ron's might be higher yet, now.

[PastaRocket848]

Someone with access to the crosstabs posted this:

http://race42012.com/2011/11/29/cross-tab-details-on-the-latest-nh-ras-reports-poll/

only 20%? i'd have guessed more like 90%.

[limequat]

Ron said a series of things in a few days about internal numbers. I understood him to be speaking about rankings, since he specifically said he was in second in NH, rather than about precise numbers, and he had been saying that his numbers were higher than the polls were showing just before both Bloomberg polls came out. But since this is a different pollster and the numbers went UP, I'm thinking Bloomberg's pollster, and Ron's might be higher yet, now.

Question is, are Gingrinch's numbers real?

If Cain drops out he could take SC, FL and RUN.

[trey4sports]

Ron had a very very good debate. I think that is a big reason for this surge.

[trey4sports]

Question is, are Gingrinch's numbers real?

If Cain drops out he could take SC, FL and RUN.


no no, i think the question is: how will Gingrich fare once he's been hit. This guy has some serious baggage and I'm sure someone will hit him with it. Be it Paul or Romney. My guess is that the campaign will have a negative ad out on Gingrich before the caucus. Not sure if they will attack him soon and risk his support consolidating behind someone else or if they will attack late and merely try to suppress his turnout.

[limequat]

no no, i think the question is: how will Gingrich fare once he's been hit. This guy has some serious baggage and I'm sure someone will hit him with it. Be it Paul or Romney. My guess is that the campaign will have a negative ad out on Gingrich before the caucus. Not sure if they will attack him soon and risk his support consolidating behind someone else or if they will attack late and merely try to suppress his turnout.

Dunno, but the Cain dropping out thing scares the hell out of me. It's obvious now that the two were colluding. Gingrich picked cain as his hypothetical VP and then the 2 had their Lincoln-Douglass debate. Maybe Cain got played...

I'm afraid the media will pump Gingrich until he wins the nomination and then dump him. Gingrich vs Obama. Puke.

[Kords21]

Of course Newt played Cain. I don't know what Newt offered him in excahnge for paving the way for him so to speak, but those two seem to have some kind of thing going on. That Lincoln-Douglas debate was such a mutal love fest that it was disgusting. I'm not sorry to see Cain finally get knocked out since I think he's nowhere near qualified to be POTUS. It'd be really funny if Cain's supporters went to everyone buy Newt so their little plan would backfire, but we'll see what happens.

[InTradePro]

Dunno, but the Cain dropping out thing scares the hell out of me. It's obvious now that the two were colluding. Gingrich picked cain as his hypothetical VP and then the 2 had their Lincoln-Douglass debate. Maybe Cain got played...

I'm afraid the media will pump Gingrich until he wins the nomination and then dump him. Gingrich vs Obama. Puke.

If the Gingrich-Cain setup was planned as you imply then Cain may drop out before Iowa. Intrade has had Cain trading at 0.5% to win the GOP nomination today, only a 1 in 200 chance. This type of chance if sustained does suggest a dropp out for the Cain run although maybe the market is today over reacting to recent Cain affair allegations.

[sailingaway]

no no, i think the question is: how will Gingrich fare once he's been hit. This guy has some serious baggage and I'm sure someone will hit him with it. Be it Paul or Romney. My guess is that the campaign will have a negative ad out on Gingrich before the caucus. Not sure if they will attack him soon and risk his support consolidating behind someone else or if they will attack late and merely try to suppress his turnout.

this. The question is whether it will strike home prior to the caucus / primary. those are very important states to Ron, and he needs momentum. The fact that Gingrich will eventually out Hindenburg the Hindenburg doesn't help if it isn't before IA and NH. But an attack ad could cause problems for the person doing it, as well, unless it is a pure policy ad -- pushed to create the WTO, cheerleader for NAFTA (not popular in NH OR Iowa), voted to create the Dept of Ed, pushed for embryonic stem cell research funding and supported taxpayer funding for abortions in his past, supported cap and trade and the individual mandate on health insurance....

What exactly is it that makes people want a different president than Obama? Because if that list and the rest of his record doesn't disqualify him as a supposed 'more conservative than Romney' standard bearer, it is hard to think what will.

[pauliticalfan]

Looks like Huntsman's taken some support away from Romney, and we've moved up as well. New Hampshire is now competitive, and we're right in the thick of it.

[69360]

The best possible scenario is this. Cain drops out. Ron hits hard on Newt's policy flips while somebody like Frothy hit Newt hard on personal issues. That's just about a surefire Iowa win and NH 2nd. Hopefully that will lead to a loss of momentum for newt in the southern primaries.

[willwash]

NH Massholes must be getting Huntsman confused with Romney.

[69360]

Question is, are Gingrinch's numbers real?

If Cain drops out he could take SC, FL and RUN.

There's nowhere for the grinch to run after that until march. All the states after that are not favorable to him. NV, ME, CO etc. He's got nothing until super tuesday.

[InTradePro]

BREAKING: Cain ‘Reassessing’ Candidacy
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/284321/breaking-cain-reassessing-candidacy-robert-costa

...will make his final decision “over the next several days.”

Seems to me a strong possibility of dropping out soon.