Insider Advantage GOP Iowa Caucus Poll & GOP South Carolina Poll (11/28)

[freefromchains]

Previous poll from 11/8 in Parentheses

Iowa
Gingrich 28% (15%) +13
Paul 13% (11%) +2
Romney 12% (19%) -7
Bachmann 10% (5%) +5
Cain 10% (23%) -13
Perry 7% (9%) -2
Santorum 3% (3%) --
Huntsman -- (--) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_Iowa_GOP_1129.pdf

South Carolina
Gingrich 38% (19%) +19
Romney 15% (16) -1
Cain 13% (26%) -13
Paul 7% (3%) +4
Perry 4% (6%) -2
Bachmann 3% (5%) -2
Santorum 2% (2%) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_GOP_1129.pdf

Never been a huge fan of their polls because they sorely lack information and their cross tabs are usually pretty ridiculous.

But nice to see positive traction in a typically unfavorable pollster (albeit a small increase...it is an increase!)

[Kords21]

Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.

[RileyE104]

good news GOOD NEWS this was a great thing to wake up to!!!!

[beardedlinen]

Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.

According to the polls it's one of the toughest states we're gonna have to deal with. Florida's not even worth mentioning...

[rp08orbust]

good news GOOD NEWS this was a great thing to wake up to!!!!

It's not bad news. Upward movement in polls conducted by the same pollster (even when they're suspect) is always good, especially when Ron Paul is the only candidate besides the flavor of the month moving up, as is the case with SC.

[69360]

Looking real good. Ron is only going up and Newt will be crashing on schedule soon.

[ghengis86]

WTF GOP? Newt?! Are they that dense? Here's hoping the MSM pump and dump ends before Jan 3

[braane]

Ron @ 8.6% with Indies in SC :/ ... I hope that isn't accurate.

[V3n]

By the time we hit SC we'll already have wins in Iowa and NH, so we'll have the upward momentum and dispelled the "unelectable" BS; then SC will be happy to jump on-board and pick a proven winner who is not Romney.

[bluesc]

That Iowa poll is hilarious and BS.

[limequat]

The most interesting thing about the Iowa poll is how far Romney has fallen. I don't recall seeing him that low in any state.

[IndianaPolitico]

The most interesting thing about the Iowa poll is how far Romney has fallen. I don't recall seeing him that low in any state.
Agreed, Romney's lead in Iowa is gone. Now we just need to keep up our momentum!

[bluesc]

The most interesting thing about the Iowa poll is how far Romney has fallen. I don't recall seeing him that low in any state.

It's because he isn't. His campaign wouldn't have gone public with an all-out push in Iowa if they were that low. This poll is terrible.

[wgadget]

South Carolina is neocon central. It's where RedState guy introduced Flavor-of-the-Month Rick Perry.

These polls do prove one thing: The media is still in control of elections.

[RileyE104]

Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.


As of January 19, RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls placed McCain in the lead with 26.9%, followed by Huckabee with 25.9%, Romney with 14.7%, Thompson with 14.6%, Paul with 4.4%, and Giuliani with 3.4%.


TODAY'S RCP AVERAGES: Gingrich (26.3%), Romney (17.7%), Cain (16.7%), Perry (6.3%), Paul (5.3%), Bachmann (3.7%), Huntsman (2%), Santorum (1.6%) -- Still a long way away from January 19, so no need to panic yet! lol

In the last election 16,000 out of 445,000 people showed up giving Dr. Paul less than 4% of the vote.


In the year 2000, the presidential election was a 2-person race between Bush and McCain. Bush won with 294,000 votes against McCain's 231,000 votes. In the 2006 race for Governor, it was a 2-person race in which 160,000 out of 247,000 people voted to elect Mark Sanford. However, this is a presidential election so I doubt only 250,000 people will show up and it wont be a 2-person race so we also won't need near as many votes as it took these guys.

In the 2008 election for president, there were basically three-tiers that consisted of six people. The top-tier was McCain (148,000 votes) vs Huckabee (133,000). The second-tier was Thompson (70,000) vs Romney (68,000) and the third-tier was Paul (16,000) vs Giuliani (9,500). And in the 2010 election for Governor there was a four-way race. The results were Haley (206,000) vs Barrett (92,000) vs McMaster (71,500) vs Bauer (52,500).


One thing I'm pretty sure of is that no less than 400,000 people are going to show up. If we're lucky only 375,000 will show up. However, I doubt more than 475,000 will show. Especially since a lot of Republicans are either discouraged about victory against Obama or simply just don't care who the nominee is and will instead opt to vote in November.

The wild-card here is how many people are still in the race come January 21st. There is a possibility IMO that on a scale of 1-10, (9) that we wont see Santorum, (7) that we wont see Bachmann, (5) that we wont see Huntsman or Perry and (3) that we wont see Cain. The race will definitely consist of Gingrich, Paul and Romney.

IMO, our struggles here will be against Romney and Gingrich if Cain continues his downfall. We'll do even better if Gingrich falls. I don't see Perry doing better than us but there is a slight possibility. Most of this depends on voter turn-out. If the others fail to properly organize, I can see Dr. Paul running away with third place at the least.

I personally feel that Dr. Paul is going to need at least 50,000 votes in order to compete. This is why momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire is so important!

[69360]

South Carolina is neocon central. It's where RedState guy introduced Flavor-of-the-Month Rick Perry.

These polls do prove one thing: The media is still in control of elections.

A lot of SC GOP voters make a living off the MIC.

[InTradePro]

These polls do prove one thing: The media is still in control of elections.

The media(msm) is in control of the polls.

[SchleckBros]

In Iowa, Ron Paul gets 5.6% among Republicans and Bachmann gets 46.8% among 18-29 year olds.

I smell some BS!!!!

[freefromchains]

In Iowa, Ron Paul gets 5.6% among Republicans. BS!!!!

That's what I meant about the cross tabs....lots of BS in there!

[MomsBasement]

Hilarious that Cain is down the exact same amount Newt is up. Who are these cattle that migrate each time the media pumps a new flavor of the month?

[mwkaufman]

Romney with I think an unlucky poll result here, but he's definitely slipping in Iowa. It's now been over a month since he polled 20% or higher there, and the last time he polled as low as 12% was in April of 2007, when Giuliani led a Strategic Vision poll.

Other interesting notes, Romney is actually in 5th place amongst men, and Gingrich is running away with the female vote.

Iowa Men

23% Gingrich
19% Paul
16% Bachmann
14% Cain
7% Romney
6% Perry

Iowa Women

33% Gingrich
15% Romney
8% Paul
7% Perry
6% Cain
5% Bachmann

"Hold on, moms, it's not too late," evidently not doing it for the women voters.

Paul at just 6% amongst Republicans.

Iowa Republicans

31% Gingrich
14% Bachmann
14% Romney
8% Perry
6% Paul
5% Cain

However, he does lead with Independents and Democrats.

Iowa Independents

30% Paul
25% Gingrich
22% Cain
8% Romney
3% Perry
2% Bachmann

Iowa Democrats

26% Paul
11% Gingrich
9% Cain
8% Bachmann
3% Romney
2% Perry

[limequat]

That's what I meant about the cross tabs....lots of BS in there!

Uh... am I reading these cross tabs correctly? The race break down says they have 10 black respondants. Bachmann get's 4.3% of that vote. How the hell do you get 4.3% out of a sample of ten?

[AggieforPaul]

Ugh this is frustrating. It feels like it doesn't even matter if we expose newt because his supporters will just go tonanyone but Paul. I really feel like they'd just go back to perry or go to huntsman or something.

[Zydeco]

Another decent poll. Remember that 90% of people aren't paying any attention yet, even in Iowa. RP's support is solid and moving up, that's the key thing. We've seen Bachmann, Perry, Cain and now Gingrich suddenly elevated to levels of support in the polls that clearly don't exist on the ground.

[pauliticalfan]

We need to pop the Newt bubble, and continue to have Ron Paul go up.

[Badger Paul]

A few of things:

1). Gingrich has no campaign to speak of in Iowa. He has no way of getting people to the caucuses on his own, he would need a huge turnout of people just going out of habit.

2). Romney's tumble may make them think twice about going all-in for Iowa. I wonder if lends credibility to rumors Romney's people may starting back Paul as strategic voting method to blunt Gingrich.

3). The polling was probably done before the latest Cain allegations which look to be much more credible than the previous allegations. I think everyone senses the Cain's campaign is steadily losing air in the wake of Gingrich. This is a campaign which needed momentum and doesn't have any right now.

It's a three-person race Romney-Paul-Gingrich and it makes sense this way.

[parocks]

Looking real good. Ron is only going up and Newt will be crashing on schedule soon.

If Newt is "crashing on schedule" that's great.

If he isn't, that's bad.

Someone might want to make a tv commercial trashing Newt, in case he doesn't crash on schedule.

[parocks]

Ugh this is frustrating. It feels like it doesn't even matter if we expose newt because his supporters will just go tonanyone but Paul. I really feel like they'd just go back to perry or go to huntsman or something.

Maybe. If they scatter to many candidates, that's fine.

[limequat]

Uh... am I reading these cross tabs correctly? The race break down says they have 10 black respondants. Bachmann get's 4.3% of that vote. How the hell do you get 4.3% out of a sample of ten?

SC poll is the same way. RP got 59.2% of 16 black votes. That.s 9.472 people. WTF? Who is the half of a black dude that supports RP?

[69360]

If Newt is "crashing on schedule" that's great.

If he isn't, that's bad.

Someone might want to make a tv commercial trashing Newt, in case he doesn't crash on schedule.

There's virtually no positive press for newt. It's about 90% negative.

[69360]

SC poll is the same way. RP got 59.2% of 16 black votes. That.s 9.472 people. WTF? Who is the half of a black dude that supports RP?

Margin of error. The black gop vote in SC is virtually non-existant, so don't worry about it.

[parocks]

Previous poll from 11/8 in Parentheses

Iowa
Gingrich 28% (15%) +13
Paul 13% (11%) +2
Romney 12% (19%) -7
Bachmann 10% (5%) +5
Cain 10% (23%) -13
Perry 7% (9%) -2
Santorum 3% (3%) --
Huntsman -- (--) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_Iowa_GOP_1129.pdf

South Carolina
Gingrich 38% (19%) +19
Romney 15% (16) -1
Cain 13% (26%) -13
Paul 7% (3%) +4
Perry 4% (6%) -2
Bachmann 3% (5%) -2
Santorum 2% (2%) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_GOP_1129.pdf

Never been a huge fan of their polls because they sorely lack information and their cross tabs are usually pretty ridiculous.

But nice to see positive traction in a typically unfavorable pollster (albeit a small increase...it is an increase!)


According to these polls, we are still absolutely crushing it with 18-29 year old men, and have little support anywhere else.

What are we doing to get those 18-29 year old men to the polls?

[dude58677]

South Carolina voted for Nikki Taylor, so it can be a State where Ron Paul can win.

[SchleckBros]

That poll is OLD, it is dated from November 8.

It says it was conducted yesterday.

[parocks]

Iowa
total 18-29 30-45 46-64 65+
Paul 13.3 46.8 15.2 5.6 6.5


Our votes are with 18-29. We need to get them to vote. they usually don't. WE have to work hard to identify them, or, if we don't, just get all of them to vote.

Men Women
19.0 7.8

Men are twice as likely to support as women.

So, 18-29, men. Get them to the polls. They usually don't vote. They like us, but they don't vote. We need them to vote. We need to work to do this.

Same as South Carolina.


South Carolina

total 18-29 30-45 46-64 65+
Paul 6.9 29.4 5.0 1.7 2.9

In South Carolina, it appears ONLY 18-29 likes us.

men women
11.9 1.9

In South Carolina, it appears ONLY Men like us.

We have to do real, actual work to get 18-29 year old men to the polls.

What is that thing that we're doing to do that? What is the name of that project?

[parocks]

There's virtually no positive press for newt. It's about 90% negative.

We know that we need that crash. I would think having a nasty tv commercial about all the adultery and divorce in the can, ready if necessary would be good.

[69360]

We know that we need that crash. I would think having a nasty tv commercial about all the adultery and divorce in the can, ready if necessary would be good.

No, Ron is not the one to go negative on personal issues. Let somebody like frothy do it.

At some point going negative on policy flops might be effective if Newt is still a front runner in about 2 weeks, which I doubt.

[parocks]

No, Ron is not the one to go negative on personal issues. Let somebody like frothy do it.

At some point going negative on policy flops might be effective if Newt is still a front runner in about 2 weeks, which I doubt.

I'm talking grassroots. Not official campaign. And I'm not talking about running it now. If these are the numbers on December 26, and we don't have a plan to take Newt down then, and we don't have a program to get our kids to vote, we're in trouble.

[bluesc]

I'm talking grassroots. Not official campaign. And I'm not talking about running it now. If these are the numbers on December 26, and we don't have a plan to take Newt down then, and we don't have a program to get our kids to vote, we're in trouble.

These aren't even Newt's numbers now. The poll is BS.

[PaulConventionWV]

SC poll is the same way. RP got 59.2% of 16 black votes. That.s 9.472 people. WTF? Who is the half of a black dude that supports RP?

Maybe he wasn't "full black"...

[limequat]

Margin of error. The black gop vote in SC is virtually non-existant, so don't worry about it.

No, dude, look again. There were 16 black dudes in the sample. If 9 polled for RP his % would be 56.3%. If 10, 62.5%. But they publish 59.2%.

Unless there is something I'm missing, I wanna say this data is not only manipulated, but it is verifiably manipulated.

[69360]

No, dude, look again. There were 16 black dudes in the sample. If 9 polled for RP his % would be 56.3%. If 10, 62.5%. But they publish 59.2%.

Unless there is something I'm missing, I wanna say this data is not only manipulated, but it is verifiably manipulated.

It really doesn't matter. You're chasing a ghost. Black GOP vote in SC doesn't exist.

[limequat]

It really doesn't matter. You're chasing a ghost. Black GOP vote in SC doesn't exist.

I only used the black guys as a convenient example. It's all demographics for all candidates in both the SC and Iowa poll.