Where is this election headed? (as far as candidates dropping out)

[RileyE104]

The current top tier is Romney v. Gingrich v. Paul -- and while we all know the future of these campaigns are depending on how they perform in the early states, let's take a look at the middle and bottom tier candidates...

As for Cain, his campaign is very much depending on doing good in Iowa, especially after the string of accusations lobbed against him. If he does poorly in Iowa, I don't see him staying in much longer. He might ride it out until after Florida votes since he won the straw poll there but if he doesn't do good in Iowa and South Carolina, he's finished IMO. If/when he drops out, I could see him endorsing Gingrich because of the simple fact that he endorsed Romney in 2008.

The campaigns of Bachmann and Santorum are completely riding on Iowa because that's where they've spent most of their efforts. If neither of them do good there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop out and support Gingrich. For Santorum, it's because he obviously does not have a favorable opinion of either Romney or Paul and he definitely doesn't like Cain's 9-9-9 plan. For Bachmann, I do believe there's a chance she would endorse Paul but as for Romney and Cain, we all know she dislikes them just as Santorum does.

As for Huntsman, he is depending on a good performance in New Hampshire. This may be stereotypical of me, but if he doesn't do good there and decides to drop out, I could see him endorsing Romney. I don't see a reason why he would endorse Gingrich UNLESS he simply does it out of spite towards Romney. MAYBE he would endorse Paul (and that's a BIG maybe) due to certain opinions of which we all know he holds, but it seems unlikely.

It's hard (at least for me) to see where Gov. Perry's campaign is depending on, although I believe that after he does poorly in Iowa/NH/SC, he will most likely drop out. Again, there's a wild-card chance that he will endorse Paul. But other than that, he'd most likely go with Gingrich IMO. Especially since just like Bachmann and Santorum, he strongly opposes Cain's 9-9-9 plan.

Whether or not Gingrich does poorly, I don't see him dropping out at all. It's often been joked that he doesn't want to be President and that he just shows up to debate. I actually find that very accurate. :p

As for Romney, I don't really see him dropping out either unless Paul can pull a surprise win in New Hampshire.

Now, I saved this for last since it's highly unlikely IMO, but if Paul doesn't do good in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, he is most likely going to drop out.

[rideurlightning]

Bachmann will not endorse Paul. She is just another warmongering shill.

[RileyE104]

Bachmann will not endorse Paul. She is just another warmongering shill.

I recognize that, but there's a small, small chance she would.
After all, she supposedly agrees with Dr. Paul on Austrian Economics.

Also, there was this from 2009:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACL1bWgBlKY

[bbartlog]

if Paul doesn't do good in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, he is most likely going to drop out.

Paul drop out? Hardly. This is a war of ideas as well as a presidential campaign, you know. Every time that Paul shows up to debate and calls for an end to the war on drugs or an end to the war on terror or an audit of the Fed, our cause is advanced a little bit. Look how many of his ideas they have already been forced to steal.

As for the others - I expect Santorum and Perry to drop after failing in Iowa. I believe both of them are pretty well hanging around so that they can exit with grace (dropping out prematurely makes you look like a wimp, after all, and pisses of your donors). Not sure about anyone else.

[Lisa100]

None of the candidates will endorse Ron, unfortunately.

[69360]

There is no reason to drop out in this race. The internent, the media pumping up candidates, the 24 hour media cycle and the endless debates are like free campaigning.

You could see 6-8 candidates on super Tuesday.

[FreeTraveler]

There is no reason to drop out in this race. The internent, the media pumping up candidates, the 24 hour media cycle and the endless debates are like free campaigning.

You could see 6-8 candidates on super Tuesday.
It takes a serious ground game to pull the undecideds and soft votes, and they're huge this time around. Most of the candidates don't have the money for the ground game. Romney, Perry and Paul at the moment. The Grinch is out collecting, I guess, but he was hurting for money not long ago. The rest will run out of funds and start losing staff, and when that happens they'll sink fast.

[69360]

It takes a serious ground game to pull the undecideds and soft votes, and they're huge this time around. Most of the candidates don't have the money for the ground game. Romney, Perry and Paul at the moment. The Grinch is out collecting, I guess, but he was hurting for money not long ago. The rest will run out of funds and start losing staff, and when that happens they'll sink fast.

But there's no reason to quit. They will still be all over the news, still be in the debates even polling 1 percent and still looking for the next media push.

[RileyE104]

Paul drop out? Hardly. This is a war of ideas as well as a presidential campaign, you know. Every time that Paul shows up to debate and calls for an end to the war on drugs or an end to the war on terror or an audit of the Fed, our cause is advanced a little bit. Look how many of his ideas they have already been forced to steal.

Dr. Paul has repeatedly stated that bad performance in the early states would discourage him from continuing the campaign; and how can you blame him? However, as I stated in my OP, this is highly unlikely to happen. He WILL do good in the early states, therefore he WONT be dropping out.



As for the others - I expect Santorum and Perry to drop after failing in Iowa. I believe both of them are pretty well hanging around so that they can exit with grace (dropping out prematurely makes you look like a wimp, after all, and pisses of your donors). Not sure about anyone else.

I agree with your analysis on Santorum. He has put everything he has and if he doesn't come in at least 5th place, he will for sure drop out. As for Perry, I can see him staying in until after South Carolina votes, simply because that's where he started his campaign if I remember correctly.



There is no reason to drop out in this race. The internent, the media pumping up candidates, the 24 hour media cycle and the endless debates are like free campaigning.

This is true to some extent for candidates such as Romney, Cain, Perry and Gingrich.
But other candidates such as Santorum, Bachmann and Huntsman who have put everything they've got into a single state (Iowa for Santorum and Bachmann and New Hampshire for Huntsman), I could very well see them dropping out if they fail to do well.



IMost of the candidates don't have the money for the ground game. Romney, Perry and Paul at the moment. The Grinch is out collecting, I guess, but he was hurting for money not long ago. The rest will run out of funds and start losing staff, and when that happens they'll sink fast.

I completely agree. As far as funding goes; Romney, Perry, Paul, Cain and Gingrich are going to define the race.

However, as I said in my OP, I don't see Perry getting that far. I also don't see Cain making it past January unless he does good in Florida.

As far as Gingrich goes, if he doens't get enough money in time and start to build his ground game - I see him going the same way as Perry.


This is what we want though! Come Super Tuesday, we want there to be a top-tier of two people; Romney and Paul.
Of course, there will probably be middle-tier candidates in the race still. Most likely Gingrich. Maybe Cain and maybe Perry.
I personally suspect that Bachmann and Santorum and probably Huntsman will be long gone after January/February.

[bbartlog]

But there's no reason to quit. They will still be all over the news, still be in the debates even polling 1 percent and still looking for the next media push.

Usually, one of the other campaigns (whoever thinks they will be the ones to get the votes of the quitter) will offer some inducement. Or it can be indirect, from the RNC or the like. Look at the history in 1996. Everybody was strong-armed into dropping out and endorsing Dole, just so that Buchanan could be stopped.
Even without that, it's embarrassing and of course still tiring (and possibly expensive) to continue past a certain point.

[69360]

Usually, one of the other campaigns (whoever thinks they will be the ones to get the votes of the quitter) will offer some inducement. Or it can be indirect, from the RNC or the like. Look at the history in 1996. Everybody was strong-armed into dropping out and endorsing Dole, just so that Buchanan could be stopped.
Even without that, it's embarrassing and of course still tiring (and possibly expensive) to continue past a certain point.

That was 1996. There is so much free hype up for grabs now, why quit?

[wstrucke]

I recognize that, but there's a small, small chance she would.
After all, she supposedly agrees with Dr. Paul on Austrian Economics.

Also, there was this from 2009:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACL1bWgBlKY

Wow. I have never seen this side of Michele Bachmann. Is it possible that this has been planned all along? What if Ron made a deal with Michele last year that they would both run and if she dropped out, she would get SoS or VP in his campaign? What about Palin? What if we get both endorsements after an Iowa win?

I'm not delusional, but it's interesting to think of the possibility. I sincerely hope the campaign is doing this type of dealing in the background, they can't sit idly by and wait for endorsements and money to come in.

[FreeTraveler]

You can't run a campaign for zero dollars. Seriously. At some point the money starts coming out of the candidate's pocket. If office or campaign staff are let go, it's big news at that point, and contributions often dry up faster, making a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's happened to any number of candidates.

[wstrucke]

...He WILL do good in the early states... unless he does good in Florida.

I love what you are saying man, +1, but honestly -- "do well" and "does well". It doesn't sound correct with the wrong word and dilutes your message.

[leffewture]

none of the other candidates will endorse Ron.


Sarah Palin however, may. If she doesn't her anti-establishment rep that shes been carrying well lately will go out the window. no true fiscal conservative wants to keep expanding the empire.

[J_White]

Santorum and Bachmann would most probably drop after Iowa, unless one of them pulls a rabbit out of their hat !
Huntsman would probably go after NH, unless he has a good showing there.
Perry and Cain soon after - as someone already said, SC for Perry and FL for Cain.
Depends on when Newt implodes and gets back to his 10% - we still have a month, so I am supposing the flavor would change by then.
I think the merry go round is about to stop and in Jan the media would declare their "nominee".
I hope Dr.Paul would do good !!

[wstrucke]

none of the other candidates will endorse Ron.


Sarah Palin however, may. If she doesn't her anti-establishment rep that shes been carrying well lately will go out the window. no true fiscal conservative wants to keep expanding the empire.

The thing is, most conservative American's have been on board with cutting future spending == fiscal conservatism, or simply cutting taxes. It's idiotic, but when you get most of your news from the MSM and the argument is painted as democrats versus republicans, you make assumptions. Cutting $10 million sounds like a lot when it's completely out of context.