Ron Paul Polling Third in Iowa and New Hampshire

[Matt Collins]

Ron Paul Polling Third in Iowa and New Hampshire

Solid showing among the Hawkeye and Granite
States’ likely GOP caucus-goers and primary voters





LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls third among likely Republican caucus-goers in the key first-in-nation state of Iowa, according to a recent American Research Group poll (http://iowaforronpaul.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=af10358490fc15b52a962f667&id=a385101a7a&e=faeada51fb) , and different angles to this survey reveal his support may keep him anchored in third place or higher.



Congressman Paul also polls third in New Hampshire, according to a recent WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll (http://iowaforronpaul.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=af10358490fc15b52a962f667&id=5d779e8e1e&e=faeada51fb).

In Iowa, Congressman Paul garnered 16 percent of the likely Republican caucus goers surveyed, on the heels of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich who earned 20 and 27 percent, respectively. Paul’s third-place showing in the poll is far ahead of past and aspiring top-three competitors. Pizza baron Herman Cain, Rep. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum all earned a modest 6 percent of the vote, Texas Gov. Rick Perry earned a mere 5 percent, and just 3 percent of respondents selected Jon Huntsman. The ARG poll also notes that among likely caucus goers who are already enrolled in the Republican Party, Paul remains a strong third place with 14 percent of the vote, with Gingrich and Romney at 30 and 17 percent, respectively.

Also in Iowa, voter self-identification with the Tea Party, or lack thereof, both help Paul remain in the top three or better: Among likely Republican caucus-goers saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, Paul polls in second place with 19 percent. Among likely caucus-goers saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Paul polls third with 12 percent. The poll of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted over November 17th to the 23rd and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

In New Hampshire, Congressman Paul is holding strong in third place, within the margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent for second place in this survey of 665 randomly selected adults. Among likely New Hampshire Republican Primary voters, Paul polls at 12 percent behind Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich who earned 42 and 15 percent, respectively. As in the Iowa poll, the WMUR/UNH poll shows that other Republican presidential hopefuls failing to place in the top three have modest single-digit results.

“These poll results demonstrate that Ron Paul’s support in Iowa and New Hampshire is loyal, solid, and diverse, not subject to the media and pundit-fueled ‘flavor of the week’ whims. As the finish line approaches, we’re hopeful for a strong showing that reflects this strong base of support and its steadily growing numbers,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.

[bluesc]

So Ron was wrong about the internal numbers showing him tied for first? Why put a press release out mentioning his worst recent Iowa poll?

[sailingaway]

What was wrong with polling in second and tied for first that we want to send out a press release on this? Anyhow, these were last week, weren't they? The media has already been issued on them.

[LibertyEagle]

What was wrong with polling in second and tied for first that we want to send out a press release on this?

Ditto. What gives?

[kylejack]

I don't think Ron Paul said he was tied for first, I think some people misinterpreted what he said.

[rp08orbust]

What was wrong with polling in second and tied for first that we want to send out a press release on this? Anyhow, these were last week, weren't they? The media has already been issued on them.

I was kind of baffled at the campaign (and Matt) posting this as well; the only advantage I can see is that it keeps Ron Paul underestimated.

[bluesc]

I don't think Ron Paul said he was tied for first, I think some people misinterpreted what he said.

He said "what the polls are showing now is confirming what we've been seeing for a while now in our internal numbers"

[SchleckBros]

Why would the campaign pick the worst poll? Doesn't make any sense to me considering there were more favorable polls.

[sailingaway]

I don't think Ron Paul said he was tied for first, I think some people misinterpreted what he said.

RevPac (the latest media on a poll) had him tied for first, or in first, depending on if you only looked at GOP or not, and while it was somewhat discounted as being from RevPac, it was shortly after the gold standard of polls for the Iowa Caucuses found essentially a 4 way tie with Ron in second behind Cain by one point, and ahead of Romney by by a similar margin. So that was the last media, and while this stuff is out there too, making a big deal of it just seems to me to be dragging the narrative DOWN.

[Sola_Fide]

I was kind of baffled at the campaign (and Matt) posting this as well; the only advantage I can see is that it keeps Ron Paul underestimated.

Hmmm.

[JoshLowry]

I don't think Ron Paul said he was tied for first, I think some people misinterpreted what he said.

He is basically tied for first in Iowa per a recent Bloomberg poll. (11/14)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html


A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away.

[sailingaway]

He is basically tied for first in Iowa per a recent Bloomberg poll. (11/14)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html

and that is the same pollster the Des Moines Register uses.

[rp08orbust]

This is especially a weird press release when the campaign's publicized goal for the ad blitz was to put them in 2nd in IA and NH and there is solid evidence this was achieved.

[Havax]

Stupid move by the campaign to do this. We are about a month away from the fate of the campaign. Need positive press showing us as viable.

[Endthefednow]

I am lost the polls are just not reliable, but I do know one thing. WE MUST KEEP WORKING and not give up if a poll shows Ron Paul at
the top. Purchase more super voter brochures lets blanket Iowa along with the few people who have time to make calls we can do it!!:D

[kylejack]

He said "what the polls are showing now is confirming what we've been seeing for a while now in our internal numbers"
In particular, I don't think he used the word "internal". I think he said "our polls" meaning, our standing in the polls. He was distracted a bit by a CBS cameramen who was shoving the reporter he was talking to.

[kylejack]

He is basically tied for first in Iowa per a recent Bloomberg poll. (11/14)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html
Agree, but the situation is fluid, and more recent polls have not been quite as clear. Cain is on the way out and Gingrich is surging.

[bluesc]

In particular, I don't think he used the word "internal". I think he said "our polls" meaning, our standing in the polls. He was distracted a bit by a CBS cameramen who was shoving the reporter he was talking to.

He said the same thing in multiple interviews. He meant the internals, as he specifically used the word "internal" on at least one occasion. He is tied for first in Iowa.

[speciallyblend]

I was kind of baffled at the campaign (and Matt) posting this as well; the only advantage I can see is that it keeps Ron Paul underestimated.

this is what i am thinking^^^^^^^^^^

[Johncjackson]

3rd is "viable." He is top tier and beating Perry and all those other has-beens. Touting poll results funded by supporters probably wouldn't go over so well.

[Matt Collins]

It's showing solid, steady support. These polls came out during the holiday break and, especially the Iowa one, they show Ron is in the top 3 while previously-serious other candidates down in the low single digits.

[RileyE104]

My bet is the campaign released this because too many people on our side think Dr. Paul has this in the bag.
If this press release has any effect it should be to energize everyone to work even harder.

[asurfaholic]

This is nice. Seems not too long ago most of these polls were showing 9, 11% tops. Glad to see the base number is increasing, the high numbers will come soon. Hopefully before iowa the national numbers start to really pick up. I hate seeing 4s and 5s. 9 and 10% national is nice, and I am thinking soon we could see it work up to what we see in iowa.

[LibertyEagle]

I am lost the polls are just not reliable, but I do know one thing. WE MUST KEEP WORKING and not give up if a poll shows Ron Paul at
the top. Purchase more super voter brochures lets blanket Iowa along with the few people who have time to make calls we can do it!!:D

Or, donate to the campaign so that they can finish executing their strategy. They have developed the message that will work on Iowa voters and know how to best deliver it so that we will actually win over people, rather than run them away.

We are passionate, but we don't have one single clue about how to win elections. The campaign does.

[Feelgood]

Umm IMO this poll sucks!

[kylejack]

We are passionate, but we don't have one single clue about how to win elections. The campaign does.
The latter is debatable. But they are doing better than last cycle by miles.

[icon124]

Ron Paul seems like he used these polls because it talks just about republicans..

We know he hits the inde crowd hard and can draw disgruntled dems, but if we can poll in the top solid three with just republicans that probably means a close first when everything is mixed in.

[ZanZibar]

Umm IMO this poll sucks!Then let's make some more phone calls! :D

[VictorB]

Small sample size and it is only likely Republican caucus goers. Everyone knows that Ron Paul has a large section of Indie's and Dem's that are going to vote for him. That is why we see some polls with him at 12% and others with him at 20%.

Let people keep thinking that he is at 12% because when we win, it's going to shock a lot of people, and that is the type of shock we need to wake some folks in other states up.

[Knightmare]

We need BOOTS ON THE GROUND in Iowa... NOW!

[RP Supporter]

I think Paul probably wants to be underestimated. The more the official campaign downplays his strength, the better it looks if he does win Iowa, since not even the campaign will have been pushing that narrative. I don't necessarily agree with the strategy, but its something alot of campaigns do. There's no real point in Paul declaring he's has a good shot at winning or coming a close second in Iowa if the media will just dismiss it. Here the campaign can say "We knew we'd do good in Iowa, but even we were not expecting first. This goes to show voters are coming around to Dr. Paul."

[Paulitics 2011]

We have a chance at winning, but we're going to have to work for it.

Keep drilling Gingrich and Romney, and keep helping Paul.

[ItsTime]

Why are they still polling Palin?!?!

[JohnGalt23g]

Does the phrase "lowering expectations" mean anything to y'all?

[speciallyblend]

Does the phrase "lowering expectations" mean anything to y'all?

nope ,unless you mean keeping supporters motivated to go to caucus. Then the goal is to make sure you tell everyone it is close and we could lose. When folks assume your gonna win. It gives folks reasons not to show to caucus! This is a way to keep the motivation up to attend and make sure Ron paul Wins, pretty much that simple!

[69360]

We are passionate, but we don't have one single clue about how to win elections.

You don't speak for all of us.

[J_White]

More Phone calls, more canvassing !!

[low preference guy]

Then let's make some more phone calls! :D

I hate it when somebody with two accounts posts with both accounts in the same thread! How about having a discussion with yourself?

[specsaregood]

I hate it when somebody with two accounts posts with both accounts in the same thread! How about having a discussion with yourself?

I hate that the ignore feature doesn't also hide quotes from multiple-entity trolls that you have on ignore.

[PaulConventionWV]

We need BOOTS ON THE GROUND in Iowa... NOW!

Christmas vacation with Ron Paul in Iowa. Sign up.