Christopher David
11-27-2011, 02:39 PM
With the fluidity of the GOP presidential race, the heavily back-loaded primary calendar, and the rule changes emphasizing proportional allocation of delegates, candidates will be incentivized to stay in the race as long as possible.
If the race extends to June, the California primary could very likely decide the GOP nomination.
Currently California has 172 delegates, one of the few states planning to award delegates by winner-take-all.
If Ron Paul wins first, second or third in every contest until June, then goes on to win California, he will likely have the delegate count to win the GOP nomination.
Do the math:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/27/mitt-romney-2012-gop-primary-calendar_n_1114117.html?
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/wddaa.phtml
There are approximately 2,427 delegates up for grabs in the 2012 Republican primary, but a number of states who broke Republican National Committee rules and moved their primaries forward will likely see their delegate totals halved. So the actual number of total delegates will probably be 2,284, meaning a candidate will have to win 1,143 to clinch the nomination.
Through January and February, according to the website TheGreenPapers.com, only 334 delegates will be awarded. Super Tuesday will add only 599 more -- a total of just 41 percent of all delegates.
RNC rule changes this year encouraged states to delay their primaries until later in the year. Some of the states with the most delegates won't vote until late spring or even as late as the summer. New York and Pennsylvania will award their 95 and 72 delegates, respectively, on April 24. California's mother lode of 172 delegates won't be up for grabs until June 5.
Meanwhile, the first events in Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early states will kick off in early January on roughly the same schedule as four years ago.
The new RNC rules have also shifted some states to a more proportional awarding of delegates, making the process similar to the Democratic model. The largest state to vote on Super Tuesday is Texas, which awards 155 delegates -- but Texas has chosen to award its delegates proportionally. So a few candidates, not just one, could reap healthy delegate yields in the Lone Star state.
The consequence of these rule changes is the least front-loaded primary calendar in decades, featuring the longest-ever gap between Iowa and Super Tuesday.
Not only is the primary calendar more spread out, but some think the states voting on Super Tuesday add up to a slate that does not favor Romney.
In a scenario where a candidate other than Romney has survived January and February and heads into March with some momentum, "Romney's candidacy would be at great risk on Super Tuesday when southern and border state voting could vault a conservative challenger to Romney to a strong delegate lead that Romney might never erase," said Jeffrey G. Berman, who was national delegate director for Obama's 2008 campaign.
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) will also likely be a significant factor, especially in a long primary. Paul polls well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and more importantly, his campaign is organizing in many of the caucus states where candidates can win many or all of the state's delegates with an intense effort from a committed base, a description that captures Paul's supporters.
1,143 delegates (out of 2,427) are needed to win the nomination.
If the delegates awarded before June are split between Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Cain and Paul, with Ron coming in first, second or third in every contest until June, and Paul wins the 172 delegates in California on June 5th, he could VERY LIKELY win the nomination.
We just need to make sure Romney doesn't achieve shut-out victory in the early states.
So go make calls. :)
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com
If the race extends to June, the California primary could very likely decide the GOP nomination.
Currently California has 172 delegates, one of the few states planning to award delegates by winner-take-all.
If Ron Paul wins first, second or third in every contest until June, then goes on to win California, he will likely have the delegate count to win the GOP nomination.
Do the math:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/27/mitt-romney-2012-gop-primary-calendar_n_1114117.html?
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/wddaa.phtml
There are approximately 2,427 delegates up for grabs in the 2012 Republican primary, but a number of states who broke Republican National Committee rules and moved their primaries forward will likely see their delegate totals halved. So the actual number of total delegates will probably be 2,284, meaning a candidate will have to win 1,143 to clinch the nomination.
Through January and February, according to the website TheGreenPapers.com, only 334 delegates will be awarded. Super Tuesday will add only 599 more -- a total of just 41 percent of all delegates.
RNC rule changes this year encouraged states to delay their primaries until later in the year. Some of the states with the most delegates won't vote until late spring or even as late as the summer. New York and Pennsylvania will award their 95 and 72 delegates, respectively, on April 24. California's mother lode of 172 delegates won't be up for grabs until June 5.
Meanwhile, the first events in Iowa, New Hampshire and the other early states will kick off in early January on roughly the same schedule as four years ago.
The new RNC rules have also shifted some states to a more proportional awarding of delegates, making the process similar to the Democratic model. The largest state to vote on Super Tuesday is Texas, which awards 155 delegates -- but Texas has chosen to award its delegates proportionally. So a few candidates, not just one, could reap healthy delegate yields in the Lone Star state.
The consequence of these rule changes is the least front-loaded primary calendar in decades, featuring the longest-ever gap between Iowa and Super Tuesday.
Not only is the primary calendar more spread out, but some think the states voting on Super Tuesday add up to a slate that does not favor Romney.
In a scenario where a candidate other than Romney has survived January and February and heads into March with some momentum, "Romney's candidacy would be at great risk on Super Tuesday when southern and border state voting could vault a conservative challenger to Romney to a strong delegate lead that Romney might never erase," said Jeffrey G. Berman, who was national delegate director for Obama's 2008 campaign.
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) will also likely be a significant factor, especially in a long primary. Paul polls well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and more importantly, his campaign is organizing in many of the caucus states where candidates can win many or all of the state's delegates with an intense effort from a committed base, a description that captures Paul's supporters.
1,143 delegates (out of 2,427) are needed to win the nomination.
If the delegates awarded before June are split between Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Cain and Paul, with Ron coming in first, second or third in every contest until June, and Paul wins the 172 delegates in California on June 5th, he could VERY LIKELY win the nomination.
We just need to make sure Romney doesn't achieve shut-out victory in the early states.
So go make calls. :)
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com