Is the Calculus Changing?

[CaptUSA]

I think we all thought this race was going to come down to the race between Romney and the anti-Romney. I'm starting to sense that this may not be the way this race turns out. Romney is becoming more and more dismissed by the media. When the media stops speaking of Romney in terms of the inevitable, his big money donors will find it harder and harder to give. Since Romney's whole campaign is relying on media and big money (since he has no traction in the grass roots), it seems like the race may be shifting. Romney may crumble out of the gates once the primaries begin.

This thing may come down to Gingrich vs. Paul! Romney may just be a spoiler - and he won't be a spoiler for Paul!

I'm not making a prediction, yet, but it may very well become a possibility.

So I thought it might be fun to examine how things may play out in this scenario. I'd expect Paul to get another big boost when they bring out the "Christmas Carol" strategy. (That being Carol Paul around Christmas time - this will draw the contrast between Gingrich and Paul starkly.) I'd also expect Cain to drop out and endorse Gingrich. After Paul wins Iowa, I'd expect Bachman and Santorum to drop out. Santorum will endorse Gingrich, but we may have a chance with Bachman. Gingrich will end up offering a position to Romney after NH in order to get him to drop out. (It would be political suicide for Romney to hold on at this point.)

So now we're heading into the south (SC, FL) with Paul and Gingrich. This will become a very tough fight if Gingrich is still riding this tide. At this point, it will come down to the "E" word - "electability". Personally, I don't think there's any possible scenario where gingrich beats Obama. But if we're going to have any strategy in this scenario, it should be to demonstrate how Gingrich will hand the election to Obama.

[Muwahid]

They want a Newt Romney fight. FOX NEWS:

GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich has received the endorsement of the influential New Hampshire newspaper 'The Manchester Union Leader,' which could give Gingrich an edge in the state against rival Mitt Romney.

http://www.polyvore.com/cgi/img-thing?.out=jpg&size=l&tid=26855068

[trey4sports]

Newt wont get past Iowa. He has serious issues in his past. If he is perceived as a real threat then the campaign will need to go on the attack. The question is should we do it late or early? Doing it late would probably cause his people to stay home on election day but if we do it nice and early then his people would jump ship, but who would they go to?


As for Mittens... it looks like there might be trouble in paradise.

[69360]

Newt is toast. He has maybe 2 weeks left in the limelight.

The strategists and pundits have been quietly admitting this is a Romney v. Paul race for a while.

[brendan.orourke]

1 gaffe from Romney and he is toast. That's how soft his support is, although it might be wide, it is not strong at all.

[69360]

Romney probably won't make any major gaffes. He's employing the McCain model from the last election. Stay quiet in the background not saying or doing much, avoid all controversy, let your rivals take each other out. He can be knocked off his game in a debate though, we've seen Perry do it with the lawn mowing and Ron do it with the military budget.

[MelissaWV]

I think some of you are missing the obvious.

It is basically December, and we have a steady field of:

Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Perry Romney Cain Paul Gingrich

That's eight candidates, whether some of them are laughable or not.

They are there to muddy the waters and possibly carry a delegate or two. Once this is done, and Super Tuesday rolls around, those that are left (and I am not saying all eight will be left) will be free to drop out and endorse someone else. Their delegates will also be released.

Frankly, with so many people in it, if the GOP doesn't decide one of these folks should be President, then the Convention can nominate and choose someone entirely different. There are a lot of scenarios still out there.

All we can do is get Ron to the GOP Convention with as much name-recognition, media coverage, money, and delegates as we can.

[acptulsa]

Is the calculus changing? Well, throughout my lifetime, the cauculus has been that the media can choose who is a contender and who is not.

Hoo boy, have we changed the cauculus in the last four years!!


All we can do is get Ron to the GOP Convention with as much name-recognition, media coverage, money, and delegates as we can.

The fallback calculus is that The Establishment owns the smoke-filled rooms. This is another calculus we had better be prepared to change!

[MelissaWV]

Is the calculus changing? Well, throughout my lifetime, the cauculus has been that the media can choose who is a contender and who is not.

Hoo boy, have we changed the cauculus in the last four years!!



The fallback calculus is that The Establishment owns the smoke-filled rooms. This is another calculus we had better be prepared to change!

Agreed, and many of us talked about this as 2008 was decided against us. There are some areas where progress was made, but yet I have very little hope the "GOP establishment" types that get about 3 delegates automatically per state will be Ron Paul people.

[jason43]

If it came down to the convention nominating the candidate, Paul would win. He tends to do best when people have to show up to vote, and the convention is basically a big straw poll.

I agree that Romney is becoming irrelevant. It will be Paul vs someone else. Maybe Gingrich, but the media is pumping huntsman lately.

[acptulsa]

If it came down to the convention nominating the candidate, Paul would win. He tends to do best when people have to show up to vote, and the convention is basically a big straw poll.

But remember--We make those straw poll victories happen. Our success or failure at the convention ultimately comes down to this: Will you be there?

[squirekyle]

Romney's not going anywhere soon. He did well in some states in '08. I agree with the people that say it will be a Paul Vs. Romney. Although if Herman drops out and endorses Gingrich it could turn into a three way race. We'll see in time though.

[trey4sports]

If it came down to the convention nominating the candidate, Paul would win. He tends to do best when people have to show up to vote, and the convention is basically a big straw poll.

I agree that Romney is becoming irrelevant. It will be Paul vs someone else. Maybe Gingrich, but the media is pumping huntsman lately.

no way it's Paul vs. Huntsman. Or even Paul vs. Gingrich. To me, it's either Paul vs. Romney down the stretch or Paul/Romney wins very very early.

[MelissaWV]

If it came down to the convention nominating the candidate, Paul would win. He tends to do best when people have to show up to vote, and the convention is basically a big straw poll.

I agree that Romney is becoming irrelevant. It will be Paul vs someone else. Maybe Gingrich, but the media is pumping huntsman lately.

No, it is not a big straw poll, unless you believe that somehow Ron will have a huge contingent of "stealth delegates." You do not just show up in Florida and vote for the GOP nominee.

[Tod]

Notice what happened when Cain's harassment charges came out......it took a while for his support to drop.

One person described it: they are staying on the ship until they see another ship to jump aboard. It may be that and it may also be that it takes a little while for the emotional ties to the candidate to break. Nobody like to admit that they were wrong, so they wait for the inevitable so they don't seem fickle and they first fight the validity of the charges, then they mourn, then they start to consider other options.

[acptulsa]

No, it is not a big straw poll, unless you believe that somehow Ron will have a huge contingent of "stealth delegates." You do not just show up in Florida and vote for the GOP nominee.

You don't even show up in Florida, pay a hundred bucks and vote for the G.O.P. nominee. You host a precinct meeting. You get together with your meetups and map out strategies. You go to the county, district and state G.O.P. conventions. And you vote for your delegates.

This is a republic. Some may want to take the 'public' out of republic, but they know what will happen if they do. If we want to keep the public in the republic, then we, the public, need to go to every Republican event. Just like that.

[MelissaWV]

You don't even show up in Florida, pay a hundred bucks and vote for the G.O.P. nominee. You host a precinct meeting. You get together with your meetups and map out strategies. You go to the county, district and state G.O.P. conventions. And you vote for your delegates.

This is a republic. Some may want to take the 'public' out of republic, but they know what will happen if they do. If we want to keep the public in the republic, then we, the public, need to go to every Republican event. Just like that.

The poster in question was talking about the nomination. You do not just randomly show up at the National Convention and vote, otherwise none of us would be bothering with this "primary" stuff.

[acptulsa]

The poster in question was talking about the nomination. You do not just randomly show up at the National Convention and vote, otherwise none of us would be bothering with this "primary" stuff.

I know. We at least have to battle the primaries down to a draw, with no candidate having a plurality of committed delegates, to make the convention the place where it gets decided. That said, I don't think this talk is putting the cart before the horse, either. These precinct meetings happen well before the primaries. We have to pay attention to both things now.

[sailingaway]

I think some of you are missing the obvious.

It is basically December, and we have a steady field of:

Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Perry Romney Cain Paul Gingrich

That's eight candidates, whether some of them are laughable or not.

They are there to muddy the waters and possibly carry a delegate or two. Once this is done, and Super Tuesday rolls around, those that are left (and I am not saying all eight will be left) will be free to drop out and endorse someone else. Their delegates will also be released.

Frankly, with so many people in it, if the GOP doesn't decide one of these folks should be President, then the Convention can nominate and choose someone entirely different. There are a lot of scenarios still out there.

All we can do is get Ron to the GOP Convention with as much name-recognition, media coverage, money, and delegates as we can.

Delegates are the huge point. We need as many delegates as possible.

[Aratus]

William Loeb III's ghost via the UNION LEADER lobbed hard at the Romney bandwagon.

this may not hand N.H on a silver platter to either Newt or Mitt but it may help us now.

[RIPLEYMOM]

They're holding out for Santorum. He's been on Greta Van Susteran's show more times than I can count. He's their wild card.

[Suzu]

Yes, it's very different this time. There are no winner-take-all states until April. Check the following post in which this point is elaborated in more detail: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?332788-just-on-fox&p=3782137&viewfull=1#post3782137

[MelissaWV]

Yes, it's very different this time. There are no winner-take-all states until April. Check the following post in which this point is elaborated in more detail: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?332788-just-on-fox&p=3782137&viewfull=1#post3782137

Florida is winner take all >.>

[Suzu]

Florida is winner take all >.>

Oops. How could I forget that??

No - wait - "Thanks to the new GOP rule, any primary or caucus held before April 1 must allocate
delegates proportionally". That's what's new!

[South Park Fan]

Oops. How could I forget that??

No - wait - "Thanks to the new GOP rule, any primary or caucus held before April 1 must allocate
delegates proportionally". That's what's new!

I believe Florida's an exception because they already broke the rules by holding their primary early.

[MelissaWV]

Oops. How could I forget that??

No - wait - "Thanks to the new GOP rule, any primary or caucus held before April 1 must allocate
delegates proportionally". That's what's new!

No, they broke that rule, and it is winner take all... but half the delegates.

[acptulsa]

Florida is winner take half--yet they're still talking about it in the press as if it's a mother lode. And probably will, unless somehow Ron Paul actually wins it. Then it will be a half sized prize of no importance whatsoever.

[seapilot]

William Loeb III's ghost via the UNION LEADER lobbed hard at the Romney bandwagon.

this may not hand N.H on a silver platter to either Newt or Mitt but it may help us now.

I think you are right. Newt and Romney are RINOs. Not much difference between the two and soft support for Romney will more than likely take a good percentage of his vote. Ron Paul could squeak out an upset if the votes are split enough in NH and he places well in Iowa.