PDA

View Full Version : TeleResearch Iowa Poll: Paul in 1st w/ 25% Full Results Here




trey4sports
11-23-2011, 09:42 PM
http://www.revolutionpac.com/iowa-poll-results/

69360
11-23-2011, 09:48 PM
34% of D and I's likely to crossover pick Ron! That's big.

FSP-Rebel
11-23-2011, 09:52 PM
Fox:

34% of D and I's likely to crossover pick Ron!
The Occupy movement supports him. Get it? After the vic in IA that is..

LibertyEsq
11-23-2011, 09:55 PM
Mitt actually gets 2x Dem support than Ron Paul, while Paul gets a huge plurality of Independents. If that doesn't shut up the Dick Morris leftist conspiracy theorists I don't know what will

NY-Dano
11-23-2011, 09:57 PM
Interesting... Ron gets 38% of Independents and only 9% of crossover Dems.

Cain, Romney, Gingrich tie with Dems at 18%

69360
11-23-2011, 09:59 PM
Fox:

The Occupy movement supports him. Get it? After the vic in IA that is..

No, they don't. They even went as far as to ban all talk of Ron.

From their site-


We do not support an election campaign for 2012. At all. We have removed election material for Obama, Paul, Warren, Paul, Cain, Paul, Perry, Paul, the green party, Paul, Nader, Paul, and did I mention Paul? The spamming by the Ron Lawl 2012 fan club was getting out of hand. We will continue to remove such material and any call for the Paul 2012 campaign will, at this point, be considered spamming. End of. We're tired of hearing about it.


So everyone needs to get over it and stop bringing occupy up. Only 2% of the few thousand occupy people are registered GOP voters. Associate with them and you get a few votes but lose hundreds of thousands of registered GOP primary voters that HATE occupy.

eleganz
11-23-2011, 10:05 PM
Wow I had a great time going over that poll...Iowa is proof that if most people came into direct contact with Ron Paul information and not through the media filter, they would find it favorably.

ryanmkeisling
11-23-2011, 10:13 PM
No, they don't. They even went as far as to ban all talk of Ron.

From their site-




So everyone needs to get over it and stop bringing occupy up. Only 2% of the few thousand occupy people are registered GOP voters. Associate with them and you get a few votes but lose hundreds of thousands of registered GOP primary voters that HATE occupy.

If thats the case than they can blame themselves for their collectivist leanings and the state of their country in a few years time. They can also blame their hate of people that disagree with them, OWS, Arabs, Mexicans, Blacks etc. etc. Your attempt to continually introduce divisiveness into this is definitely collectivist and perhaps a little racist. This is about saving our country not about what team your on. I just posted this another thread perhaps it will allow you to understand where other posters and RON PAUL are coming from:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYALxUfEmfQ

What you are talking about here is political bigotry and is the antithesis of freedom and freedom loving individuals.Fuck the GOP they are the primary reason the country is in the state it's in.

parocks
11-23-2011, 10:19 PM
http://www.revolutionpac.com/iowa-poll-results/

they talked to a lot of kids - kids didn't break to Ron overwhelmingly. And why to the 35+ use the internet for their news more than 18+ ?

FSP-Rebel
11-23-2011, 10:20 PM
So everyone needs to get over it and stop bringing occupy up. Only 2% of the few thousand occupy people are registered GOP voters. Associate with them and you get a few votes but lose hundreds of thousands of registered GOP primary voters that HATE occupy.
Duh, my point so and so. The lefters involved in the buttass movement aren't on our side yo. Ron doesn't lead that, yet repels them. Keep pushing the 2%, anything more? whoever u r

akalucas
11-23-2011, 10:25 PM
only a couple of things off with this poll concerning demographics. in 2008 iowa repub caucus 56% were male and 44% female. this poll weighs it 51% FEMALE and 49% male. Since Paul does better with males u can probably add 1%-2% to his numbers. Now for the bad. This poll says that the young voter will make up 30% of the vote. in 2008 it was about 15% of the votes and since Paul does better with the younger adults this is giving his numbers a bump. how much of a bump? well its 15% inflated and he is getting 25% of that, so a rough estimate is that by weighing the younger adults at 30% it is giving him a 3.75% bump BUT since according to the poll gingrich and cain also get a significant part of those young adults (22% vs 25% for Paul) then they will also go down as well if its not weighed at 30%, so they won't really gain from it being lower. to summarize this is a very good poll and shows that Paul is actually doing very well within all age groups. woot!

Tod
11-23-2011, 10:30 PM
I wonder if a Paul supporter is more likely to agree to participate in the poll than a supporter for another candidate and if so, how do they adjust for it?

The same could be asked for any candidate.

NY-Dano
11-23-2011, 10:31 PM
only a couple of things off with this poll concerning demographics. in 2008 iowa repub caucus 56% were male and 44% female. this poll weighs it 51% FEMALE and 49% male. Since Paul does better with males u can probably add 1%-2% to his numbers.

He did better among females in this poll...

mwkaufman
11-23-2011, 10:40 PM
Surprising to see Cain hold on to so much support, very different from the ARG poll conducted 11/17-11/23 that has him at 6%.

Interesting again how different this is from ARG which had Romney leading Paul 38% to 28% with independents, and Gingrich only garnering 3%. Somewhat surprising to me is how poorly Paul does with crossover Democrats, he picks up 9%, and the only candidate that does worse with them is Huntsman.

akalucas
11-23-2011, 10:43 PM
error

akalucas
11-23-2011, 10:44 PM
He did better among females in this poll...you're right...how strange. this goes against every other poll. perhaps more woman are starting to like him more because they are learning he was an obgyn and delivered thousands of babies. Wonder what recent polls say about the gender difference

sailingaway
11-23-2011, 10:52 PM
No, they don't. They even went as far as to ban all talk of Ron.

From their site-




So everyone needs to get over it and stop bringing occupy up. Only 2% of the few thousand occupy people are registered GOP voters. Associate with them and you get a few votes but lose hundreds of thousands of registered GOP primary voters that HATE occupy.

that was a single poster they are all across the board on it. They don't have a hive mind.

Jandrsn21
11-23-2011, 11:01 PM
I wonder if a Paul supporter is more likely to agree to participate in the poll than a supporter for another candidate and if so, how do they adjust for it?

The same could be asked for any candidate.

Yes we represent RP's campaign will you participate in a poll? Doubt it!

BUSHLIED
11-23-2011, 11:40 PM
It's very clear to me that the key to win in NH is to get out/reach the Independent voters, which should be Ron's natural constituency...38%of the Independents is huge considering that Independents make up the "majority" of voters.

(According to this article: hxxp://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/sep2010/db20100914_028133.htm)

Based on the data from 2010, the party affiliations are:

Undeclared: 395,733

Democrats: 270,826

GOP: 278,782

IF anyone is interested you can look here for the breakdown by County: hxxp://www.sos.nh.gov/general%202010/namessum-carr.pdf

Seems like a good place to pick up those independent voters is in Hillsborough County= 109,721 (think of the wards in Nashua and Manchester) and Rockingham County (Portsmouth, Salem area) = 93,049.

Anyway, NH is going to be tough but this new internal data is encouraging...

edit: although it looks like only 128 Independents indicated that they were unlikely to support obama which means that the amount of Independents voting in the 2012 GOP primary is going to be fairly low so there are not that many of them...which makes them so much more valuable to Ron.

Out of the entire sample 2137 respondents either support Obama or are not participating in the gop primary...

678*100/2983 = 22.7% GOP for this sample and among the 2010 election data 29.4% are GOP. The sample under-represented GOP voters by 6.7%...not bad.

TomtheTinker
11-23-2011, 11:49 PM
I wonder if a Paul supporter is more likely to agree to participate in the poll than a supporter for another candidate and if so, how do they adjust for it?

The same could be asked for any candidate. or less likely in some cases.

Aratus
11-24-2011, 12:03 AM
:toady::toady::toady::toady::toady::toady::toady:: toady::toady:

Aratus
11-24-2011, 12:04 AM
Warren = Ms. Elizabeth Warren, as in Senator Scott Brown's
possible challenger? OWS has a curious censorship policy...

South Park Fan
11-24-2011, 12:26 AM
I wonder if a Paul supporter is more likely to agree to participate in the poll than a supporter for another candidate and if so, how do they adjust for it?

The same could be asked for any candidate.

According to Nate Silver, internal polls tend to have a 6 point bias in favor of the candidate who commissioned the poll, so Paul is more likely at ~19%, which is consistent with the Bloomberg and ISU Polls

Agorism
11-24-2011, 12:53 AM
I think we need an immigration commercial in Iowa.

He doesn't need to promise a giant fence, but just defend his past record so people know he has been consistent.

Opposed Reagan amnesty in 1984
Opposed McCain-Kennedy amnesty

etc

hazek
11-24-2011, 02:36 AM
My biggest takeaway from this polls is this:

Likely Republican Caucus Attendees - Ron Paul Fav/Unfav Overall Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Very Favorable 22% 21% 23% 26% 24% 21% 13%
Somewhat Favorable 39% 41% 36% 33% 40% 38% 47%
Somewhat Unfavorable 19% 21% 17% 20% 15% 16% 24%
Very Unfavorable 15% 11% 20% 15% 18% 18% 8%
Ambivalent 5% 6% 5% 5% 2% 7% 8%


61% regard Ron either very favorably or somewhat favorably. That will be the key.

fatjohn
11-24-2011, 04:25 AM
I think this means that the campaign should put alot of attention on the states with open caucuses and primaries. The ones before super tuesday are: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Minnesota and Washington. If Paul finishes 1st or 2nd in most of these and perhaps wins an additional Nevada. He'll be all set to go into super tuesday competitively.

Bruno
11-24-2011, 07:26 AM
Heard local radio mention Ron Paul in first, mentioned this poll yesterday.

trey4sports
11-24-2011, 08:02 AM
I think we need an immigration commercial in Iowa.

He doesn't need to promise a giant fence, but just defend his past record so people know he has been consistent.

Opposed Reagan amnesty in 1984
Opposed McCain-Kennedy amnesty

etc


I think that would be a waste. Immigration is just not a big issue for GOP voters.