WMUR/UNH Poll - New Hampshire GOP Primary

[tsai3904]

New Hampshire (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/primary2012_primary112311.pdf)
11/15 - 11/20
413 likely Republican primary voters
+/-4.8%

Results in parenthesis are from the last New Hampshire (http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_fall_primary100711.pdf) poll conducted between 9/26 - 10/6.

Romney 42% (37%)
Gingrich 15% (4%)
Paul 12% (9%)
Huntsman 8% (8%)
Cain 4% (12%)
Perry 4% (4%)
Bachmann 2% (2%)
Santorum 1% (2%)

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 34 - 32% (12%)
35 to 49 - 19% (10%)
50 to 64 - 10% (8%)
65 and over - 6% (8%)


Man 13% (7%)
Woman 12% (11%)

[Fermli]

not bad I guess. The poll is already up on RCP.

[akalucas]

nice to see we are gaining 35 to 49 year olds and woman

[kylejack]

Nice to see Cain on an all-out fizzle.

[low preference guy]

women rule!

[trey4sports]

while it's not as high as other polls in NH the great thing is that he is moving upward.

[akalucas]

so what ever happened to the info that RevPac was going to release today concerning the poll they came out with yesterday? it would be nice to see those crosstabs

[FSP-Rebel]

Cain was doing better there before his pump-up and back where he belongs now. Grinch blew up decently and we mildly up-ticked on this poll. But Mr. Romney jumped more than he should have. There must be a way to put a damper on Mitt, his biz actions, and his supposed conservatism. This next-door-neighbor thing can't be the clincher..

[trey4sports]

so what ever happened to the info that RevPac was going to release today concerning the poll they came out with yesterday? it would be nice to see those crosstabs

good point! I forgot.

[kylejack]

Mitt's going to have a high baseline there, so I'm sure he's absolutely delighted that the conservatives haven't settled on an alternative to him.

[pauliticalfan]

Moving up.

[VictorB]

This is great news, IMO. Huntsman has poured all his money, time, and resources into NH and hasn't broken into double digits.

[trey4sports]

This is great news, IMO. Huntsman has poured all his money, time, and resources into NH and hasn't broken into double digits.

we could use that 8 percent too. Hopefully he sees the foolishness in his belief and supports Paul. I know he wont but it would be nice to see him have some conviction.

[akalucas]

oops

[akalucas]

good point! I forgot. found it!
http://www.revolutionpac.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/2011-1114-01-TeleResearch-Iowa-Poll-Final_Report.pdf

[Maverick]

nice to see we are gaining 35 to 49 year olds and woman

It's important to keep in mind that margin of error (MoE) plays a role in these numbers. The MoE of this poll is nearly 5%. That's pretty high, and could explain a lot of the swings for many candidates and their crosstabs. Romney's numbers this poll and last poll are within the MoE. Ron's numbers are within the MoE. The only candidates significantly outside the MoE when compared to the previous poll results are Cain and Gingrinch.

The change in 35 to 49 compared to the last poll is higher than the margin of error, and thus is probably significant. The numbers for women, however, are not. Ron could be as high as as 17% or as low as 7% with this group; the latter extreme would put him below the numbers for the last poll.

So remember, when you see poll results that look like this:

MoE: +/- 4.8%

Romney 42% (37%)
Gingrich 15% (4%)
Paul 12% (9%)
Huntsman 8% (8%)
Cain 4% (12%)
Perry 4% (4%)
Bachmann 2% (2%)
Santorum 1% (2%)

The real numbers could just as easily be:

Romney 37% (37%)
Paul 17% (9%)
Gingrich 12% (4%)
Cain 8% (12%)
Huntsman 6% (8%)
Bachmann 5% (2%)
Perry 3% (4%)
Santorum 2% (2%)

Or:

Romney 44% (37%)
Gingrich 19% (4%)
Huntsman 9% (8%)
Cain 8% (12%)
Paul 7% (9%)
Perry 7% (4%)
Bachmann 4% (2%)
Santorum 1% (2%)

[Epic]

The real numbers could just as easily be:

This is not true. That's not how statistics works. THe margin of error specifies a 95% confidence interval. The exact number matters.

[akalucas]

This is not true. That's not how statistics works. THe margin of error specifies a 95% confidence interval. The exact number matters. yup, at least thats how i learned it works but that was a long time ago lol. The further u go out on the edges of margin of error the more unlikely it is to happen.

[JohnGalt23g]

Cain was doing better there before his pump-up and back where he belongs now. Grinch blew up decently and we mildly up-ticked on this poll. But Mr. Romney jumped more than he should have. There must be a way to put a damper on Mitt, his biz actions, and his supposed conservatism. This next-door-neighbor thing can't be the clincher..

Ask Henry Cabot Lodge about that one. He won the New Hampshire primary as a MA resident, and he didn't come within 10000 miles of NH during the preimary.

[JohnGalt23g]

This is not true. That's not how statistics works. THe margin of error specifies a 95% confidence interval. The exact number matters.

I don't think so...

The MOE specifies a range in which the sample tells them the actual number lies. The confidence interval recognizes that, even under proper sampling conditions, there is still a 1 in 20 chance that the actual results lie outside the range predicted by the MOE.

[Karsten]

This shit will continue until there's an official anti-Northern Passage/Pro Paul mailing/tv/or radio campaign by the campaign.

[low preference guy]

This shit will continue until there's an official anti-Northern Passage/Pro Paul mailing/tv/or radio campaign by the campaign.

or the grassroots?

[parocks]

This shit will continue until there's an official anti-Northern Passage/Pro Paul mailing/tv/or radio campaign by the campaign.

Do you really think this issue resonates beyond the North Country, or Coos county, or whatever it's called.

Romney does very well in Rockingham county, which is pretty much Boston Suburbs.