ARG IOWA POLL - Gingrich 27%, Romney 20%, Paul 16% (on DRUDGE)

[KramerDSP]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

[bluesc]

BS.

[LibertyEsq]

if Gingrich implodes, Romney doesn't stand a chance

[european]

the website is down

[SchleckBros]

FoxNews just showed this poll and Gingrich had 30% while Paul had 14%. I'm confused.

[KingNothing]

That's fine. Gingrich will be the talk of the table in Republican families this Thanksgiving.

Anyone want to take bets on whether he'll be discussed over Christmas dinner at those same tables?

[IndianaPolitico]

Not too bad actually. Went up 4 points from their last poll, and we are the highest we have ever been in their survey. Perry has dropped like a rock, and so has Bachmann. Santorum has gone up a bit though.

[mwkaufman]

It's important to note that American Research Group has far from a sterling record in the Iowa caucus. In their poll covering the three days before the Democratic caucus, they had Clinton winning by 9 points. Obama won by 7. They definitely missed the entirety of the voting population last time around, and if Paul is attracting new supporters the way Obama did, it's quite plausible that they're missing the entirety of the voting population this time too.

[SchleckBros]

FoxNews just showed this poll and Gingrich had 30% while Paul had 14%. I'm confused.

I figured it out. FoxNews purposely included Republicans and not Independents so they can give Gingrich higher poll #s.

[Johnnybags]

Awesome news, registered republicans, and we know we win with independents. I say Romney is toast in Iowa and its a Gingrich/Paul race in Iowa. LOL, Mitt is losing his mind. Not bad at all to get 16% of the neocons.

[KingNothing]

It's important to note that American Research Group has far from a sterling record in the Iowa caucus. In their poll covering the three days before the Democratic caucus, they had Clinton winning by 9 points. Obama won by 7. They definitely missed the entirety of the voting population last time around, and if Paul is attracting new supporters the way Obama did, it's quite plausible that they're missing the entirety of the voting population this time too.

I bet they more heavily weight the importance of older voters than some other pollsters do.

[RecoveringNeoCon]

Down the stretch we go folks! The Iowa debates in December must be used to halt Gingrich. After Gingrich and Paul went at it regarding the Patriot Act, I think now would be a perfect time to continue to expose Gingrich over the duration of the next few weeks.

The National ABC News debate on December 10th, and the Fox News Debate on the 15th will be crucial. Not to mention, the two forums that Mike Huck is hosting in December will be a solid chance to increase the social conservative vote. Its comin' down to it.......




Phone Bank!!

[IndianaPolitico]

Gingrich will fall, just like all of the others have. Perry and Bachmann have both dropped by 9 points in one month. From the looks of this poll, Cain is now where he was a month ago. 6%.

[Naraku]

This is a great poll that demonstrates the legitimacy of several prior polls. Look at the criteria and see where the "definite" caucus voters go. It isn't as good as the RevPAC poll, but like most other polls it excludes the likely Blue Republican vote (Democrats who will cross over to vote for Paul).

[TomtheTinker]

good good..16% is solid

[jkob]

It's not that bad of a poll, Ron is clearly surging in Iowa. 16% is a lot better than 10% or whatever a lot of polls had us sitting at before. Gingrich's support is soft and can't be held and Romney can't seem to break 20%. No time to get discouraged. As said, a lot of it has to do with who they're polling.

[ctiger2]

When Gingrich implodes... Romney doesn't stand a chance anyway


Fixed

[trey4sports]

Awesome news, registered republicans, and we know we win with independents. I say Romney is toast in Iowa and its a Gingrich/Paul race in Iowa. LOL, Mitt is losing his mind. Not bad at all to get 16% of the neocons.

Romney is going to compete in Iowa per latest reports. It will be Romney vs. Paul in Iowa.

[KingRobbStark]

I like this number, and most of the old folks who support the media figureheads will probably die before the election anyway.

[Echoes]

Gingrich is just the flavor of the month after Cain went down. He WILL fall, there's no chance he wins IOWA. He's got so much shit on him, it aint even funny. We need to focus our energy on the rat romney.

[kylejack]

This is a pretty good poll. 16% is solid. I had a feeling Gingrich was going to inherit many of the Cain voters. No matter, Gingrich might be their last conservative option. Now we just have to take him down and voters will have to choose between liberal Romney and Ron Paul.

We know many of them hate Paul's foreign policy views...but can they afford to have Mitt destroy the small government credibility of the party?

[Jeremy]

BS.
???

[specsaregood]

but can they afford to have Mitt destroy the small government credibility of the party?

Lookie, kylejack made a funny.

[TheDrakeMan]

I think this is great news. Now that Gingrich is the frontrunner, all the candidates will attack him along with the media. Same way they did with Cain. Expect it to be between Romney & Paul shortly.

[kylejack]

Lookie, kylejack made a funny.
That's the scary part.

[acptulsa]

I figured it out. FoxNews purposely included Republicans and not Independents so they can give Gingrich higher poll #s.

One thousand GE, KBR and Boeing stockholders were surveyed...

Cool. This should work for us. Time to convert Blue Republicans so they can vote in the primaries. Gingrich is just the scary boogieman we need to get them motivated to re-register.

Repeat after me: 'You don't want a President Gingrich, do you? Well, I don't think Paul is evil at all. But even if you do from your liberal perspective, surely you agree that he's the lesser of these evils?'

[FSP-Rebel]

When Paul takes IA we all know that the Foxheads will say that liberals slammed the polls for us. Either way, momentum will be had.

[trey4sports]

I think this is great news. Now that Gingrich is the frontrunner, all the candidates will attack him along with the media. Same way they did with Cain. Expect it to be between Romney & Paul shortly.


The problem is that I expect his base to rally around Romney rather than Paul. Newt staying in further divides that GOP base, IMO.

[LibertyAirwaves]

Not too bad when in a key state 16% and 3rd is our "bad poll".

[Brett85]

Not bad at all to get 16% of the neocons.

How do you know that every single Republican voter in Iowa is a "neocon?"

I don't see how anybody who supports Ron Paul could actually be a "neocon."

[TulsaRevolution]

I think Fox News gets its numbers from an exit poll given to people after their purchases of Factor gear from BillO's website. Written by Frank Luntz of course.

[kylejack]

Not too bad when in a key state 16% and 3rd is our "bad poll".
Well, there's a couple 10%s floating around as well. 16% is pretty solid. That's a wide base of support.

[pauliticalfan]

Well, at least we're going up. Also, we're at 28% among independents. Getting independents out to caucus for us is really important. Also, at least we're second among definite caucus goers at the moment. Again, this is merely one poll. There are three others that show us doing better.

[Brett85]

This is a very good poll for Ron. Unfortunately, RCP will probably have Ron's numbers at 14%, since they likely won't include independents.

[acptulsa]

How do you know that every single Republican voter in Iowa is a "neocon?"

I don't think he's saying that. I think he's saying something along these lines:


I think Fox News gets its numbers from an exit poll given to people after their purchases of Factor gear from BillO's website. Written by Frank Luntz of course.

:)

[trey4sports]

I think Fox News gets its numbers from an exit poll given to people after their purchases of Factor gear from BillO's website. Written by Frank Luntz of course.


lolz +rep

[trey4sports]

www.phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/login.php

do it

[specsaregood]

Well, there's a couple 10%s floating around as well. 16% is pretty solid. That's a wide base of support.

As suggested in other threads, you'll see these polls start to move up to as we near the 30day window where polling accuracy is rated....

[EBounding]

He's above 15%. That's been the insurmountable threshold. It's only a matter of time...

[Zydeco]

This poll is totally fine with me. Let Gingrich sit up top for a couple of weeks before he goes the way of Bachmann, Perry and Cain before him. The key point is that RP is in solid double digits in Iowa on every poll these days. We know the numbers will be better on election day due to the I's and D's crossing over, plus the general anti-Paul bias of the polls.

[TulsaRevolution]

Not bad at all to get 16% of the neocons.

The use of the term "neocons" to refer to regular people inspired me to start this thread:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?332269-Stop-Calling-Regular-People-NEOCONS!-Neoconservatism-is-an-elite-hijacking.

Educate yourself. Neocons are the ones playing all different types of conservatives as fools. Don't blame the people. These are a specific group of liberal globlists that we should all be against.

[JohnGalt23g]

Well, at least we're going up. Also, we're at 28% among independents. Getting independents out to caucus for us is really important. Also, at least we're second among definite caucus goers at the moment. Again, this is merely one poll. There are three others that show us doing better.

Getting all our people out, GOP and Independent is the key, and is why even with these numbers, I think we would probably win if the caucus was held today. Gingrich doesn't have an organization, and Mitt's is laying dormant.

Now whether Gingrich can build one in six weeks, and whether Mitt can energize his... that's the question.

[KramerDSP]

I don't understand why this thread got one star. 16% is GREAT! We're right where we want to be. Not quite at the very top, but hovering right there.

[Uriah]

3rd place, ARG shows a steady increase for Paul overtime. This is good. The only other candidate that could enter top 3 is undecided. Focus on Gingrich and Romney supporters. As well as though undecideds.